Matt Andriese — OGILVIE

Matt Andriese P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 36 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%15.3%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†3030

CT+0.9 (27%)

SI (16%)

CU (15%)

CH (1%)

FB-1.6 (57%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	20	131	547	118	27	10	53%	3.4	20.1%	5.0%	15.0%	1.9%	3.24	3.08	+2.9
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	20	131	547	118	27	10	53%	3.4	21.6%	4.9%	16.6%	1.8%	3.24	2.91	+3.2
2016	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	25	162	669	153	31	19	71%	4.6	22.1%	4.7%	17.4%	2.9%	4.17	3.42	+2.9
2016	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	25	162	669	153	31	19	71%	4.6	22.9%	4.6%	18.2%	2.8%	4.17	3.31	+3.2
2017	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	20	93	406	84	28	17	95%	4.4	20.3%	7.2%	13.1%	4.4%	4.44	4.71	+0.2
2017	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	20	93	406	84	28	17	95%	4.4	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	4.2%	4.44	4.57	+0.4
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	6	82	354	83	22	15	14%	2.0	22.9%	5.9%	17.1%	4.7%	5.03	4.47	+0.1
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	6	82	354	83	22	15	14%	2.0	23.4%	6.2%	17.2%	4.2%	5.03	4.25	+0.3
2019	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	57	3	73	326	83	25	10	5%	1.3	25.5%	7.4%	18.1%	2.7%	5.05	3.39	+1.0
2019	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	57	3	73	326	83	25	10	5%	1.3	25.5%	7.7%	17.8%	3.1%	5.05	3.63	+0.8
2020	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	16	1	32	126	33	11	5	6%	2.0	26.2%	8.7%	17.5%	3.9%	4.50	4.13	+0.2
2020	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	16	1	32	126	33	11	5	6%	2.0	26.2%	8.7%	17.5%	4.0%	4.50	4.10	+0.2
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	52	237	54	13	7	0%	1.4	22.5%	5.9%	16.7%	3.2%	4.82	3.71	+0.5
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	52	237	54	13	7	0%	1.4	22.8%	5.5%	17.3%	3.0%	4.82	3.52	+0.6
2023	33	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	21	19	94	419	78	25	21	90%	4.5	15.5%	5.4%	10.1%	5.5%	6.05	5.48	—
2023	33	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	21	19	94	419	78	25	21	90%	4.5	15.5%	5.4%	10.1%	5.5%	6.05	5.48	—
2023	33	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	21	19	94	419	78	25	21	90%	4.5	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	5.0%	6.05	5.15	—
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	48	215	39	15	5	5%	2.2	14.1%	7.1%	6.9%	1.9%	5.06	3.85	+0.4
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	48	215	39	15	5	5%	2.2	14.1%	7.1%	6.9%	1.9%	5.06	3.85	+0.4
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	48	215	39	15	5	5%	2.2	18.1%	7.0%	11.2%	2.3%	5.06	3.77	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			221	50	515	2207	481	135	78	23%	2.3	21.8%	6.1%	15.7%	3.5%	4.65	3.99	+3.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	MIA	12	0	13	55	8	4	2	0%	1.1	15.3%	6.9%	8.3%	3.1%	4.77	4.77	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	MIA	137	0	144	608	86	46	21	0%	1.1	14.2%	7.6%	6.6%	3.5%	5.01	5.17	-1.0
2028	38	MLB MLE	MIA	118	0	124	523	68	43	21	0%	1.0	13.1%	8.3%	4.8%	4.0%	5.37	5.61	-1.4
2027	37	MLB CTX	MIA	137	0	144	608	86	46	21	0%	1.1	14.2%	7.6%	6.6%	3.5%	5.01	5.17	-1.0
2028	38	MLB CTX	MIA	118	0	124	524	68	43	21	0%	1.1	13.1%	8.3%	4.8%	4.0%	5.37	5.61	-1.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		476	50	783	3338	636	224	120	11%	1.6	19.0%	6.7%	12.3%	3.6%	4.83	4.32	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		122	13	200	853	162	57	31	11%	1.6	19.0%	6.7%	12.3%	3.6%	4.83	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		289	95	767	3299	686	196	113	33%	2.7	20.8%	5.9%	14.8%	3.4%	4.56	3.97	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	25	200	860	179	51	29	33%	2.7	20.8%	5.9%	14.8%	3.4%	4.56	3.97	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Andriese (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	15.3%	6.9%	3.1%	—	5.37	13.7%	5.8%	268	+0.60	—	—	—
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	68
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	67
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	63
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	57
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	57
Jake Peavy R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP-	4.35	19.6%	6.7%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	262	56
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	54
Carlos Torres R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	36	SU	4.28	17.8%	9.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	326	54
Tim Dillard R 2019 · 4.10 FIP	36	SP-	4.10	13.6%	5.5%	2.6%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	352	54
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	51
Jerome Williams R 2016 · 5.81 FIP	34	SW	5.81	11.7%	6.1%	5.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	195	51
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	51
Alexi Ogando R 2018 · 4.10 FIP	34	SW	4.10	15.0%	6.4%	2.6%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	132	49
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	49
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	48
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	413	48
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	47
Jeremy Guthrie R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	36	SP-	5.44	12.7%	6.5%	4.7%	.309	4.85	11.6%	3.0%	87	-0.59	4.85	235	46
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	45
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	45

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	144	14.3%	7.5%	1.35	5.02
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20