Tanner Bibee — OGILVIE

Tanner Bibee P Cleveland Guardians

+2.2 WAR

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.2 · 2026

ERA3.92

FIP4.13

xFIP4.02

SIERA4.24

K%23.0%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%16.0%

IP176

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2026

K†5555

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p6427.5%

p3419.8%

xwOBA vs

p270.339

CH+3.4 (19%)

SI (16%)

CU (12%)

FB-3.2 (40%)

SL-3.8 (28%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2022	23	AA	Akron RubberDucks	25	25	133	516	167	27	12	25.5%	5.9%	2.7%	2.17	3.16	+3.2
2023	24	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	28	28	157	646	160	53	13	24.4%	8.3%	2.0%	2.86	3.19	+3.8
2024	25	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	174	710	187	44	22	26.3%	6.2%	2.9%	3.47	3.23	+4.1
2025	26	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	182	762	162	53	27	21.3%	7.0%	3.4%	4.24	4.04	+2.6
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	4	4	18	82	18	6	4	22.0%	7.3%	4.9%	6.38	4.85	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB	CLE	26	26	146	615	141	44	21	23.0%	7.1%	3.3%	3.66	3.89	+2.3
2026 Total	27	MLB	CLE	—	—	164	697	159	50	25	22.9%	7.1%	3.5%	3.96	4.00	+2.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	28	MLB	CLE	28	28	152	643	147	46	22	22.9%	7.1%	3.4%	4.20	4.31	+1.7
2028	29	MLB	CLE	25	25	138	584	131	42	20	22.4%	7.2%	3.4%	4.31	4.38	+1.4
2029	30	MLB	CLE	23	23	125	527	115	39	18	21.9%	7.3%	3.5%	4.41	4.47	+1.2
2030	31	MLB	CLE	20	20	112	473	101	35	17	21.3%	7.4%	3.6%	4.51	4.58	+0.9
2031	32	MLB	CLE	18	18	100	423	87	32	15	20.7%	7.6%	3.6%	4.62	4.69	+0.7
2032	33	MLB	CLE	16	16	89	375	75	29	14	20.0%	7.8%	3.7%	4.74	4.82	+0.4
2033	34	MLB	CLE	14	14	78	331	71	24	13	21.3%	7.2%	3.8%	4.71	4.69	+0.4
2034	35	MLB	CLE	13	13	69	290	60	21	11	20.6%	7.4%	3.9%	4.79	4.84	+0.1
2035	36	MLB	CLE	60	—	60	252	50	19	10	19.8%	7.6%	4.1%	4.92	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			119	119	664	2716	657	187	77	24.2%	6.9%	2.8%	3.36	3.48	+13.7
/ 200 IP	—			36	36	200	818	198	56	23	24.2%	6.9%	2.8%	3.36	3.48	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Bibee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	23.4%	7.0%	3.1%	—	4.38	22.5%	15.2%	416	+0.28	—	—	—
Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	27	SP	4.62	17.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.289	3.17	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.45	1.32	650	46
Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	27	SP	3.71	17.7%	7.2%	2.2%	.280	4.16	19.0%	10.3%	519	+0.45	3.61	1,689	45
Tom Koehler R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	29	SP	4.43	17.1%	9.2%	2.9%	.279	4.50	20.3%	10.8%	287	+0.07	4.37	474	45
Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.62 FIP	28	SP	3.62	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.63	15.0%	5.7%	452	+1.01	3.62	786	45
Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	27	SP	4.14	16.2%	8.5%	2.4%	.290	4.94	16.2%	5.9%	316	+0.80	4.04	489	45
Thad Weber R 2029 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	13.7%	6.4%	3.5%	.293	4.59	11.2%	5.7%	202	-0.05	4.36	363	44
Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	27	SP	4.07	17.3%	5.9%	3.1%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.33	3.30	1,146	44
Garrett Richards R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	27	SP	3.67	20.3%	8.6%	2.2%	.271	3.44	25.5%	16.1%	139	-0.23	2.27	577	44
Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP	3.41	17.8%	6.9%	1.7%	.307	3.88	19.9%	12.6%	265	+0.47	2.98	598	44
Toru Murata R 2029 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	13.3%	6.9%	2.1%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.39	3.63	267	43
Merrill Kelly R 2029 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	20.3%	6.8%	3.9%	.289	3.76	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.61	3.61	1,008	43
Yovani Gallardo R 2028 · 3.91 FIP	29	SP	3.91	15.3%	8.6%	1.8%	.302	4.74	15.8%	5.6%	393	+0.83	3.91	577	43
Chris Heston R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	27	SP	3.81	18.9%	8.2%	2.3%	.290	5.06	13.4%	3.8%	143	+1.25	3.81	321	43
Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.36	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.58	2.94	533	43
Mario Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	12.6%	6.0%	2.9%	.302	4.12	16.2%	10.8%	233	-0.24	3.93	368	43
Cory Riordan R 2029 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	42
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	278	42
Elih Villanueva R 2028 · 3.82 FIP	29	SP	3.82	11.0%	5.5%	1.7%	.269	5.50	14.1%	8.1%	57	+1.68	3.82	225	42
Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.27 FIP	27	SP	5.27	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.12	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.15	3.50	622	42
Lance Lynn R 2027 · 3.34 FIP	28	SP	3.34	22.2%	8.4%	1.9%	.313	4.16	21.2%	11.4%	343	+0.82	2.87	1,390	42

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$4M	+2.2	$18M	+$13M
2027	Arb-2	$7M	+1.7	$14M	+$7M
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+1.4	$12M	+$1M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+1.2	$10M	-$11M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+0.9	$4M	-$17M
Totals		$65M		$58M	-$7M

Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.