Riley Gowens

P Charlotte Knights

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	25	25	122	3.84	3.24	28.7%	9.1%	—	K 22.6% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.55
2025	25	AACWS	27	27	132	3.34	3.11	27.7%	9.0%	—	K 22.4% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.30
2026	26	MIX3 levels	25	2	46	4.66	4.03	23.0%	7.1%	—	K 17.8% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.59
2027PROJ	27	MLBCWS	1	1	6	4.70	4.70	20.5%	9.0%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCWS	4	4	23	4.71	4.74	20.6%	9.2%	0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBCWS	5	5	30	4.78	4.84	20.6%	9.4%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Aaron Northcraft (age 26) · Nick Payero (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%20.5%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	3	16	61	22	6	0	60%	3.1	36.1%	9.8%	26.2%	0.0%	1.15	1.30	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	3	16	61	22	6	0	60%	3.1	36.1%	9.8%	26.2%	0.0%	1.15	1.44	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	505	145	46	13	100%	4.9	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.7%	3.84	4.55	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	122	505	145	46	13	100%	4.9	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.7%	3.84	4.55	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	122	505	145	46	13	100%	4.9	28.7%	9.1%	19.6%	2.6%	3.84	3.24	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	132	546	151	49	12	100%	4.9	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	3.4%	3.34	4.30	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	27	27	132	546	151	49	12	100%	4.9	22.4%	9.9%	12.5%	3.4%	3.34	4.30	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	27	27	132	546	151	49	12	100%	4.9	27.7%	9.0%	18.7%	2.2%	3.34	3.11	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	46	196	45	14	7	8%	1.9	17.8%	7.0%	10.8%	3.8%	4.66	4.59	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	2	46	196	45	14	7	8%	1.9	17.8%	7.0%	10.8%	3.8%	4.66	4.59	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	2	46	196	45	14	7	8%	1.9	23.0%	7.1%	15.8%	3.6%	4.66	4.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CWS	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.0%	11.4%	3.3%	4.70	4.70	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	55	233	48	21	8	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.2%	11.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.74	+0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	CWS	8	8	50	212	44	20	7	100%	6.3	20.6%	9.4%	11.2%	3.5%	4.78	4.84	+0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	4	4	23	97	20	9	3	100%	5.8	20.6%	9.2%	11.4%	3.4%	4.71	4.74	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	CWS	5	5	30	127	26	12	4	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.4%	11.2%	3.5%	4.78	4.84	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	53	224	46	21	8	100%	5.9	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	3.4%	4.75	4.42	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	79	30	100%	6.0	20.6%	9.3%	11.3%	3.4%	4.75	4.42	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		82	57	316	1308	293	126	45	70%	3.9	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.4%	3.62	4.30	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	36	200	828	186	79	28	70%	3.9	22.4%	9.6%	12.8%	3.4%	3.62	4.30	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 28 IPFIP 4.84 → 5.19 (+0.35)K% 19.3% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.33%	—	×0.860	16.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.40%	—	×0.900	7.56%
HR / BF /BF	4.20%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.84 → 5.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABirmingham Barons · 14 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.31 (+0.66)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.36%	—	×1.100	5.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 5 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.58 (+1.48)K% 38.1% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.10%	—	×0.770	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.150	5.48%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.95%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABirmingham Barons · 132 IPFIP 3.11 → 4.30 (+1.20)K% 27.7% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.66%	—	×0.810	22.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.97%	—	×1.100	9.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷0.784	×1.200	3.36%

Result: FIP 3.11 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 70 IPFIP 3.48 → 5.17 (+1.70)K% 30.2% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.25%	—	×0.770	23.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.25%	—	×1.150	10.64%
HR / BF /BF	3.20%	÷0.817	×1.250	4.90%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABirmingham Barons · 52 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.77 (+0.82)K% 26.8% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.79%	—	×0.810	21.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×1.100	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.935	×1.200	2.29%

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAugusta GreenJackets · 9 IPFIP 0.78 → 1.93 (+1.14)K% 41.9% → 31.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.94%	—	×0.740	31.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×1.180	11.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.976	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 0.78 → 1.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Braves · 7 IPFIP 1.83 → 2.96 (+1.13)K% 30.0% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.680	20.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.250	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.893	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 79).

Result: FIP 1.83 → 2.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Gowens (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.79	20.6%	11.3%	105	+0.09	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	82
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	78
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	77
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	75
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	75
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	75
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	75
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	74
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	74
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	74
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	235	74
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	73
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	73
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	73
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	73
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	72
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.47	18.6%	9.0%	205	+0.03	4.04	577	72
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	72
Kyle Lloyd R 2018 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	18.2%	9.8%	2.6%	.336	4.75	17.2%	9.3%	110	+0.52	3.50	572	72
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	20.6%	9.2%	1.30	4.73
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*