Ryne Nelson
P
Arizona Diamondbacks
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 184 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 1.6 · 2026
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION83 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.47
FIP4.37
K%18.6%
BB%6.1%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7596.3
Whiff%
p1921.0%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p190.349
SL+1.2 (20%)
SI (4%)
CU (10%)
CT-1.0 (10%)
FB-4.6 (61%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 116 | 470 | 163 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 5.3 | 27.6% | 9.5% | 18.1% | 3.0% | 3.17 | 3.62 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 116 | 470 | 163 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 5.3 | 34.7% | 8.5% | 26.2% | 3.4% | 3.17 | 3.12 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 154 | 662 | 144 | 52 | 27 | 100% | 5.3 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 4.8% | 4.96 | 5.11 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 154 | 662 | 144 | 52 | 27 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 13.9% | 4.1% | 4.96 | 4.52 | +1.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 31 | 166 | 707 | 105 | 53 | 27 | 94% | 5.0 | 14.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 5.11 | 4.85 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 31 | 166 | 707 | 105 | 53 | 27 | 94% | 5.0 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 5.11 | 4.91 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 28 | 25 | 151 | 630 | 126 | 32 | 17 | 89% | 5.4 | 20.0% | 5.1% | 14.9% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 3.47 | +3.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 28 | 25 | 151 | 630 | 126 | 32 | 17 | 89% | 5.4 | 20.0% | 5.1% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 3.53 | +3.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 23 | 154 | 619 | 132 | 41 | 17 | 70% | 4.7 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 14.7% | 2.6% | 3.39 | 3.58 | +3.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 23 | 154 | 619 | 132 | 41 | 17 | 70% | 4.7 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 3.39 | 3.62 | +3.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 15 | 15 | 83 | 355 | 62 | 21 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.5% | 5.9% | 11.5% | 5.1% | 4.97 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 56 | 235 | 44 | 14 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.6% | 6.1% | 12.4% | 3.8% | 4.47 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | ARI | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 44 | 14 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.6% | 6.1% | 12.4% | 3.8% | 4.52 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 139 | 590 | 106 | 35 | 27 | — | — | 17.9% | 6.0% | 11.9% | 4.5% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 139 | 586 | 106 | 35 | 27 | — | — | 18.0% | 6.0% | 12.0% | 4.6% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 144 | 607 | 111 | 39 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 6.3% | 11.9% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 4.89 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 135 | 570 | 100 | 38 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.6% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 5.01 | 5.10 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 89 | 37 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.8% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 5.20 | 5.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 111 | 39 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.3% | 6.3% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 4.92 | 4.94 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 100 | 38 | 24 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.6% | 6.7% | 10.9% | 4.2% | 5.06 | 5.15 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 126 | 532 | 89 | 37 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.8% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 4.4% | 5.25 | 5.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 185 | 170 | 1011 | 4236 | 776 | 273 | 159 | 92% | 5.5 | 18.3% | 6.4% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.43 | +11.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 34 | 200 | 838 | 154 | 54 | 31 | 92% | 5.4 | 18.3% | 6.4% | 11.9% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 160 | 145 | 824 | 3443 | 682 | 246 | 122 | 91% | 5.2 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +10.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 35 | 200 | 835 | 166 | 60 | 30 | 91% | 5.2 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 12.7% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryne Nelson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 20.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | — | 5.10 | 17.6% | 10.9% | 405 | +0.99 | — | — | — |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.05 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 4.5% | .285 | 4.43 | 21.3% | 13.3% | 438 | -0.62 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 48 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .280 | 3.83 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 269 | -0.68 | 3.24 | 592 | 48 |
| Charlie Morton R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.11 | 27.7% | 18.9% | 331 | -0.44 | 2.55 | 1,534 | 48 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 47 |
| Cory Riordan R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.19 | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 154 | 46 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 45 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.11 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .330 | 5.14 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 62 | +1.03 | 3.49 | 355 | 45 |
| Thad Weber R 2028 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.82 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.19 | 4.55 | 363 | 45 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.77 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +0.84 | 3.77 | 786 | 45 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.60 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .302 | 4.01 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 233 | -0.59 | 3.86 | 368 | 45 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 44 |
| Matt Garza R 2029 · 4.78 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.78 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 3.6% | .315 | 4.45 | 15.5% | 7.7% | 216 | -0.33 | 4.12 | 365 | 44 |
| Manuel Flores R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.14 | 13.8% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.61 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 263 | -0.53 | 3.55 | 515 | 44 |
| Jason Forjet R 2024 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 44 |
| Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.43 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.19 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | -0.24 | 3.90 | 810 | 44 |
| Miguel González R 2029 · 4.59 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.59 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 15.9% | 9.0% | 325 | -0.34 | 3.73 | 469 | 44 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.92 | 17.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .282 | 4.71 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 142 | +0.79 | 3.92 | 277 | 44 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.34 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 1.6% | .297 | 4.27 | 12.1% | 3.9% | 143 | +0.93 | 3.34 | 262 | 44 |
| Kyle Davies R 2029 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 13.8% | 6.1% | 1.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 153 | 44 |
| JC Ramírez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.58 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 3.5% | .287 | 5.37 | 12.2% | 2.1% | 41 | +0.79 | 3.73 | 369 | 44 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 126 | 18.2% | 6.6% | 1.49 | 4.86 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Jordan Zimmermann ('19) | 5 | 142 | 17.2% | 5.2% | 1.44 | 5.06 |
| Matt Harvey ('21) | 6 | 120 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 1.33 | 4.98 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |