Nolan McLean — OGILVIE

Nolan McLean P New York Mets

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 214 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 3.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION167 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9789vR 81

ERA3.44

FIP3.42

K%26.4%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%17.0%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 182 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$44M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF6565

CTRL4550

CMD5055

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7196.0

Whiff%

p4324.3%

p7326.5%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

FB+6.9 (54%)

CH+1.9 (6%)

SI (34%)

CU (14%)

SL-0.5 (15%)

CT-0.6 (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.256 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.3	$1M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$17M	+$16M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$15M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+2.0	$13M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$11M	+1.6	$9M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$13M	+1.1	$6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$19M		$61M	+$42M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	2	1	3	12	2	2	0	50%	1.7	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	2.70	3.80	—
2023	22	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	2	1	3	12	2	2	0	50%	1.7	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	2.70	3.80	—
2023	22	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	2	1	3	12	2	2	0	50%	1.7	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	0.0%	2.70	3.70	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	110	463	116	42	10	100%	4.4	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.1%	3.78	4.40	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	110	463	116	42	10	100%	4.4	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.1%	3.78	4.40	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	110	463	116	42	10	100%	4.4	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	2.2%	3.78	3.32	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	162	655	184	66	12	90%	5.6	24.7%	9.7%	15.0%	1.8%	2.34	3.21	+3.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	26	162	655	184	66	12	90%	5.6	24.7%	9.7%	15.0%	1.8%	2.34	3.21	+3.4
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	26	162	655	184	66	12	90%	5.6	28.1%	10.1%	18.0%	1.8%	2.34	3.01	+3.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			37	37	215	883	241	82	21	100%	5.8	27.3%	9.3%	18.0%	2.4%	2.98	3.27	+4.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	29	29	167	695	184	66	17	100%	5.7	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	2.5%	3.24	3.41	+3.0
YTD	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	29	29	167	695	184	66	17	100%	5.7	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	2.5%	3.24	3.41	+3.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	MLB RAW	NYM	29	29	167	695	184	66	17	100%	5.7	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	2.4%	3.24	3.41	+3.1
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	NYM	29	29	167	695	184	66	17	100%	5.7	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	2.4%	3.24	3.41	+3.1
ROS	25	MLB MLE	NYM	3	3	15	64	17	6	2	100%	5.0	26.4%	9.5%	17.0%	2.5%	3.44	3.42	+0.3
ROS	25	MLB CTX	NYM	3	3	15	63	17	6	2	100%	5.0	26.4%	9.5%	17.0%	2.5%	3.44	3.42	+0.3
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	182	759	201	72	19	—	—	26.5%	9.5%	17.0%	2.4%	3.26	3.41	+3.3
FULL	25	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	182	767	201	72	19	—	—	26.2%	9.4%	16.8%	2.4%	3.26	3.41	+3.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	172	727	196	69	18	100%	5.9	26.9%	9.4%	17.5%	2.5%	3.78	3.75	+2.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	174	733	198	70	18	100%	6.0	26.9%	9.5%	17.4%	2.5%	3.79	3.79	+2.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYM	29	29	174	733	197	71	19	100%	6.0	26.8%	9.7%	17.1%	2.6%	3.84	3.88	+2.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	NYM	28	28	166	700	184	69	19	100%	5.9	26.2%	9.9%	16.3%	2.8%	3.96	4.04	+1.7
2031	30	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	156	658	168	67	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	10.2%	15.3%	3.0%	4.13	4.24	+1.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	145	614	152	65	20	100%	6.1	24.8%	10.5%	14.2%	3.2%	4.34	4.47	+0.7
2033	32	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	134	568	136	62	20	100%	6.1	24.0%	10.9%	13.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.73	+0.3
2034	33	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	123	521	120	59	19	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	3.7%	4.83	5.01	-0.2
2035	34	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	112	474	105	56	19	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.9%	10.3%	4.0%	5.12	5.31	-0.5
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYM	27	27	164	692	187	65	17	100%	6.1	26.9%	9.4%	17.5%	2.5%	3.78	3.75	+2.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYM	28	28	165	697	188	66	17	100%	5.9	26.9%	9.5%	17.4%	2.5%	3.79	3.79	+2.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYM	28	28	165	697	187	67	18	100%	5.9	26.8%	9.7%	17.1%	2.6%	3.84	3.88	+2.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	158	667	175	66	18	100%	6.1	26.2%	9.9%	16.3%	2.8%	3.96	4.04	+1.6
2031	30	MLB CTX	NYM	25	25	148	625	159	64	18	100%	5.9	25.5%	10.2%	15.3%	3.0%	4.13	4.24	+1.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	NYM	23	23	138	583	144	61	19	100%	6.0	24.8%	10.5%	14.2%	3.2%	4.34	4.47	+0.7
2033	32	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	128	540	130	59	19	100%	6.1	24.0%	10.9%	13.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.73	+0.3
2034	33	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	117	494	114	56	18	100%	5.8	23.1%	11.4%	11.7%	3.7%	4.82	5.00	-0.1
2035	34	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	102	431	96	51	17	100%	6.0	22.2%	11.9%	10.3%	4.0%	5.11	5.30	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		254	254	1514	6369	1636	645	184	100%	6.0	25.7%	10.1%	15.6%	2.9%	4.01	3.80	+20.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	841	216	85	24	100%	6.0	25.7%	10.1%	15.6%	2.9%	4.01	3.80	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		85	81	441	1825	440	178	43	95%	5.2	24.1%	9.8%	14.4%	2.4%	3.04	3.59	+14.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	37	200	827	200	81	19	95%	5.2	24.1%	9.8%	14.4%	2.4%	3.04	3.59	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nolan McLean (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.81	26.3%	9.4%	2.5%	—	3.81	26.9%	17.3%	520	-0.00	—	—	—
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	85
Kumar Rocker R 2023 · 2.86 FIP	23	SP	2.86	29.1%	7.3%	2.4%	.317	3.93	22.0%	13.5%	250	+1.07	1.93	278	76
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	73
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.39	21.4%	12.1%	253	+0.34	3.94	312	73
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	73
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	820	71
Max Meyer R 2022 · 3.37 FIP	23	SP	3.37	25.0%	8.7%	2.3%	.243	4.89	21.7%	14.0%	180	+1.52	3.37	450	70
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	70
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	70
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	70
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	70
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	69
Derek Casey R 2021 · 2.96 FIP	25	SP	2.96	22.3%	9.1%	1.1%	.344	4.67	30.6%	16.4%	17	+1.71	2.96	180	69
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	69
M.D. Johnson R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	25	SP	4.27	21.3%	7.1%	3.8%	.269	4.85	15.7%	4.1%	181	+0.58	3.52	395	68
Blake Adams R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	18.6%	7.3%	1.7%	.333	4.00	17.0%	10.5%	306	+0.60	3.36	389	68
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	68
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	67
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	67
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.6	152	25.5%	10.2%	1.14	4.16
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.2	121	22.7%	9.1%	0.81	3.67