Matt Wisler
P
Buffalo Bisons
+0.2
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP4.90
SIERA4.52
K%23.4%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.8%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p1089.7
Whiff%
p4724.9%
K%
p3419.9%
xwOBA vs
p770.286
SL+6.0
FB-0.5
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 32 | 31 | 174 | 751 | 121 | 49 | 21 | 15.3% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.28 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 23 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 31 | 30 | 183 | 784 | 137 | 51 | 29 | 17.1% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.81 | 4.68 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 38 | 15 | 126 | 548 | 86 | 33 | 12 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 4.79 | 3.99 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 39 | 18 | 130 | 543 | 118 | 23 | 14 | 19.8% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 3.36 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 44 | 8 | 51 | 224 | 63 | 16 | 10 | 28.1% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 5.61 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 18 | 4 | 25 | 107 | 35 | 14 | 2 | 32.7% | 13.1% | 2.0% | 1.07 | 3.08 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 50 | 0 | 51 | 202 | 68 | 10 | 6 | 31.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.55 | 2.84 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Tampa Bay Rays | 43 | 5 | 48 | 193 | 36 | 15 | 7 | 19.9% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 2.83 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 54 | 2 | 63 | 277 | 73 | 30 | 7 | 23.2% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 52 | — | 52 | 222 | 47 | 21 | 7 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 4.21 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 19.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 349 | 113 | 851 | 3629 | 700 | 245 | 115 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.06 | +12.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 27 | 200 | 853 | 165 | 58 | 27 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 4.36 | 4.06 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Wisler (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.83 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 122 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 86 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 76 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 76 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.16 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .234 | 3.75 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.41 | 2.89 | 453 | 75 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 74 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 73 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 72 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 72 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.38 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.6% | .356 | 4.65 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.27 | 2.80 | 410 | 72 |
| Tim Lincecum R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.86 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 3.5% | .351 | 5.87 | 14.4% | -1.1% | 13 | +1.01 | 4.19 | 166 | 72 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 72 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 72 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 71 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 70 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.81 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 4.1% | .327 | 3.77 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 60 | -1.04 | 2.94 | 533 | 70 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 70 |
| Anthony Swarzak R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 33 | SW | 5.18 | 22.2% | 10.3% | 4.9% | .274 | 6.02 | 16.1% | 14.3% | 12 | +0.84 | 2.35 | 260 | 70 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.40 | 20.4% | 5.1% | 2.5% | .305 | 4.70 | 22.5% | 16.5% | 47 | +1.30 | 2.89 | 227 | 69 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 69 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.