Luis Castillo — OGILVIE

Luis Castillo P Seattle Mariners

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 75 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 93

ERA3.77

FIP3.90

K%21.8%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%15.0%

ROS IP75

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 163 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6195.3

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

SI (16%)

CH-1.8 (12%)

FB-2.2 (60%)

SL-2.4 (28%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.587 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$10M	+1.1	$9M	-$0.7M
2027	Ext	$24M	+1.4	$10M	-$11M
2028	Ext	$25M	+0.8	$3M	-$18M
Totals		$59M		$22M	-$30M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$30M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	MIX	2 levels	35	16	107	446	94	33	4	46%	3.1	15.8%	8.6%	7.2%	1.5%	3.20	3.67	—
2015	22	MIX	2 levels	35	16	107	446	94	33	4	46%	3.1	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	0.9%	3.20	2.75	—
2016	23	MIX	2 levels	26	24	132	520	103	25	3	92%	5.1	15.3%	5.5%	9.9%	0.7%	2.26	2.88	—
2016	23	MIX	2 levels	26	24	132	520	103	25	3	92%	5.1	19.8%	4.8%	15.0%	0.6%	2.26	2.40	—
2017	24	MIX	2 levels	29	29	170	676	179	44	16	100%	5.9	24.2%	6.7%	17.5%	2.0%	2.86	3.02	+4.7
2017	24	MIX	2 levels	29	29	170	676	179	44	16	100%	5.9	26.5%	6.5%	20.0%	2.4%	2.86	2.99	+4.8
2018	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	31	31	170	708	165	48	28	100%	5.5	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	3.7%	4.30	4.05	+2.7
2018	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	31	31	170	708	165	48	28	100%	5.5	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	4.0%	4.30	4.15	+2.5
2019	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	191	781	226	79	22	100%	6.0	28.9%	10.1%	18.8%	2.7%	3.40	3.40	+4.5
2019	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	191	781	226	79	22	100%	6.0	28.9%	10.1%	18.8%	2.8%	3.40	3.47	+4.3
2020	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	12	12	70	292	89	24	5	100%	5.8	30.5%	8.2%	22.3%	1.6%	3.21	2.46	+1.9
2020	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	12	12	70	292	89	24	5	100%	5.8	30.5%	8.2%	22.3%	1.7%	3.21	2.51	+1.8
2021	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	188	803	192	71	19	100%	5.7	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.2%	3.98	3.43	+4.3
2021	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	188	803	192	71	19	100%	5.7	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.4%	3.98	3.50	+4.2
2022	29	MIX	3 levels	28	28	161	660	183	53	13	100%	5.7	27.2%	7.3%	19.8%	2.2%	2.86	2.96	+4.6
2022	29	MIX	3 levels	28	28	161	660	183	53	13	100%	5.7	27.7%	8.0%	19.7%	2.0%	2.86	2.86	+4.8
2023	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	33	33	197	802	219	56	28	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.0%	20.3%	3.7%	3.34	3.70	+3.9
2023	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	33	33	197	802	219	56	28	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.0%	20.3%	3.5%	3.34	3.58	+4.2
2024	31	MLB	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	719	175	45	25	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.3%	18.1%	3.7%	3.64	3.85	+3.2
2024	31	MLB	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	719	175	45	25	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.3%	18.1%	3.5%	3.64	3.73	+3.4
2025	32	MLB	Seattle Mariners	32	32	181	745	162	46	23	100%	5.6	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.2%	3.54	3.83	+3.3
2025	32	MLB	Seattle Mariners	32	32	181	745	162	46	23	100%	5.6	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.1%	3.54	3.73	+3.5
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	Seattle Mariners	18	15	88	390	81	28	12	83%	4.9	20.8%	7.2%	13.6%	3.1%	4.93	3.94	+1.2
ROS	33	MLB	SEA	12	12	75	316	69	21	10	100%	6.2	21.8%	6.8%	15.0%	3.2%	3.77	3.90	+0.9
ROS	33	MLB	SEA	12	12	75	317	69	21	10	100%	6.2	21.8%	6.8%	15.0%	3.2%	3.72	3.85	+0.9
2026 TOT	33	MLB	SEA	—	—	163	706	150	49	22	—	—	21.2%	7.0%	14.2%	3.1%	4.39	3.92	+2.8
2026 FULL	33	MLB	SEA	—	—	163	687	150	49	22	—	—	21.8%	7.2%	14.6%	3.2%	4.37	3.93	+2.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	34	MLB	SEA	25	25	148	625	132	45	22	100%	5.9	21.1%	7.3%	13.9%	3.5%	4.38	4.56	+1.5
2028	35	MLB	SEA	22	22	133	561	113	44	22	100%	6.0	20.2%	7.8%	12.4%	3.9%	4.69	4.89	+0.8
2027	34	MLB	SEA	25	25	148	625	132	45	22	100%	5.9	21.1%	7.3%	13.9%	3.4%	4.33	4.51	+1.5
2028	35	MLB	SEA	22	22	133	562	113	44	21	100%	6.0	20.2%	7.8%	12.4%	3.8%	4.64	4.84	+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			321	318	1854	7716	1888	584	239	99%	5.8	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	3.1%	3.77	3.69	+37.1
/ 200 IP	—			35	34	200	832	204	63	26	99%	5.8	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	3.1%	3.77	3.69	+4.0
Career	—			339	315	1828	7542	1802	558	201	93%	5.4	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.7%	3.45	3.48	+41.0
/ 200 IP	—			37	34	200	825	197	61	22	93%	5.4	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	2.7%	3.45	3.48	+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	23.7%	6.3%	3.4%	—	4.72	20.7%	13.1%	281	+0.59	—	—	—
Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.25 FIP	33	SP	4.25	20.8%	7.7%	3.5%	.262	4.26	17.1%	11.3%	307	+0.01	3.43	645	39
Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 3.49 FIP	33	SP	3.49	18.7%	4.2%	2.6%	.285	4.58	17.3%	9.6%	253	+1.09	3.49	393	38
Homer Bailey R 2026 · 3.97 FIP	33	SP	3.97	21.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.297	4.49	20.0%	11.0%	52	+0.52	3.97	509	37
Tomoyuki Sugano R 2028 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	15.7%	5.0%	4.5%	.279	5.23	13.4%	7.0%	84	+0.32	4.91	241	37
Cory Riordan R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	30	SP	4.19	14.3%	5.0%	3.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	154	36
Manuel Flores R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP	4.08	17.1%	7.4%	2.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	515	36
John Lackey R 2029 · 3.42 FIP	36	SP	3.42	19.5%	5.4%	2.4%	.291	4.21	22.3%	15.4%	359	+0.79	3.42	577	35
James Shields R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	33	SP	4.36	25.1%	8.8%	4.1%	.292	5.12	17.9%	8.6%	517	+0.76	4.36	720	35
Kyle Davies R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	31	SP	3.72	13.8%	6.1%	1.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	153	35
Jake Peavy R 2027 · 4.09 FIP	34	SP	4.09	17.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.278	4.36	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.27	4.09	262	35
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	21.5%	9.0%	4.7%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	469	35
Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	33	SP	3.82	19.0%	4.8%	3.1%	.247	4.30	15.9%	11.5%	529	+0.48	3.06	1,275	35
Alfredo Simon R 2027 · 4.69 FIP	34	SP	4.69	14.3%	8.2%	3.2%	.289	5.63	12.3%	2.7%	74	+0.94	4.69	261	34
Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.05 FIP	33	SP	3.05	26.4%	7.9%	2.1%	.284	2.86	29.2%	21.3%	400	-0.19	2.55	1,534	34
Ervin Santana R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	33	SP	3.66	19.9%	6.8%	2.5%	.282	4.86	16.7%	9.4%	344	+1.20	3.66	720	34
Jose Oyervides R 2026 · 2.98 FIP	33	SP	2.98	19.1%	6.2%	1.3%	.333	4.17	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.19	2.98	407	34
Marco Estrada R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	33	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.9%	3.2%	.231	4.96	18.8%	10.5%	353	+0.92	4.04	710	34
Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.67 FIP	33	SP	4.67	19.5%	5.0%	4.7%	.264	4.83	16.1%	9.3%	244	+0.16	3.72	918	34
Miguel González R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	14.6%	7.7%	3.1%	.285	6.83	7.6%	-1.5%	12	+2.26	3.73	469	33
Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	33	SP	3.54	22.0%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.70	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.16	3.54	1,102	33

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3	148	21.8%	7.1%	1.38	4.33
CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF	5	151	20.2%	7.8%	1.39	4.14
Kutter Crawford ('24)	3	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Jason Hammel ('18)	4	161	19.8%	6.5%	1.28	4.65
Jerad Eickhoff ('19)	4	109	21.0%	6.9%	1.43	4.12
Félix Hernández ('19)	5	134	20.0%	8.1%	1.39	4.48
Marco Estrada ('19)	5	142	19.6%	8.3%	1.44	4.33