Vince Velasquez
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.3
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'3" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.29
FIP4.57
xFIP4.56
SIERA4.51
K%23.5%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%10.9%
IP67
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p6227.2%
K%
p5322.8%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
SL+6.3
CH-1.4
FB-3.4
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MLB | Houston Astros | 28 | 12 | 89 | 361 | 103 | 34 | 7 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 1.9% | 3.45 | 3.18 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 25 | 25 | 136 | 569 | 155 | 45 | 22 | 27.6% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 4.04 | 3.87 | +2.2 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 18 | 18 | 82 | 352 | 77 | 36 | 17 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 3.8% | 4.94 | 4.70 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 30 | 147 | 630 | 161 | 58 | 16 | 25.6% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 4.85 | 3.40 | +3.2 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 33 | 23 | 117 | 516 | 130 | 41 | 26 | 25.2% | 7.9% | 4.3% | 4.91 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 9 | 7 | 34 | 154 | 46 | 16 | 5 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 5.56 | 3.47 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 31 | 25 | 108 | 468 | 125 | 51 | 25 | 24.2% | 11.3% | 5.5% | 5.83 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 31 | 9 | 81 | 345 | 76 | 29 | 11 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 4.78 | 4.27 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 9 | 9 | 42 | 181 | 39 | 15 | 4 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 3.43 | 3.72 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 33 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 18 | 18 | 82 | 355 | 95 | 50 | 8 | 23.5% | 14.8% | 2.3% | 3.42 | 4.26 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 3 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 4.3% | 4.38 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 34 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 64 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.66 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 34 | MLB | SD | — | — | 79 | 333 | 76 | 40 | 10 | 23.0% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.72 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 59 | 34 | 8 | 22.1% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.82 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | SD | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 53 | 32 | 7 | 21.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.84 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 236 | 178 | 930 | 3982 | 988 | 386 | 137 | 24.8% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.12 | +12.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 38 | 200 | 857 | 213 | 83 | 29 | 24.8% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.55 | 4.12 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Vince Velasquez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 22.9% | 12.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.90 | 21.7% | 8.9% | 122 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 84 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.81 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.64 | 3.81 | 208 | 82 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 81 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.52 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.56 | 2.57 | 251 | 80 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.51 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 3.66 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -0.85 | 2.89 | 326 | 80 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 80 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 79 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 78 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.77 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 533 | 77 |
| Francisco Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.72 | 22.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .248 | 6.54 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 25 | +2.82 | 2.87 | 141 | 77 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.18 | 23.7% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .253 | 5.14 | 25.0% | 13.8% | 32 | +0.96 | 3.38 | 212 | 77 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 75 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.39 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.11 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.28 | 4.11 | 186 | 74 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 74 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.06 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.5% | .318 | 4.34 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.72 | 3.77 | 264 | 74 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.15 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .280 | 4.71 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 364 | +0.56 | 2.87 | 1,148 | 73 |
| Scott McGough R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.59 | 18.8% | 13.0% | 2.6% | .289 | 3.93 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 57 | -0.66 | 3.56 | 429 | 72 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.63 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 3.50 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | -0.13 | 2.37 | 140 | 72 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 72 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.75 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 187 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.