Tanner Bibee

P Cleveland Guardians

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 1.4 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	25	MLBCLE	31	31	174	3.47	3.35	26.3%	6.2%	4.4
2025	26	MLBCLE	31	31	182	4.24	4.12	21.3%	7.0%	2.8
2026	27	MLBCLE	33	33	188	4.36	4.41	19.0%	7.1%	2.2
2027PROJ	28	MLBCLE	24	24	142	4.34	4.56	20.6%	7.0%	1.4
2028PROJ	29	MLBCLE	18	18	109	4.55	4.70	20.0%	7.2%	0.9
2029PROJ	30	MLBCLE	14	14	86	4.77	4.91	19.3%	7.5%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 9.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service4.000First FA2029Options2

2027Ext$10M2028Ext$10M2029Ext$10M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo43

xwOBA vs43

K%28

Form7.36 ERA (proj 4.34) · K 17.2% (proj 20.6%) · BB 7.8% (proj 7.0%) ▼ last 60d · 26 IP through Oct 27

CompsBud Norris (age 28) · Joe Blanton (age 28) · Brian Lawrence (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 100

ERA4.34

FIP4.56

K%20.6%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP142

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 4.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2029

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$10M	+1.4	$11M	+$2M
2028	Ext	$10M	+0.9	$3M	-$5M
2029	Ext	$10M	+0.5	$2M	-$6M
Totals		$29M		$16M	-$10M

Options · projected decision
2030	CLUB OPT	$9.6M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $1.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	133	516	167	27	12	100%	5.3	25.5%	5.9%	19.7%	2.6%	2.17	3.13	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	133	516	167	27	12	100%	5.3	32.4%	5.2%	27.1%	2.3%	2.17	2.37	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	157	646	160	53	13	100%	5.6	24.4%	8.1%	16.3%	2.0%	2.86	3.17	+4.4
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	157	646	160	53	13	100%	5.6	24.8%	8.2%	16.6%	2.0%	2.86	3.15	+4.4
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	174	710	187	44	22	100%	5.6	26.3%	6.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.37	+4.3
2024	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	174	710	187	44	22	100%	5.6	26.3%	6.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.37	+4.3
2024	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	174	710	187	44	22	100%	5.6	26.3%	6.2%	20.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.35	+4.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	182	762	162	53	27	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.6%	4.24	4.14	+2.7
2025	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	182	762	162	53	27	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.6%	4.24	4.14	+2.7
2025	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	182	762	162	53	27	100%	5.9	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	3.5%	4.24	4.12	+2.8
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	33	33	188	780	148	55	29	100%	5.7	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.7%	4.36	4.44	+2.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	33	33	188	780	148	55	29	100%	5.7	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.7%	4.36	4.44	+2.1
2026	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	33	33	188	780	148	55	29	100%	5.7	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.7%	4.36	4.41	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			120	120	686	2837	638	197	91	100%	5.7	22.5%	6.9%	15.5%	3.2%	3.82	3.83	+13.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CLE	24	24	142	600	123	42	21	100%	5.9	20.6%	7.0%	13.6%	3.5%	4.34	4.56	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	109	460	92	33	17	100%	6.1	20.0%	7.2%	12.8%	3.7%	4.56	4.71	+0.9
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	14	14	86	365	70	27	14	100%	6.2	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	3.9%	4.78	4.92	+0.5
2030	31	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	68	288	53	23	12	100%	6.2	18.6%	7.9%	10.7%	4.1%	5.00	5.15	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	109	460	92	33	17	100%	6.1	20.0%	7.2%	12.8%	3.7%	4.55	4.70	+0.9
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	86	363	70	27	14	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.5%	11.8%	3.9%	4.77	4.91	+0.5
2030	31	MLB CTX	CLE	11	11	68	287	53	23	12	100%	6.2	18.6%	7.9%	10.7%	4.1%	4.99	5.14	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	164	950	3950	854	280	134	100%	5.8	21.6%	7.1%	14.5%	3.4%	4.07	4.03	+15.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	832	180	59	28	100%	5.8	21.6%	7.1%	14.5%	3.4%	4.07	4.03	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		148	148	834	3414	786	235	105	100%	5.6	23.0%	6.9%	16.2%	3.1%	3.52	3.71	+14.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		35	35	200	819	189	56	25	100%	5.6	23.0%	6.9%	16.2%	3.1%	3.52	3.71	+3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 15 IPFIP 2.13 → 2.33 (+0.20)K% 31.1% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.15%	—	×0.860	26.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.11%	—	×0.900	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.037	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.13 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAkron RubberDucks · 74 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.75 (+0.66)K% 28.4% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.42%	—	×0.810	23.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.91%	—	×1.100	5.40%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷1.014	×1.200	1.66%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lake County Captains · 59 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.59 (+1.02)K% 37.2% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.23%	—	×0.770	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.63%	—	×1.150	6.47%
HR / BF /BF	3.46%	÷1.134	×1.250	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Bibee (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.5%	—	4.89	19.4%	11.9%	264	+0.33	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	75
Joe Blanton R 2009 · 4.26 FIP	28	SP	4.26	19.5%	6.6%	3.6%	.285	3.83	19.1%	14.9%	408	-0.43	3.01	1,799	74
Brian Lawrence R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	28	SP	4.26	13.9%	5.5%	3.0%	.296	4.02	12.8%	6.6%	225	-0.24	3.33	963	74
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	72
Matt Clement R 2003 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP	3.97	20.1%	9.0%	2.6%	.253	4.00	19.9%	10.6%	437	+0.03	2.56	1,413	72
Dave Bush R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	28	SP	4.73	14.3%	5.9%	3.8%	.231	4.65	15.1%	8.1%	326	-0.08	3.65	1,141	72
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	69
James Shields R 2010 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	20.8%	5.5%	3.9%	.337	3.45	22.5%	15.9%	706	-0.72	3.35	2,630	69
Chan Ho Park R 2001 · 3.67 FIP	28	SP	3.67	22.2%	9.2%	2.3%	.246	5.18	16.2%	5.5%	271	+1.51	3.20	1,981	68
Orlando Hernandez R 2000 · 4.68 FIP	30	SP	4.68	17.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.255	4.38	18.6%	11.3%	241	-0.30	3.35	1,315	67
Brian Moehler R 2000 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP	4.05	13.3%	5.2%	2.6%	.330	5.28	10.6%	5.1%	77	+1.23	3.81	1,559	66
Ian Kennedy R 2013 · 4.34 FIP	28	SP	4.34	20.5%	9.1%	3.3%	.288	3.93	23.8%	16.3%	565	-0.41	2.88	1,929	66
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	65
Darren Dreifort R 2000 · 4.77 FIP	28	SP	4.77	19.5%	10.2%	3.7%	.257	3.86	23.4%	12.7%	155	-0.91	2.87	873	65
Masahiro Tanaka R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	25.8%	5.3%	4.4%	.300	3.90	22.1%	16.9%	386	-0.09	2.82	1,054	65
Esteban Loaiza R 2000 · 4.41 FIP	28	SP	4.41	15.7%	6.4%	3.3%	.307	3.74	16.8%	11.5%	568	-0.67	2.96	2,099	64
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2012 · 4.76 FIP	28	SP	4.76	17.8%	11.4%	3.1%	.303	3.74	22.6%	12.0%	492	-1.02	2.83	1,862	64
Marcus Stroman R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	28	SP	3.58	20.5%	7.4%	2.3%	.306	3.48	21.3%	15.3%	318	-0.10	2.70	1,497	64
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	63
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.5	136	21.5%	7.1%	1.32	4.11
Mike Minor ('22)	7.0	128	21.6%	7.0%	1.30	4.25
Chris Capuano ('16)	7.1	119	19.5%	7.5%	1.23	4.38
Atlee Hammaker ('81-'95, 9 WAR*)	5.4	120	18.1%*	6.4%*	1.18*	4.37*
Jeff Samardzija ('20)	8.2	150	21.0%	7.1%	1.12	4.15
Dennis Bennett ('62-'68, 7 WAR*)	4.3	123	19.8%*	8.1%*	1.41*	4.40*
Jim Hardin ('67-'72, 8 WAR*)	3.8	125	16.8%*	6.3%*	1.22*	4.05*