Jon Gray
P
Texas Rangers
Age 34
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 83 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.55
FIP4.54
K%20.6%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP84
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p1921.0%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.377
CH+0.8 (8%)
CU (3%)
SL (42%)
FB-4.2 (47%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 29 | 155 | 692 | 150 | 51 | 13 | 97% | 5.2 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | 4.65 | 3.29 | +3.8 |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 29 | 155 | 692 | 150 | 51 | 13 | 97% | 5.2 | 21.7% | 7.4% | 14.3% | 1.9% | 4.65 | 3.24 | +3.9 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 177 | 748 | 196 | 60 | 18 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.0% | 8.0% | 18.0% | 1.9% | 4.48 | 2.98 | +5.0 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 177 | 748 | 196 | 60 | 18 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.2% | 8.0% | 18.2% | 2.4% | 4.48 | 3.22 | +4.5 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 124 | 519 | 130 | 36 | 12 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.3% | 6.5% | 17.8% | 1.7% | 3.42 | 2.79 | +3.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 124 | 519 | 130 | 36 | 12 | 100% | 5.4 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 18.1% | 2.3% | 3.42 | 3.13 | +3.3 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 33 | 183 | 787 | 196 | 55 | 28 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.6% | 6.9% | 17.8% | 2.8% | 5.02 | 3.42 | +4.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 33 | 183 | 787 | 196 | 55 | 28 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.9% | 7.0% | 17.9% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 3.85 | +3.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 26 | 25 | 150 | 637 | 150 | 52 | 19 | 96% | 5.8 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 15.4% | 2.3% | 3.84 | 3.40 | +3.5 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 26 | 25 | 150 | 637 | 150 | 52 | 19 | 96% | 5.8 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 15.4% | 3.0% | 3.84 | 3.79 | +2.8 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 8 | 8 | 39 | 174 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 100% | 4.9 | 12.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 6.69 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 8 | 8 | 39 | 174 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 100% | 4.9 | 12.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 6.69 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 153 | 662 | 163 | 57 | 22 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 2.5% | 4.59 | 3.51 | +3.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 30 | 153 | 662 | 163 | 57 | 22 | 100% | 5.1 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 3.96 | +2.6 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 24 | 24 | 127 | 521 | 134 | 39 | 17 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.7% | 7.5% | 18.2% | 3.2% | 3.96 | 3.62 | +2.6 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 24 | 24 | 127 | 521 | 134 | 39 | 17 | 100% | 5.3 | 25.7% | 7.5% | 18.2% | 3.3% | 3.96 | 3.65 | +2.6 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 29 | 29 | 157 | 656 | 142 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 4.12 | 4.09 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 29 | 29 | 157 | 656 | 142 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 5.4 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 3.4% | 4.12 | 4.12 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 23 | 19 | 103 | 439 | 86 | 27 | 11 | 83% | 4.5 | 19.6% | 6.2% | 13.4% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 3.57 | +2.2 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 23 | 19 | 103 | 439 | 86 | 27 | 11 | 83% | 4.5 | 19.6% | 6.2% | 13.4% | 2.5% | 4.47 | 3.61 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 3 | 23 | 99 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 33% | 2.5 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 5.96 | 6.95 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 3 | 23 | 99 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 33% | 2.5 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 5.96 | 5.84 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 78 | 328 | 68 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 70 | 294 | 58 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 4.75 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 49 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 5.05 | 5.25 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 54 | 227 | 40 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 5.41 | 5.65 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 58 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 4.78 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 49 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 5.08 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 40 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.5% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 5.44 | 5.68 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 265 | 254 | 1416 | 6017 | 1369 | 463 | 192 | 96% | 5.3 | 22.8% | 7.7% | 15.1% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 3.90 | +24.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 850 | 193 | 65 | 27 | 96% | 5.3 | 22.8% | 7.7% | 15.1% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 266 | 254 | 1390 | 5934 | 1365 | 450 | 148 | 95% | 5.2 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 15.4% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 3.49 | +31.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 854 | 196 | 65 | 21 | 95% | 5.2 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 15.4% | 2.5% | 4.41 | 3.49 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jon Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 20.6% | 7.7% | 3.3% | — | 5.23 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 185 | +0.69 | — | — | — |
| Rob Wooten R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.04 | 16.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 191 | 59 |
| Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.43 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 426 | 59 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.19 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.84 | 3.79 | 264 | 59 |
| Jake Arrieta R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.42 | 16.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .331 | 5.73 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 99 | +1.31 | 2.09 | 1,046 | 56 |
| Kameron Loe R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.90 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.47 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 133 | -0.43 | 3.47 | 201 | 55 |
| Johnny Cueto R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.52 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .280 | 4.68 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 364 | +0.16 | 2.85 | 1,148 | 55 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2028 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 53 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.36 | 15.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 433 | 52 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.70 | 13.7% | 5.6% | 1.9% | .281 | 5.05 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 59 | +1.35 | 3.70 | 162 | 51 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.56 | 15.2% | 7.4% | 1.5% | .314 | 5.01 | 9.4% | 0.3% | 174 | +1.45 | 3.56 | 394 | 50 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2024 · 3.64 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.64 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 139 | 50 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.56 | 10.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 143 | 50 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.97 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.71 | 160 | 50 |
| Manuel Flores R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.08 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 515 | 50 |
| Matt Garza R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 49 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.37 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 275 | 49 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.80 | 12.1% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 284 | 49 |
| Sergio Valenzuela R 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.47 | 10.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 244 | 48 |
| Logan Duran R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.91 | 15.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.58 | 15.5% | 6.6% | 29 | -0.33 | 3.36 | 187 | 47 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.05 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.16 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 134 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 393 | 47 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 1.48 | 4.90 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |