Daniel Norris
P
Columbus Clippers
Age 33
LHP
6'2" / 207 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 165 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.61
FIP4.69
K%21.4%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%11.5%
ROS IP165
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1088.8
Whiff%
p4424.5%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.412
FB+1.4
SL-0.6
CH-4.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 151 | 656 | 123 | 60 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 4.06 | 4.15 | +2.2 |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 151 | 656 | 123 | 60 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 2.1% | 4.06 | 3.87 | +2.7 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 30 | 155 | 677 | 162 | 53 | 14 | 97% | 5.0 | 22.3% | 8.1% | 14.2% | 2.2% | 4.00 | 3.45 | +3.5 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 30 | 155 | 677 | 162 | 53 | 14 | 97% | 5.0 | 23.9% | 7.8% | 16.1% | 2.1% | 4.00 | 3.21 | +4.0 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 116 | 540 | 104 | 57 | 15 | 86% | 4.1 | 18.9% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 6.15 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 24 | 116 | 540 | 104 | 57 | 15 | 86% | 4.1 | 19.3% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 6.15 | 4.47 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 11 | 56 | 248 | 68 | 24 | 8 | 73% | 3.7 | 25.5% | 9.5% | 16.0% | 4.4% | 4.98 | 4.55 | +0.0 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 11 | 56 | 248 | 68 | 24 | 8 | 73% | 3.7 | 27.4% | 9.7% | 17.7% | 3.2% | 4.98 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 32 | 29 | 144 | 610 | 125 | 38 | 25 | 91% | 4.5 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 14.3% | 4.5% | 4.49 | 4.62 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 32 | 29 | 144 | 610 | 125 | 38 | 25 | 91% | 4.5 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 4.49 | 4.41 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 14 | 1 | 28 | 116 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 7% | 2.0 | 24.1% | 6.0% | 18.1% | 1.9% | 3.25 | 2.86 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 14 | 1 | 28 | 116 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 7% | 2.0 | 24.1% | 6.0% | 18.1% | 1.7% | 3.25 | 2.77 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 56 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 58 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 3.8% | 6.16 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 56 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 58 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 3.6% | 6.16 | 4.64 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 6 | 70 | 296 | 76 | 32 | 11 | 13% | 1.5 | 26.4% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 4.8% | 4.61 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 6 | 70 | 296 | 76 | 32 | 11 | 13% | 1.5 | 25.7% | 10.8% | 14.9% | 3.7% | 4.61 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 16 | 80 | 369 | 73 | 41 | 16 | 55% | 2.8 | 17.8% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.49 | 5.49 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 16 | 80 | 369 | 73 | 41 | 16 | 55% | 2.8 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 4.3% | 5.49 | 5.40 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 149 | 69 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.69 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 150 | 634 | 130 | 66 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.99 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 135 | 569 | 111 | 62 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.13 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 25 | 25 | 150 | 633 | 130 | 66 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.99 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 111 | 62 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.5% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 5.13 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 258 | 132 | 861 | 3703 | 782 | 344 | 133 | 51% | 3.3 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.47 | +9.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 31 | 200 | 861 | 182 | 80 | 31 | 51% | 3.3 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 280 | 146 | 857 | 3760 | 784 | 349 | 127 | 52% | 3.1 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.37 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 34 | 200 | 877 | 183 | 81 | 30 | 52% | 3.1 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Norris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 21.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | — | 5.15 | 20.0% | 9.3% | 285 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2029 · 3.84 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 101 | 64 |
| Francisco Liriano L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.23 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .322 | 4.77 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 204 | +0.54 | 3.07 | 650 | 64 |
| Cesár Ramos L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.17 | 16.7% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 225 | 62 |
| Everett Teaford L 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 61 |
| Jaime García L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.76 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 540 | 60 |
| Kwang Hyun Kim L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.11 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 146 | 60 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.82 | 15.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | .289 | 4.16 | 24.3% | 17.1% | 98 | -1.66 | 3.47 | 512 | 55 |
| Luke Westphal L 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.18 | 24.2% | 13.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 5.42 | 16.1% | -3.1% | 26 | +1.24 | 2.97 | 294 | 54 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 50 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 50 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.68 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 119 | 49 |
| David Huff L 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.00 | 19.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | .384 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 158 | 49 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.89 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .316 | 6.84 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.95 | 3.19 | 564 | 48 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.28 | 19.6% | 5.9% | 3.8% | .271 | 5.15 | 16.4% | 10.2% | 227 | +0.87 | 3.53 | 609 | 48 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.04 | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 175 | 48 |
| Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.90 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.88 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 32 | +0.98 | 2.90 | 864 | 47 |
| Eric Stults L 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.25 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 138 | 46 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.45 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .346 | 4.05 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 104 | -0.40 | 3.82 | 426 | 46 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.51 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .286 | 3.60 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.91 | 3.60 | 190 | 45 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.30 | 19.4% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .279 | 4.87 | 20.5% | 15.3% | 68 | +0.57 | 3.68 | 549 | 44 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 150 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 1.35 | 4.84 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |