Tanner Bibee — OGILVIE

Tanner Bibee P Cleveland Guardians

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 2.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION171 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.01

FIP4.21

K%19.8%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 186 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p3723.4%

p2718.9%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

CH+3.4 (15%)

SI (21%)

CU (11%)

FB-3.2 (44%)

SL-3.8 (25%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2029

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$0.5M
2027	Ext	$10M	+0.3	$1M	-$8M
2028	Ext	$10M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	$10M	—	—	—
Totals		$30M		$0.1M	-$24M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$9.6M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$24M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	516	167	27	12	100%	5.3	25.5%	5.9%	19.7%	2.6%	2.17	3.13	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	133	516	167	27	12	100%	5.3	32.4%	5.2%	27.1%	2.3%	2.17	2.37	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	157	646	160	53	13	100%	5.6	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	2.0%	2.86	3.18	+3.4
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	157	646	160	53	13	100%	5.6	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	2.0%	2.86	3.18	+3.4
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	157	646	160	53	13	100%	5.6	24.8%	8.2%	16.6%	2.0%	2.86	3.15	+3.4
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	174	710	187	44	22	100%	5.6	26.3%	6.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.37	+3.3
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	174	710	187	44	22	100%	5.6	26.3%	6.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.37	+3.3
2024	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	174	710	187	44	22	100%	5.6	26.3%	6.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.35	+3.3
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	182	762	162	53	27	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.6%	4.24	4.14	+1.6
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	182	762	162	53	27	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.6%	4.24	4.14	+1.6
2025	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	182	762	162	53	27	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.5%	4.24	4.12	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			117	117	669	2761	623	194	89	100%	5.7	22.6%	7.0%	15.5%	3.2%	3.77	3.84	+8.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	30	30	171	704	133	52	27	100%	5.7	18.9%	7.4%	11.5%	3.8%	4.22	4.55	+0.7
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	30	30	171	704	133	52	27	100%	5.7	18.9%	7.4%	11.5%	3.8%	4.22	4.55	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	CLE	30	30	171	704	133	52	27	100%	5.7	18.9%	7.4%	11.5%	3.8%	4.22	4.55	+0.7
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	CLE	30	30	171	704	133	52	27	100%	5.7	18.9%	7.4%	11.5%	3.8%	4.22	4.55	+0.7
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CLE	2	2	15	63	12	5	2	100%	7.5	19.8%	7.2%	12.6%	3.4%	4.01	4.21	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	CLE	2	2	15	63	13	5	2	100%	7.5	19.8%	7.2%	12.6%	3.4%	4.00	4.20	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	186	767	145	57	29	—	—	19.0%	7.4%	11.6%	3.8%	4.20	4.52	+0.8
FULL	27	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	186	784	145	57	29	—	—	18.6%	7.2%	11.4%	3.7%	4.20	4.49	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	29	29	173	732	147	54	27	100%	6.0	20.0%	7.4%	12.7%	3.7%	4.63	4.75	+0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	28	28	166	699	136	53	27	100%	5.9	19.4%	7.6%	11.9%	3.8%	4.80	4.91	-0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	156	657	123	52	27	100%	6.0	18.8%	7.9%	10.9%	4.0%	4.99	5.11	-0.4
2030	31	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	145	613	110	50	26	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.2%	9.8%	4.3%	5.20	5.34	-0.7
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	29	29	173	730	146	54	27	100%	6.0	20.0%	7.4%	12.7%	3.7%	4.62	4.74	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	28	28	166	701	136	53	27	100%	5.9	19.4%	7.6%	11.9%	3.8%	4.79	4.90	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	156	659	124	52	27	100%	6.0	18.8%	7.9%	10.9%	4.0%	4.98	5.10	-0.4
2030	31	MLB CTX	CLE	24	24	145	612	110	50	26	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.2%	9.8%	4.3%	5.19	5.33	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		226	226	1323	5524	1152	408	197	100%	5.9	20.8%	7.4%	13.5%	3.6%	4.31	4.24	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	835	174	62	30	100%	5.8	20.8%	7.4%	13.5%	3.6%	4.31	4.24	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		145	145	817	3338	771	232	103	100%	5.6	23.1%	6.9%	16.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.72	+7.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		36	36	200	817	189	57	25	100%	5.6	23.1%	6.9%	16.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.72	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Bibee (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	23.2%	6.9%	3.2%	—	4.92	19.4%	11.8%	494	+0.75	—	—	—
Mike Foltynewicz R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	27	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.5%	3.4%	.278	5.53	16.6%	10.5%	139	+1.33	3.17	938	78
Kevin Gausman R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	27	SP	4.13	19.1%	6.3%	3.4%	.295	3.14	28.6%	22.3%	354	-0.99	2.34	1,930	73
Jon Gray R 2019 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	23.5%	8.2%	2.6%	.308	3.75	23.5%	15.5%	315	+0.15	2.93	1,345	70
Sonny Gray R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	27	SP	3.68	22.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.267	3.28	26.4%	16.5%	362	-0.40	2.55	1,792	66
Julio Teheran R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP	4.60	22.4%	11.2%	3.6%	.211	4.75	20.3%	9.7%	206	+0.15	3.61	1,134	66
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.44	13.5%	5.0%	286	+2.14	3.27	965	62
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	650	61
Chris Archer R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP	3.78	27.4%	7.9%	3.6%	.294	3.82	27.5%	19.6%	469	+0.04	2.85	1,018	59
Logan Gilbert R 2023 · 3.72 FIP	26	SP	3.72	24.5%	4.5%	3.9%	.271	3.40	28.6%	23.2%	512	-0.32	3.04	1,142	57
Kyle Hendricks R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	27	SP	3.85	21.6%	6.8%	3.1%	.279	3.49	20.2%	16.0%	457	-0.36	3.02	1,685	56
Marcus Stroman R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	27	SP	3.77	17.1%	8.0%	2.0%	.324	3.43	21.0%	14.4%	363	-0.34	3.28	1,367	56
Aaron Sanchez R 2019 · 4.74 FIP	27	SP	4.74	19.0%	10.9%	3.4%	.309	4.68	14.9%	7.1%	175	-0.06	3.43	924	55
Trevor Williams R 2019 · 4.94 FIP	27	SP	4.94	17.8%	6.4%	4.6%	.297	4.16	21.4%	14.5%	255	-0.78	2.69	1,292	55
Michael Wacha R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	27	SP	4.19	20.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.247	4.89	21.0%	13.9%	285	+0.70	3.57	1,638	55
Yordano Ventura R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	17.6%	9.4%	3.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	349	55
Jerad Eickhoff R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	27	SP	3.87	20.5%	8.5%	2.6%	.321	5.64	18.5%	9.8%	94	+1.77	3.87	875	55
Anthony DeSclafani R 2016 · 3.95 FIP	26	SP	3.95	20.6%	5.0%	3.6%	.285	4.19	23.3%	17.2%	282	+0.24	3.38	981	54
Mike Clevinger R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	25.6%	8.3%	2.6%	.278	2.73	31.6%	23.9%	168	-0.69	2.28	1,236	53
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,134	53
Michael Pineda R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	27.4%	6.9%	3.4%	.334	4.02	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	786	52

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.1	164	20.0%	7.6%	1.47	4.69
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38