Luis Castillo — OGILVIE

Luis Castillo P Seattle Mariners

+2.2 WAR

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 9.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.2 · 2026

ERA3.86

FIP4.10

xFIP3.93

SIERA4.07

K%23.1%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%16.6%

IP163

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2026

K†6060

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p5125.4%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p110.358

SI (18%)

CH-1.8 (10%)

FB-2.2 (63%)

SL-2.4 (26%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	22	A+	Jupiter Hammerheads	35	16	107	446	94	33	4	15.8%	8.6%	1.2%	3.20	3.54	+2.1
2016	23	AA	Jacksonville Suns	26	24	132	520	103	25	3	15.3%	5.5%	0.7%	2.26	2.87	+3.6
2017	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	29	29	170	676	179	44	16	24.2%	6.7%	2.2%	2.86	3.11	+4.2
2018	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	31	31	170	708	165	48	28	23.3%	6.8%	3.4%	4.30	3.87	+2.7
2019	26	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	191	781	226	79	22	28.9%	10.1%	2.8%	3.40	3.47	+4.0
2020	27	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	12	12	70	292	89	24	5	30.5%	8.2%	1.5%	3.21	2.42	+2.1
2021	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	188	803	192	71	19	23.9%	8.8%	2.2%	3.98	3.41	+4.0
2022	29	MLB	Seattle Mariners	28	28	161	660	183	53	13	27.2%	7.3%	2.1%	2.86	2.88	+4.4
2023	30	MLB	Seattle Mariners	33	33	197	802	219	56	28	27.3%	7.0%	3.5%	3.34	3.61	+3.8
2024	31	MLB	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	719	175	45	25	24.3%	6.3%	3.6%	3.64	3.80	+3.0
2025	32	MLB	Seattle Mariners	32	32	181	745	162	46	23	21.7%	6.2%	3.0%	3.54	3.69	+3.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	33	MLB	Seattle Mariners	4	4	18	88	17	7	1	19.3%	8.0%	1.1%	5.40	3.10	+0.4
ROS	33	MLB	CIN	24	24	133	561	128	38	16	22.9%	6.8%	2.9%	3.47	3.63	+2.5
2026 Total	33	MLB	CIN	—	—	151	649	145	45	17	22.4%	7.0%	2.7%	3.71	3.57	+3.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	34	MLB	CIN	24	24	134	564	124	40	17	22.1%	7.0%	3.0%	4.03	4.15	+1.7
2028	35	MLB	CIN	21	21	117	494	105	36	15	21.3%	7.2%	3.1%	4.19	4.30	+1.3
2029	36	MLB	CIN	19	19	102	430	88	32	14	20.5%	7.5%	3.2%	4.35	4.46	+1.0
2030	37	MLB	CIN	16	16	88	371	73	29	12	19.7%	7.8%	3.4%	4.52	4.64	+0.6
2031	38	MLB	CIN	14	14	75	317	66	23	11	20.9%	7.3%	3.5%	4.54	4.55	+0.5
2032	39	MLB	CIN	12	12	64	271	54	21	10	20.0%	7.6%	3.6%	4.66	4.74	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			325	304	1758	7240	1738	537	183	24.0%	7.4%	2.5%	3.39	3.40	+37.9
/ 200 IP	—			37	35	200	824	198	61	21	24.0%	7.4%	2.5%	3.39	3.40	+4.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.01	24.3%	6.5%	3.2%	—	4.29	21.4%	14.1%	352	+0.28	—	—	—
Cory Riordan R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	39
Kyle Davies R 2024 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	13.8%	6.1%	1.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	153	39
Alfredo Simon R 2027 · 4.65 FIP	34	SP	4.65	14.3%	8.2%	3.1%	.289	5.60	12.3%	2.7%	74	+0.95	4.65	261	39
Tomoyuki Sugano R 2028 · 4.89 FIP	35	SP	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	4.5%	.279	5.58	19.0%	14.2%	17	+0.69	4.89	174	38
Miguel González R 2026 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	14.6%	7.7%	3.2%	.285	6.86	7.6%	-1.5%	12	+2.26	3.76	469	38
Matt Buschmann R 2025 · 4.83 FIP	32	SP	4.83	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	277	38
Jason Hammel R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	33	SP	4.51	20.8%	7.7%	4.0%	.262	4.24	17.1%	11.3%	307	-0.27	3.34	645	37
Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 3.71 FIP	33	SP	3.71	18.7%	4.2%	3.0%	.285	4.61	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.90	3.71	393	37
John Lackey R 2029 · 3.56 FIP	36	SP	3.56	19.5%	5.4%	2.6%	.291	4.31	22.3%	15.4%	359	+0.75	3.56	577	36
Jake Peavy R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	34	SP	4.07	17.3%	5.7%	3.1%	.278	4.39	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.32	4.07	262	36
Yovani Gallardo R 2025 · 4.28 FIP	32	SP	4.28	14.9%	9.6%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	577	36
Daniel McCutchen R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	33	SP	4.81	10.8%	5.9%	3.4%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	287	35
Kyle Lohse R 2029 · 5.01 FIP	36	SP	5.01	16.2%	6.0%	4.6%	.309	5.01	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.00	5.01	211	35
Homer Bailey R 2026 · 4.00 FIP	33	SP	4.00	21.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.297	4.38	20.0%	11.0%	52	+0.38	4.00	509	35
Chris Leroux R 2025 · 4.06 FIP	32	SP	4.06	13.5%	8.0%	2.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	219	35
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2026 · 5.00 FIP	33	SP	5.00	21.5%	9.0%	4.7%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	35
Donovan Hand R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP	4.54	12.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	237	34
Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP	4.21	18.5%	8.1%	3.0%	.308	5.12	17.4%	8.8%	143	+0.91	2.06	1,046	34
Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	33	SP	4.46	18.6%	9.6%	3.1%	.328	3.23	19.5%	12.5%	43	-1.23	2.27	577	34
Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	33	SP	3.72	19.0%	4.8%	2.9%	.247	4.34	15.9%	11.5%	529	+0.62	3.13	1,196	34

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$17M	+2.2	$18M	+$0.6M
Totals		$17M		$18M	+$0.6M