Luis Castillo — OGILVIE

Luis Castillo P Chicago White Sox

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 2.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION129 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.02

FIP4.14

K%20.3%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$51M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—65

STUF6060

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p4023.8%

p2919.1%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

SI (18%)

CH-1.8 (15%)

FB-2.2 (60%)

SL-2.4 (25%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2017

Service 8.587 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.0	$0.2M	-$2M
2027	Ext	$24M	—	—	—
2028	Ext	$25M	—	—	—
Totals		$51M		$-2M	-$46M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$46M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	16	107	446	94	33	4	46%	3.1	15.8%	8.6%	7.2%	1.2%	3.20	3.54	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	16	107	446	94	33	4	46%	3.1	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	0.9%	3.20	2.75	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	132	520	103	25	3	92%	5.1	15.3%	5.5%	9.9%	0.7%	2.26	2.87	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	132	520	103	25	3	92%	5.1	19.8%	4.8%	15.0%	0.6%	2.26	2.40	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	170	676	179	44	16	100%	5.9	24.2%	6.7%	17.5%	2.1%	2.86	3.08	+3.9
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	170	676	179	44	16	100%	5.9	26.5%	6.5%	20.0%	2.4%	2.86	2.99	+4.1
2018	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	31	31	170	708	165	48	28	100%	5.5	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	3.7%	4.30	4.00	+1.8
2018	25	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	31	31	170	708	165	48	28	100%	5.5	23.3%	6.8%	16.5%	4.0%	4.30	4.15	+1.5
2019	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	191	781	226	79	22	100%	6.0	28.9%	10.1%	18.8%	2.6%	3.40	3.37	+3.6
2019	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	191	781	226	79	22	100%	6.0	28.9%	10.1%	18.8%	2.8%	3.40	3.47	+3.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	12	12	70	292	89	24	5	100%	5.8	30.5%	8.2%	22.3%	1.6%	3.21	2.44	+2.2
2020	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	12	12	70	292	89	24	5	100%	5.8	30.5%	8.2%	22.3%	1.7%	3.21	2.51	+2.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	188	803	192	71	19	100%	5.7	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.2%	3.98	3.40	+3.5
2021	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	33	33	188	803	192	71	19	100%	5.7	23.9%	8.8%	15.1%	2.4%	3.98	3.50	+3.2
2022	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	161	660	183	53	13	100%	5.7	27.2%	7.3%	19.8%	2.2%	2.86	2.92	+4.0
2022	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	161	660	183	53	13	100%	5.7	27.7%	8.0%	19.7%	2.0%	2.86	2.86	+4.1
2023	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	33	33	197	802	219	56	28	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.0%	20.3%	3.6%	3.34	3.64	+3.0
2023	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	33	33	197	802	219	56	28	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.0%	20.3%	3.6%	3.34	3.64	+3.0
2023	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	33	33	197	802	219	56	28	100%	6.0	27.3%	7.0%	20.3%	3.5%	3.34	3.58	+3.2
2024	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	719	175	45	25	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.3%	18.1%	3.6%	3.64	3.79	+2.3
2024	31	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	719	175	45	25	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.3%	18.1%	3.6%	3.64	3.79	+2.3
2024	31	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	30	30	175	719	175	45	25	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.3%	18.1%	3.5%	3.64	3.73	+2.5
2025	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	181	745	162	46	23	100%	5.6	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.2%	3.54	3.78	+2.4
2025	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	32	32	181	745	162	46	23	100%	5.6	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.2%	3.54	3.78	+2.4
2025	32	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	32	32	181	745	162	46	23	100%	5.6	21.7%	6.2%	15.6%	3.1%	3.54	3.73	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			270	266	1539	6406	1604	486	198	99%	5.7	25.0%	7.6%	17.5%	3.1%	3.73	3.64	+23.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	27	23	129	582	111	41	24	85%	4.8	19.1%	7.0%	12.0%	4.1%	5.67	4.61	+0.4
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	27	23	129	582	111	41	24	85%	4.8	19.1%	7.0%	12.0%	4.1%	5.67	4.61	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	MLB RAW	CWS	27	23	129	582	111	41	24	85%	4.8	19.1%	7.0%	12.0%	4.1%	5.67	4.65	+0.4
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	CWS	27	23	129	582	111	41	24	85%	4.8	19.1%	7.0%	12.0%	4.1%	5.67	4.65	+0.4
ROS	33	MLB MLE	CWS	2	2	15	62	13	4	2	100%	7.3	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.5%	4.02	4.14	+0.1
ROS	33	MLB CTX	CWS	2	2	15	63	13	4	2	100%	7.5	20.3%	6.8%	13.5%	3.5%	4.05	4.17	+0.1
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	143	644	124	45	26	—	—	19.2%	7.0%	12.2%	4.1%	5.50	4.56	+0.6
FULL	33	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	143	605	124	45	26	—	—	20.4%	7.5%	13.0%	4.3%	5.50	4.70	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	CWS	25	25	148	625	123	45	25	100%	5.9	19.7%	7.3%	12.5%	4.0%	4.78	4.95	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	133	561	105	44	25	100%	6.0	18.8%	7.8%	10.9%	4.4%	5.08	5.29	-0.6
2027	34	MLB CTX	CWS	25	25	148	625	123	45	26	100%	5.9	19.7%	7.3%	12.5%	4.1%	4.82	4.99	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	CWS	22	22	133	562	105	44	25	100%	6.0	18.8%	7.8%	10.9%	4.5%	5.12	5.33	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		319	315	1835	7654	1845	580	251	99%	5.8	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	3.3%	3.92	3.82	+23.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	834	201	63	27	99%	5.7	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	3.3%	3.92	3.82	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		348	323	1869	7734	1832	571	208	93%	5.4	23.7%	7.4%	16.3%	2.7%	3.53	3.51	+22.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	35	200	828	196	61	22	93%	5.4	23.7%	7.4%	16.3%	2.7%	3.53	3.51	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.09	23.7%	6.3%	3.3%	—	5.11	19.3%	11.7%	281	+1.02	—	—	—
Mike Fiers R 2018 · 4.80 FIP	33	SP	4.80	19.5%	5.0%	4.9%	.264	4.93	16.1%	9.3%	244	+0.13	3.86	918	68
Ian Kennedy R 2018 · 4.61 FIP	33	SP	4.61	20.3%	7.3%	4.2%	.296	4.01	26.7%	20.7%	134	-0.60	2.88	864	67
Jake Arrieta R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	33	SP	4.37	18.5%	8.1%	3.3%	.308	5.11	17.4%	8.8%	143	+0.74	2.13	1,046	67
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	64
Yovani Gallardo R 2018 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	14.9%	9.6%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	577	63
Merrill Kelly R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	33	SP	3.69	22.0%	7.3%	2.8%	.267	3.76	23.5%	15.9%	435	+0.07	3.60	1,160	62
Jordan Zimmermann R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	33	SP	4.47	16.3%	4.6%	3.9%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	731	60
Miguel González R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	33	SP	4.54	14.6%	7.7%	3.1%	.285	6.88	7.6%	-1.5%	12	+2.34	3.72	469	59
Homer Bailey R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	33	SP	4.06	21.4%	7.5%	3.3%	.297	4.37	20.0%	11.0%	52	+0.31	4.06	509	57
Jason Hammel R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	33	SP	4.37	20.8%	7.7%	3.8%	.262	4.28	17.1%	11.3%	307	-0.09	3.54	645	57
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	55
Miles Mikolas R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	33	SP	3.94	19.0%	4.8%	3.3%	.247	4.44	15.9%	11.5%	529	+0.50	3.13	1,296	55
Clay Buchholz R 2018 · 3.61 FIP	33	SP	3.61	19.0%	6.4%	2.4%	.254	5.36	15.4%	9.5%	59	+1.75	2.51	433	54
Kenta Maeda R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	33	SP	3.79	24.9%	6.8%	3.5%	.307	4.26	23.5%	17.0%	230	+0.47	2.87	1,092	53
Marco Estrada R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	33	SP	4.04	22.8%	8.9%	3.2%	.231	4.98	18.8%	10.5%	353	+0.94	4.04	710	50
Edinson Volquez R 2016 · 4.44 FIP	33	SP	4.44	16.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.315	4.43	19.4%	6.2%	108	-0.01	3.74	498	49
Junior Guerra R 2018 · 3.99 FIP	33	SP	3.99	22.3%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.12	21.2%	9.1%	173	+0.13	3.18	646	48
Lance Lynn R 2020 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	25.9%	7.3%	3.5%	.235	3.99	25.1%	18.6%	462	+0.22	2.85	1,390	47
Carlos Carrasco R 2020 · 3.42 FIP	33	SP	3.42	29.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.288	4.24	20.8%	13.5%	296	+0.82	2.67	1,455	46
Zack Greinke R 2017 · 3.24 FIP	33	SP	3.24	26.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.285	3.25	23.6%	19.5%	483	+0.01	2.56	1,517	46

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	148	20.9%	7.1%	1.50	4.57
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12