Nolan McLean

P New York Mets

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 214 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.8 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	25	25	110	3.78	3.32	25.1%	9.1%	—	K 20.0% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.40
2025	24	MIX3 levels	29	26	162	2.34	3.01	28.1%	10.1%	4.8	K 25.1% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.17
2026	25	MLBNYM	31	31	180	3.16	3.34	26.0%	9.4%	4.6
2027PROJ	26	MLBNYM	24	24	146	3.54	3.74	26.8%	9.2%	2.9
2028PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBNYM	20	20	117	3.68	3.78	26.8%	9.3%	2.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBNYM	18	18	106	3.79	3.86	26.7%	9.5%	2.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 9.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 7.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.256First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$4M2030Arb-2$6M2031Arb-3$7M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo71

K%71

xwOBA vs68

Form2.90 ERA (proj 3.54) · K 20.2% (proj 26.8%) · BB 9.3% (proj 9.2%) ▼▼ last 60d · 31 IP through Oct 27

CompsHunter Brown (age 25) · Luis Castillo (age 26) · Tanner Bibee (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10092vR 84

ERA3.54

FIP3.74

K%26.8%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%17.6%

Proj IP146

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$60M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p7126.0%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.256 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$26M	+$25M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$17M	+$16M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+2.0	$14M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$6M	+1.6	$10M	+$6M
2031	Arb-3	$7M	+1.1	$6M	+$2M
Totals		$19M		$73M	+$59M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	2	1	3	12	2	2	0	50%	1.7	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	2.70	3.80	—
2023	22	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	2	1	3	12	2	2	0	50%	1.7	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	2.70	3.70	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	110	463	116	42	10	100%	4.4	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.1%	3.78	4.40	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	110	463	116	42	10	100%	4.4	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.1%	3.78	4.40	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	110	463	116	42	10	100%	4.4	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	2.2%	3.78	3.32	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	162	655	184	66	12	90%	5.6	25.1%	9.7%	15.5%	1.8%	2.34	3.17	+4.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	162	655	184	66	12	90%	5.6	25.1%	9.7%	15.5%	1.8%	2.34	3.17	+4.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	26	162	655	184	66	12	90%	5.6	28.1%	10.1%	18.0%	1.8%	2.34	3.01	+4.8
2026	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	31	31	180	747	194	70	17	100%	5.8	26.0%	9.4%	16.6%	2.3%	3.16	3.35	+4.6
2026	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	31	31	180	747	194	70	17	100%	5.8	26.0%	9.4%	16.6%	2.3%	3.16	3.35	+4.6
2026	25	MLB RAW	New York Mets	31	31	180	747	194	70	17	100%	5.8	26.0%	9.4%	16.6%	2.3%	3.16	3.34	+4.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			39	39	228	935	251	86	21	100%	5.8	26.8%	9.2%	17.6%	2.2%	2.93	3.23	+6.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	NYM	24	24	146	616	165	57	15	100%	6.1	26.8%	9.2%	17.6%	2.5%	3.54	3.74	+2.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	123	519	139	48	13	100%	6.1	26.8%	9.3%	17.5%	2.5%	3.68	3.78	+2.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	112	472	126	45	12	100%	5.9	26.7%	9.5%	17.2%	2.6%	3.79	3.86	+2.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	100	421	110	41	12	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.7%	16.4%	2.8%	3.93	4.02	+1.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	86	363	92	36	11	100%	6.1	25.4%	10.0%	15.4%	3.0%	4.11	4.23	+1.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	NYM	12	12	71	299	74	31	10	100%	5.9	24.6%	10.3%	14.3%	3.2%	4.32	4.46	+0.8
2033	32	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	54	230	55	25	8	100%	6.1	23.8%	10.7%	13.1%	3.4%	4.56	4.71	+0.4
2034	33	MLB MLE	NYM	6	6	38	163	37	18	6	100%	6.4	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	3.7%	4.82	4.99	+0.2
2035	34	MLB MLE	NYM	4	4	25	104	23	12	4	100%	6.2	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	4.0%	5.11	5.30	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	117	494	132	46	12	100%	5.8	26.8%	9.3%	17.5%	2.5%	3.68	3.78	+2.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	106	448	119	42	12	100%	5.9	26.7%	9.5%	17.2%	2.6%	3.79	3.86	+2.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	95	401	105	39	11	100%	5.9	26.1%	9.7%	16.4%	2.8%	3.93	4.02	+1.6
2031	30	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	82	346	88	35	10	100%	5.9	25.4%	10.0%	15.4%	3.0%	4.11	4.23	+1.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	NYM	11	11	67	283	70	29	9	100%	6.1	24.6%	10.3%	14.3%	3.2%	4.32	4.46	+0.7
2033	32	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	52	220	52	24	8	100%	5.8	23.8%	10.7%	13.1%	3.4%	4.56	4.71	+0.4
2034	33	MLB CTX	NYM	6	6	37	156	36	17	6	100%	6.2	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	3.7%	4.81	4.98	+0.2
2035	34	MLB CTX	NYM	4	4	22	93	21	11	4	100%	5.5	22.1%	11.7%	10.4%	4.0%	5.10	5.29	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		135	135	805	3373	873	329	92	100%	6.0	25.9%	9.7%	16.1%	2.7%	3.75	3.65	+17.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	838	217	82	23	100%	6.0	25.9%	9.7%	16.1%	2.7%	3.75	3.65	+4.3
Career	—	MLE		87	83	454	1877	453	182	43	95%	5.2	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	2.3%	3.01	3.55	+14.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	37	200	826	200	80	19	95%	5.2	24.1%	9.7%	14.4%	2.3%	3.01	3.55	+3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 87 IPFIP 3.38 → 3.50 (+0.12)K% 27.0% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.02%	—	×0.860	23.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.58%	—	×0.900	9.53%
HR / BF /BF	2.23%	÷1.167	×1.100	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 3.38 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 26 IPFIP 2.16 → 2.75 (+0.59)K% 27.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.810	22.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.100	12.22%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.990	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 2.16 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 82 IPFIP 3.89 → 5.06 (+1.17)K% 22.8% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.79%	—	×0.810	18.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.12%	—	×1.100	10.03%
HR / BF /BF	2.85%	÷0.834	×1.200	4.10%

Result: FIP 3.89 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 28 IPFIP 1.52 → 2.31 (+0.79)K% 32.1% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.14%	—	×0.770	24.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×1.150	10.27%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.341	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 168).

Result: FIP 1.52 → 2.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan McLean (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.5%	—	3.88	26.5%	17.1%	334	+0.14	—	—	—
Hunter Brown R 2024 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP	3.47	25.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.303	3.26	28.0%	18.7%	293	-0.21	2.77	845	76
Luis Castillo R 2019 · 3.37 FIP	26	SP	3.37	28.9%	10.1%	2.6%	.258	3.06	26.2%	18.1%	408	-0.31	2.44	1,860	74
Tanner Bibee R 2024 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	26.3%	6.2%	3.1%	.280	4.29	20.1%	13.1%	370	+0.92	3.13	834	71
Jon Gray R 2018 · 3.66 FIP	26	SP	3.66	24.6%	6.9%	3.2%	.317	3.76	22.6%	14.4%	338	+0.10	2.93	1,345	70
Brandon Morrow R 2010 · 3.00 FIP	26	SP	3.00	28.3%	10.5%	1.8%	.334	3.81	23.1%	14.9%	358	+0.81	2.67	922	70
Bud Norris R 2011 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP	3.94	22.1%	7.9%	3.1%	.288	3.84	20.5%	12.3%	510	-0.10	3.51	1,221	69
José Ureña R 2018 · 3.86 FIP	26	SP	3.86	18.3%	6.0%	2.8%	.262	4.78	15.5%	7.2%	209	+0.92	3.86	1,251	69
Chris Archer R 2015 · 2.85 FIP	26	SP	2.85	29.0%	7.6%	2.2%	.294	3.57	27.5%	20.1%	551	+0.72	2.85	1,371	68
Dinelson Lamet R 2017 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP	3.80	28.1%	11.2%	3.0%	.270	3.02	33.6%	25.2%	157	-0.78	2.11	778	68
Max Scherzer R 2010 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP	3.68	23.0%	8.6%	2.6%	.292	3.37	26.4%	19.5%	597	-0.31	2.13	3,078	68
Danny Salazar R 2016 · 3.58 FIP	26	SP	3.58	27.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.303	3.34	33.0%	23.0%	103	-0.24	3.22	587	68
John Maine R 2007 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP	3.91	22.2%	8.9%	2.8%	.271	4.40	18.8%	8.0%	261	+0.49	3.91	582	67
Mike Foltynewicz R 2018 · 3.17 FIP	26	SP	3.17	27.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.246	4.80	18.7%	11.8%	307	+1.63	3.17	957	67
Ryne Nelson R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	26	SP	3.62	20.0%	5.1%	2.9%	.303	4.25	20.0%	13.5%	241	+0.63	3.62	828	67
Vince Velasquez R 2018 · 3.41 FIP	26	SP	3.41	25.6%	9.2%	2.4%	.309	4.76	25.5%	15.9%	246	+1.35	3.26	964	67
Jacob deGrom R 2014 · 2.55 FIP	26	SP	2.55	25.5%	7.3%	1.2%	.295	3.04	26.9%	21.1%	540	+0.49	0.74	1,692	67
Brandon Duckworth R 2002 · 4.24 FIP	26	SP	4.24	23.0%	8.8%	3.6%	.301	5.06	14.7%	6.4%	149	+0.82	3.36	511	67
Kevin Gausman R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	26	SP	4.11	21.9%	8.7%	3.2%	.333	3.76	23.2%	16.8%	346	-0.35	2.34	2,103	67
Kyle Bradish R 2023 · 2.97 FIP	26	SP	2.97	25.0%	6.6%	2.1%	.265	3.60	25.0%	15.4%	243	+0.63	2.20	750	67
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2007 · 3.87 FIP	26	SP	3.87	23.0%	9.0%	2.9%	.292	4.01	20.5%	8.8%	381	+0.14	3.77	790	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	89	26.0%	9.7%	1.05	3.74
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
John Hiller ('65-'80, 25 WAR*)	6.2	96	28.7%*	10.1%*	1.16*	3.19*
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96
Greg Harris ('81-'95, 16 WAR*)	7.3	105	24.1%*	10.0%*	1.02*	3.79*
Kerry Wood ('12)	6.9	115	27.0%	11.4%	0.97	3.67