Jon Gray — OGILVIE

Jon Gray P Texas Rangers

Age 34 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.51

FIP4.49

K%20.6%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p1921.0%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

CH+0.8 (8%)

CU (3%)

SL (42%)

FB-4.2 (47%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	155	692	150	51	13	97%	5.2	19.8%	7.7%	12.1%	1.8%	4.65	3.39	+2.9
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	155	692	150	51	13	97%	5.2	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	1.9%	4.65	3.24	+3.2
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	177	748	196	60	18	100%	5.7	26.0%	8.0%	18.0%	2.2%	4.48	3.15	+3.8
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	177	748	196	60	18	100%	5.7	26.2%	8.0%	18.2%	2.4%	4.48	3.22	+3.7
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	124	519	130	36	12	100%	5.4	24.3%	6.5%	17.8%	1.9%	3.42	2.93	+3.1
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	124	519	130	36	12	100%	5.4	25.0%	6.9%	18.1%	2.3%	3.42	3.13	+2.7
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	33	183	787	196	55	28	100%	5.5	24.6%	6.9%	17.8%	3.2%	5.02	3.66	+2.8
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	33	183	787	196	55	28	100%	5.5	24.9%	7.0%	17.9%	3.6%	5.02	3.85	+2.3
2019	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	26	25	150	637	150	52	19	96%	5.8	23.5%	8.2%	15.4%	2.6%	3.84	3.60	+2.4
2019	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	26	25	150	637	150	52	19	96%	5.8	23.5%	8.2%	15.4%	3.0%	3.84	3.79	+2.0
2020	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	8	8	39	174	22	11	6	100%	4.9	12.6%	6.3%	6.3%	3.1%	6.69	4.51	+0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	8	8	39	174	22	11	6	100%	4.9	12.6%	6.3%	6.3%	3.4%	6.69	4.82	+0.0
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	30	153	662	163	57	22	100%	5.1	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	2.9%	4.59	3.73	+2.2
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	30	153	662	163	57	22	100%	5.1	24.6%	8.6%	16.0%	3.3%	4.59	3.96	+1.7
2022	30	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	24	24	127	521	134	39	17	100%	5.3	25.7%	7.5%	18.2%	3.0%	3.96	3.54	+2.1
2022	30	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	24	24	127	521	134	39	17	100%	5.3	25.7%	7.5%	18.2%	3.3%	3.96	3.65	+1.9
2023	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	29	29	157	656	142	53	22	100%	5.4	21.6%	8.1%	13.6%	3.1%	4.12	4.01	+1.7
2023	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	29	29	157	656	142	53	22	100%	5.4	21.6%	8.1%	13.6%	3.1%	4.12	4.01	+1.7
2023	31	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	29	29	157	656	142	53	22	100%	5.4	21.6%	8.1%	13.6%	3.4%	4.12	4.12	+1.4
2024	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	23	19	103	439	86	27	11	83%	4.5	19.6%	6.2%	13.4%	2.3%	4.47	3.50	+1.7
2024	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	23	19	103	439	86	27	11	83%	4.5	19.6%	6.2%	13.4%	2.3%	4.47	3.50	+1.7
2024	32	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	23	19	103	439	86	27	11	83%	4.5	19.6%	6.2%	13.4%	2.5%	4.47	3.61	+1.6
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	3	23	99	20	8	6	33%	2.5	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	7.4%	5.96	6.75	-0.6
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	3	23	99	20	8	6	33%	2.5	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	7.4%	5.96	6.75	-0.6
2025	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	3	23	99	20	8	6	33%	2.5	20.2%	8.1%	12.1%	6.1%	5.96	5.84	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			234	223	1231	5235	1223	394	160	95%	5.3	23.4%	7.5%	15.8%	3.1%	4.49	3.76	+16.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	TEX	1	1	6	25	5	2	1	100%	6.0	20.6%	7.7%	12.9%	3.2%	4.51	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	TEX	12	12	70	294	58	24	11	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.2%	11.4%	3.6%	4.70	4.82	+0.1
2028	36	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	62	261	49	23	10	100%	6.2	18.6%	8.8%	9.8%	3.9%	4.99	5.19	-0.2
2027	35	MLB CTX	TEX	12	12	70	296	58	24	11	100%	5.8	19.7%	8.2%	11.4%	3.8%	4.85	4.97	+0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	62	262	49	23	11	100%	6.2	18.6%	8.8%	9.8%	4.2%	5.15	5.35	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		256	245	1362	5790	1329	441	182	96%	5.3	23.0%	7.6%	15.3%	3.1%	4.54	3.86	+17.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	850	195	65	27	96%	5.3	23.0%	7.6%	15.3%	3.1%	4.54	3.86	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		266	254	1390	5934	1365	450	160	95%	5.2	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	2.7%	4.41	3.59	+16.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	37	200	854	196	65	23	95%	5.2	23.0%	7.6%	15.4%	2.7%	4.41	3.59	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jon Gray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	20.6%	7.7%	3.2%	—	4.99	19.2%	10.7%	131	+0.50	—	—	—
Johnny Cueto R 2020 · 4.51 FIP	34	SP	4.51	20.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.280	4.71	17.3%	11.8%	364	+0.20	2.85	1,148	64
Clay Buchholz R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	34	SP	5.36	15.4%	5.9%	5.1%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	433	62
Jake Arrieta R 2020 · 4.36 FIP	34	SP	4.36	16.8%	8.4%	2.9%	.331	5.45	17.7%	9.0%	99	+1.09	2.13	1,046	61
Rob Wooten R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	34	SP	4.98	16.1%	3.6%	5.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	191	59
Josh Lowey R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	34	SP	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	426	59
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.77	264	59
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	58
Kameron Loe R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	34	SP	3.84	11.9%	5.3%	2.0%	.356	3.38	17.1%	9.1%	133	-0.46	3.38	201	55
Lucas Harrell R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	32	SP	3.57	16.2%	10.5%	0.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.57	139	53
Sergio Mitre R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	36	SP	4.76	9.7%	4.8%	3.4%	.282	4.54	11.8%	5.3%	103	-0.22	4.54	156	53
Scott Feldman R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	34	SP	4.58	19.7%	7.0%	4.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	297	52
Mitch Talbot R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	34	SP	3.82	13.7%	5.6%	2.1%	.281	5.01	13.2%	8.9%	59	+1.19	3.82	162	52
Doug Fister R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	34	SP	4.77	13.8%	6.6%	3.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	455	51
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	50
Jonathan Castellanos R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	34	SP	3.40	15.2%	7.4%	1.2%	.314	5.04	9.4%	0.3%	174	+1.64	3.40	394	50
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	50
Alfredo Aceves R 2017 · 5.10 FIP	34	SP	5.10	8.9%	8.9%	3.0%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	4.78	160	50
Edinson Volquez R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	34	SP	4.14	20.4%	12.6%	2.1%	.271	6.11	13.3%	-2.7%	16	+1.97	3.74	498	49
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	49
Kyle Kendrick R 2017 · 5.50 FIP	32	SP	5.50	13.8%	3.9%	5.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	337	49

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	70	19.7%	8.2%	1.38	4.71
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78