Dinelson Lamet

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 228 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	30	MIX3 levels	49	0	51	4.59	3.22	31.3%	10.4%	0.8	K 30.2% · BB 12.8% · FIP 3.47
2023	31	MIX2 levels	25	11	58	7.02	5.15	22.6%	11.9%	-0.4	K 21.2% · BB 11.6% · FIP 5.21
2024	32	MIX2 levels	22	18	90	4.68	4.72	19.4%	13.2%	0.7	K 16.8% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.64
2025	33	No MLB games played
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	35	MLBLAD	6	6	33	4.56	4.49	22.9%	10.0%	0.3
2028PROJ	36	MLBLAD	19	19	114	4.74	4.86	21.9%	10.6%	0.7
2029PROJ	37	MLBLAD	14	14	84	5.05	5.26	20.8%	11.3%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo54

K%50

xwOBA vs10

CompsJesse Estrada (age 35) · Jarrett Grube (age 35) · Chris Smith (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.56

FIP4.49

K%22.9%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%12.9%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p4124.0%

p5022.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.377

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	26	24	105	441	120	44	9	92%	4.1	20.1%	11.8%	8.4%	2.7%	2.99	4.36	—
2015	23	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	26	24	105	441	120	44	9	92%	4.1	27.2%	10.0%	17.2%	2.0%	2.99	3.19	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	150	629	158	60	8	100%	5.4	19.9%	11.0%	8.8%	1.4%	3.00	3.57	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	150	629	158	60	8	100%	5.4	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	1.3%	3.00	2.89	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	153	652	189	72	20	100%	5.3	28.1%	11.2%	16.9%	3.0%	4.23	3.80	+3.0
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	153	652	189	72	20	100%	5.3	29.0%	11.0%	17.9%	3.1%	4.23	3.74	+3.1
2019	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	97	413	138	39	16	100%	4.8	32.7%	9.2%	23.5%	4.1%	4.55	3.74	+1.9
2019	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	97	413	138	39	16	100%	4.8	33.4%	9.4%	24.0%	3.9%	4.55	3.61	+2.1
2020	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	12	12	69	267	93	20	5	100%	5.8	34.8%	7.5%	27.3%	1.8%	2.09	2.11	+3.0
2020	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	12	12	69	267	93	20	5	100%	5.8	34.8%	7.5%	27.3%	1.9%	2.09	2.22	+2.9
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	9	51	225	63	23	7	36%	2.0	27.3%	10.5%	16.7%	2.8%	4.24	3.67	+0.5
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	9	51	225	63	23	7	36%	2.0	28.0%	10.2%	17.8%	3.1%	4.24	3.77	+0.5
2022	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	49	0	51	230	72	24	6	0%	1.0	30.2%	12.8%	17.4%	2.4%	4.59	3.47	+0.7
2022	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	49	0	51	230	72	24	6	0%	1.0	31.3%	10.4%	20.9%	2.6%	4.59	3.22	+0.8
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	11	58	261	59	31	11	44%	2.3	21.2%	11.6%	9.6%	4.4%	7.02	5.21	-0.4
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	11	58	261	59	31	11	44%	2.3	22.6%	11.9%	10.7%	4.2%	7.02	5.15	-0.4
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	90	403	78	53	11	82%	4.1	16.8%	12.2%	4.6%	2.6%	4.68	4.64	+0.8
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	18	90	403	78	53	11	82%	4.1	16.8%	12.2%	4.6%	2.6%	4.68	4.64	+0.8
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	18	90	403	78	53	11	82%	4.1	19.4%	13.2%	6.2%	2.7%	4.68	4.72	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			121	60	368	1586	474	167	53	50%	3.0	29.9%	10.5%	19.4%	3.3%	4.63	3.76	+3.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	LAD	6	6	33	139	32	14	4	100%	5.5	22.9%	10.0%	12.9%	3.1%	4.56	4.49	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	LAD	19	19	114	483	106	51	17	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.6%	11.3%	3.4%	4.74	4.86	+0.7
2029	37	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	84	354	74	40	14	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.3%	9.6%	3.8%	5.05	5.26	+0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	LAD	19	19	114	481	105	51	17	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.6%	11.3%	3.4%	4.74	4.86	+0.7
2029	37	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	84	355	74	40	14	100%	6.0	20.8%	11.3%	9.6%	3.8%	5.05	5.26	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		154	93	566	2423	654	258	83	60%	3.7	27.0%	10.7%	16.3%	3.4%	4.71	4.06	+9.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		54	33	200	856	231	91	29	60%	3.7	27.0%	10.7%	16.3%	3.4%	4.71	4.06	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		236	151	825	3521	879	384	95	64%	3.5	25.0%	10.9%	14.0%	2.7%	3.97	3.86	+8.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	37	200	854	213	93	23	64%	3.5	25.0%	10.9%	14.0%	2.7%	3.97	3.86	+2.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 86 IPFIP 4.59 → 4.64 (+0.04)K% 19.5% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.48%	—	×0.860	16.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.51%	—	×0.900	12.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.60%	÷1.111	×1.100	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 122).

Result: FIP 4.59 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 30 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.26 (+0.36)K% 23.3% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.28%	—	×0.860	20.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×0.900	6.21%
HR / BF /BF	3.45%	÷1.008	×1.100	3.76%

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 12 IPFIP 1.03 → 1.46 (+0.42)K% 36.7% → 32.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.73%	—	×0.880	32.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×1.050	8.57%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.138	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 1.03 → 1.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 7 IPFIP 4.55 → 6.34 (+1.79)K% 28.1% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.12%	—	×0.810	22.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.12%	—	×1.100	3.44%
HR / BF /BF	6.25%	÷0.870	×1.200	8.62%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 4.55 → 6.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 15 IPFIP 4.03 → 4.84 (+0.81)K% 32.2% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.20%	—	×0.880	28.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.78%	—	×1.050	7.12%
HR / BF /BF	5.08%	÷0.950	×1.100	5.89%

Result: FIP 4.03 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 9 IPFIP 3.10 → 4.52 (+1.42)K% 34.1% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.15%	—	×0.770	26.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×1.150	14.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.900	×1.250	3.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 80).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 39 IPFIP 2.75 → 3.13 (+0.39)K% 29.9% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.94%	—	×0.880	26.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.98%	—	×1.050	12.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.087	×1.100	1.21%

Result: FIP 2.75 → 3.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AASan Antonio Missions · 74 IPFIP 2.25 → 2.94 (+0.69)K% 29.2% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.810	23.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.94%	—	×1.100	10.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.64%	÷0.933	×1.200	0.82%

Result: FIP 2.25 → 2.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dinelson Lamet (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	5.03	21.4%	10.6%	198	+0.54	—	—	—
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	61
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	53
Chris Smith R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	35	SP-	3.85	20.8%	8.9%	2.5%	.279	5.08	15.6%	8.1%	130	+1.23	3.79	477	53
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	52
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	50
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	49
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	48
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	46
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	46
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	45
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	45
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	40
J.D. Martin R 2018 · 4.94 FIP	35	SP	4.94	10.4%	11.9%	2.2%	.284	5.89	13.9%	1.1%	125	+0.95	4.79	414	39
Steve Sparks R 2000 · 3.78 FIP	35	SP-	3.78	11.9%	6.5%	1.6%	.283	4.37	11.6%	4.7%	528	+0.59	3.78	1,320	38
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	38
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	38
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	37
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	36
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	35
Josh Lowey R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	34	SP	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	426	35

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	81	26.0%	10.6%	1.30	4.68
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Tylor Megill ('25)	2.0	82	24.3%	9.1%	1.27	4.46
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Dick Selma ('65-'74, 6 WAR*)	4.2	93	24.5%*	11.1%*	1.12*	4.28*
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*