M.D. Johnson
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
+0.5
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.56
FIP4.56
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%10.1%
IP77
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Snappers | 21 | 18 | 102 | 424 | 107 | 63 | 10 | 19.1% | 17.3% | 2.9% | 2.83 | 5.29 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 20 | 20 | 112 | 451 | 125 | 28 | 12 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 3.46 | 4.29 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 25 | 25 | 114 | 495 | 100 | 57 | 19 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 4.2% | 5.62 | 5.63 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 16 | 16 | 74 | 340 | 62 | 30 | 2 | 14.6% | 9.9% | 0.7% | 3.63 | 3.52 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 65 | 32 | 9 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.56 | 4.56 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 64 | 32 | 9 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 62 | 31 | 9 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 293 | 59 | 30 | 9 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 55 | 29 | 9 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 52 | 28 | 8 | 19.4% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.85 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 48 | 27 | 8 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.96 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 44 | 26 | 8 | 18.6% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 5.09 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 84 | 79 | 405 | 1723 | 311 | 205 | 54 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 3.94 | 4.80 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 852 | 154 | 101 | 27 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 3.94 | 4.80 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| M.D. Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.56 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.66 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 217 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 90 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 90 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 88 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 87 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.44 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .348 | 2.85 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.59 | 2.85 | 199 | 86 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 86 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 86 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 85 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 85 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 85 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 84 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 84 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 83 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 83 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 83 |
| Gregory Infante R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.47 | 22.5% | 15.8% | 120 | -0.99 | 2.97 | 230 | 83 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 82 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 82 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.92 | 21.7% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .272 | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 62 | -0.30 | 3.62 | 224 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.