McCade Brown

P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 247 lbs AA peak 0.5 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AASPIL-6040-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	21	ACOL	18	18	90	5.22	2.69	31.1%	6.1%	—	K 23.0% · BB 7.1% · FIP 4.05
2024	23	MIX2 levels	12	10	24	6.85	5.04	30.2%	14.7%	—	K 20.8% · BB 13.3% · FIP 8.04
2025	24	MIX3 levels	27	27	102	3.69	3.50	29.6%	10.9%	2.3	K 24.6% · BB 11.7% · FIP 3.99
2026	25	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	26	MLBCOL	1	1	7	4.95	5.00	22.4%	12.7%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	27	MLBCOL	7	7	43	4.93	4.97	22.4%	12.3%	0.2
2029PROJ63% MLB	28	MLBCOL	9	9	56	4.95	5.00	22.2%	12.1%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo47

K%23

xwOBA vs10

CompsNic Swanson (age 25) · Nolan McLean (age 23) · David Lebron (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.95

FIP5.00

K%22.4%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP74

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 74 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.384

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	4	3	8	35	9	3	2	75%	2.0	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	5.7%	6.75	5.15	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	4	3	8	35	9	3	2	75%	2.0	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	5.7%	6.75	5.22	—
2022	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	18	18	90	380	118	23	10	100%	5.0	23.0%	7.1%	15.8%	3.6%	5.22	4.05	—
2022	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	18	18	90	380	118	23	10	100%	5.0	31.1%	6.1%	25.0%	2.6%	5.22	2.69	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	24	116	35	17	5	83%	2.0	20.8%	13.3%	7.5%	9.1%	6.85	8.04	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	24	116	35	17	5	83%	2.0	20.8%	13.3%	7.5%	9.1%	6.85	8.04	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	24	116	35	17	5	83%	2.0	30.2%	14.7%	15.5%	4.3%	6.85	5.04	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	102	432	128	47	12	100%	3.8	24.6%	11.7%	12.8%	2.7%	3.69	3.99	+1.7
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	102	432	128	47	12	100%	3.8	24.6%	11.7%	12.8%	2.7%	3.69	3.99	+1.7
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	102	432	128	47	12	100%	3.8	29.6%	10.9%	18.8%	2.8%	3.69	3.50	+2.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	7	26	126	23	17	6	100%	3.7	18.3%	13.5%	4.8%	4.8%	7.36	6.33	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	COL	1	1	7	30	7	4	1	100%	7.0	22.4%	12.7%	9.7%	3.3%	4.95	5.00	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	100	422	94	52	14	100%	5.9	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.93	4.97	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	89	375	83	45	13	100%	5.9	22.2%	12.1%	10.1%	3.4%	4.95	5.00	+0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	80	338	73	41	12	100%	6.2	21.6%	12.1%	9.5%	3.5%	5.04	5.12	+0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	71	301	63	37	11	100%	5.9	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	3.7%	5.19	5.31	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	7	7	43	182	41	22	6	100%	6.1	22.4%	12.3%	10.1%	3.3%	4.93	4.97	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	56	236	53	29	8	100%	6.2	22.2%	12.1%	10.1%	3.4%	4.95	5.00	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	53	30	9	100%	5.8	21.6%	12.1%	9.5%	3.5%	5.04	5.12	+0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	57	241	50	30	9	100%	5.7	20.9%	12.3%	8.6%	3.7%	5.19	5.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	43	239	1026	219	127	37	100%	5.6	21.3%	12.4%	9.0%	3.6%	5.28	4.87	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	859	183	106	31	100%	5.6	21.3%	12.4%	9.0%	3.6%	5.28	4.87	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		61	58	224	963	227	96	38	95%	3.7	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.9%	4.75	4.54	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	52	200	861	203	86	34	95%	3.7	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.9%	4.75	4.54	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 43 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.27 (+0.59)K% 33.5% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.53%	—	×0.810	27.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.100	9.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.35%	÷1.255	×1.200	2.25%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Spokane Indians · 34 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.42 (+1.10)K% 35.3% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.29%	—	×0.770	27.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.03%	—	×1.150	12.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷0.999	×1.250	1.84%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFresno Grizzlies · 15 IPFIP 6.01 → 8.04 (+2.02)K% 28.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.17%	—	×0.740	20.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.27%	—	×1.180	13.30%
HR / BF /BF	7.04%	÷1.002	×1.300	9.13%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.01 → 8.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Rockies · 9 IPFIP 2.82 → 4.35 (+1.53)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×1.250	25.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.044	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.82 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AFresno Grizzlies · 90 IPFIP 2.69 → 4.05 (+1.36)K% 31.1% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.05%	—	×0.740	22.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.05%	—	×1.180	7.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.947	×1.300	3.61%

Result: FIP 2.69 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Rockies · 8 IPFIP 5.15 → 7.25 (+2.10)K% 25.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.71%	—	×0.680	17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×1.250	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	5.71%	÷1.029	×1.400	7.77%

Result: FIP 5.15 → 7.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
McCade Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	5.02	22.1%	9.9%	269	+0.02	—	—	—
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	78
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	77
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	77
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	76
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	76
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	75
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	74
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	74
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	74
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	73
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	73
Justin Armbruester R 2024 · 5.73 FIP	25	SP	5.73	20.2%	11.1%	5.3%	.289	1.49	27.5%	21.9%	15	-4.24	1.49	373	72
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	72
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	72
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	72
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	71
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	71
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	71
Jimmy Lambert R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	25.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.276	5.13	20.8%	10.0%	114	+0.43	3.43	526	71
Ben Meyer R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	26	SP	5.58	19.4%	13.1%	4.5%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	387	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	75	21.7%	12.4%	1.36	5.14
Jack Kucek ('74-'80, -2 WAR*)	1.0	51	20.4%*	11.8%*	1.44*	5.37*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Frank Kreutzer ('62-'69, -1 WAR*)	1.1	70	20.0%*	11.6%*	1.21*	5.31*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87