Riley Gowens — OGILVIE

Riley Gowens P Charlotte Knights

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%22.4%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4045

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	3	16	61	22	6	0	60%	3.1	36.1%	9.8%	26.2%	0.0%	1.15	1.30	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	3	16	61	22	6	0	60%	3.1	36.1%	9.8%	26.2%	0.0%	1.15	1.30	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	3	16	61	22	6	0	60%	3.1	36.1%	9.8%	26.2%	0.0%	1.15	1.44	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	505	145	46	13	100%	4.9	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.7%	3.84	4.55	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	505	145	46	13	100%	4.9	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.7%	3.84	4.55	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	122	505	145	46	13	100%	4.9	28.7%	9.1%	19.6%	2.6%	3.84	3.24	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	132	546	151	49	12	100%	4.9	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	3.4%	3.34	4.30	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	132	546	151	49	12	100%	4.9	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	3.4%	3.34	4.30	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	27	27	132	546	151	49	12	100%	4.9	27.7%	9.0%	18.7%	2.2%	3.34	3.11	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	25	2	46	196	45	14	7	8%	1.9	17.4%	7.0%	10.4%	3.8%	4.66	4.62	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	25	2	46	196	45	14	7	8%	1.9	17.4%	7.0%	10.4%	3.8%	4.66	4.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	CWS	3	0	5	21	8	1	1	0%	1.7	38.1%	4.8%	33.3%	4.8%	7.20	3.10	—
2026	26	AA RAW	CWS	7	2	14	56	14	3	1	29%	2.0	25.0%	5.4%	19.6%	1.8%	2.63	2.65	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CWS	15	0	28	119	23	10	5	0%	1.8	19.3%	8.4%	10.9%	4.2%	5.20	4.84	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	27	6	3	1	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.0%	12.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.60	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	53	223	51	17	8	—	—	22.9%	7.5%	15.4%	3.5%	4.65	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	117	494	111	48	16	100%	6.2	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	3.2%	4.59	4.60	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	19	19	114	479	106	47	16	100%	6.0	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	3.3%	4.62	4.66	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	18	18	108	458	101	45	16	100%	6.0	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	3.4%	4.70	4.77	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	CWS	17	17	102	430	93	44	16	100%	6.0	21.6%	10.2%	11.5%	3.6%	4.84	4.94	-0.0
2031	31	MLB MLE	CWS	16	16	95	401	85	42	15	100%	5.9	21.2%	10.5%	10.7%	3.9%	5.02	5.14	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	8	8	50	211	47	21	7	100%	6.2	22.4%	9.8%	12.6%	3.3%	4.62	4.63	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	12	12	71	300	67	29	10	100%	5.9	22.2%	9.8%	12.4%	3.4%	4.65	4.69	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	79	334	73	33	12	100%	6.1	22.0%	9.9%	12.1%	3.5%	4.73	4.80	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	81	342	74	35	13	100%	6.2	21.6%	10.2%	11.5%	3.7%	4.87	4.97	-0.0
2031	31	MLB CTX	CWS	13	13	80	338	72	36	13	100%	6.2	21.2%	10.5%	10.7%	3.9%	5.06	5.18	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	362	1528	334	154	55	100%	6.0	21.8%	10.1%	11.8%	3.6%	4.81	4.50	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	185	85	30	99%	6.0	21.8%	10.1%	11.8%	3.6%	4.81	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		82	57	316	1308	292	126	45	70%	3.9	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.4%	3.62	4.31	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	36	200	828	185	79	28	70%	3.9	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.4%	3.62	4.31	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Gowens (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	22.4%	10.0%	3.2%	—	4.67	22.2%	12.3%	339	+0.07	—	—	—
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Luis Santos R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	19.7%	9.7%	3.8%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.83	3.53	472	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	80
TJ Shook R 2023 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	21.0%	9.6%	3.6%	.273	4.07	21.2%	12.4%	191	-0.44	3.35	451	80
Kutter Crawford R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP-	4.47	21.9%	7.7%	4.1%	.316	4.15	24.1%	17.4%	313	-0.32	3.30	741	78
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	78
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	78
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	78
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.89	16.8%	8.8%	186	+1.91	3.98	418	78
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	78
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	78
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	77
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	77
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	77
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	77
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	76
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	76
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	104	22.0%	10.0%	1.33	4.72
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98