Vince Velasquez — OGILVIE

Vince Velasquez P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION84 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.49

FIP4.65

K%22.1%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4045

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p6227.2%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

SL+6.3

CH-1.4

FB-3.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 11.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$1M		$-0.0M	-$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	12	89	361	103	34	7	43%	3.2	26.2%	9.8%	16.4%	2.1%	3.45	3.26	+1.4
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	12	89	361	103	34	7	43%	3.2	28.5%	9.4%	19.1%	1.9%	3.45	2.95	+1.7
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	136	569	155	45	22	100%	5.4	27.6%	8.0%	19.6%	3.6%	4.04	3.73	+1.9
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	136	569	155	45	22	100%	5.4	27.2%	7.9%	19.3%	3.9%	4.04	3.92	+1.6
2017	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	18	82	352	77	36	17	100%	4.6	21.6%	10.5%	11.1%	4.4%	4.94	5.04	-0.1
2017	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	18	82	352	77	36	17	100%	4.6	21.9%	10.2%	11.6%	4.8%	4.94	5.23	-0.3
2018	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	31	30	147	630	161	58	16	97%	4.7	25.6%	9.2%	16.3%	2.4%	4.85	3.41	+2.7
2018	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	31	30	147	630	161	58	16	97%	4.7	25.6%	9.2%	16.3%	2.5%	4.85	3.51	+2.5
2019	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	33	23	117	516	130	41	26	70%	3.6	25.2%	7.9%	17.2%	4.7%	4.91	4.56	+0.5
2019	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	33	23	117	516	130	41	26	70%	3.6	25.2%	7.9%	17.2%	5.0%	4.91	4.81	+0.1
2020	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	9	7	34	154	46	16	5	78%	3.8	29.9%	10.4%	19.5%	3.0%	5.56	3.56	+0.6
2020	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	9	7	34	154	46	16	5	78%	3.8	29.9%	10.4%	19.5%	3.2%	5.56	3.72	+0.5
2021	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	25	108	468	125	51	25	81%	3.5	24.2%	11.3%	12.9%	5.4%	5.83	5.44	-0.7
2021	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	25	108	468	125	51	25	81%	3.5	26.7%	10.9%	15.8%	5.3%	5.83	5.21	-0.4
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	9	81	345	76	29	11	29%	2.6	21.6%	7.8%	13.8%	3.4%	4.78	4.13	+0.4
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	9	81	345	76	29	11	29%	2.6	22.0%	8.4%	13.6%	3.2%	4.78	4.06	+0.5
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	42	181	39	15	4	100%	4.7	22.8%	8.6%	14.2%	2.7%	3.43	3.73	+0.6
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	42	181	39	15	4	100%	4.7	22.8%	8.6%	14.2%	2.7%	3.43	3.73	+0.6
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	42	181	39	15	4	100%	4.7	21.5%	8.3%	13.3%	2.2%	3.43	3.55	+0.7
2025	33	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	18	18	82	355	95	50	8	100%	4.5	22.2%	12.7%	9.5%	2.3%	3.42	4.08	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	18	18	82	355	95	50	8	100%	4.5	22.2%	12.7%	9.5%	2.3%	3.42	4.08	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	18	18	82	355	95	50	8	100%	4.5	26.8%	14.1%	12.7%	2.3%	3.42	3.88	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			193	144	767	3306	823	299	126	75%	4.0	24.9%	9.0%	15.8%	3.8%	4.86	4.26	+5.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	23	15	84	371	84	45	13	65%	3.7	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	4.0%	5.76	5.09	—
YTD	34	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	23	15	84	371	84	45	13	65%	3.7	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	4.0%	5.76	5.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	34	AAA RAW	CHC	21	15	81	360	83	45	13	71%	3.9	23.1%	12.5%	10.6%	3.6%	6.00	4.72	—
2026	34	MLB RAW	CHC	2	0	3	11	1	0	0	0%	1.6	9.1%	0.0%	9.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.33	—
SO FAR	34	MLB RAW	CHC	2	0	3	11	1	0	0	0%	1.6	9.1%	0.0%	9.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.33	—
ROS	34	MLB MLE	CHC	2	2	14	59	13	7	2	100%	7.0	22.1%	12.0%	10.1%	2.8%	4.49	4.65	+0.0
ROS	34	MLB CTX	CHC	2	2	14	59	13	7	2	100%	7.0	22.1%	12.0%	10.1%	2.7%	4.43	4.59	+0.0
2026 TOT	34	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	98	430	97	52	15	—	—	22.6%	12.1%	10.5%	3.4%	5.58	5.03	-0.2
FULL	34	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	17	73	97	52	15	—	—	133.3%	71.5%	61.7%	20.0%	31.77	11.89	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	CHC	25	25	148	625	132	79	19	100%	5.9	21.1%	12.6%	8.6%	3.1%	4.79	4.99	-0.2
2028	36	MLB MLE	CHC	22	22	131	554	111	73	19	100%	6.0	20.1%	13.2%	6.9%	3.5%	5.13	5.36	-0.7
2027	35	MLB CTX	CHC	25	25	148	625	132	79	19	100%	5.9	21.1%	12.6%	8.6%	3.0%	4.73	4.93	-0.2
2028	36	MLB CTX	CHC	22	22	131	553	111	73	18	100%	6.0	20.1%	13.2%	6.9%	3.3%	5.06	5.29	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		242	193	1060	4544	1079	458	165	80%	4.4	23.8%	10.1%	13.7%	3.6%	4.86	4.36	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	36	200	857	204	86	31	80%	4.4	23.8%	10.1%	13.7%	3.6%	4.86	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		256	191	1002	4302	1044	415	152	75%	3.9	24.3%	9.6%	14.6%	3.5%	4.65	4.21	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	38	200	859	208	83	30	75%	3.9	24.3%	9.6%	14.6%	3.5%	4.65	4.21	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Vince Velasquez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	22.1%	12.0%	2.8%	—	5.16	20.7%	7.8%	279	+0.51	—	—	—
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	68
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	66
Josh Lindblom R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP-	3.79	22.7%	6.9%	3.2%	.319	5.07	20.8%	12.0%	133	+1.28	3.50	348	62
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	61
Hector Noesí R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	32	SP-	5.11	22.3%	7.2%	5.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	60
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	60
Jeremy Guthrie R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	36	SP-	5.44	12.7%	6.5%	4.7%	.309	4.85	11.6%	3.0%	87	-0.59	4.85	235	60
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	59
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	59
Mike Pelfrey R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	33	SP-	5.69	14.5%	10.6%	4.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	404	59
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.77	264	58
Edwin Jackson R 2018 · 4.32 FIP	34	SP	4.32	17.9%	9.8%	2.7%	.254	6.97	15.1%	4.8%	89	+2.65	3.77	521	56
Kyle Davies R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	31	SP	3.58	13.8%	6.1%	1.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	153	56
Jake Peavy R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	34	SP	4.07	17.3%	5.7%	3.1%	.278	4.35	19.6%	12.9%	119	+0.28	4.07	262	56
Matt Cain R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	32	SP	4.82	13.2%	7.6%	3.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.82	294	55
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	219	55
Chris Leroux R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	13.5%	8.0%	2.0%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	55
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	55
Justin Masterson R 2017 · 3.50 FIP	32	SP	3.50	19.5%	10.8%	1.2%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	269	54
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	148	21.2%	12.5%	1.19	4.78
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12