Kyle Bradish — OGILVIE

Kyle Bradish P Baltimore Orioles

+1.9 WAR

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.8 · 2026

ERA3.16

FIP3.41

xFIP3.73

SIERA4.04

K%28.9%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%20.6%

IP99

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2026

K†6565

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p6124.3%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

SI (31%)

CU (22%)

SL (31%)

FB-4.0 (48%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	22	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	24	18	101	444	120	53	9	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	4.28	4.55	+0.9
2021	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	24	22	100	430	131	43	10	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	3.68	3.60	+1.9
2022	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	29	29	145	609	143	50	18	22.5%	8.6%	3.2%	4.21	4.07	+2.0
2023	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	31	31	174	692	173	45	15	25.0%	6.6%	2.0%	2.90	2.90	+4.7
2024	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	11	11	51	212	67	19	3	32.5%	9.2%	1.2%	3.02	2.16	+1.6
2025	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	12	12	54	225	72	18	5	31.4%	8.5%	2.5%	3.50	2.90	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	4	4	20	88	21	10	1	23.9%	11.4%	1.1%	5.49	3.15	+0.4
ROS	29	MLB	BAL	13	13	73	307	83	27	7	27.2%	8.9%	2.3%	2.80	3.18	+1.6
2026 Total	29	MLB	BAL	—	—	92	395	104	37	8	26.5%	9.4%	2.0%	3.37	3.17	+2.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	30	MLB	BAL	15	15	83	352	94	32	8	26.6%	9.0%	2.3%	3.46	3.65	+1.4
2028	31	MLB	BAL	14	14	75	316	88	26	8	28.0%	8.3%	2.4%	3.48	3.49	+1.3
2029	32	MLB	BAL	12	12	67	282	77	24	7	27.4%	8.5%	2.5%	3.55	3.60	+1.1
2030	33	MLB	BAL	59	—	59	250	67	22	6	26.7%	8.7%	2.6%	3.66	3.73	+0.8
2031	34	MLB	BAL	52	—	52	221	58	20	6	26.0%	8.9%	2.7%	3.78	3.87	+0.6
2032	35	MLB	BAL	46	—	46	194	49	18	5	25.3%	9.1%	2.8%	3.92	4.02	+0.5
2033	36	MLB	BAL	40	—	40	168	41	16	5	24.5%	9.3%	2.9%	4.08	4.18	+0.3
2034	37	MLB	BAL	34	—	34	145	34	14	4	23.7%	9.6%	3.0%	4.25	4.36	+0.2
2035	38	MLB	BAL	29	—	29	124	28	12	4	22.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.43	4.54	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			135	127	645	2700	677	253	65	25.1%	9.4%	2.4%	3.67	3.50	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—			42	39	200	838	210	78	20	25.1%	9.4%	2.4%	3.67	3.50	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Bradish (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.47	28.6%	8.3%	2.5%	—	3.58	27.3%	18.7%	225	+0.11	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP-	4.64	18.8%	8.2%	3.8%	.327	3.81	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.83	3.39	316	67
Elian Leyva R 2026 · 3.11 FIP	29	SP-	3.11	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.19	3.11	158	67
Fabio Castillo R 2025 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	66
Hector Noesí R 2025 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP-	4.38	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	250	64
Radhames Liz R 2028 · 2.73 FIP	31	SP-	2.73	24.8%	9.2%	1.0%	.283	4.49	21.8%	7.9%	23	+1.76	2.73	110	64
Barry Enright R 2026 · 3.41 FIP	29	SP-	3.41	15.9%	4.4%	2.0%	.306	3.90	13.3%	9.2%	226	+0.49	3.20	315	63
Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.77 FIP	29	SP-	3.77	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.21	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.44	3.77	725	61
Juan Delgadillo R 2029 · 4.56 FIP	32	SP-	4.56	15.5%	7.2%	3.4%	.316	4.46	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.10	4.46	143	61
Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	29	SP-	4.34	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	.267	4.58	13.6%	4.3%	63	+0.24	3.17	300	61
Tiago Da Silva R 2027 · 3.13 FIP	30	SP-	3.13	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.34	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.79	2.16	287	60
Jesse Hahn R 2025 · 3.58 FIP	28	SP-	3.58	16.6%	9.7%	1.2%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.39	2.19	404	60
Felipe Paulino R 2028 · 4.52 FIP	31	SP-	4.52	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.86	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.34	4.52	150	60
Kanekoa Texeira R 2026 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	14.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.280	4.09	10.2%	-0.2%	63	-0.04	4.09	165	59
Junior Guerra R 2027 · 3.23 FIP	30	SP-	3.23	26.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.269	4.14	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.91	3.23	646	59
Marco Quevedo R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	13.6%	6.2%	3.4%	.258	5.04	11.5%	3.2%	107	+0.44	4.13	300	59
Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 3.92 FIP	29	SP-	3.92	18.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.285	3.84	18.0%	11.4%	179	-0.08	3.45	315	59
David Hale R 2026 · 3.55 FIP	29	SP-	3.55	14.5%	4.3%	2.1%	.342	3.74	16.2%	9.8%	157	+0.19	3.32	493	59
Shawn Haviland R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.69	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.74	3.69	283	59
Jose Samayoa R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	29	SP-	4.08	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	262	58
Yohan Pino R 2028 · 4.10 FIP	31	SP-	4.10	17.8%	5.8%	3.2%	.312	5.35	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.25	4.10	133	58

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.930 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$4M	+1.8	$14M	+$11M
2027	Arb-2	$7M	+1.4	$12M	+$5M
2028	Arb-3	$10M	+1.4	$12M	+$2M
Totals		$21M		$38M	+$17M