Matt Wisler — OGILVIE

Matt Wisler P Buffalo Bisons

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA4.19

FIP4.44

K%22.2%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.7

Whiff%

p4724.9%

p3419.9%

xwOBA vs

p770.286

SL+6.0

FB-0.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	31	174	751	121	49	21	97%	5.4	15.3%	6.6%	8.7%	3.0%	4.55	4.30	+1.2
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	31	174	751	121	49	21	97%	5.4	16.1%	6.5%	9.6%	2.8%	4.55	4.12	+1.6
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	183	784	137	51	29	97%	5.9	17.1%	6.5%	10.6%	4.0%	4.81	4.65	+0.5
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	183	784	137	51	29	97%	5.9	17.5%	6.5%	11.0%	3.7%	4.81	4.50	+0.9
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	15	126	548	86	33	12	39%	3.3	14.3%	6.2%	8.1%	2.4%	4.79	3.97	+0.9
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	15	126	548	86	33	12	39%	3.3	15.7%	6.0%	9.7%	2.2%	4.79	3.76	+1.2
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	18	130	543	118	23	14	46%	3.3	19.8%	4.4%	15.4%	2.6%	3.96	3.40	+1.8
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	18	130	543	118	23	14	46%	3.3	21.7%	4.2%	17.5%	2.6%	3.96	3.22	+2.1
2019	26	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	44	8	51	224	63	16	10	18%	1.2	28.1%	7.1%	21.0%	4.6%	5.61	4.14	+0.2
2019	26	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	44	8	51	224	63	16	10	18%	1.2	28.1%	7.1%	21.0%	4.5%	5.61	4.11	+0.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	18	4	25	107	35	14	2	22%	1.4	32.7%	13.1%	19.6%	1.9%	1.07	3.02	+0.5
2020	27	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	18	4	25	107	35	14	2	22%	1.4	32.7%	13.1%	19.6%	1.9%	1.07	3.02	+0.5
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	0	51	202	68	10	6	0%	1.0	31.8%	5.1%	26.7%	3.2%	3.55	2.80	+1.1
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	0	51	202	68	10	6	0%	1.0	33.7%	5.0%	28.7%	3.0%	3.55	2.55	+1.2
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	5	48	193	36	15	7	12%	1.1	19.9%	7.4%	12.5%	3.5%	2.83	4.28	+0.2
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	5	48	193	36	15	7	12%	1.1	18.7%	7.8%	10.9%	3.6%	2.83	4.44	+0.1
2023	30	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	54	2	63	277	73	30	7	4%	1.2	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.60	4.15	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	54	2	63	277	73	30	7	4%	1.2	21.9%	9.7%	12.1%	3.0%	4.60	4.15	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	54	2	63	277	73	30	7	4%	1.2	26.4%	10.8%	15.5%	2.5%	4.60	3.66	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			234	66	507	2170	436	155	79	28%	2.2	20.1%	7.1%	12.9%	3.6%	4.59	4.32	+1.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	TOR	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.3%	12.9%	3.0%	4.19	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	TOR	32	0	33	141	30	14	5	0%	1.0	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.3%	4.52	4.74	-0.1
2027	34	MLB CTX	TOR	31	0	33	139	30	14	5	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.3%	4.52	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		266	66	541	2311	466	169	84	25%	2.0	20.2%	7.3%	12.9%	3.6%	4.59	4.31	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		98	24	200	855	172	63	31	25%	2.0	20.2%	7.3%	12.9%	3.6%	4.59	4.31	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		349	113	851	3629	697	240	115	32%	2.4	19.2%	6.6%	12.6%	3.2%	4.36	4.05	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	27	200	853	164	57	27	32%	2.4	19.2%	6.6%	12.6%	3.2%	4.36	4.05	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Wisler (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	22.2%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.74	21.3%	11.5%	33	+0.30	—	—	—
Joe Blanton R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	4.6%	3.0%	.272	3.70	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.25	3.01	240	65
Sam LeCure R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	32	SW	4.17	16.6%	6.5%	3.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	171	62
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	60
Edwin Jackson R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	33	SP-	5.02	18.7%	9.5%	4.2%	.278	5.25	16.9%	6.9%	252	+0.23	3.77	521	58
Dillon Gee R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	31	SP-	3.85	18.0%	5.9%	2.8%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	380	57
Jesse Chavez R 2017 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	20.3%	7.3%	4.7%	.303	4.02	22.5%	16.9%	190	-0.87	2.03	804	57
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	56
Casey Lawrence R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP-	4.08	20.0%	5.2%	3.7%	.284	5.01	15.6%	10.2%	440	+0.93	3.57	1,365	56
Craig Stammen R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	22.5%	7.6%	3.6%	.257	2.86	23.9%	19.8%	185	-1.26	1.82	407	55
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	53
Garrett Richards R 2021 · 4.47 FIP	33	SP-	4.47	18.6%	9.6%	3.2%	.328	3.17	19.5%	12.5%	43	-1.30	2.31	577	52
Toru Murata R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	31	SW	3.63	12.9%	5.7%	1.6%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	267	52
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	51
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	219	51
Bryan Shaw R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	33	SU	4.39	21.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.274	3.93	19.2%	8.7%	169	-0.46	2.78	596	51
Scott Feldman R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	33	SU	3.92	16.6%	4.7%	3.0%	.301	4.58	19.7%	12.7%	111	+0.66	3.92	297	51
Carlos Torres R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	23.0%	8.0%	2.2%	.252	3.99	18.9%	10.0%	186	+0.59	2.89	326	51
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	51
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	50
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	50

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	35	21.8%	9.5%	1.22	4.35
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64