Ryne Nelson — OGILVIE

Ryne Nelson P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 184 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.9 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION87 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.22

FIP4.17

K%18.6%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%12.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 91 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p1921.0%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p190.349

SL+1.2 (20%)

SI (4%)

CU (10%)

CT-1.0 (10%)

FB-4.6 (61%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2022

Service 3.116 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.2M	—	—	—
2027	Arb-2	$4M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.2M		$-2M	-$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	116	470	163	40	16	100%	5.3	27.6%	9.5%	18.1%	3.4%	3.17	3.86	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	116	470	163	40	16	100%	5.3	34.7%	8.5%	26.2%	3.4%	3.17	3.12	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	154	662	144	52	27	100%	5.3	19.4%	8.2%	11.2%	4.6%	4.96	5.04	-0.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	154	662	144	52	27	100%	5.3	21.8%	7.9%	13.9%	4.1%	4.96	4.52	+0.7
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	31	166	707	105	53	27	94%	5.0	14.6%	7.4%	7.2%	4.1%	5.11	5.03	-0.2
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	31	166	707	105	53	27	94%	5.0	14.6%	7.4%	7.2%	4.1%	5.11	5.03	-0.2
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	31	166	707	105	53	27	94%	5.0	14.9%	7.5%	7.4%	3.8%	5.11	4.91	-0.0
2024	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	25	151	630	126	32	17	89%	5.4	20.0%	5.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.24	3.62	+2.3
2024	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	25	151	630	126	32	17	89%	5.4	20.0%	5.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.24	3.62	+2.3
2024	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	25	151	630	126	32	17	89%	5.4	20.0%	5.1%	14.9%	2.7%	4.24	3.53	+2.5
2025	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	23	154	619	132	41	17	70%	4.7	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.9%	3.39	3.73	+2.2
2025	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	23	154	619	132	41	17	70%	4.7	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.9%	3.39	3.73	+2.2
2025	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	33	23	154	619	132	41	17	70%	4.7	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.7%	3.39	3.62	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			108	93	550	2292	432	145	78	86%	5.1	18.8%	6.3%	12.5%	3.4%	4.30	4.16	+4.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	18	18	87	371	68	21	18	100%	4.8	17.5%	5.9%	11.5%	5.4%	4.97	5.32	-0.4
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	18	18	87	371	68	21	18	100%	4.8	17.5%	5.9%	11.5%	5.4%	4.97	5.32	-0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	ARI	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	100%	1.0	66.7%	0.0%	66.7%	0.0%	0.00	-2.53	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	ARI	2	2	3	13	4	0	0	100%	1.4	30.8%	0.0%	30.8%	0.0%	6.75	0.50	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	ARI	15	15	83	355	62	21	18	100%	5.6	17.5%	5.9%	11.5%	5.1%	4.97	5.16	-0.2
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	ARI	15	15	83	355	62	21	18	100%	5.6	17.5%	5.9%	11.5%	5.1%	4.97	5.16	-0.2
ROS	28	MLB MLE	ARI	1	1	4	17	3	1	1	100%	4.1	18.6%	6.1%	12.4%	3.4%	4.22	4.17	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	ARI	1	1	4	17	3	1	1	100%	4.0	18.6%	6.1%	12.4%	3.2%	4.12	4.07	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	91	388	71	22	19	—	—	18.3%	5.7%	12.7%	4.8%	4.93	5.27	-0.5
FULL	28	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	87	369	71	22	19	—	—	19.3%	6.0%	13.3%	5.0%	5.13	4.99	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	ARI	24	24	144	607	111	39	25	100%	6.0	18.3%	6.3%	11.9%	4.0%	4.92	4.96	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	ARI	23	23	135	570	100	38	24	100%	5.9	17.6%	6.7%	10.9%	4.2%	5.07	5.17	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	ARI	24	24	144	608	111	39	23	100%	6.0	18.3%	6.3%	11.9%	3.8%	4.80	4.84	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	ARI	22	22	135	570	100	38	23	100%	6.1	17.6%	6.7%	10.9%	4.0%	4.94	5.04	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	140	833	3487	646	223	125	90%	5.4	18.5%	6.4%	12.2%	3.6%	4.49	4.30	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	34	200	837	155	54	30	90%	5.4	18.5%	6.4%	12.2%	3.6%	4.49	4.30	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		163	148	828	3459	685	246	131	91%	5.1	19.8%	7.1%	12.7%	3.8%	4.32	4.41	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	36	200	836	165	59	32	91%	5.1	19.8%	7.1%	12.7%	3.8%	4.32	4.41	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryne Nelson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	20.5%	6.3%	3.1%	—	5.06	17.9%	11.4%	279	+0.83	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,146	63
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,048	62
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	981	61
Rick Porcello R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	28	SP	4.46	20.5%	5.3%	4.4%	.320	3.98	21.1%	15.4%	425	-0.48	3.13	1,023	59
Julio Teheran R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	28	SP	4.23	21.5%	10.6%	2.9%	.257	7.66	13.4%	2.7%	31	+3.43	3.61	1,134	58
Nathan Eovaldi R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	28	SP	3.49	22.2%	4.2%	3.2%	.283	3.44	25.1%	19.2%	298	-0.05	2.44	1,378	58
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	890	58
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	58
Masahiro Tanaka R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	25.8%	5.3%	4.4%	.300	3.90	22.1%	16.9%	386	-0.09	3.34	918	57
Chris Tillman R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	28	SP	3.92	19.6%	9.1%	2.4%	.277	5.96	12.2%	0.4%	144	+2.04	3.92	489	57
Michael Wacha R 2019 · 5.42 FIP	28	SP	5.42	18.5%	9.1%	5.0%	.307	4.31	21.8%	16.0%	286	-1.11	3.57	1,638	55
Chris Archer R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	29.2%	7.0%	3.3%	.322	4.20	26.2%	17.7%	268	+0.89	2.85	1,018	55
Sonny Gray R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	28	SP-	3.79	21.1%	9.8%	2.2%	.320	3.21	28.5%	19.1%	367	-0.58	2.55	1,792	55
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,538	54
Michael Pineda R 2017 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	22.4%	5.1%	4.6%	.300	3.51	23.2%	18.4%	173	-0.85	2.00	786	53
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,134	53
JC Ramírez R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	16.9%	7.7%	3.3%	.287	5.48	12.2%	2.1%	41	+1.01	3.75	369	52
Domingo Germán R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP-	4.05	23.9%	6.6%	3.9%	.269	4.54	21.6%	13.5%	277	+0.49	3.29	777	52
Mike Leake R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SP	3.75	16.5%	3.8%	2.8%	.314	4.25	15.7%	11.9%	569	+0.50	3.69	937	51
Jordan Lyles R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	28	SP	4.34	24.4%	8.8%	4.0%	.283	4.70	18.1%	10.8%	417	+0.36	3.44	1,080	50

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	139	18.8%	6.4%	1.46	4.76
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37