M.D. Johnson — OGILVIE

M.D. Johnson P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%16.8%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	102	424	107	63	10	86%	4.8	19.1%	17.3%	1.7%	2.9%	2.83	5.30	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	102	424	107	63	10	86%	4.8	25.2%	14.9%	10.4%	2.4%	2.83	4.13	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	20	20	112	451	125	28	12	100%	5.6	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	3.8%	3.46	4.27	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	20	20	112	451	125	28	12	100%	5.6	27.7%	6.2%	21.5%	2.7%	3.46	3.01	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	25	25	114	495	100	57	19	100%	4.5	16.4%	12.7%	3.7%	4.2%	5.62	5.64	—
2023	26	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	25	25	114	495	100	57	19	100%	4.5	16.4%	12.7%	3.7%	4.2%	5.62	5.64	—
2023	26	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	25	25	114	495	100	57	19	100%	4.5	20.2%	11.5%	8.7%	3.8%	5.62	5.02	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	74	340	62	30	2	100%	4.6	14.6%	9.9%	4.7%	0.7%	3.63	3.52	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	16	74	340	62	30	2	100%	4.6	14.6%	9.9%	4.7%	0.7%	3.63	3.52	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	16	74	340	62	30	2	100%	4.6	18.2%	8.8%	9.4%	0.6%	3.63	2.99	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	2	0	3	13	3	3	1	0%	1.5	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	7.7%	3.00	8.30	—
2025	28	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	2	0	3	13	3	3	1	0%	1.5	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	7.7%	3.00	8.30	—
2025	28	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	2	0	3	13	3	3	1	0%	1.5	23.1%	23.1%	0.0%	7.7%	3.00	8.43	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	MIA	1	1	4	17	3	2	0	100%	4.0	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	2.8%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	51	215	37	23	6	100%	6.4	17.1%	10.7%	6.3%	3.0%	4.96	5.03	-0.1
2028	31	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	48	201	34	22	6	100%	5.9	17.1%	11.0%	6.2%	3.2%	5.07	5.18	-0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	44	185	32	21	6	100%	6.3	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	3.4%	5.23	5.36	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	MIA	3	3	16	68	12	7	2	100%	5.3	17.1%	10.7%	6.3%	3.0%	4.96	5.03	-0.0
2028	31	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	24	101	17	11	3	100%	6.0	17.1%	11.0%	6.2%	3.2%	5.07	5.18	-0.1
2029	32	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	29	122	21	14	4	100%	5.8	17.0%	11.3%	5.7%	3.4%	5.23	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	11	69	291	50	32	9	100%	6.3	17.1%	11.0%	6.0%	3.3%	5.11	4.84	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	145	93	26	100%	6.0	17.1%	11.0%	6.0%	3.3%	5.11	4.84	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		84	79	405	1723	311	205	54	94%	4.8	18.0%	11.9%	6.1%	3.1%	3.94	4.80	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	39	200	852	154	101	27	94%	4.8	18.0%	11.9%	6.1%	3.1%	3.94	4.80	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
M.D. Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	16.8%	10.6%	2.8%	—	5.18	17.1%	6.1%	142	+0.26	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	87
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	80
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	79
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	79
Tyler Herron R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	29	SP	4.40	13.4%	6.9%	2.9%	.389	4.02	16.4%	7.7%	60	-0.38	4.02	117	77
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	76
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	76
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	76
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	76
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	75
Alfredo Aceves R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	32	SP	4.98	10.0%	6.2%	3.5%	.244	4.93	9.9%	2.0%	107	-0.05	4.78	160	75
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	74
Lucas Harrell R 2016 · 4.07 FIP	31	SP	4.07	15.7%	12.9%	1.2%	.310	3.57	16.2%	5.7%	30	-0.50	3.57	139	74
Josh Zeid R 2016 · 5.01 FIP	29	SP	5.01	15.4%	11.7%	3.2%	.278	5.35	18.3%	7.5%	102	+0.34	4.12	265	74
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	74
Marco Quevedo R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	29	SP	4.57	13.6%	6.2%	3.3%	.258	5.02	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.45	4.13	300	74
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	73
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	72
Tim Lincecum R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SP	4.20	18.0%	10.8%	2.3%	.296	5.02	17.4%	6.3%	89	+0.82	4.20	166	72
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	17.0%	10.9%	1.19	5.04
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77