Tylor Megill

P New York Mets

Age 32 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 0.9 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANArb-3FA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	31	31	153	5.40	4.68	17.2%	10.0%	1.3	K 17.0% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.61
2024	29	MIX4 levels	27	26	127	3.84	3.17	29.5%	9.7%	3.5	K 27.0% · BB 9.7% · FIP 3.33
2025	30	MIX3 levels	20	20	88	4.18	3.07	29.8%	10.9%	2.5	K 27.4% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.33
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	32	MLBNYM	6	6	39	4.03	3.94	27.4%	10.3%	0.7
2028PROJ	33	MLBNYM	10	10	59	4.15	4.22	26.5%	10.8%	0.8
2029PROJ	34	MLBNYM	9	9	54	4.38	4.53	25.6%	11.3%	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service5.180First FA2028

2027Arb-3$4M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%88

FB Velo62

xwOBA vs56

CompsMatt Shoemaker (age 32) · Elian Leyva (age 30) · Zack Segovia (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10698vR 89

ERA4.03

FIP3.94

K%27.4%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%17.0%

Proj IP39

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p8430.7%

p8829.2%

xwOBA vs

p560.306

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2021

Service 5.180 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-3	$4M	+0.7	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	11	72	302	92	25	2	50%	3.3	22.2%	10.4%	11.9%	0.9%	3.52	3.02	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	11	72	302	92	25	2	50%	3.3	30.5%	8.3%	22.2%	0.7%	3.52	1.94	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	130	543	158	39	22	100%	5.0	27.3%	7.4%	19.9%	4.1%	4.15	3.99	+2.2
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	130	543	158	39	22	100%	5.0	29.1%	7.2%	21.9%	4.1%	4.15	3.77	+2.5
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	12	57	240	65	16	8	55%	2.6	25.5%	6.5%	19.0%	3.5%	5.56	3.70	+1.2
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	12	57	240	65	16	8	55%	2.6	27.1%	6.7%	20.4%	3.3%	5.56	3.49	+1.3
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	153	690	119	69	21	100%	4.9	17.0%	9.8%	7.1%	3.1%	5.40	4.61	+1.4
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	153	690	119	69	21	100%	4.9	17.2%	10.0%	7.2%	3.0%	5.40	4.68	+1.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	26	127	535	158	52	13	96%	4.7	27.0%	9.7%	17.4%	2.4%	3.84	3.33	+3.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	4 levels	27	26	127	535	158	52	13	96%	4.7	27.0%	9.7%	17.4%	2.4%	3.84	3.33	+3.2
2024	29	MIX RAW	4 levels	27	26	127	535	158	52	13	96%	4.7	29.5%	9.7%	19.8%	2.4%	3.84	3.17	+3.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	88	396	118	43	8	100%	4.4	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	2.1%	4.18	3.33	+2.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	88	396	118	43	8	100%	4.4	27.4%	11.0%	16.4%	2.1%	4.18	3.33	+2.2
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	88	396	118	43	8	100%	4.4	29.8%	10.9%	18.9%	2.0%	4.18	3.07	+2.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			88	81	410	1788	435	163	58	92%	4.7	24.3%	9.1%	15.2%	3.2%	4.46	4.01	+6.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	NYM	6	6	39	165	45	17	4	100%	6.5	27.4%	10.3%	17.0%	2.7%	4.03	3.94	+0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYM	10	10	59	251	66	27	7	100%	5.9	26.5%	10.8%	15.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.22	+0.8
2029	34	MLB MLE	NYM	9	9	54	228	58	26	7	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.3%	14.3%	3.2%	4.38	4.53	+0.5
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYM	10	10	59	249	66	27	7	100%	5.9	26.5%	10.8%	15.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.22	+0.8
2029	34	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	54	228	58	26	7	100%	6.0	25.6%	11.3%	14.3%	3.2%	4.38	4.53	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	100	523	2267	560	216	73	93%	4.9	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	3.2%	4.42	3.98	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	38	200	867	214	83	28	93%	4.9	24.7%	9.5%	15.2%	3.2%	4.42	3.98	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		148	126	627	2706	646	250	76	85%	4.2	23.9%	9.2%	14.7%	2.8%	4.45	3.79	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	40	200	864	206	80	24	85%	4.2	23.9%	9.2%	14.7%	2.8%	4.45	3.79	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 15 IPFIP 4.37 → 4.38 (+0.02)K% 22.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.860	19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.86%	—	×0.900	11.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.167	×1.100	2.69%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 4.37 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 5 IPFIP -1.52 → -0.47 (+1.05)K% 61.9% → 50.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	61.90%	—	×0.810	50.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.100	5.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.990	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP -1.52 → -0.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 44 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.33 (+0.28)K% 31.5% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.49%	—	×0.860	27.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.05%	—	×0.900	9.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷1.059	×1.100	2.30%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 27 IPFIP 4.61 → 4.76 (+0.15)K% 11.4% → 9.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.38%	—	×0.860	9.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.94%	—	×0.900	8.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.68%

Result: FIP 4.61 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 4 IPFIP 3.73 → 3.98 (+0.25)K% 15.0% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.880	13.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.00%	—	×1.050	15.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.033	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 3.73 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 6 IPFIP 1.20 → 3.02 (+1.82)K% 55.0% → 44.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	55.00%	—	×0.810	44.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷0.895	×1.200	6.71%

Result: FIP 1.20 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 26 IPFIP 1.07 → 1.91 (+0.84)K% 40.4% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.38%	—	×0.810	32.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.73%	—	×1.100	7.40%
HR / BF /BF	0.96%	÷0.995	×1.200	1.16%

Result: FIP 1.07 → 1.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 14 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.04 (+0.45)K% 28.3% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.33%	—	×0.880	24.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.050	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.039	×1.100	3.53%

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tylor Megill (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	27.4%	10.3%	2.7%	—	4.37	26.1%	15.0%	114	+0.43	—	—	—
Matt Shoemaker R 2019 · 3.80 FIP	32	SP	3.80	22.2%	8.3%	2.8%	.181	5.06	18.8%	11.1%	159	+1.26	3.12	728	59
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	57
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	57
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	57
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	56
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	56
Bryan Evans R 2019 · 3.89 FIP	32	SP	3.89	18.7%	10.4%	1.9%	.450	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	231	55
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	55
Brandon Beachy R 2019 · 4.19 FIP	32	SP	4.19	17.4%	9.5%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	1.97	364	54
Jose Oyervides R 2015 · 3.01 FIP	33	SP	3.01	19.1%	6.2%	1.4%	.333	4.09	21.9%	14.5%	184	+1.08	3.01	407	54
Aaron Wilkerson R 2021 · 3.33 FIP	32	SP	3.33	24.6%	5.6%	2.9%	.300	5.45	21.3%	15.4%	47	+2.12	2.75	902	53
Chuck Smith R 2001 · 3.99 FIP	31	SP	3.99	18.4%	8.1%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	211	53
Dennis O'Grady R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.2%	8.1%	1.7%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	52
Mitch Lively R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	31	SP-	3.47	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	158	52
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	51
Logan Duran R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	33	SP	3.42	15.8%	10.0%	0.7%	.287	3.77	15.3%	6.4%	95	+0.35	3.42	187	51
Danny Gutierrez R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	30	SP	4.11	15.1%	6.1%	2.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	239	50
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	49
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2019 · 3.77 FIP	32	SP	3.77	19.4%	8.9%	2.2%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	689	49
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	49

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	71	24.9%	9.6%	1.23	4.39
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*
Ed Nunez ('82-'94, 2 WAR*)	3.3	54	24.5%*	9.5%*	1.24*	4.37*
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12