Nolan McLean
P
New York Mets
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 214 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 3.8 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 72 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9384vR 74
ERA3.24
FIP3.25
K%27.7%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%18.4%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 179 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7296.1
Whiff%
p4724.8%
K%
p8127.9%
xwOBA vs
p720.291
FB+6.9 (53%)
CH+1.9 (7%)
SI (34%)
CU (13%)
SL-0.5 (17%)
CT-0.6 (10%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.7 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 3.80 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.7 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 3.70 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 110 | 463 | 116 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 3.9% | 3.78 | 4.82 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 110 | 463 | 116 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 16.0% | 2.2% | 3.78 | 3.32 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 26 | 162 | 655 | 184 | 66 | 12 | 90% | 5.6 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 1.6% | 2.34 | 3.18 | +4.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 26 | 162 | 655 | 184 | 66 | 12 | 90% | 5.6 | 28.1% | 10.1% | 18.0% | 1.8% | 2.34 | 3.01 | +4.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 19 | 19 | 107 | 448 | 125 | 39 | 10 | 100% | 5.6 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 19.2% | 2.2% | 3.52 | 3.07 | +2.9 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 72 | 302 | 84 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.7% | 9.3% | 18.4% | 2.4% | 3.24 | 3.25 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 84 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.7% | 9.3% | 18.4% | 2.4% | 3.23 | 3.24 | +1.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 179 | 750 | 209 | 67 | 17 | — | — | 27.8% | 8.9% | 18.9% | 2.3% | 3.41 | 3.14 | +4.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 179 | 755 | 209 | 67 | 17 | — | — | 27.6% | 8.9% | 18.7% | 2.3% | 3.41 | 3.14 | +4.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 30 | 30 | 177 | 749 | 208 | 69 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.8% | 9.2% | 18.6% | 2.4% | 3.62 | 3.61 | +3.7 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 30 | 30 | 179 | 754 | 209 | 70 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.8% | 9.3% | 18.5% | 2.4% | 3.64 | 3.65 | +3.7 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 30 | 30 | 179 | 754 | 209 | 71 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.7% | 9.5% | 18.2% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.73 | +3.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 28 | 28 | 171 | 720 | 195 | 70 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.1% | 9.7% | 17.4% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.89 | +3.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 27 | 160 | 677 | 179 | 68 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.4% | 10.0% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.10 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 162 | 65 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.6% | 10.3% | 15.3% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.33 | +1.9 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 145 | 63 | 20 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.59 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 129 | 60 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 4.69 | 4.87 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 28 | 28 | 168 | 709 | 197 | 66 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.8% | 9.2% | 18.6% | 2.4% | 3.62 | 3.61 | +3.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 28 | 28 | 170 | 718 | 199 | 67 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.8% | 9.3% | 18.5% | 2.4% | 3.64 | 3.65 | +3.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 28 | 28 | 170 | 718 | 199 | 68 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.7% | 9.5% | 18.2% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.73 | +3.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 27 | 27 | 162 | 684 | 185 | 66 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.1% | 9.7% | 17.4% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.89 | +2.9 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 152 | 642 | 169 | 64 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 26.4% | 10.0% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.10 | +2.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 154 | 62 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.6% | 10.3% | 15.3% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.33 | +1.8 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 137 | 59 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.8% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.59 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 121 | 511 | 122 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 4.69 | 4.87 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 242 | 242 | 1443 | 6074 | 1629 | 592 | 166 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 17.1% | 2.7% | 3.83 | 3.57 | +30.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 842 | 226 | 82 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.8% | 9.8% | 17.1% | 2.7% | 3.83 | 3.57 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 75 | 71 | 382 | 1578 | 386 | 157 | 39 | 95% | 5.1 | 24.5% | 9.9% | 14.5% | 2.4% | 3.09 | 3.63 | +7.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 37 | 200 | 826 | 202 | 82 | 20 | 95% | 5.1 | 24.5% | 9.9% | 14.5% | 2.4% | 3.09 | 3.63 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nolan McLean (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.84 | 27.1% | 10.0% | 2.5% | — | 3.66 | 27.7% | 18.4% | 534 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.52 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.23 | 29.3% | 21.4% | 130 | -0.29 | 1.85 | 613 | 86 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 74 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 73 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.14 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.42 | 1.35 | 797 | 70 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2028 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 70 |
| Jacob Kisting R 2024 · 2.74 FIP | 23 | SP | 2.74 | 21.9% | 5.9% | 1.4% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 144 | 69 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.64 | 24.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | .249 | 3.95 | 27.5% | 17.8% | 68 | -0.69 | 2.65 | 302 | 69 |
| Ty Johnson R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.77 | 29.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.40 | 244 | 69 |
| Peter Van Loon R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.14 | 25.5% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .303 | 4.30 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 53 | +1.16 | 2.47 | 256 | 69 |
| Javi Rivera R 2025 · 2.72 FIP | 24 | SP | 2.72 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 0.7% | .293 | 7.44 | 14.0% | -0.5% | 42 | +4.72 | 2.72 | 229 | 68 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 68 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .286 | 5.51 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 58 | +1.96 | 3.29 | 142 | 68 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 68 |
| Derek Casey R 2026 · 3.01 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.01 | 22.3% | 9.1% | 1.2% | .344 | 4.33 | 30.6% | 16.4% | 17 | +1.32 | 3.01 | 180 | 67 |
| Zebby Matthews R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.15 | 25.8% | 6.7% | 2.5% | .349 | 5.41 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 101 | +2.26 | 3.15 | 457 | 67 |
| Brett Sears R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 67 |
| Cedric De Grandpre R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.02 | 25.7% | 11.5% | 3.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 219 | 67 |
| David Festa R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 24.9% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 405 | 67 |
| Chase Burns R 2024 · 3.42 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.42 | 28.6% | 9.0% | 2.9% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.41 | 188 | 66 |
| Yoel Tejeda Jr. R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.66 | 21.5% | 12.3% | 1.5% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 158 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 161 | 26.6% | 9.9% | 1.08 | 3.95 |
| Trevor Bauer ('21) | 7 | 159 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 3.68 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Chris Archer ('22) | 6 | 164 | 26.9% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 4.10 |
| Mike Clevinger ('23) | 7 | 113 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 1.07 | 3.45 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |