M.D. Johnson
P
Pensacola Blue Wahoos
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 200 lbs
AA
peak 0.6 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
K%20.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%10.1%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 102 | 424 | 107 | 63 | 10 | 86% | 4.8 | 19.1% | 17.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.83 | 5.30 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 102 | 424 | 107 | 63 | 10 | 86% | 4.8 | 25.2% | 14.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 2.83 | 4.13 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 20 | 20 | 112 | 451 | 125 | 28 | 12 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 14.2% | 4.3% | 3.46 | 4.58 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 20 | 20 | 112 | 451 | 125 | 28 | 12 | 100% | 5.6 | 27.7% | 6.2% | 21.5% | 2.7% | 3.46 | 3.01 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 25 | 25 | 114 | 495 | 100 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 4.5 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.62 | 5.46 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 25 | 25 | 114 | 495 | 100 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.2% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 5.62 | 5.02 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 74 | 340 | 62 | 30 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 14.6% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 3.63 | 3.50 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 16 | 74 | 340 | 62 | 30 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 0.6% | 3.63 | 2.99 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.1% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 3.00 | 8.30 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.1% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 7.7% | 3.00 | 8.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 46 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 43 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 40 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 44 | 185 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.8% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 3.4% | 4.93 | 5.07 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 57 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.53 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 90 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 84 | 79 | 405 | 1723 | 311 | 205 | 55 | 94% | 4.8 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.94 | 4.82 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 852 | 154 | 101 | 27 | 94% | 4.8 | 18.0% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.94 | 4.82 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| M.D. Johnson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.87 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 142 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Zack Segovia R 2029 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 81 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 78 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 77 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 76 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.99 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 3.60 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.39 | 2.98 | 258 | 75 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 75 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 74 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 74 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 73 |
| Matt Cain R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 73 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.29 | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .389 | 4.17 | 16.4% | 7.7% | 60 | -0.12 | 4.17 | 117 | 73 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.79 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 73 |
| Chuck King R 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.70 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 237 | 72 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.67 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.3% | .327 | 2.19 | 29.2% | 16.9% | 17 | -1.48 | 2.19 | 426 | 72 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.66 | 17.3% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 290 | 72 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 72 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.60 | 13.4% | 9.4% | 0.8% | .326 | 8.95 | 6.8% | -0.1% | 19 | +5.35 | 3.32 | 227 | 71 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.03 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 248 | 71 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 71 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 1.18 | 4.70 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |