Matt Andriese
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 36
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 110
ERA4.81
FIP4.82
K%16.0%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%8.3%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CT+0.9 (27%)
SI (16%)
CU (15%)
CH (1%)
FB-1.6 (57%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 20 | 131 | 547 | 118 | 27 | 10 | 53% | 3.4 | 20.1% | 5.0% | 15.0% | 1.9% | 3.24 | 3.10 | +3.5 |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 20 | 131 | 547 | 118 | 27 | 10 | 53% | 3.4 | 21.6% | 4.9% | 16.6% | 1.8% | 3.24 | 2.91 | +3.8 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 25 | 162 | 669 | 153 | 31 | 19 | 71% | 4.6 | 22.1% | 4.7% | 17.4% | 2.9% | 4.17 | 3.44 | +3.7 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 25 | 162 | 669 | 153 | 31 | 19 | 71% | 4.6 | 22.9% | 4.6% | 18.2% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 3.31 | +4.0 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 20 | 93 | 406 | 84 | 28 | 17 | 95% | 4.4 | 20.3% | 7.2% | 13.1% | 4.5% | 4.44 | 4.78 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 20 | 93 | 406 | 84 | 28 | 17 | 95% | 4.4 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 13.8% | 4.2% | 4.44 | 4.57 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 6 | 82 | 354 | 83 | 22 | 15 | 14% | 2.0 | 22.9% | 5.9% | 17.1% | 4.2% | 5.03 | 4.23 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 6 | 82 | 354 | 83 | 22 | 15 | 14% | 2.0 | 23.4% | 6.2% | 17.2% | 4.2% | 5.03 | 4.25 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 57 | 3 | 73 | 326 | 83 | 25 | 10 | 5% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 7.4% | 18.1% | 2.5% | 5.05 | 3.24 | +1.4 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 57 | 3 | 73 | 326 | 83 | 25 | 10 | 5% | 1.3 | 25.5% | 7.7% | 17.8% | 3.1% | 5.05 | 3.63 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 16 | 1 | 32 | 126 | 33 | 11 | 5 | 6% | 2.0 | 26.2% | 8.7% | 17.5% | 4.1% | 4.50 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 16 | 1 | 32 | 126 | 33 | 11 | 5 | 6% | 2.0 | 26.2% | 8.7% | 17.5% | 4.0% | 4.50 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 52 | 237 | 54 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.5% | 5.9% | 16.7% | 3.3% | 4.82 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 52 | 237 | 54 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 1.4 | 22.8% | 5.5% | 17.3% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 21 | 19 | 94 | 419 | 78 | 25 | 21 | 90% | 4.5 | 16.4% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 5.4% | 6.05 | 5.50 | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 21 | 19 | 94 | 419 | 78 | 25 | 21 | 90% | 4.5 | 18.6% | 6.0% | 12.6% | 5.0% | 6.05 | 5.15 | — |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 1 | 48 | 215 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 5% | 2.2 | 14.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 2.1% | 5.06 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 1 | 48 | 215 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 5% | 2.2 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 5.06 | 3.77 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 48 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 34 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 28 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 28 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.9% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 263 | 50 | 559 | 2394 | 509 | 151 | 85 | 19% | 2.1 | 21.3% | 6.3% | 15.0% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.04 | +8.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 94 | 18 | 200 | 856 | 182 | 54 | 30 | 19% | 2.1 | 21.3% | 6.3% | 15.0% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 289 | 95 | 767 | 3299 | 691 | 202 | 112 | 33% | 2.7 | 21.0% | 6.1% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 3.97 | +12.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 75 | 25 | 200 | 860 | 180 | 53 | 29 | 33% | 2.7 | 21.0% | 6.1% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.56 | 3.97 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Andriese (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.82 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | — | 5.22 | 14.9% | 6.5% | 44 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Alexi Ogando R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 82 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 74 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 69 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2024 · 5.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.22 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 269 | 67 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.24 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 326 | 66 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 65 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 65 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 65 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 64 |
| Jason Hammel R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.34 | 15.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 645 | 62 |
| Jerome Williams R 2024 · 5.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.94 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 195 | 62 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 62 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 62 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 61 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 61 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 60 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 59 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 59 |
| Albert Suárez R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.97 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 577 | 58 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 48 | 15.5% | 8.0% | 1.28 | 4.93 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |