Riley Gowens
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 26
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 90 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130120vR 111
ERA4.90
FIP4.90
K%22.4%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%12.5%
ROS IP90
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 3 | 16 | 61 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 60% | 3.1 | 36.1% | 9.8% | 26.2% | 0.0% | 1.15 | 1.30 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 3 | 16 | 61 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 60% | 3.1 | 36.1% | 9.8% | 26.2% | 0.0% | 1.15 | 1.44 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 122 | 505 | 145 | 46 | 13 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 4.6% | 3.84 | 5.02 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 122 | 505 | 145 | 46 | 13 | 100% | 4.9 | 28.7% | 9.1% | 19.6% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 3.24 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 27 | 27 | 132 | 546 | 151 | 49 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 4.6% | 3.34 | 5.01 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 27 | 27 | 132 | 546 | 151 | 49 | 12 | 100% | 4.9 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 18.7% | 2.2% | 3.34 | 3.11 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 20 | 0 | 36 | 150 | 33 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 4.54 | 5.32 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 85 | 38 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | CWS | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 126 | 530 | 118 | 49 | 19 | — | — | 22.3% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 5.02 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 4.90 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 15 | 15 | 89 | 375 | 84 | 37 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.87 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 14 | 86 | 363 | 81 | 35 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 4.87 | 4.91 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | CWS | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 4.86 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 51 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 4.87 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 15 | 101 | 424 | 95 | 41 | 16 | 62% | 4.2 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 4.87 | 4.51 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 30 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 82 | 32 | 64% | 4.3 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 4.87 | 4.51 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 77 | 55 | 305 | 1262 | 284 | 125 | 56 | 71% | 4.0 | 22.5% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 3.57 | 4.87 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 36 | 200 | 827 | 186 | 82 | 36 | 71% | 4.0 | 22.5% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 3.57 | 4.87 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Gowens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.7% | — | 4.89 | 22.3% | 12.5% | 175 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .262 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 472 | 83 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 82 |
| Kutter Crawford R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.08 | 24.1% | 17.4% | 313 | -0.39 | 3.35 | 741 | 80 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 79 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 78 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 76 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 76 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 76 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 75 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 75 |
| Sean Mooney R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.82 | 24.7% | 13.5% | 3.8% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 102 | 75 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.63 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | .317 | 3.95 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 87 | -0.68 | 3.36 | 432 | 75 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 75 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.43 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .277 | 4.89 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 52 | +0.46 | 2.52 | 826 | 74 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 4.92 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 116 | +0.26 | 2.20 | 286 | 74 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.64 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.74 | 459 | 74 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 73 |
| Will Schomberg R 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.84 | 23.3% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 73 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.65 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .319 | 4.96 | 18.4% | 6.6% | 242 | +0.31 | 4.39 | 353 | 73 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 88 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 1.45 | 4.88 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |
| Brandon McCarthy ('18) | 4 | 59 | 21.3% | 7.9% | 1.19 | 4.65 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |