McCade Brown — OGILVIE

McCade Brown P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 247 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.6 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA4.99

FIP5.06

K%22.4%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL2540

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p3623.3%

p2318.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.384

SI (57%)

CU (18%)

CH (6%)

SL-2.6 (19%)

FB-5.5 (57%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.209 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-2M	-$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	4	3	8	35	9	3	2	75%	2.0	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	5.7%	6.75	5.15	—
2021	20	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	4	3	8	35	9	3	2	75%	2.0	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	5.7%	6.75	5.22	—
2022	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	18	18	90	380	118	23	10	100%	5.0	23.0%	7.1%	15.8%	3.6%	5.22	4.05	—
2022	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	18	18	90	380	118	23	10	100%	5.0	31.1%	6.1%	25.0%	2.6%	5.22	2.69	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	24	116	35	17	5	83%	2.0	20.8%	13.3%	7.5%	9.1%	6.85	8.04	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	10	24	116	35	17	5	83%	2.0	20.8%	13.3%	7.5%	9.1%	6.85	8.04	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	10	24	116	35	17	5	83%	2.0	30.2%	14.7%	15.5%	4.3%	6.85	5.04	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	102	432	128	47	12	100%	3.8	24.6%	11.7%	12.8%	2.7%	3.69	3.99	+1.1
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	27	102	432	128	47	12	100%	3.8	24.6%	11.7%	12.8%	2.7%	3.69	3.99	+1.1
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	27	102	432	128	47	12	100%	3.8	29.6%	10.9%	18.8%	2.8%	3.69	3.50	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	7	26	126	23	17	6	100%	3.7	18.3%	13.5%	4.8%	4.8%	7.36	6.33	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	COL	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	22.4%	12.9%	9.5%	3.3%	4.99	5.06	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	122	516	117	64	17	100%	6.1	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	3.3%	4.93	4.95	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	120	509	115	61	17	100%	6.0	22.5%	12.1%	10.5%	3.3%	4.91	4.94	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	117	494	110	59	17	100%	6.2	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.4%	4.94	4.99	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	112	471	103	57	17	100%	5.9	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	3.6%	5.04	5.13	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	105	443	93	55	17	100%	6.2	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	3.8%	5.22	5.34	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	59	249	56	31	10	100%	5.9	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	3.8%	5.21	5.23	-0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	80	338	76	41	13	100%	6.2	22.5%	12.1%	10.5%	3.8%	5.19	5.22	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	90	380	85	46	15	100%	6.0	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	3.9%	5.23	5.28	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	92	388	85	47	16	100%	6.1	21.8%	12.1%	9.7%	4.1%	5.34	5.43	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	91	384	81	48	17	100%	6.1	21.1%	12.4%	8.7%	4.3%	5.53	5.65	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		76	76	438	1866	406	229	76	100%	5.8	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	4.1%	5.43	5.05	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	852	185	105	35	100%	5.8	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	4.1%	5.43	5.05	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		61	58	224	963	227	96	38	95%	3.7	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.9%	4.75	4.54	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	52	200	861	203	86	34	95%	3.7	23.5%	10.0%	13.5%	3.9%	4.75	4.54	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
McCade Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	22.4%	12.9%	3.3%	—	4.96	22.5%	10.4%	360	-0.10	—	—	—
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	78
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	76
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	75
Will Bednar R 2022 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP	5.71	20.5%	14.1%	4.7%	.173	4.78	26.6%	6.3%	95	-0.93	3.38	198	75
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.83	22.0%	10.4%	160	+0.06	3.75	326	74
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	73
Shane McCarthy R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	25	SP	5.47	18.9%	11.9%	4.5%	.240	8.32	14.3%	3.9%	18	+2.85	2.07	117	73
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	73
Justin Dunn R 2021 · 4.44 FIP	25	SP	4.44	22.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.231	6.06	16.1%	3.2%	60	+1.62	3.54	607	72
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	72
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	72
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	72
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	72
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	72
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	72
Cam Schlittler R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	22	SP	4.80	17.6%	13.8%	2.6%	.330	3.01	27.8%	19.2%	447	-1.79	2.38	488	72
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	71
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	71
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	71
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	4.00	23.2%	11.3%	197	-1.56	3.60	269	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	115	22.2%	12.3%	1.33	5.00
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32