Vince Velasquez
P
Omaha Storm Chasers
Age 34
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.45
FIP4.59
K%23.1%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%10.6%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p6227.2%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
SL+6.3
CH-1.4
FB-3.4
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 12 | 89 | 361 | 103 | 34 | 7 | 43% | 3.2 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 16.4% | 1.9% | 3.45 | 3.17 | +2.1 |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 12 | 89 | 361 | 103 | 34 | 7 | 43% | 3.2 | 28.5% | 9.4% | 19.1% | 1.9% | 3.45 | 2.95 | +2.3 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 136 | 569 | 155 | 45 | 22 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.6% | 8.0% | 19.6% | 3.7% | 4.04 | 3.80 | +2.5 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 136 | 569 | 155 | 45 | 22 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.2% | 7.9% | 19.3% | 3.9% | 4.04 | 3.92 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 18 | 82 | 352 | 77 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 4.6 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 4.6% | 4.94 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 18 | 82 | 352 | 77 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 4.6 | 21.9% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 4.8% | 4.94 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 30 | 147 | 630 | 161 | 58 | 16 | 97% | 4.7 | 25.6% | 9.2% | 16.3% | 2.5% | 4.85 | 3.45 | +3.3 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 30 | 147 | 630 | 161 | 58 | 16 | 97% | 4.7 | 25.6% | 9.2% | 16.3% | 2.5% | 4.85 | 3.51 | +3.2 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 33 | 23 | 117 | 516 | 130 | 41 | 26 | 70% | 3.6 | 25.2% | 7.9% | 17.2% | 4.9% | 4.91 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 33 | 23 | 117 | 516 | 130 | 41 | 26 | 70% | 3.6 | 25.2% | 7.9% | 17.2% | 5.0% | 4.91 | 4.81 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 9 | 7 | 34 | 154 | 46 | 16 | 5 | 78% | 3.8 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 19.5% | 3.1% | 5.56 | 3.62 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 9 | 7 | 34 | 154 | 46 | 16 | 5 | 78% | 3.8 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 19.5% | 3.2% | 5.56 | 3.72 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 25 | 108 | 468 | 125 | 51 | 25 | 81% | 3.5 | 24.2% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 5.83 | 5.74 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 25 | 108 | 468 | 125 | 51 | 25 | 81% | 3.5 | 26.7% | 10.9% | 15.8% | 5.3% | 5.83 | 5.21 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 9 | 81 | 345 | 76 | 29 | 11 | 29% | 2.6 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.09 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 9 | 81 | 345 | 76 | 29 | 11 | 29% | 2.6 | 22.0% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.06 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 42 | 181 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 14.2% | 2.5% | 3.43 | 3.63 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 42 | 181 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 8.3% | 13.3% | 2.2% | 3.43 | 3.55 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 33 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 18 | 18 | 82 | 355 | 95 | 50 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.5% | 14.8% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 3.42 | 4.13 | — |
| 2025 | 33 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 18 | 18 | 82 | 355 | 95 | 50 | 8 | 100% | 4.5 | 26.8% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 2.3% | 3.42 | 3.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 23 | 12 | 73 | 328 | 83 | 50 | 10 | 52% | 3.2 | 22.8% | 16.6% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 5.82 | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 43 | 183 | 42 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.1% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.45 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 42 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.1% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 34 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 116 | 511 | 125 | 73 | 15 | — | — | 24.5% | 14.3% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 5.31 | 4.96 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 34 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 47 | 197 | 125 | 73 | 15 | — | — | 63.6% | 37.0% | 26.6% | 7.6% | 13.21 | 6.59 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 39 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 39 | 23 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 207 | 158 | 852 | 3666 | 905 | 345 | 136 | 76% | 4.1 | 24.7% | 9.4% | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 4.25 | +11.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 37 | 200 | 860 | 212 | 81 | 32 | 76% | 4.1 | 24.7% | 9.4% | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.83 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 256 | 188 | 990 | 4259 | 1052 | 435 | 152 | 73% | 3.9 | 24.7% | 10.2% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.27 | +13.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 38 | 200 | 860 | 213 | 88 | 31 | 73% | 3.9 | 24.7% | 10.2% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.27 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Vince Velasquez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 23.1% | 12.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.92 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 42 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 69 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 65 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.05 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.16 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 134 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 393 | 61 |
| Matt Garza R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 60 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 60 |
| Albert Suárez R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.89 | 19.5% | 6.8% | 2.9% | .293 | 4.97 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 41 | +1.08 | 3.59 | 577 | 59 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.97 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 3.5% | .319 | 5.22 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 133 | +1.25 | 3.66 | 348 | 58 |
| Chris Young R 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 58 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 58 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.28 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .254 | 7.23 | 15.1% | 4.8% | 89 | +2.95 | 3.69 | 521 | 57 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.19 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.84 | 3.79 | 264 | 55 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.48 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 3.9% | .294 | 5.50 | 15.6% | 7.6% | 167 | +1.02 | 4.04 | 710 | 55 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.58 | 25.9% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .276 | 4.28 | 19.9% | 12.9% | 351 | +0.70 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 55 |
| Manuel Flores R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 515 | 54 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2028 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 54 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.56 | 15.2% | 7.4% | 1.5% | .314 | 5.01 | 9.4% | 0.3% | 174 | +1.45 | 3.56 | 394 | 54 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.98 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 425 | 52 |
| David Buchanan R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.23 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .337 | 5.96 | 12.5% | 3.1% | 29 | +1.73 | 4.23 | 443 | 52 |
| Matt Cain R 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.83 | 13.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.83 | 294 | 52 |
| Jason Berken R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 52 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 44 | 22.7% | 12.8% | 1.10 | 4.58 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |