Nolan McLean
P
New York Mets
+2.5
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 214 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 2.8 · 2027
ERA3.23
FIP4.00
xFIP2.57
SIERA2.63
K%24.8%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%14.8%
IP150
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.8peak
2027
OFP—60
K†6065
FB Velo
p7896.5
Whiff%
p6327.3%
K%
p9033.3%
xwOBA vs
p900.224
FB+6.9 (55%)
CH+1.9 (9%)
SI (36%)
CU (12%)
SL-0.5 (16%)
CT-0.6 (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 25 | 25 | 110 | 463 | 116 | 42 | 10 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 3.78 | 4.40 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 29 | 26 | 162 | 655 | 184 | 66 | 12 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 2.34 | 3.26 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 4 | 4 | 24 | 89 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 31.5% | 9.0% | 1.1% | 2.28 | 2.20 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 126 | 533 | 148 | 52 | 13 | 27.8% | 9.8% | 2.4% | 2.48 | 3.29 | +2.9 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 150 | 622 | 176 | 60 | 14 | 28.3% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 2.45 | 3.12 | +3.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 29 | 157 | 663 | 181 | 63 | 16 | 27.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 3.41 | 3.73 | +2.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 29 | 160 | 675 | 181 | 64 | 17 | 26.9% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 3.65 | 3.78 | +2.8 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 29 | 159 | 673 | 179 | 63 | 17 | 26.6% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.83 | +2.7 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 28 | 28 | 156 | 658 | 171 | 62 | 17 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.91 | +2.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 27 | 151 | 638 | 162 | 61 | 17 | 25.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 4.00 | +2.2 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 27 | 146 | 616 | 153 | 59 | 17 | 24.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.11 | +2.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 143 | 58 | 17 | 24.2% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.22 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 134 | 565 | 133 | 56 | 16 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.35 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 123 | 55 | 16 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.49 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 120 | 505 | 112 | 53 | 16 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.55 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 101 | 50 | 15 | 21.4% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.70 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 90 | 48 | 15 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.98 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 38 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 96 | 403 | 79 | 45 | 14 | 19.7% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 5.17 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 56 | 298 | 1219 | 289 | 126 | 27 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 2.87 | 3.62 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 38 | 200 | 817 | 194 | 84 | 18 | 23.7% | 10.3% | 2.2% | 2.87 | 3.62 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nolan McLean (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 25.9% | 10.0% | 2.6% | — | 3.78 | 26.9% | 17.5% | 476 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.34 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .338 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.3% | 209 | +0.27 | 4.34 | 340 | 68 |
| D.J. Brown R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.44 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .317 | 4.49 | 16.3% | 9.3% | 74 | +0.05 | 3.98 | 348 | 67 |
| Kyle Lloyd R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.99 | 14.9% | 7.6% | 2.2% | .292 | 3.99 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 304 | +0.00 | 3.49 | 572 | 67 |
| Jordan Romano R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.45 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .274 | 3.76 | 31.7% | 22.0% | 131 | -0.69 | 2.32 | 658 | 66 |
| Riley Cornelio R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.12 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 2.4% | .257 | 4.64 | 30.5% | 16.4% | 13 | +0.52 | 4.12 | 366 | 66 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.35 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 254 | 66 |
| Shao-Ching Chiang R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 18.8% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 575 | 66 |
| Brad Lord R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.31 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .288 | 4.61 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 16 | +0.30 | 3.41 | 377 | 66 |
| James Needy R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.75 | 14.2% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .326 | 2.82 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 36 | -1.93 | 2.82 | 167 | 66 |
| Chris Ellis R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.88 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 5.29 | 19.2% | 7.2% | 165 | +1.41 | 3.88 | 780 | 65 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.91 | 14.8% | 6.5% | 2.3% | .264 | 3.75 | 23.7% | 18.5% | 68 | -0.16 | 3.75 | 284 | 65 |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.24 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 2.5% | .281 | 5.08 | 16.7% | 5.1% | 160 | +0.84 | 4.24 | 469 | 65 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.79 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 1.2% | .277 | 4.94 | 14.9% | 5.0% | 55 | +1.15 | 3.79 | 254 | 64 |
| Mike Hauschild R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.26 | 17.2% | 6.4% | 1.5% | .311 | 3.78 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 349 | +0.52 | 3.17 | 579 | 64 |
| Luis Ortiz R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.95 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 2.9% | .236 | 4.02 | 25.1% | 14.1% | 89 | +0.07 | 3.04 | 585 | 64 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.27 | 15.7% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 4.66 | 20.4% | 12.2% | 287 | +0.39 | 3.15 | 678 | 64 |
| Drew Beam R 2023 · 3.62 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.62 | 15.8% | 6.4% | 1.9% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 132 | 64 |
| Parker Dunshee R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.75 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .255 | 6.56 | 15.6% | 5.4% | 155 | +1.81 | 2.42 | 598 | 64 |
| Deck McGuire R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.74 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .301 | 4.50 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 411 | +0.76 | 3.50 | 622 | 63 |
| Colin Rea R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.05 | 17.2% | 6.5% | 1.1% | .263 | 4.82 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 178 | +1.77 | 2.56 | 996 | 63 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.256 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.2 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.8 | $23M | +$22M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +2.8 | $24M | +$23M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $9M | +2.7 | $24M | +$15M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $14M | +2.5 | $23M | +$9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $19M | +2.2 | $20M | +$1M |
| Totals | $44M | $131M | +$87M | ||