Kyle Bradish

P Baltimore Orioles

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.9 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	27	MIX3 levels	11	11	51	3.02	2.35	31.6%	9.0%	2.0	K 32.5% · BB 9.2% · FIP 2.20
2025	28	MIX4 levels	12	12	54	3.50	2.64	32.0%	8.0%	1.9	K 31.2% · BB 8.0% · FIP 2.89
2026	29	MLBBAL	29	29	155	4.12	4.28	21.2%	10.3%	2.0
2027PROJ	30	MLBBAL	10	10	63	4.13	4.37	23.0%	10.0%	0.8
2028PROJ	31	MLBBAL	14	14	84	4.49	4.68	22.2%	10.3%	0.8
2029PROJ	32	MLBBAL	11	11	65	4.76	4.93	21.4%	10.7%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.930First FA2029

2027Arb-2$3M2028Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo45

K%43

xwOBA vs39

Form5.35 ERA (proj 4.13) · K 16.7% (proj 23.0%) · BB 10.7% (proj 10.0%) ▼▼ last 90d · 37 IP through Oct 27

CompsMiguel González (age 30) · Chris Bassitt (age 30) · Matt Buschmann (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.13

FIP4.37

K%23.0%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2022

Service 4.930 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.2M
2028	Arb-3	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	22	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	24	18	101	444	120	53	9	75%	4.2	20.8%	13.7%	7.1%	2.7%	4.28	4.56	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	24	18	101	444	120	53	9	75%	4.2	27.0%	11.9%	15.1%	2.0%	4.28	3.46	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	100	430	131	43	10	92%	4.2	26.4%	10.6%	15.8%	2.5%	3.68	3.60	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	100	430	131	43	10	92%	4.2	30.5%	10.0%	20.5%	2.3%	3.68	3.07	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	145	609	143	50	18	100%	5.0	22.5%	8.6%	13.9%	3.1%	4.21	4.01	+2.4
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	29	145	609	143	50	18	100%	5.0	23.5%	8.2%	15.3%	3.0%	4.21	3.77	+2.8
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	174	692	173	45	15	100%	5.6	25.0%	6.6%	18.5%	2.1%	2.90	2.97	+5.3
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	174	692	173	45	15	100%	5.6	25.0%	6.5%	18.5%	2.2%	2.90	3.01	+5.2
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	51	212	67	19	3	100%	4.6	32.5%	9.2%	23.3%	1.2%	3.02	2.20	+2.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	51	212	67	19	3	100%	4.6	32.5%	9.2%	23.3%	1.2%	3.02	2.20	+2.1
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	11	51	212	67	19	3	100%	4.6	31.6%	9.0%	22.6%	1.4%	3.02	2.35	+2.0
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	54	225	72	18	5	100%	4.5	31.2%	8.0%	23.2%	2.6%	3.50	2.89	+1.7
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	54	225	72	18	5	100%	4.5	31.2%	8.0%	23.2%	2.6%	3.50	2.89	+1.7
2025	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	12	12	54	225	72	18	5	100%	4.5	32.0%	8.0%	24.0%	2.2%	3.50	2.64	+1.9
2026	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	29	29	155	669	142	69	20	100%	5.3	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.9%	4.12	4.18	+2.2
2026	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	29	29	155	669	142	69	20	100%	5.3	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.9%	4.12	4.18	+2.2
2026	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	29	29	155	669	142	69	20	100%	5.3	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	3.0%	4.12	4.28	+2.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			96	96	513	2138	521	184	56	100%	5.3	24.4%	8.6%	15.8%	2.6%	3.67	3.56	+11.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	BAL	10	10	63	266	61	26	8	100%	6.3	23.0%	10.0%	13.1%	2.9%	4.13	4.37	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	84	354	79	36	11	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.3%	12.0%	3.1%	4.41	4.60	+0.8
2029	32	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	65	273	59	29	9	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.7%	10.8%	3.3%	4.68	4.85	+0.4
2030	33	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	47	199	41	22	7	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	3.6%	4.95	5.13	+0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	84	355	79	37	11	100%	6.0	22.2%	10.3%	12.0%	3.2%	4.49	4.68	+0.8
2029	32	MLB CTX	BAL	11	11	65	274	59	29	10	100%	5.9	21.4%	10.7%	10.8%	3.5%	4.76	4.93	+0.4
2030	33	MLB CTX	BAL	8	8	47	198	41	22	7	100%	5.9	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	3.8%	5.04	5.22	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		129	129	708	2965	699	272	84	100%	5.5	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	2.8%	3.96	3.83	+13.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	837	197	77	24	100%	5.5	23.6%	9.2%	14.4%	2.8%	3.96	3.83	+3.8
Career	—	MLE		160	152	780	3281	797	311	84	95%	4.9	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	2.6%	3.72	3.65	+12.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	841	204	80	22	95%	4.9	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	2.6%	3.72	3.65	+3.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAANorfolk Tides · 16 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.00 (+0.41)K% 24.7% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.68%	—	×0.860	21.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷0.945	×1.100	3.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 8 IPFIP 3.64 → 3.96 (+0.32)K% 25.6% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.64%	—	×0.860	22.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.26%	—	×0.900	9.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.83%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 5 IPFIP 4.31 → 4.73 (+0.43)K% 23.8% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.81%	—	×0.810	19.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.100	5.24%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.208	×1.200	4.73%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 4.31 → 4.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 20 IPFIP 1.92 → 2.36 (+0.44)K% 30.7% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.67%	—	×0.880	26.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.33%	—	×1.050	5.60%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷0.970	×1.100	1.51%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 1.92 → 2.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABowie Baysox · 8 IPFIP 0.06 → 0.64 (+0.58)K% 36.0% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.00%	—	×0.810	29.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.170	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.06 → 0.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANorfolk Tides · 87 IPFIP 3.48 → 3.96 (+0.48)K% 27.8% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.880	24.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.05%	—	×1.050	10.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.009	×1.100	2.88%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABowie Baysox · 14 IPFIP 0.10 → 1.02 (+0.92)K% 50.0% → 40.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.810	40.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.62%	—	×1.100	10.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.258	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.10 → 1.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 101 IPFIP 3.44 → 4.56 (+1.12)K% 27.0% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.03%	—	×0.770	20.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.94%	—	×1.150	13.73%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷0.939	×1.250	2.70%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Bradish (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.81	21.6%	11.0%	196	+0.44	—	—	—
Miguel González R 2014 · 4.49 FIP	30	SP	4.49	16.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.268	4.26	16.6%	9.5%	457	-0.23	3.72	905	69
Chris Bassitt R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	30	SP	4.20	23.0%	7.7%	3.8%	.258	3.35	23.2%	16.9%	402	-0.85	2.92	1,596	67
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	67
Josh Lowey R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	30	SP	3.35	21.1%	7.8%	1.9%	.311	2.30	26.7%	20.1%	231	-1.05	2.22	426	67
Kodai Senga R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	30	SP	3.40	29.1%	11.1%	2.5%	.274	4.52	23.4%	10.8%	186	+1.12	3.40	352	67
Rolando Arrojo R 2000 · 4.47 FIP	32	SP	4.47	16.1%	8.0%	3.1%	.291	3.68	16.4%	9.2%	185	-0.79	3.50	700	65
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	65
Chase Anderson R 2018 · 4.98 FIP	30	SP	4.98	19.9%	8.9%	4.4%	.235	4.93	20.1%	11.9%	253	-0.05	3.30	1,260	64
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,170	64
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	64
Robert Person R 2000 · 3.80 FIP	30	SP	3.80	22.1%	12.7%	1.8%	.278	4.75	19.5%	9.1%	308	+0.95	3.41	885	63
Mike Fiers R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	30	SP	3.86	23.7%	7.8%	3.2%	.277	4.73	19.9%	13.3%	494	+0.87	2.83	1,140	63
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	63
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	63
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	62
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	62
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	62
Nestor Molina R 2019 · 4.27 FIP	30	SP	4.27	16.1%	7.4%	2.9%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	401	61
Christian Bergman R 2018 · 4.37 FIP	30	SP	4.37	15.7%	6.3%	3.3%	.327	7.36	13.2%	6.6%	26	+2.99	3.99	521	60
Asher Wojciechowski R 2019 · 5.20 FIP	30	SP	5.20	21.5%	8.6%	5.2%	.246	4.97	21.5%	13.2%	92	-0.23	3.15	678	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	87	23.5%	9.3%	1.09	3.95
Joe Hesketh ('84-'94, 10 WAR*)	4.8	87	23.2%*	8.8%*	1.07*	3.95*
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Roy Lee Jackson ('77-'86, 5 WAR*)	2.8	70	21.9%*	8.6%*	1.09*	3.99*
Brandon Morrow ('18)	4.3	78	24.0%	10.1%	0.92	3.96
David Phelps ('22)	3.4	76	22.9%	9.4%	0.94	3.80
Wade Davis ('21)	5.0	83	22.1%	9.3%	0.95	3.94