Kyle Bradish — OGILVIE

Kyle Bradish P Baltimore Orioles

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION155 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.72

FIP3.76

K%23.2%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%13.7%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 169 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p3823.6%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p390.324

SI (37%)

CU (22%)

SL (24%)

FB-4.0 (54%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.930 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.3M		$3M	+$0.2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	24	18	101	444	120	53	9	75%	4.2	20.8%	13.7%	7.1%	2.7%	4.28	4.56	—
2019	22	A+ RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	24	18	101	444	120	53	9	75%	4.2	27.0%	11.9%	15.1%	2.0%	4.28	3.46	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	100	430	131	43	10	92%	4.2	26.4%	10.6%	15.8%	2.5%	3.68	3.60	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	100	430	131	43	10	92%	4.2	30.5%	10.0%	20.5%	2.3%	3.68	3.07	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	29	145	609	143	50	18	100%	5.0	22.5%	8.6%	13.9%	3.1%	4.21	4.01	+1.5
2022	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	29	145	609	143	50	18	100%	5.0	23.5%	8.2%	15.3%	3.0%	4.21	3.77	+2.0
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	174	692	173	45	15	100%	5.6	25.0%	6.6%	18.5%	2.1%	2.90	2.97	+4.2
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	174	692	173	45	15	100%	5.6	25.0%	6.6%	18.5%	2.1%	2.90	2.97	+4.2
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	174	692	173	45	15	100%	5.6	25.0%	6.5%	18.5%	2.2%	2.90	3.01	+4.1
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	51	212	67	19	3	100%	4.6	32.5%	9.2%	23.3%	1.2%	3.02	2.20	+1.8
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	11	11	51	212	67	19	3	100%	4.6	32.5%	9.2%	23.3%	1.2%	3.02	2.20	+1.8
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	11	11	51	212	67	19	3	100%	4.6	31.6%	9.0%	22.6%	1.4%	3.02	2.35	+1.6
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	54	225	72	18	5	100%	4.5	30.9%	8.0%	22.9%	2.6%	3.50	2.91	+1.3
2025	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	12	12	54	225	72	18	5	100%	4.5	30.9%	8.0%	22.9%	2.6%	3.50	2.91	+1.3
2025	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	12	12	54	225	72	18	5	100%	4.5	32.0%	8.0%	24.0%	2.2%	3.50	2.64	+1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			96	96	513	2138	521	184	56	100%	5.3	24.4%	8.6%	15.8%	2.6%	3.67	3.56	+8.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	29	29	155	669	142	69	20	100%	5.3	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.9%	4.12	4.18	+1.3
YTD	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	29	29	155	669	142	69	20	100%	5.3	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	2.9%	4.12	4.18	+1.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	BAL	29	29	155	669	142	69	20	100%	5.3	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	3.0%	4.12	4.25	+1.2
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	BAL	29	29	155	669	142	69	20	100%	5.3	21.2%	10.3%	10.9%	3.0%	4.12	4.25	+1.2
ROS	29	MLB MLE	BAL	2	2	14	59	14	6	2	100%	7.0	23.2%	9.5%	13.7%	2.6%	3.72	3.76	+0.2
ROS	29	MLB CTX	BAL	2	2	14	59	14	6	2	100%	7.0	23.2%	9.5%	13.7%	2.7%	3.78	3.82	+0.2
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	169	728	156	75	22	—	—	21.4%	10.2%	11.1%	3.0%	4.09	4.15	+1.5
FULL	29	MLB A+C	BAL	—	—	169	714	156	75	22	—	—	21.8%	10.5%	11.4%	3.0%	4.09	4.24	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	BAL	14	14	87	366	85	36	11	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.30	4.40	+0.5
2028	31	MLB MLE	BAL	13	13	81	342	76	35	11	100%	6.2	22.4%	10.1%	12.2%	3.2%	4.50	4.63	+0.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	BAL	12	12	75	316	74	31	11	100%	6.2	23.6%	9.7%	13.8%	3.5%	4.57	4.62	+0.2
2030	33	MLB MLE	BAL	11	11	69	290	66	29	11	100%	6.2	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.7%	4.77	4.90	0.0
2027	30	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	87	367	85	36	11	100%	6.2	23.1%	9.8%	13.3%	3.1%	4.37	4.47	+0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	BAL	14	14	81	342	76	35	11	100%	5.8	22.4%	10.1%	12.2%	3.3%	4.58	4.71	+0.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	75	317	75	31	11	100%	6.2	23.6%	9.7%	13.8%	3.6%	4.66	4.71	+0.2
2030	33	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	69	291	66	30	11	100%	5.8	22.7%	10.2%	12.5%	3.9%	4.86	4.99	0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		150	150	838	3511	836	320	103	100%	5.6	23.8%	9.1%	14.7%	2.9%	4.02	3.86	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	838	200	76	25	100%	5.6	23.8%	9.1%	14.7%	2.9%	4.02	3.86	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		160	152	780	3281	796	311	84	95%	4.9	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	2.6%	3.72	3.65	+9.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	841	204	80	22	95%	4.9	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	2.6%	3.72	3.65	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Bradish (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.35	29.6%	7.9%	2.5%	—	4.54	23.0%	13.1%	242	+1.19	—	—	—
Garrett Richards R 2017 · 2.31 FIP	29	SP	2.31	25.0%	6.5%	0.9%	.233	4.01	24.8%	15.3%	128	+1.70	2.31	577	73
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	67
Stephen Fife R 2016 · 3.11 FIP	29	SP	3.11	18.8%	8.1%	1.1%	.329	3.65	14.1%	8.3%	152	+0.54	3.11	179	65
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	432	64
Ricky Nolasco R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	32	SP	3.22	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.41	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.19	3.22	425	63
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	426	62
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	3.63	155	62
Nate Karns R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	29	SP	4.46	27.1%	6.4%	5.2%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	287	61
Domingo Germán R 2022 · 4.16 FIP	29	SP	4.16	19.5%	6.4%	3.5%	.257	4.67	22.3%	13.7%	204	+0.51	3.29	777	61
Brandon Morrow R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	31	SP	3.54	18.3%	5.6%	2.3%	.280	3.49	21.2%	14.8%	153	-0.05	2.67	186	59
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	59
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	59
Dennis O'Grady R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.2%	8.1%	1.7%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	59
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	58
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	58
Mike Clevinger R 2020 · 4.09 FIP	29	SP	4.09	24.7%	8.6%	3.6%	.275	4.24	19.4%	12.2%	246	+0.15	2.28	1,236	58
Barry Enright R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP	3.42	15.9%	4.4%	2.0%	.306	3.95	13.3%	9.2%	226	+0.53	3.26	315	58
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	57
David Hale R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	29	SP	3.54	14.5%	4.3%	2.1%	.342	3.74	16.2%	9.8%	157	+0.20	3.30	493	57
Cole Johnson R 2016 · 3.61 FIP	27	SP	3.61	14.0%	4.8%	2.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	101	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	81	24.5%	9.5%	1.21	4.24
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Brad Peacock ('19)	1.6	80	28.7%	9.2%	1.18	3.48