Tanner Bibee
P
Cleveland Guardians
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 2.6 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION113 act + 73 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120110vR 101
ERA4.18
FIP4.39
K%20.3%
BB%7.2%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP73
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 186 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p4524.6%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p330.332
CH+3.4 (16%)
SI (23%)
CU (11%)
FB-3.2 (46%)
SL-3.8 (25%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 133 | 516 | 167 | 27 | 12 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.5% | 5.9% | 19.7% | 2.4% | 2.17 | 3.02 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 133 | 516 | 167 | 27 | 12 | 100% | 5.3 | 32.4% | 5.2% | 27.1% | 2.3% | 2.17 | 2.37 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 157 | 646 | 160 | 53 | 13 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.4% | 8.3% | 16.1% | 2.0% | 2.86 | 3.20 | +4.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 28 | 157 | 646 | 160 | 53 | 13 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.8% | 8.2% | 16.6% | 2.0% | 2.86 | 3.15 | +4.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 31 | 174 | 710 | 187 | 44 | 22 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.3% | 6.2% | 20.1% | 3.1% | 3.47 | 3.37 | +4.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 31 | 174 | 710 | 187 | 44 | 22 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.3% | 6.2% | 20.1% | 3.1% | 3.47 | 3.35 | +4.2 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 31 | 182 | 762 | 162 | 53 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 14.3% | 3.6% | 4.24 | 4.14 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 31 | 182 | 762 | 162 | 53 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 4.24 | 4.12 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 20 | 20 | 113 | 457 | 87 | 34 | 20 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.0% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 3.90 | 4.84 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 73 | 309 | 63 | 22 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 4.18 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 62 | 22 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 4.17 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 186 | 766 | 150 | 56 | 32 | — | — | 19.5% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 4.01 | 4.66 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 186 | 786 | 150 | 56 | 32 | — | — | 19.0% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 4.01 | 4.61 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 29 | 29 | 173 | 732 | 150 | 54 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 7.3% | 13.2% | 3.9% | 4.69 | 4.81 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 28 | 28 | 166 | 699 | 139 | 53 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 4.86 | 4.97 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 29 | 29 | 173 | 730 | 150 | 54 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 7.3% | 13.2% | 3.9% | 4.68 | 4.80 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 28 | 28 | 166 | 701 | 140 | 53 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 4.85 | 4.96 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 176 | 176 | 1023 | 4254 | 929 | 305 | 150 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.9% | 7.2% | 14.7% | 3.5% | 4.07 | 4.10 | +15.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 832 | 182 | 60 | 29 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.9% | 7.2% | 14.7% | 3.5% | 4.07 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 135 | 135 | 759 | 3091 | 726 | 215 | 95 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.5% | 6.9% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 3.37 | 3.68 | +15.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 814 | 191 | 57 | 25 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.5% | 6.9% | 16.5% | 3.1% | 3.37 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tanner Bibee (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 23.2% | 6.9% | 3.2% | — | 4.89 | 20.3% | 12.8% | 339 | +0.71 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.77 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +0.84 | 3.77 | 786 | 45 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 45 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 45 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.86 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.60 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.74 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 44 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.72 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.26 | 27.2% | 18.6% | 238 | -1.46 | 1.32 | 650 | 44 |
| Kyle Gibson R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.71 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 2.2% | .280 | 4.25 | 19.0% | 10.3% | 519 | +0.54 | 3.60 | 1,689 | 44 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 43 |
| Tom Koehler R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.42 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.51 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 287 | +0.09 | 4.39 | 474 | 43 |
| Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.21 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 3.4% | .278 | 5.68 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 139 | +1.47 | 3.17 | 938 | 43 |
| Lance Lynn R 2027 · 3.24 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.24 | 22.2% | 8.4% | 1.7% | .313 | 4.07 | 21.2% | 11.4% | 343 | +0.83 | 2.87 | 1,390 | 43 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.78 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.50 | 25.5% | 16.1% | 139 | -0.28 | 2.34 | 577 | 43 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.19 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .290 | 4.90 | 16.2% | 5.9% | 316 | +0.71 | 3.95 | 489 | 43 |
| Chris Heston R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.82 | 18.9% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.05 | 13.4% | 3.8% | 143 | +1.23 | 3.82 | 321 | 43 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.49 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .282 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.93 | 3.49 | 355 | 42 |
| Jeremy Hellickson R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.11 | 19.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .285 | 4.39 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 444 | +0.28 | 3.80 | 646 | 42 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.39 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .307 | 3.91 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 265 | +0.52 | 2.71 | 598 | 42 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 42 |
| Thad Weber R 2029 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.82 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.19 | 4.55 | 363 | 41 |
| Joe Kelly R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.19 | 24.6% | 14.1% | 199 | -0.68 | 2.48 | 556 | 41 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.47 | 20.3% | 5.2% | 2.6% | .277 | 3.60 | 21.4% | 15.2% | 420 | +0.13 | 2.85 | 1,148 | 41 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 172 | 21.3% | 7.3% | 1.44 | 4.50 |
| Jason Hammel ('18) | 4 | 161 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 1.28 | 4.65 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Kutter Crawford ('24) | 3 | 130 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 1.45 | 4.47 |