Riley Gowens
P
Birmingham Barons
+1.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.0 · 2026
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.0%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 5 | 3 | 16 | 61 | 22 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.15 | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 25 | 25 | 122 | 505 | 145 | 46 | 13 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | 3.84 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 27 | 27 | 132 | 546 | 151 | 49 | 12 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 3.34 | 4.35 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 5 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.68 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 115 | 49 | 16 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 127 | 536 | 125 | 50 | 16 | 23.3% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.31 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 118 | 50 | 17 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 117 | 49 | 17 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.55 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 114 | 48 | 17 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 110 | 47 | 16 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 105 | 46 | 16 | 22.0% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.71 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 99 | 45 | 16 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 93 | 44 | 16 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 4.90 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 87 | 42 | 15 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 4.94 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 81 | 41 | 15 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 5.05 | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 74 | 39 | 14 | 20.2% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 5.18 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 62 | 55 | 277 | 1141 | 268 | 113 | 38 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 3.44 | 4.22 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 40 | 200 | 824 | 194 | 82 | 27 | 23.5% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 3.44 | 4.22 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Gowens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.56 | 22.5% | 13.0% | 367 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 88 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2023 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 86 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .262 | 3.93 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -0.85 | 3.50 | 472 | 86 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 85 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 84 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 83 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 82 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 82 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 82 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.86 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 73 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 180 | 81 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 81 |
| Mat Latos R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 81 |
| K.C. Hunt R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 223 | 81 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 81 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 81 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.65 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .262 | 3.09 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.56 | 3.09 | 137 | 81 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 80 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.16 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 3.6% | .317 | 3.35 | 22.2% | 15.7% | 50 | -0.81 | 3.35 | 394 | 80 |
| Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 80 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 420 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$8M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.8 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $9M | $30M | +$22M | ||