Jon Gray

P Texas Rangers

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	31	MLBTEX	29	29	157	4.12	4.12	21.6%	8.1%	2.4
2024	32	MLBTEX	23	19	103	4.47	3.61	19.6%	6.2%	2.2
2025	33	MIX3 levels	9	3	23	5.96	5.84	20.2%	8.1%	-0.3	K 19.0% · BB 9.5% · FIP 6.75
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	35	MLBTEX	4	4	25	4.54	4.44	22.0%	8.3%	0.3
2028PROJ	36	MLBTEX	4	4	22	4.85	4.96	21.0%	8.9%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.3 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo54

K%28

xwOBA vs10

CompsJosh Lowey (age 34) · Jarrett Grube (age 35) · Jose Oyervides (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 101

ERA4.54

FIP4.44

K%22.0%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP25

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p1921.0%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	155	692	150	51	13	97%	5.2	19.8%	7.7%	12.1%	1.8%	4.65	3.39	+3.8
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	155	692	150	51	13	97%	5.2	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	1.9%	4.65	3.24	+4.1
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	177	748	196	60	18	100%	5.7	26.0%	8.0%	18.0%	2.2%	4.48	3.15	+4.9
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	177	748	196	60	18	100%	5.7	26.2%	8.0%	18.2%	2.4%	4.48	3.22	+4.8
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	124	519	130	36	12	100%	5.4	24.3%	6.5%	17.8%	1.9%	3.42	2.93	+3.8
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	124	519	130	36	12	100%	5.4	25.0%	6.9%	18.1%	2.3%	3.42	3.13	+3.5
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	33	183	787	196	55	28	100%	5.5	24.6%	6.9%	17.8%	3.2%	5.02	3.66	+3.9
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	33	183	787	196	55	28	100%	5.5	24.9%	7.0%	17.9%	3.6%	5.02	3.85	+3.4
2019	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	26	25	150	637	150	52	19	96%	5.8	23.5%	8.2%	15.4%	2.6%	3.84	3.60	+3.3
2019	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	26	25	150	637	150	52	19	96%	5.8	23.5%	8.2%	15.4%	3.0%	3.84	3.79	+2.9
2020	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	8	8	39	174	22	11	6	100%	4.9	12.6%	6.3%	6.3%	3.1%	6.69	4.51	+0.4
2020	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	8	8	39	174	22	11	6	100%	4.9	12.6%	6.3%	6.3%	3.4%	6.69	4.82	+0.3
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	153	662	163	57	22	100%	5.1	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	2.9%	4.59	3.73	+3.1
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	153	662	163	57	22	100%	5.1	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	3.3%	4.59	3.96	+2.6
2022	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	24	24	127	521	134	39	17	100%	5.3	25.7%	7.5%	18.2%	3.0%	3.96	3.54	+2.9
2022	30	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	24	24	127	521	134	39	17	100%	5.3	25.7%	7.5%	18.2%	3.3%	3.96	3.65	+2.7
2023	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	29	29	157	656	142	53	22	100%	5.4	21.6%	8.1%	13.6%	3.1%	4.12	4.01	+2.6
2023	31	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	29	29	157	656	142	53	22	100%	5.4	21.6%	8.1%	13.6%	3.4%	4.12	4.12	+2.4
2024	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	23	19	103	439	86	27	11	83%	4.5	19.6%	6.2%	13.4%	2.3%	4.47	3.50	+2.4
2024	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	23	19	103	439	86	27	11	83%	4.5	19.6%	6.2%	13.4%	2.3%	4.47	3.50	+2.4
2024	32	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	23	19	103	439	86	27	11	83%	4.5	19.6%	6.2%	13.4%	2.5%	4.47	3.61	+2.2
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	3	23	99	20	8	6	33%	2.5	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	7.4%	5.96	6.75	-0.6
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	3	23	99	20	8	6	33%	2.5	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	7.4%	5.96	6.75	-0.6
2025	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	3	23	99	20	8	6	33%	2.5	20.2%	8.1%	12.1%	6.1%	5.96	5.84	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			234	223	1231	5235	1223	394	160	95%	5.3	23.4%	7.5%	15.8%	3.1%	4.49	3.76	+24.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	TEX	4	4	25	106	23	9	3	100%	6.2	22.0%	8.3%	13.8%	3.2%	4.54	4.44	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	TEX	4	4	22	92	19	8	3	100%	5.5	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	3.6%	4.70	4.81	+0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	22	93	20	8	4	100%	5.5	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	3.9%	4.85	4.96	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		238	227	1253	5327	1242	402	164	95%	5.3	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	3.1%	4.50	3.77	+24.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	851	198	64	26	95%	5.3	23.3%	7.5%	15.8%	3.1%	4.50	3.77	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		266	254	1390	5934	1365	450	160	95%	5.2	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	2.7%	4.41	3.59	+24.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	37	200	854	196	65	23	95%	5.2	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	2.7%	4.41	3.59	+3.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 6 IPFIP 4.39 → 5.07 (+0.69)K% 26.1% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.860	22.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×0.900	7.83%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷0.913	×1.100	5.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 4.39 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 11 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.29 (+0.29)K% 29.5% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.55%	—	×0.880	26.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.050	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.162	×1.100	2.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 132).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 9 IPFIP 4.57 → 4.74 (+0.16)K% 30.2% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.23%	—	×0.880	26.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.63%	—	×1.050	12.21%
HR / BF /BF	4.65%	÷1.202	×1.100	4.26%

Result: FIP 4.57 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Modesto Nuts · 9 IPFIP 1.58 → 2.33 (+0.75)K% 30.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.770	23.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.150	9.58%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.877	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 75).

Result: FIP 1.58 → 2.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 114 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.48 (+0.26)K% 21.7% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.70%	—	×0.880	19.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.050	8.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.78%	÷1.105	×1.100	1.77%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jon Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.81	21.0%	12.1%	22	+0.37	—	—	—
Josh Lowey R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	34	SP	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	426	70
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	69
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	68
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	68
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	65
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	65
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	64
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	63
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	62
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	61
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	60
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	57
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	56
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	55
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	54
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	54
Steve Sparks R 2000 · 3.78 FIP	35	SP-	3.78	11.9%	6.5%	1.6%	.283	4.37	11.6%	4.7%	528	+0.59	3.78	1,320	53
Mitch Talbot R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	35	SP	5.01	13.2%	4.3%	4.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	395	53
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	53
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	51

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	106	23.3%	7.8%	1.19	4.49
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Mike Minor ('22)	7.0	128	21.6%	7.0%	1.30	4.25
Chris Capuano ('16)	7.1	119	19.5%	7.5%	1.23	4.38
Bruce Kison ('71-'85, 16 WAR*)	9.0	121	20.4%*	8.5%*	1.10*	4.16*
Lynn McGlothen ('72-'82, 13 WAR*)	7.5	150	21.2%*	8.7%*	1.26*	4.50*
Larry McWilliams ('78-'90, 10 WAR*)	7.8	130	19.0%*	8.1%*	1.24*	4.56*