Ryne Nelson — OGILVIE

Ryne Nelson P Arizona Diamondbacks

+1.8 WAR

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 184 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.8 · 2026

ERA4.24

FIP4.19

xFIP4.52

SIERA4.41

K%20.5%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%14.0%

IP150

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.8peak

2026

K†5050

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p5425.9%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

SL+1.2 (18%)

SI (4%)

CU (9%)

CT-1.0 (7%)

FB-4.6 (65%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	23	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	22	22	116	470	163	40	16	27.6%	9.5%	3.3%	3.17	3.79	+2.0
2022	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	29	29	154	662	144	52	27	19.4%	8.2%	4.6%	4.96	5.05	+0.4
2023	25	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	31	166	707	105	53	27	14.7%	7.5%	3.8%	5.11	4.88	+0.8
2024	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	25	151	630	126	32	17	20.0%	5.1%	2.7%	4.24	3.54	+3.0
2025	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	23	154	619	132	41	17	21.3%	6.6%	2.9%	3.39	3.72	+2.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	4	4	20	86	19	8	4	22.1%	9.3%	4.7%	3.54	4.97	-0.0
ROS	28	MLB	ARI	22	22	120	505	108	36	16	21.4%	7.1%	3.2%	4.07	3.97	+1.8
2026 Total	28	MLB	ARI	—	—	140	591	127	44	20	21.5%	7.4%	3.4%	3.99	4.11	+1.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	ARI	23	23	127	537	112	39	18	20.9%	7.2%	3.3%	4.43	4.42	+1.3
2028	30	MLB	ARI	21	21	115	485	99	35	16	20.4%	7.3%	3.3%	4.48	4.51	+1.0
2029	31	MLB	ARI	19	19	103	435	86	32	15	19.8%	7.4%	3.4%	4.56	4.62	+0.8
2030	32	MLB	ARI	17	17	92	388	74	29	14	19.1%	7.5%	3.5%	4.66	4.73	+0.5
2031	33	MLB	ARI	15	15	82	345	64	27	12	18.5%	7.7%	3.6%	4.78	4.86	+0.3
2032	34	MLB	ARI	13	13	72	305	60	22	11	19.8%	7.1%	3.7%	4.75	4.73	+0.3
2033	35	MLB	ARI	12	12	63	267	51	20	10	19.0%	7.3%	3.8%	4.83	4.88	+0.1
2034	36	MLB	ARI	55	—	55	232	42	18	9	18.3%	7.6%	3.9%	4.96	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			149	134	761	3174	639	233	112	20.1%	7.4%	3.5%	4.22	4.26	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—			39	35	200	834	168	61	29	20.1%	7.4%	3.5%	4.22	4.26	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryne Nelson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.17	21.1%	6.6%	3.0%	—	4.51	20.4%	13.1%	345	+0.34	—	—	—
Mario Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	12.6%	6.0%	2.9%	.302	4.12	16.2%	10.8%	233	-0.24	3.93	368	49
Charlie Morton R 2029 · 3.48 FIP	31	SP	3.48	17.9%	6.3%	2.0%	.302	3.15	27.7%	18.9%	331	-0.33	2.52	1,534	49
Manuel Flores R 2027 · 4.00 FIP	29	SP	4.00	13.8%	7.1%	2.1%	.317	3.58	14.4%	9.2%	263	-0.42	3.48	515	48
Greg Peavey R 2025 · 4.37 FIP	27	SP	4.37	11.2%	6.5%	2.5%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	147	48
Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.89 FIP	28	SP	4.89	18.5%	8.2%	4.2%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.64	3.30	1,146	48
Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 4.07 FIP	28	SP	4.07	16.3%	9.1%	2.2%	.330	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	62	+0.88	3.42	355	48
Cory Riordan R 2028 · 4.21 FIP	30	SP	4.21	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	154	48
Nate Long R 2027 · 4.69 FIP	29	SP	4.69	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	151	47
Thad Weber R 2028 · 4.64 FIP	30	SP	4.64	13.7%	6.4%	3.5%	.293	4.59	11.2%	5.7%	202	-0.05	4.36	363	47
Matt Garza R 2029 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	15.6%	8.1%	3.6%	.315	4.32	15.5%	7.7%	216	-0.49	4.03	365	47
Matt Buschmann R 2029 · 4.02 FIP	31	SP	4.02	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.83	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.02	277	47
Kyle Davies R 2029 · 3.55 FIP	31	SP	3.55	13.8%	6.1%	1.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	153	47
Brandon Sinnery R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	25	SP	4.75	11.0%	6.9%	3.1%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.75	154	47
Toru Murata R 2028 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	13.3%	6.9%	2.1%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.39	3.63	267	47
Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2024 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	15.0%	8.9%	3.1%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	278	46
Javier Solano R 2025 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP	4.54	12.6%	4.3%	3.6%	.289	5.17	14.7%	10.1%	130	+0.63	3.67	506	46
Matt Benedict R 2024 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	10.3%	4.8%	2.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	130	46
Elih Villanueva R 2027 · 3.82 FIP	29	SP	3.82	11.0%	5.5%	1.7%	.269	5.50	14.1%	8.1%	57	+1.68	3.82	225	46
Zach Petrick R 2024 · 3.38 FIP	26	SP	3.38	14.8%	4.2%	1.8%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	157	46
Miguel González R 2029 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.28	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.25	3.76	469	45

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.116 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$3M	+1.8	$14M	+$11M
2027	Arb-2	$4M	+1.3	$11M	+$6M
2028	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$8M	+$3M
Totals		$13M		$34M	+$21M