M.D. Johnson

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	26	AAMIA	25	25	114	5.62	5.02	20.2%	11.5%	—	K 16.4% · BB 12.7% · FIP 5.64
2024	27	MIX2 levels	16	16	74	3.63	2.99	18.2%	8.8%	—	K 14.6% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.52
2025	28	AAMIA	2	0	3	3.00	8.43	23.1%	23.1%	—	K 23.1% · BB 23.1% · FIP 8.30
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBMIA	1	1	1	4.64	4.64	19.1%	9.6%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	31	MLBMIA	2	2	13	4.73	4.81	19.2%	9.9%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Tyler Herron (age 30) · Travis Smith (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%19.1%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	102	424	107	63	10	86%	4.8	19.1%	17.3%	1.7%	2.9%	2.83	5.30	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	102	424	107	63	10	86%	4.8	25.2%	14.9%	10.4%	2.4%	2.83	4.13	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	20	20	112	451	125	28	12	100%	5.6	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	3.8%	3.46	4.27	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	20	20	112	451	125	28	12	100%	5.6	27.7%	6.2%	21.5%	2.7%	3.46	3.01	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	25	25	114	495	100	57	19	100%	4.5	16.4%	12.7%	3.7%	4.2%	5.62	5.64	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	25	25	114	495	100	57	19	100%	4.5	20.2%	11.5%	8.7%	3.8%	5.62	5.02	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	74	340	62	30	2	100%	4.6	14.6%	9.9%	4.7%	0.7%	3.63	3.52	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	74	340	62	30	2	100%	4.6	14.6%	9.9%	4.7%	0.7%	3.63	3.52	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	74	340	62	30	2	100%	4.6	18.2%	8.8%	9.4%	0.6%	3.63	2.99	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	2	0	3	13	3	3	1	0%	1.5	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	7.7%	3.00	8.30	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	2	0	3	13	3	3	1	0%	1.5	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	7.7%	3.00	8.30	—
2025	28	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	2	0	3	13	3	3	1	0%	1.5	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	7.7%	3.00	8.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	MIA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	19.1%	9.6%	9.6%	2.9%	4.64	4.64	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	42	179	34	18	6	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.81	+0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIA	2	2	13	55	11	5	2	100%	6.5	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.81	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	13	56	11	6	2	100%	6.6	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.43	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	91	30	100%	6.0	19.2%	9.9%	9.3%	3.1%	4.73	4.43	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		84	79	405	1723	311	205	54	94%	4.8	18.0%	11.9%	6.1%	3.1%	3.94	4.80	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	39	200	852	154	101	27	94%	4.8	18.0%	11.9%	6.1%	3.1%	3.94	4.80	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 67 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.52 (+0.45)K% 18.0% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.01%	—	×0.810	14.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.00%	—	×1.100	9.90%
HR / BF /BF	0.64%	÷1.064	×1.200	0.72%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 7 IPFIP 2.23 → 2.84 (+0.61)K% 20.7% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.69%	—	×0.740	15.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.180	8.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.888	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.23 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 114 IPFIP 4.96 → 5.64 (+0.68)K% 20.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.20%	—	×0.810	16.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.52%	—	×1.100	12.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.84%	÷1.091	×1.200	4.22%

Result: FIP 4.96 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 112 IPFIP 3.01 → 4.27 (+1.26)K% 27.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.72%	—	×0.770	21.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.21%	—	×1.150	7.14%
HR / BF /BF	2.66%	÷0.885	×1.250	3.76%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 4.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Beloit Snappers · 59 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.95 (+0.94)K% 24.9% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.89%	—	×0.770	19.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.97%	—	×1.150	12.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.95%	÷1.082	×1.250	3.41%

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AJupiter Hammerheads · 42 IPFIP 4.32 → 5.74 (+1.42)K% 25.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.67%	—	×0.740	18.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.79%	—	×1.180	23.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷0.891	×1.300	2.34%

Result: FIP 4.32 → 5.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
M.D. Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	19.1%	9.6%	2.9%	—	4.81	19.2%	9.3%	42	+0.17	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	86
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	82
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	78
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	75
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	74
Michael Mariot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	30	SP	5.01	19.8%	11.1%	4.0%	.333	5.03	15.8%	7.4%	182	+0.02	2.40	701	72
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	72
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	71
David Hale R 2018 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP-	4.22	15.4%	7.5%	2.7%	.299	3.65	17.1%	11.3%	114	-0.57	3.30	581	71
Jorge Reyes R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	29	SP	3.61	13.4%	9.4%	0.8%	.326	8.46	6.8%	-0.1%	19	+4.85	3.39	227	71
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	71
Dennis O'Grady R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.2%	8.1%	1.7%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	70
Andres Ivan Meza R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	12.5%	8.5%	1.8%	.351	4.33	11.7%	4.0%	89	+0.19	4.14	275	70
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	70
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	69
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	69
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	68
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	68
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	68
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	44	19.2%	9.7%	1.15	4.68
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*