Tylor Megill
P
New York Mets
Age 31
RHP
6'7" / 230 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.9 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 71 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10898vR 89
ERA4.17
FIP4.02
K%26.1%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%15.5%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p8430.7%
K%
p8829.2%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
FB+1.5 (62%)
SI (20%)
CU (7%)
SL-1.6 (23%)
CH-1.9 (7%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 11 | 72 | 302 | 92 | 25 | 2 | 50% | 3.3 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 0.9% | 3.52 | 3.01 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 11 | 72 | 302 | 92 | 25 | 2 | 50% | 3.3 | 30.5% | 8.3% | 22.2% | 0.7% | 3.52 | 1.94 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 130 | 543 | 158 | 39 | 22 | 100% | 5.0 | 27.3% | 7.4% | 19.9% | 4.1% | 4.15 | 3.99 | +2.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 130 | 543 | 158 | 39 | 22 | 100% | 5.0 | 29.1% | 7.2% | 21.9% | 4.1% | 4.15 | 3.77 | +2.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 12 | 57 | 240 | 65 | 16 | 8 | 55% | 2.6 | 25.5% | 6.5% | 19.0% | 3.5% | 5.56 | 3.70 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 12 | 57 | 240 | 65 | 16 | 8 | 55% | 2.6 | 27.1% | 6.7% | 20.4% | 3.3% | 5.56 | 3.49 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 153 | 690 | 119 | 69 | 21 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 4.64 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 153 | 690 | 119 | 69 | 21 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.2% | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 5.40 | 4.68 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 26 | 127 | 535 | 158 | 52 | 13 | 96% | 4.7 | 27.3% | 10.2% | 17.0% | 2.3% | 3.84 | 3.36 | +3.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 27 | 26 | 127 | 535 | 158 | 52 | 13 | 96% | 4.7 | 29.5% | 9.7% | 19.8% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 3.17 | +3.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 20 | 88 | 396 | 118 | 43 | 8 | 100% | 4.4 | 27.5% | 11.3% | 16.2% | 2.0% | 4.18 | 3.34 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 20 | 88 | 396 | 118 | 43 | 8 | 100% | 4.4 | 29.8% | 10.9% | 18.9% | 2.0% | 4.18 | 3.07 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 53 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 71 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 10 | 61 | 256 | 63 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.56 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 71 | 31 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.23 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 63 | 29 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.5% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.56 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 109 | 102 | 537 | 2324 | 568 | 223 | 74 | 94% | 4.9 | 24.5% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 3.99 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 38 | 200 | 866 | 212 | 83 | 28 | 94% | 4.9 | 24.5% | 9.6% | 14.9% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 148 | 126 | 627 | 2706 | 648 | 256 | 75 | 85% | 4.2 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 3.80 | +11.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 40 | 200 | 864 | 207 | 82 | 24 | 85% | 4.2 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 3.80 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tylor Megill (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.02 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.41 | 24.9% | 13.7% | 127 | +0.39 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Richards R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.09 | 26.9% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .276 | 4.36 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 188 | +0.27 | 2.34 | 577 | 59 |
| Yu Darvish R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.36 | 27.2% | 11.7% | 3.8% | .282 | 3.50 | 30.5% | 24.0% | 421 | -0.86 | 1.91 | 1,253 | 57 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 57 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.04 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.7% | .261 | 4.12 | 22.8% | 12.5% | 96 | +0.08 | 2.88 | 533 | 56 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 54 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 54 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 54 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 53 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 53 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.24 | 25.4% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .310 | 4.86 | 19.3% | 11.5% | 188 | +1.62 | 3.24 | 592 | 53 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.58 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% | .259 | 5.41 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 218 | +0.83 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 53 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2028 · 2.98 FIP | 33 | SP | 2.98 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.3% | .333 | 4.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 184 | +1.19 | 2.98 | 407 | 53 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 52 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 52 |
| Yohan Pino R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 51 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 50 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 50 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 50 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.57 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .266 | 4.61 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 90 | +0.04 | 3.61 | 605 | 50 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 50 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 25.2% | 11.0% | 1.10 | 4.28 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |