Vince Velasquez

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	31	MIX2 levels	9	9	42	3.43	3.55	21.5%	8.3%	0.9	K 22.8% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.73
2025	33	AAACLE	18	18	82	3.42	3.88	26.8%	14.1%	—	K 23.0% · BB 12.7% · FIP 4.01
2026	34	MIX2 levels	24	16	89	6.04	4.68	21.8%	12.2%	0.7	K 19.0% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.96
2027PROJ	35	MLBCHC	9	9	52	4.88	4.86	21.0%	11.0%	0.3
2028PROJ	36	MLBCHC	7	7	40	5.02	5.16	19.9%	11.6%	0.1
2029PROJ	37	MLBCHC	5	5	29	5.33	5.55	18.9%	12.3%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

K%53

xwOBA vs46

FB Velo32

CompsJesse Estrada (age 35) · Walter Silva (age 32) · Juan Delgadillo (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.88

FIP4.86

K%21.0%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p6227.2%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	12	89	361	103	34	7	43%	3.2	26.2%	9.8%	16.4%	2.1%	3.45	3.26	+1.4
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	12	89	361	103	34	7	43%	3.2	28.5%	9.4%	19.1%	1.9%	3.45	2.95	+1.7
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	569	155	45	22	100%	5.4	27.6%	8.0%	19.6%	3.6%	4.04	3.73	+2.7
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	136	569	155	45	22	100%	5.4	27.2%	7.9%	19.3%	3.9%	4.04	3.92	+2.4
2017	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	18	82	352	77	36	17	100%	4.6	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	4.4%	4.94	5.04	+0.3
2017	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	18	82	352	77	36	17	100%	4.6	21.9%	10.2%	11.6%	4.8%	4.94	5.23	+0.2
2018	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	31	30	147	630	161	58	16	97%	4.7	25.6%	9.2%	16.3%	2.4%	4.85	3.41	+3.6
2018	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	31	30	147	630	161	58	16	97%	4.7	25.6%	9.2%	16.3%	2.5%	4.85	3.51	+3.4
2019	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	23	117	516	130	41	26	70%	3.6	25.2%	7.9%	17.2%	4.7%	4.91	4.56	+1.2
2019	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	33	23	117	516	130	41	26	70%	3.6	25.2%	7.9%	17.2%	5.0%	4.91	4.81	+0.8
2020	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	9	7	34	154	46	16	5	78%	3.8	29.9%	10.4%	19.5%	3.0%	5.56	3.56	+0.8
2020	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	9	7	34	154	46	16	5	78%	3.8	29.9%	10.4%	19.5%	3.2%	5.56	3.72	+0.7
2021	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	25	108	468	125	51	25	81%	3.5	24.2%	11.3%	12.9%	5.4%	5.83	5.44	-0.0
2021	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	25	108	468	125	51	25	81%	3.5	26.7%	10.9%	15.8%	5.3%	5.83	5.21	+0.2
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	9	81	345	76	29	11	29%	2.6	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.4%	4.78	4.13	+0.4
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	9	81	345	76	29	11	29%	2.6	22.0%	8.4%	13.6%	3.2%	4.78	4.06	+0.5
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	42	181	39	15	4	100%	4.7	22.8%	8.6%	14.2%	2.7%	3.43	3.73	+0.8
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	42	181	39	15	4	100%	4.7	21.5%	8.3%	13.3%	2.2%	3.43	3.55	+0.9
2025	33	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	18	18	82	355	95	50	8	100%	4.5	23.0%	12.7%	10.3%	2.3%	3.42	4.01	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	18	18	82	355	95	50	8	100%	4.5	23.0%	12.7%	10.3%	2.3%	3.42	4.01	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	18	18	82	355	95	50	8	100%	4.5	26.8%	14.1%	12.7%	2.3%	3.42	3.88	—
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	89	395	86	48	13	67%	3.7	19.0%	11.2%	7.8%	3.7%	6.04	4.96	+0.5
2026	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	16	89	395	86	48	13	67%	3.7	19.0%	11.2%	7.8%	3.7%	6.04	4.96	+0.5
2026	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	16	89	395	86	48	13	67%	3.7	21.8%	12.2%	9.6%	3.3%	6.04	4.68	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			193	144	767	3306	823	299	126	75%	4.0	24.9%	9.0%	15.8%	3.8%	4.86	4.26	+10.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	CHC	9	9	52	220	46	24	7	100%	5.8	21.0%	11.0%	9.9%	3.2%	4.88	4.86	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	CHC	7	7	40	167	33	19	6	100%	5.7	19.9%	11.6%	8.3%	3.6%	5.09	5.23	+0.1
2029	37	MLB MLE	CHC	5	5	29	122	23	15	5	100%	5.8	18.9%	12.3%	6.6%	4.0%	5.41	5.63	-0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	40	169	34	20	6	100%	5.7	19.9%	11.6%	8.3%	3.4%	5.02	5.16	+0.1
2029	37	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	29	122	23	15	5	100%	5.8	18.9%	12.3%	6.6%	3.8%	5.33	5.55	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		204	155	836	3595	879	333	136	76%	4.1	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	3.8%	4.88	4.29	+10.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		49	37	200	861	210	80	33	76%	4.1	24.5%	9.3%	15.2%	3.8%	4.88	4.29	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		257	192	1007	4326	1051	417	152	75%	3.9	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	3.5%	4.68	4.19	+10.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	38	200	859	209	83	30	75%	3.9	24.3%	9.7%	14.6%	3.5%	4.68	4.19	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 86 IPFIP 4.67 → 4.96 (+0.29)K% 22.1% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.14%	—	×0.860	19.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×0.900	11.25%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.72%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.67 → 4.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAColumbus Clippers · 82 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.01 (+0.15)K% 26.8% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.76%	—	×0.860	23.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.08%	—	×0.900	12.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷1.093	×1.100	2.27%

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 6 IPFIP 2.78 → 3.15 (+0.37)K% 26.9% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.880	23.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.38%	—	×1.050	16.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.421	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 184).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 3.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AClearwater Threshers · 7 IPFIP 1.85 → 3.54 (+1.69)K% 44.4% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.44%	—	×0.740	32.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×1.180	4.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷0.993	×1.300	4.85%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 1.85 → 3.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 7 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.68 (+0.93)K% 50.0% → 44.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.880	44.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.050	13.12%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷0.957	×1.100	4.79%

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 33 IPFIP 2.29 → 3.08 (+0.79)K% 34.6% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.62%	—	×0.810	28.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.100	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.059	×1.200	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.29 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Vince Velasquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.40	19.5%	7.6%	68	+0.54	—	—	—
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	63
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	59
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	58
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	52
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	50
Esmerling Vasquez R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	35	SP-	5.15	8.7%	16.8%	1.2%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	204	49
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	48
Mitch Talbot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	35	SP	5.01	13.2%	4.3%	4.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	395	47
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	46
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	45
Luis Mendoza R 2019 · 5.10 FIP	35	SP	5.10	9.7%	4.2%	4.2%	.378	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	374	42
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	42
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	42
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	41
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	41
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	41
J.D. Martin R 2018 · 4.94 FIP	35	SP	4.94	10.4%	11.9%	2.2%	.284	5.89	13.9%	1.1%	125	+0.95	4.79	414	36
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	35
Chris Michalak L 2006 · 5.71 FIP	35	SP-	5.71	6.2%	8.6%	3.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	30
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	30

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	74	24.2%	9.6%	1.46	4.89
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Brad Havens ('81-'89, 2 WAR*)	3.0	84	21.0%*	9.5%*	1.43*	4.96*
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Mark Davis ('80-'97, 3 WAR*)	5.7	95	26.6%*	10.6%*	1.45*	4.78*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86