Matt Andriese

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 37 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	31	MIX2 levels	37	0	52	4.82	3.52	22.8%	5.5%	0.6	K 22.5% · BB 5.9% · FIP 3.71
2023	33	AAAOklahoma City…	21	19	94	6.05	5.15	18.6%	6.0%	—	K 16.0% · BB 5.4% · FIP 5.44
2024	34	MIX2 levels	22	1	48	5.06	3.77	18.1%	7.0%	0.4	K 14.6% · BB 7.1% · FIP 3.81
2025	35	No MLB games played
2026	36	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	37	MLBMIA	15	0	16	4.38	4.41	21.5%	8.9%	0.0
2028PROJ	38	MLBMIA	101	0	106	4.66	4.85	20.3%	9.6%	-0.4
2029PROJ	39	MLBMIA	71	0	75	5.03	5.28	19.2%	10.3%	-0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Jonathan Castellanos (age 37) · Juan Sandoval (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.38

FIP4.41

K%21.5%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.5%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	20	131	547	118	27	10	53%	3.4	20.1%	5.0%	15.0%	1.9%	3.24	3.08	+3.7
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	20	131	547	118	27	10	53%	3.4	21.6%	4.9%	16.6%	1.8%	3.24	2.91	+4.0
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	25	162	669	153	31	19	71%	4.6	22.1%	4.7%	17.4%	2.9%	4.17	3.42	+3.9
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	25	162	669	153	31	19	71%	4.6	22.9%	4.6%	18.2%	2.8%	4.17	3.31	+4.1
2017	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	93	406	84	28	17	95%	4.4	20.3%	7.2%	13.1%	4.4%	4.44	4.71	+0.7
2017	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	20	93	406	84	28	17	95%	4.4	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	4.2%	4.44	4.57	+0.9
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	6	82	354	83	22	15	14%	2.0	22.9%	5.9%	17.1%	4.7%	5.03	4.47	+0.1
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	6	82	354	83	22	15	14%	2.0	23.4%	6.2%	17.2%	4.2%	5.03	4.25	+0.3
2019	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	3	73	326	83	25	10	5%	1.3	25.5%	7.4%	18.1%	2.7%	5.05	3.39	+1.0
2019	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	57	3	73	326	83	25	10	5%	1.3	25.5%	7.7%	17.8%	3.1%	5.05	3.63	+0.8
2020	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	16	1	32	126	33	11	5	6%	2.0	26.2%	8.7%	17.5%	3.9%	4.50	4.13	+0.2
2020	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	16	1	32	126	33	11	5	6%	2.0	26.2%	8.7%	17.5%	4.0%	4.50	4.10	+0.2
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	52	237	54	13	7	0%	1.4	22.5%	5.9%	16.7%	3.2%	4.82	3.71	+0.5
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	52	237	54	13	7	0%	1.4	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	3.0%	4.82	3.52	+0.6
2023	33	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	21	19	94	419	78	25	21	90%	4.5	16.0%	5.4%	10.6%	5.5%	6.05	5.44	—
2023	33	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	21	19	94	419	78	25	21	90%	4.5	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	5.0%	6.05	5.15	—
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	48	215	39	15	5	5%	2.2	14.6%	7.1%	7.4%	1.9%	5.06	3.81	+0.4
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	48	215	39	15	5	5%	2.2	14.6%	7.1%	7.4%	1.9%	5.06	3.81	+0.4
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	48	215	39	15	5	5%	2.2	18.1%	7.0%	11.2%	2.3%	5.06	3.77	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			221	50	515	2207	481	135	78	23%	2.3	21.8%	6.1%	15.7%	3.5%	4.65	3.99	+3.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	MIA	15	0	16	68	14	6	2	0%	1.1	21.5%	8.9%	12.5%	2.9%	4.38	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	MIA	101	0	106	448	91	43	15	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.4%	4.66	4.85	-0.4
2029	39	MLB MLE	MIA	72	0	75	318	61	33	12	0%	1.0	19.2%	10.3%	8.8%	3.8%	5.03	5.28	-0.6
2028	38	MLB CTX	MIA	101	0	106	448	91	43	15	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.4%	4.66	4.85	-0.4
2029	39	MLB CTX	MIA	71	0	75	317	61	33	12	0%	1.1	19.2%	10.3%	8.8%	3.8%	5.03	5.28	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		394	50	696	2973	633	211	105	13%	1.8	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	3.5%	4.69	4.15	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		113	14	200	854	182	61	30	13%	1.8	21.3%	7.1%	14.2%	3.5%	4.69	4.15	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		289	95	767	3299	689	196	113	33%	2.7	20.9%	5.9%	14.9%	3.4%	4.56	3.96	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	25	200	860	180	51	29	33%	2.7	20.9%	5.9%	14.9%	3.4%	4.56	3.96	+0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 42 IPFIP 3.55 → 3.81 (+0.26)K% 16.9% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.93%	—	×0.860	14.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.94%	—	×0.900	7.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.59%	÷0.925	×1.100	1.89%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 94 IPFIP 5.03 → 5.44 (+0.40)K% 18.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.62%	—	×0.860	16.01%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.97%	—	×0.900	5.37%
HR / BF /BF	5.01%	÷1.006	×1.100	5.48%

Result: FIP 5.03 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAADurham Bulls · 34 IPFIP 1.88 → 2.18 (+0.30)K% 31.0% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.99%	—	×0.880	27.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.93%	—	×1.050	5.18%
HR / BF /BF	1.41%	÷1.167	×1.100	1.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 1.88 → 2.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAADurham Bulls · 65 IPFIP 1.79 → 2.11 (+0.31)K% 26.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.04%	—	×0.880	22.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.77%	—	×1.050	3.96%
HR / BF /BF	0.75%	÷1.039	×1.100	0.80%

Result: FIP 1.79 → 2.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Andriese (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	5.03	19.8%	9.9%	181	+0.62	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	49
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	45
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	45
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	44
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	42
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	41
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	37
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	37
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	36
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	36
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	34
Masato Yoshii R 2002 · 4.15 FIP	37	SP-	4.15	13.4%	5.4%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	757	34
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	34
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	33
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	31
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	28
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	27
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	25
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	24
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	24

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	86	21.3%	7.8%	1.33	4.63
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Tom Walker ('72-'77, 1 WAR*)	2.1	83	20.9%*	7.5%*	1.28*	4.32*
Rich Bordi ('80-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.9	74	20.8%*	7.3%*	1.22*	4.55*