Jon Gray
P
Texas Rangers
+0.6
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.47
FIP4.49
xFIP5.79
SIERA5.16
K%20.8%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%13.1%
IP84
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p1921.0%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.377
CH+0.8 (8%)
CU (3%)
SL (42%)
FB-4.2 (47%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 30 | 29 | 155 | 692 | 150 | 51 | 13 | 19.8% | 7.7% | 1.8% | 4.65 | 3.41 | +3.3 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 31 | 31 | 177 | 748 | 196 | 60 | 18 | 26.0% | 8.0% | 2.4% | 4.48 | 3.22 | +4.2 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 23 | 23 | 124 | 519 | 130 | 36 | 12 | 24.3% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 3.42 | 2.92 | +3.3 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 33 | 33 | 183 | 787 | 196 | 55 | 28 | 24.6% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 5.02 | 3.77 | +3.2 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 26 | 25 | 150 | 637 | 150 | 52 | 19 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 3.84 | 3.57 | +2.9 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 8 | 8 | 39 | 174 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 12.6% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 6.69 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 30 | 30 | 153 | 662 | 163 | 57 | 22 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 3.68 | +2.8 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 24 | 24 | 127 | 521 | 134 | 39 | 17 | 25.7% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 3.96 | 3.64 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 29 | 29 | 157 | 656 | 142 | 53 | 22 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 3.76 | +2.8 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 23 | 19 | 103 | 439 | 86 | 27 | 11 | 19.6% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 4.47 | 3.55 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 33 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 9 | 3 | 23 | 99 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.96 | 7.17 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 71 | 25 | 11 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.41 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 60 | 23 | 10 | 21.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.54 | 4.56 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | COL | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 51 | 20 | 9 | 20.2% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | COL | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 42 | 18 | 8 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.80 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 266 | 254 | 1390 | 5934 | 1365 | 450 | 161 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 3.60 | +26.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 37 | 200 | 854 | 196 | 65 | 23 | 23.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 4.41 | 3.60 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jon Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 3.3% | — | 4.71 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 178 | +0.30 | — | — | — |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.63 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 3.50 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | -0.13 | 2.37 | 140 | 66 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.52 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.56 | 2.57 | 251 | 66 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 65 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 65 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 3.37 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.37 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.52 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +1.15 | 3.37 | 144 | 65 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.39 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.11 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.28 | 4.11 | 186 | 65 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.81 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.64 | 3.81 | 208 | 64 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 64 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 63 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.75 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 187 | 63 |
| Bud Norris R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.63 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 316 | 63 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 63 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 62 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 62 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 61 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.42 | 19.1% | 5.0% | 2.4% | .328 | 5.41 | 23.3% | 10.4% | 20 | +1.99 | 3.42 | 365 | 61 |
| Josh Lowey R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.45 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 426 | 61 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.18 | 23.7% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .253 | 5.14 | 25.0% | 13.8% | 32 | +0.96 | 3.38 | 212 | 61 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.89 | 22.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | .306 | 5.24 | 16.3% | 4.9% | 41 | +0.35 | 3.06 | 113 | 60 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.19 | 20.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.65 | 288 | 60 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.