Ryne Nelson

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 184 lbs MLB peak 0.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MLBARI	28	25	151	4.24	3.53	20.0%	5.1%	3.4
2025	27	MLBARI	33	23	154	3.39	3.62	21.3%	6.6%	3.3
2026	28	MIX3 levels	22	18	91	4.95	4.85	18.5%	5.9%	0.6	K 17.6% · BB 6.1% · FIP 5.18
2027PROJ	29	MLBARI	12	12	73	4.47	4.63	20.0%	6.3%	0.6
2028PROJ	30	MLBARI	13	13	77	4.69	4.83	19.3%	6.6%	0.5
2029PROJ	31	MLBARI	11	11	66	4.91	5.06	18.5%	7.0%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo77

xwOBA vs19

K%18

CompsClaudio Vargas (age 29) · Domingo Germán (age 29) · Alexi Ogando (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.47

FIP4.63

K%20.0%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%13.7%

Proj IP73

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7796.4

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p1817.6%

xwOBA vs

p190.349

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	116	470	163	40	16	100%	5.3	27.6%	9.5%	18.1%	3.4%	3.17	3.86	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	116	470	163	40	16	100%	5.3	34.7%	8.5%	26.2%	3.4%	3.17	3.12	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	154	662	144	52	27	100%	5.3	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	4.6%	4.96	5.04	+0.6
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	154	662	144	52	27	100%	5.3	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	4.1%	4.96	4.52	+1.6
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	31	166	707	105	53	27	94%	5.0	14.7%	7.4%	7.3%	4.1%	5.11	5.02	+0.7
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	31	166	707	105	53	27	94%	5.0	14.9%	7.5%	7.4%	3.8%	5.11	4.91	+0.9
2024	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	25	151	630	126	32	17	89%	5.4	20.0%	5.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.24	3.62	+3.3
2024	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	25	151	630	126	32	17	89%	5.4	20.0%	5.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.24	3.62	+3.3
2024	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	25	151	630	126	32	17	89%	5.4	20.0%	5.1%	14.9%	2.7%	4.24	3.53	+3.4
2025	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	23	154	619	132	41	17	70%	4.7	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.9%	3.39	3.73	+3.1
2025	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	23	154	619	132	41	17	70%	4.7	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.9%	3.39	3.73	+3.1
2025	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	23	154	619	132	41	17	70%	4.7	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.7%	3.39	3.62	+3.3
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	18	91	390	72	23	18	82%	4.1	17.6%	6.1%	11.5%	5.1%	4.95	5.18	+0.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	18	91	390	72	23	18	82%	4.1	17.6%	6.1%	11.5%	5.1%	4.95	5.18	+0.2
2026	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	18	91	390	72	23	18	82%	4.1	18.5%	5.9%	12.6%	4.6%	4.95	4.85	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			112	93	554	2311	436	147	78	83%	4.9	18.9%	6.4%	12.5%	3.4%	4.30	4.15	+8.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	ARI	12	12	73	308	62	19	11	100%	6.1	20.0%	6.3%	13.7%	3.7%	4.47	4.63	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	77	324	62	21	13	100%	5.9	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	3.9%	4.69	4.83	+0.5
2029	31	MLB MLE	ARI	11	11	66	281	52	20	12	100%	6.0	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	4.1%	4.91	5.06	+0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	77	325	63	21	13	100%	5.9	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	3.9%	4.69	4.83	+0.5
2029	31	MLB CTX	ARI	11	11	66	279	52	19	12	100%	6.0	18.5%	7.0%	11.6%	4.1%	4.91	5.06	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		136	117	698	2916	550	188	102	86%	5.1	18.9%	6.4%	12.4%	3.5%	4.40	4.25	+9.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	34	200	836	158	54	29	86%	5.1	18.9%	6.4%	12.4%	3.5%	4.40	4.25	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		167	148	832	3478	689	248	131	89%	5.0	19.8%	7.1%	12.7%	3.8%	4.32	4.40	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	36	200	836	166	60	32	89%	5.0	19.8%	7.1%	12.7%	3.8%	4.32	4.40	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAAReno Aces · 22 IPFIP 5.12 → 5.30 (+0.18)K% 10.2% → 8.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.23%	—	×0.860	8.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×0.900	7.16%
HR / BF /BF	3.41%	÷1.012	×1.100	3.71%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 5.12 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 136 IPFIP 4.60 → 5.19 (+0.59)K% 21.6% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.59%	—	×0.880	18.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.93%	—	×1.050	8.32%
HR / BF /BF	4.22%	÷0.965	×1.100	4.81%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 4.60 → 5.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 77 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.13 (+0.51)K% 32.9% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.91%	—	×0.810	26.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.23%	—	×1.100	9.05%
HR / BF /BF	4.11%	÷1.271	×1.200	3.88%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 154).

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.13, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hillsboro Hops · 39 IPFIP 2.09 → 3.31 (+1.22)K% 38.3% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.31%	—	×0.770	29.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.150	10.45%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷0.972	×1.250	2.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 3.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryne Nelson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.7%	—	4.94	18.9%	12.2%	143	+0.31	—	—	—
Claudio Vargas R 2007 · 4.76 FIP	29	SP-	4.76	17.7%	8.4%	3.8%	.307	4.10	16.8%	8.2%	98	-0.66	3.66	765	61
Domingo Germán R 2022 · 4.16 FIP	29	SP	4.16	19.5%	6.4%	3.5%	.257	4.65	22.6%	13.9%	204	+0.49	3.29	777	61
Alexi Ogando R 2013 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	16.8%	9.3%	2.5%	.249	4.43	19.0%	8.4%	122	+0.21	2.83	538	60
Victor Santos R 2006 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	15.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.347	5.78	16.9%	7.4%	63	+1.36	4.09	602	59
Ross Ohlendorf R 2012 · 4.60 FIP	29	SP-	4.60	16.7%	10.3%	2.9%	.337	3.67	20.8%	14.6%	116	-0.93	3.30	617	59
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	59
David Hale R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	29	SP	3.54	14.5%	4.3%	2.1%	.342	3.74	16.2%	9.8%	157	+0.20	3.30	581	58
Dave Bush R 2009 · 4.55 FIP	29	SP	4.55	17.5%	6.9%	3.7%	.307	4.70	13.7%	6.7%	212	+0.15	3.65	1,141	57
Paul Byrd R 2000 · 5.54 FIP	29	SP	5.54	14.3%	8.9%	4.6%	.269	4.48	13.1%	8.6%	332	-1.06	2.13	1,697	56
Andrew Cashner R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP	4.59	19.0%	9.7%	3.4%	.307	4.56	14.5%	5.4%	470	-0.03	2.94	1,185	55
Matt Harvey R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	29	SP	4.17	19.8%	5.3%	3.8%	.294	4.74	16.9%	9.2%	222	+0.57	1.87	1,044	55
Kevin Slowey R 2013 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	19.2%	4.6%	3.2%	.325	3.53	14.2%	9.5%	37	-0.28	3.53	662	55
Brian Tollberg R 2002 · 4.98 FIP	29	SP	4.98	11.5%	5.9%	3.8%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	297	55
Bud Norris R 2014 · 3.76 FIP	29	SP	3.76	20.2%	7.3%	2.6%	.270	4.10	21.7%	12.9%	258	+0.34	3.51	1,221	55
Brian Bannister R 2010 · 5.42 FIP	29	SP	5.42	13.3%	8.6%	4.3%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	667	55
Kenta Maeda R 2017 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP	3.81	25.1%	5.9%	3.8%	.273	3.24	28.7%	21.7%	346	-0.57	2.87	1,092	55
Dillon Gee R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	29	SP	3.67	14.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.339	4.47	17.1%	11.1%	252	+0.80	3.55	1,020	53
Jeremy Hefner R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	16.8%	9.1%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	322	53
John Maine R 2010 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	20.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.91	582	53
Masahiro Tanaka R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	29	SP	3.71	25.0%	5.5%	3.7%	.279	4.02	20.2%	15.1%	230	+0.31	2.82	1,054	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	110	19.0%	6.6%	1.37	4.41
Lee Stange ('61-'70, 9 WAR*)	6.1	135	17.8%*	6.6%*	1.36*	4.14*
Jim Willoughby ('71-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.8	79	16.0%*	6.2%*	1.42*	4.13*
Tom Walker ('72-'77, 1 WAR*)	2.1	83	20.9%*	7.5%*	1.28*	4.32*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Vidal Nuño ('18)	1.9	75	19.6%	6.6%	1.55	4.06