Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 13 | 38 | 168 | 43 | 13 | 3 | 87% | 2.5 | 16.2% | 9.5% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 5.26 | 3.99 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 13 | 38 | 168 | 43 | 13 | 3 | 87% | 2.5 | 25.6% | 7.7% | 17.9% | 1.8% | 5.26 | 2.89 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 150 | 633 | 102 | 40 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 12.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 3.84 | 3.87 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 150 | 633 | 102 | 40 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.1% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 3.84 | 3.49 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 96 | 387 | 110 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 14.5% | 2.3% | 3.67 | 3.44 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 96 | 387 | 110 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 5.3 | 28.4% | 6.7% | 21.7% | 1.8% | 3.67 | 2.57 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 11 | 11 | 59 | 259 | 70 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 5.2% | 4.55 | 5.54 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 11 | 11 | 59 | 259 | 70 | 27 | 11 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.0% | 10.4% | 16.6% | 4.2% | 4.55 | 4.52 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.99 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 77 | 329 | 92 | 38 | 14 | 96% | 3.4 | 25.0% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 5.00 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 77 | 329 | 92 | 38 | 14 | 96% | 3.4 | 28.0% | 11.6% | 16.4% | 4.3% | 5.00 | 4.55 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 7 | 60 | 266 | 57 | 29 | 12 | 15% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 7 | 60 | 266 | 57 | 29 | 12 | 15% | 1.3 | 21.4% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 4.5% | 4.53 | 5.26 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 54 | 249 | 53 | 27 | 13 | 2% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 4.9% | 6.00 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 1 | 54 | 249 | 53 | 27 | 13 | 2% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 5.2% | 6.00 | 5.77 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.12 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | ROK | ACL White Sox | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 159 | 73 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 25 | 25 | 153 | 644 | 141 | 68 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.9% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.90 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 23 | 23 | 140 | 591 | 125 | 64 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 4.97 | 5.13 | +0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.9% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 63 | 32 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 4.97 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 25 | 216 | 935 | 203 | 100 | 35 | 25% | 2.1 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.64 | 4.67 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 95 | 24 | 200 | 866 | 188 | 93 | 32 | 25% | 2.1 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 4.64 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 194 | 100 | 538 | 2307 | 442 | 218 | 68 | 52% | 2.8 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.29 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 72 | 37 | 200 | 858 | 165 | 81 | 25 | 52% | 2.8 | 19.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jimmy Lambert (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 22.8% | 10.4% | 3.3% | — | 5.01 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 293 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.15 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 3.56 | 27.5% | 19.3% | 120 | -0.59 | 3.52 | 316 | 70 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 68 |
| Tom Koehler R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 68 |
| Dillon Gee R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 66 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 65 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.57 | 20.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .341 | 3.72 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 59 | -0.85 | 2.71 | 598 | 63 |
| Scott Copeland R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.72 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 4.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 569 | 61 |
| Jason Berken R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 60 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 59 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.73 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .237 | 4.51 | 14.4% | 1.1% | 56 | +0.78 | 3.73 | 725 | 59 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 59 |
| Jerome Williams R 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 59 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.58 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | .259 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 218 | +0.83 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 59 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 27.1% | 8.0% | 3.7% | .240 | 3.43 | 27.8% | 22.0% | 173 | -0.45 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 58 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.04 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.7% | .261 | 4.12 | 22.8% | 12.5% | 96 | +0.08 | 2.88 | 533 | 58 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.81 | 17.8% | 8.6% | 5.7% | .277 | 4.58 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 81 | -1.23 | 3.33 | 556 | 58 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 57 |
| Yohan Pino R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 57 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 55 |
| Casey Lawrence R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.92 | 18.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | .305 | 3.98 | 20.0% | 14.8% | 86 | +0.06 | 3.50 | 1,320 | 55 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 153 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |