McCade Brown
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 247 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.5 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 103 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132122vR 113
ERA4.94
FIP4.99
K%22.4%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%9.5%
ROS IP103
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p3623.3%
K%
p2318.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.384
SI (57%)
CU (18%)
CH (6%)
SL-2.6 (19%)
FB-5.5 (57%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 75% | 2.0 | 25.7% | 8.6% | 17.1% | 5.7% | 6.75 | 5.15 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 75% | 2.0 | 25.7% | 8.6% | 17.1% | 5.7% | 6.75 | 5.22 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 18 | 18 | 90 | 380 | 118 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.0% | 7.1% | 15.8% | 3.8% | 5.22 | 4.16 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 18 | 18 | 90 | 380 | 118 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 5.0 | 31.1% | 6.1% | 25.0% | 2.6% | 5.22 | 2.69 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 24 | 116 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 83% | 2.0 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 6.85 | 8.03 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 10 | 24 | 116 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 83% | 2.0 | 30.2% | 14.7% | 15.5% | 4.3% | 6.85 | 5.04 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 102 | 432 | 128 | 47 | 12 | 100% | 3.8 | 24.6% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 2.4% | 3.69 | 3.82 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 27 | 102 | 432 | 128 | 47 | 12 | 100% | 3.8 | 29.6% | 10.9% | 18.8% | 2.8% | 3.69 | 3.50 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 78 | 45 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 13.0% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.99 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 122 | 516 | 117 | 64 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.6% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.90 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 120 | 509 | 115 | 62 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.88 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 117 | 494 | 110 | 59 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.4% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.94 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 112 | 471 | 103 | 57 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 5.00 | 5.08 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 105 | 443 | 93 | 55 | 16 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.1% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 5.17 | 5.29 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | COL | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 56 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 12.4% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 5.15 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 76 | 41 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.5% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.13 | 5.15 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 90 | 380 | 85 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 5.17 | 5.22 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 92 | 388 | 85 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 5.29 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 91 | 384 | 81 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 5.48 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 76 | 438 | 1866 | 406 | 230 | 74 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 5.38 | 5.00 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 852 | 185 | 105 | 34 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.8% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 5.38 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 58 | 224 | 963 | 227 | 96 | 37 | 95% | 3.7 | 23.5% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 4.75 | 4.51 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 52 | 200 | 861 | 203 | 86 | 33 | 95% | 3.7 | 23.5% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 3.9% | 4.75 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| McCade Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.99 | 22.4% | 13.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.91 | 22.5% | 10.3% | 360 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Luis Quiñones R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 23.5% | 17.5% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.91 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 160 | +0.18 | 3.93 | 323 | 74 |
| Luke Gabrysh R 2024 · 5.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.55 | 21.8% | 13.7% | 4.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 138 | 74 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 73 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 73 |
| Justin Dunn R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.48 | 22.5% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .231 | 5.99 | 16.1% | 3.2% | 60 | +1.51 | 3.51 | 601 | 73 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 73 |
| Steven Zobac R 2026 · 5.96 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.96 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 5.2% | .214 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 277 | 72 |
| Trace Bright R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 4.3% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 373 | 72 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 72 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .283 | 4.15 | 18.9% | 11.0% | 79 | -0.49 | 3.87 | 247 | 72 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 71 |
| Cory Lewis R 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.34 | 19.5% | 14.7% | 3.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 284 | 70 |
| Trent Sellers R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.46 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .290 | 5.09 | 23.5% | 9.3% | 58 | +0.63 | 3.39 | 236 | 70 |
| Shane McCarthy R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.81 | 18.9% | 11.9% | 5.1% | .240 | 8.89 | 14.3% | 3.9% | 18 | +3.08 | 2.07 | 117 | 70 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .336 | 5.07 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +0.89 | 4.18 | 144 | 70 |
| Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.50 | 21.0% | 12.2% | 4.8% | .320 | 4.16 | 23.1% | 13.2% | 138 | -1.34 | 3.45 | 292 | 70 |
| Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | .357 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 2.6% | 77 | +0.20 | 3.98 | 270 | 70 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 70 |
| Brooks Auger R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 26.3% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 138 | 70 |
| Ricky Salinas R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.22 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 4.7% | .335 | 5.81 | 14.3% | -0.8% | 71 | +0.59 | 4.87 | 274 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 110 | 22.1% | 12.3% | 1.29 | 4.95 |
| Chad Kuhl ('24) | 8 | 84 | 20.0% | 10.4% | 1.31 | 4.98 |
| Zack Godley ('20) | 6 | 94 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 1.13 | 4.86 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |
| Héctor Santiago ('21) | 6 | 99 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 1.56 | 4.48 |
| Francisco Liriano ('19) | 5 | 130 | 22.3% | 11.2% | 1.09 | 4.30 |