Tylor Megill
P
New York Mets
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 31
RHP
6'7" / 230 lbs
MLB
Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.13
FIP3.99
xFIP3.73
SIERA3.74
K%25.7%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%15.3%
IP72
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†6060
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p8430.7%
K%
p8829.2%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
FB+1.5 (62%)
SI (20%)
CU (7%)
SL-1.6 (23%)
CH-1.9 (7%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 22 | 11 | 72 | 302 | 92 | 25 | 2 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 0.9% | 3.52 | 3.02 | +1.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 26 | 26 | 130 | 543 | 158 | 39 | 22 | 27.3% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 4.15 | 4.00 | +1.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | New York Mets | 22 | 12 | 57 | 240 | 65 | 16 | 8 | 25.5% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 5.56 | 3.75 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 31 | 31 | 153 | 690 | 119 | 69 | 21 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 5.40 | 4.62 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | New York Mets | 27 | 26 | 127 | 535 | 158 | 52 | 13 | 27.3% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 3.39 | +2.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | New York Mets | 20 | 20 | 88 | 396 | 118 | 43 | 8 | 27.5% | 11.3% | 2.1% | 4.18 | 3.34 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 22 | — | 22 | 91 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 26.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | 4.19 | 3.99 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 74 | 31 | 8 | 25.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.10 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 69 | 30 | 8 | 25.0% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.23 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 64 | 29 | 7 | 24.3% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 58 | 28 | 7 | 23.6% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 53 | 27 | 7 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 47 | 25 | 7 | 22.0% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 4.75 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 148 | 126 | 627 | 2706 | 648 | 256 | 76 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 3.81 | +10.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 40 | 200 | 864 | 207 | 82 | 24 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.45 | 3.81 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tylor Megill (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 26.3% | 10.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.23 | 25.0% | 14.3% | 197 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 67 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 67 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 67 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 66 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 66 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 66 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 66 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 65 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 65 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 65 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 64 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 64 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 64 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 63 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 63 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 63 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 62 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 62 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 62 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 62 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-2
MLB Debut 2021
Service 4.180 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Arb-3 | $5M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $4M | +$0.0M | ||