Daniel Norris
P
Columbus Clippers
+0.2
WAR
Age 33
LHP
6'2" / 207 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA5.05
FIP4.62
xFIP7.08
SIERA6.31
K%22.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%12.1%
IP72
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL3535
CMD4545
K†5050
FB Velo
p1088.8
Whiff%
p4424.5%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.412
FB+1.4
SL-0.6
CH-4.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 29 | 29 | 151 | 656 | 123 | 60 | 14 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | 4.06 | 4.12 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 31 | 30 | 155 | 677 | 162 | 53 | 14 | 22.3% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 4.00 | 3.34 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 28 | 24 | 116 | 540 | 104 | 57 | 15 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 6.15 | 4.35 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 15 | 11 | 56 | 248 | 68 | 24 | 8 | 25.5% | 9.5% | 4.2% | 4.98 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 32 | 29 | 144 | 610 | 125 | 38 | 25 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.49 | 4.55 | +1.2 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 14 | 1 | 28 | 116 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 24.1% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 3.25 | 2.80 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 56 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 58 | 29 | 9 | 23.4% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 6.16 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 46 | 6 | 70 | 296 | 76 | 32 | 11 | 26.4% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 4.61 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 29 | 16 | 80 | 369 | 73 | 41 | 16 | 17.8% | 11.5% | 4.5% | 5.49 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 63 | 30 | 10 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 5.10 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 57 | 29 | 10 | 19.8% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 4.91 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 52 | 28 | 9 | 19.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 47 | 27 | 9 | 18.3% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 5.15 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 280 | 146 | 857 | 3760 | 784 | 349 | 122 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.30 | +9.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 34 | 200 | 877 | 183 | 81 | 28 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.30 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Norris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | — | 5.06 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 194 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.27 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 2.6% | .286 | 3.59 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.68 | 3.59 | 190 | 81 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.64 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 3.78 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.86 | 3.21 | 156 | 80 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 78 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 76 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.12 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 6.64 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.52 | 3.14 | 564 | 75 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 74 |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 74 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 73 |
| Zach Phillips L 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.67 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.34 | 202 | 71 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.14 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .325 | 4.83 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.69 | 3.78 | 127 | 71 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.03 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 280 | 70 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.42 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .302 | 5.50 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.08 | 2.97 | 294 | 70 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.86 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 6.1% | .320 | 3.43 | 24.4% | 15.6% | 97 | -2.43 | 2.19 | 195 | 70 |
| Colt Hynes L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.79 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 2.4% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 152 | 70 |
| David Huff L 2024 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.07 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 158 | 69 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.19 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .304 | 3.80 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.39 | 1.81 | 421 | 69 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 69 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.45 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 5.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 256 | 69 |
| Franklin Morales L 2024 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 68 |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.20 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.6% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 68 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.