Kyle Bradish
P
Baltimore Orioles
Age 29
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 2.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION107 act + 72 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10191vR 82
ERA3.53
FIP3.57
K%25.3%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%15.7%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 179 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p5025.3%
K%
p5623.3%
xwOBA vs
p590.303
SI (34%)
CU (22%)
SL (27%)
FB-4.0 (51%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | 24 | 18 | 101 | 444 | 120 | 53 | 9 | 75% | 4.2 | 20.8% | 13.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.67 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | 24 | 18 | 101 | 444 | 120 | 53 | 9 | 75% | 4.2 | 27.0% | 11.9% | 15.1% | 2.0% | 4.28 | 3.46 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 100 | 430 | 131 | 43 | 10 | 92% | 4.2 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 15.8% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 3.59 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 100 | 430 | 131 | 43 | 10 | 92% | 4.2 | 30.5% | 10.0% | 20.5% | 2.3% | 3.68 | 3.07 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 145 | 609 | 143 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.5% | 8.6% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 3.89 | +2.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 29 | 145 | 609 | 143 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 15.3% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 3.77 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 174 | 692 | 173 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.0% | 6.6% | 18.5% | 1.9% | 2.90 | 2.88 | +5.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 174 | 692 | 173 | 45 | 15 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.0% | 6.5% | 18.5% | 2.2% | 2.90 | 3.01 | +4.9 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 11 | 51 | 212 | 67 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 4.6 | 32.5% | 9.2% | 23.3% | 1.1% | 3.02 | 2.15 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 11 | 11 | 51 | 212 | 67 | 19 | 3 | 100% | 4.6 | 31.6% | 9.0% | 22.6% | 1.4% | 3.02 | 2.35 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 12 | 12 | 54 | 225 | 72 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 31.4% | 8.5% | 22.8% | 2.6% | 3.50 | 2.95 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 12 | 12 | 54 | 225 | 72 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 32.0% | 8.0% | 24.0% | 2.2% | 3.50 | 2.64 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 19 | 19 | 107 | 454 | 106 | 49 | 12 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 3.95 | +1.8 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 302 | 76 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 9.6% | 15.7% | 2.5% | 3.53 | 3.57 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 77 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 9.6% | 15.7% | 2.6% | 3.59 | 3.63 | +1.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 179 | 756 | 182 | 78 | 20 | — | — | 24.1% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 3.58 | 3.80 | +3.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 179 | 755 | 182 | 78 | 20 | — | — | 24.1% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 3.60 | 3.82 | +3.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 87 | 366 | 92 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.2% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.11 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 81 | 342 | 83 | 35 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 75 | 316 | 81 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.6% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.33 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 87 | 367 | 92 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.2% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.17 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 83 | 35 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 4.27 | 4.40 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 75 | 317 | 81 | 31 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.6% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 139 | 139 | 779 | 3249 | 818 | 295 | 88 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.2% | 9.1% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 3.73 | 3.60 | +16.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 834 | 210 | 76 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 25.2% | 9.1% | 16.1% | 2.7% | 3.73 | 3.60 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 150 | 142 | 732 | 3066 | 762 | 292 | 75 | 95% | 4.9 | 24.8% | 9.5% | 15.3% | 2.4% | 3.61 | 3.55 | +15.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 39 | 200 | 837 | 208 | 80 | 20 | 95% | 4.9 | 24.8% | 9.5% | 15.3% | 2.4% | 3.61 | 3.55 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Bradish (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.34 | 29.7% | 8.0% | 2.5% | — | 4.25 | 25.0% | 15.1% | 242 | +0.91 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 2.34 FIP | 29 | SP | 2.34 | 25.0% | 6.5% | 1.0% | .233 | 4.15 | 24.8% | 15.3% | 128 | +1.81 | 2.34 | 577 | 65 |
| Ariel Peña R 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.93 | 22.5% | 12.0% | 2.2% | .304 | 5.94 | 19.9% | -5.7% | 21 | +2.01 | 3.91 | 223 | 64 |
| Stephen Fife R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.20 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 1.2% | .329 | 3.62 | 14.1% | 8.3% | 152 | +0.42 | 3.20 | 179 | 63 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2029 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 62 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.31 | 23.6% | 9.1% | 1.9% | .356 | 3.47 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 141 | +0.16 | 2.93 | 432 | 60 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 58 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2029 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 58 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.6% | .280 | 3.52 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.15 | 2.68 | 186 | 57 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.79 | 17.2% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 56 |
| Mike Clevinger R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.30 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .275 | 4.34 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 246 | +0.04 | 2.28 | 1,227 | 55 |
| Alex Meyer R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.04 | 25.5% | 12.8% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 230 | 55 |
| Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 55 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.43 | 27.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 287 | 55 |
| Chuck King R 2025 · 3.70 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.70 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 237 | 55 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2024 · 3.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.13 | 18.6% | 8.0% | 1.1% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 137 | 55 |
| Barry Enright R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.26 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | .306 | 3.78 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.52 | 3.11 | 315 | 54 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2028 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.20 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .296 | 5.09 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 89 | +0.89 | 4.20 | 166 | 54 |
| Brendan Beck R 2024 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.74 | 22.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 256 | 54 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.99 | 13.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 3.60 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 176 | -0.39 | 2.98 | 258 | 54 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 1.3% | .211 | 4.90 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 230 | +1.01 | 3.89 | 250 | 53 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 84 | 26.3% | 9.4% | 1.10 | 3.92 |
| Brad Peacock ('19) | 4 | 80 | 28.7% | 9.2% | 1.18 | 3.48 |
| Félix Peña ('20) | 4 | 62 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.46 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Adbert Alzolay ('23) | 3 | 70 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.32 | 3.84 |
| Archie Bradley ('21) | 6 | 74 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 0.85 | 3.93 |
| Junior Guerra ('21) | 6 | 84 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 1.16 | 4.04 |