Daniel Norris — OGILVIE

Daniel Norris P Columbus Clippers

Age 33 LHP 6'2" / 207 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.60

FIP4.68

K%21.2%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.5%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.8

Whiff%

p4424.5%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.412

FB+1.4

SL-0.6

CH-4.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	151	656	123	60	14	100%	5.2	17.3%	9.5%	7.9%	2.3%	4.06	4.10	+1.4
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	151	656	123	60	14	100%	5.2	18.8%	9.1%	9.6%	2.1%	4.06	3.87	+1.9
2016	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	30	155	677	162	53	14	97%	5.0	22.3%	8.1%	14.2%	2.1%	4.00	3.38	+2.9
2016	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	31	30	155	677	162	53	14	97%	5.0	23.9%	7.8%	16.1%	2.1%	4.00	3.21	+3.2
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	116	540	104	57	15	86%	4.1	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	2.9%	6.15	4.46	+0.6
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	116	540	104	57	15	86%	4.1	19.3%	10.6%	8.7%	2.8%	6.15	4.47	+0.6
2018	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	11	56	248	68	24	8	73%	3.7	25.5%	9.5%	16.0%	4.2%	4.98	4.44	+0.3
2018	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	11	56	248	68	24	8	73%	3.7	27.4%	9.7%	17.7%	3.2%	4.98	3.81	+0.7
2019	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	32	29	144	610	125	38	25	91%	4.5	20.5%	6.2%	14.3%	4.3%	4.49	4.51	+0.7
2019	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	32	29	144	610	125	38	25	91%	4.5	20.5%	6.2%	14.3%	4.1%	4.49	4.41	+0.8
2020	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	14	1	28	116	28	7	2	7%	2.0	24.1%	6.0%	18.1%	1.8%	3.25	2.81	+0.6
2020	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	14	1	28	116	28	7	2	7%	2.0	24.1%	6.0%	18.1%	1.7%	3.25	2.77	+0.6
2021	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	56	0	57	248	58	29	9	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	3.5%	6.16	4.50	+0.0
2021	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	56	0	57	248	58	29	9	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	3.6%	6.16	4.64	-0.1
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	6	70	296	76	32	11	13%	1.5	26.4%	11.6%	14.8%	4.6%	4.61	4.86	-0.3
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	6	70	296	76	32	11	13%	1.5	25.7%	10.8%	14.9%	3.7%	4.61	4.34	+0.2
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	16	80	369	73	41	16	55%	2.8	16.9%	10.3%	6.6%	4.6%	5.49	5.48	-0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	16	80	369	73	41	16	55%	2.8	16.9%	10.3%	6.6%	4.6%	5.49	5.48	-0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	16	80	369	73	41	16	55%	2.8	19.8%	11.1%	8.7%	4.3%	5.49	5.40	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			210	85	576	2500	541	216	89	40%	2.7	21.6%	8.6%	13.0%	3.6%	4.72	4.36	+1.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	CLE	2	2	13	55	12	5	2	100%	6.5	21.2%	9.6%	11.5%	3.2%	4.60	4.68	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	150	634	129	64	22	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	3.5%	4.83	4.98	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	135	569	110	61	22	100%	6.1	19.3%	10.7%	8.6%	3.9%	5.12	5.32	-0.6
2027	34	MLB CTX	CLE	25	25	150	633	128	64	22	100%	6.0	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	3.5%	4.83	4.98	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	CLE	22	22	135	570	110	61	22	100%	6.1	19.3%	10.7%	8.6%	3.9%	5.12	5.32	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		258	132	861	3703	780	341	133	51%	3.3	21.1%	9.2%	11.8%	3.6%	4.80	4.46	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		60	31	200	861	181	79	31	51%	3.3	21.1%	9.2%	11.8%	3.6%	4.80	4.46	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		280	146	857	3760	781	345	122	52%	3.1	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	3.3%	4.76	4.29	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	34	200	877	182	80	29	52%	3.1	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	3.3%	4.76	4.29	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Norris (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	21.2%	9.6%	3.2%	—	5.14	19.8%	9.4%	285	+0.46	—	—	—
Wandy Rodriguez L 2015 · 3.83 FIP	36	SP-	3.83	19.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	101	65
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	61
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	61
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	60
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.24	15.2%	-1.2%	26	+0.89	2.97	294	54
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	50
Jonathan Sánchez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	36	SP	4.73	18.1%	8.3%	3.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	109	50
Francisco Liriano L 2017 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	19.4%	11.6%	2.6%	.322	4.74	19.5%	7.4%	204	+0.39	3.14	650	49
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2015 · 3.66 FIP	34	SP	3.66	16.8%	7.1%	2.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	119	49
David Huff L 2016 · 4.06 FIP	31	SW	4.06	19.5%	4.9%	3.6%	.384	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	158	49
Roenis Elías L 2022 · 4.06 FIP	33	SW	4.06	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.316	6.66	17.4%	12.2%	21	+2.60	3.15	564	49
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	48
Wade LeBlanc L 2018 · 4.23 FIP	33	SP	4.23	19.6%	5.9%	3.7%	.271	5.12	16.4%	10.2%	227	+0.89	3.65	609	47
Eric Stults L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	35	SP	4.27	14.5%	5.9%	3.0%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	138	47
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	46
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	44
Josh Outman L 2017 · 5.08 FIP	32	SP-	5.08	12.7%	10.7%	3.1%	.322	6.73	12.9%	-5.6%	34	+1.65	4.53	106	44
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	152	44
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	44
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	43

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	150	20.3%	10.1%	1.36	4.83
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47