Matt Wisler
P
Buffalo Bisons
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 39 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10899vR 90
ERA4.23
FIP4.47
K%22.4%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%12.8%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 39 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1089.7
Whiff%
p4724.9%
K%
p3419.9%
xwOBA vs
p770.286
SL+6.0
FB-0.5
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 31 | 174 | 751 | 121 | 49 | 21 | 97% | 5.4 | 15.3% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.20 | +2.4 |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 31 | 174 | 751 | 121 | 49 | 21 | 97% | 5.4 | 16.1% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.12 | +2.6 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 183 | 784 | 137 | 51 | 29 | 97% | 5.9 | 17.1% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 4.81 | 4.48 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 183 | 784 | 137 | 51 | 29 | 97% | 5.9 | 17.5% | 6.5% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.81 | 4.50 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 15 | 126 | 548 | 86 | 33 | 12 | 39% | 3.3 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 2.4% | 4.79 | 4.00 | +2.1 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 15 | 126 | 548 | 86 | 33 | 12 | 39% | 3.3 | 15.7% | 6.0% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 4.79 | 3.76 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 18 | 130 | 543 | 118 | 23 | 14 | 46% | 3.3 | 19.8% | 4.4% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.43 | +3.0 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 18 | 130 | 543 | 118 | 23 | 14 | 46% | 3.3 | 21.7% | 4.2% | 17.5% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.22 | +3.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 44 | 8 | 51 | 224 | 63 | 16 | 10 | 18% | 1.2 | 28.1% | 7.1% | 21.0% | 4.7% | 5.61 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 44 | 8 | 51 | 224 | 63 | 16 | 10 | 18% | 1.2 | 28.1% | 7.1% | 21.0% | 4.5% | 5.61 | 4.11 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 18 | 4 | 25 | 107 | 35 | 14 | 2 | 22% | 1.4 | 32.7% | 13.1% | 19.6% | 1.9% | 1.07 | 3.01 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 18 | 4 | 25 | 107 | 35 | 14 | 2 | 22% | 1.4 | 32.7% | 13.1% | 19.6% | 1.9% | 1.07 | 3.02 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 51 | 202 | 68 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.8% | 5.1% | 26.7% | 3.3% | 3.55 | 2.85 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 0 | 51 | 202 | 68 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.7% | 5.0% | 28.7% | 3.0% | 3.55 | 2.55 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 5 | 48 | 193 | 36 | 15 | 7 | 12% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 7.4% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 2.83 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 43 | 5 | 48 | 193 | 36 | 15 | 7 | 12% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 2.83 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 54 | 2 | 63 | 277 | 73 | 30 | 7 | 4% | 1.2 | 23.2% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.41 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 54 | 2 | 63 | 277 | 73 | 30 | 7 | 4% | 1.2 | 26.4% | 10.8% | 15.5% | 2.5% | 4.60 | 3.66 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 35 | 0 | 37 | 155 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 32 | 0 | 33 | 141 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.56 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 266 | 66 | 541 | 2311 | 466 | 169 | 84 | 25% | 2.0 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 4.59 | 4.31 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 24 | 200 | 855 | 172 | 63 | 31 | 25% | 2.0 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 4.59 | 4.31 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 349 | 113 | 851 | 3629 | 700 | 245 | 113 | 32% | 2.4 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.03 | +13.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 27 | 200 | 853 | 165 | 58 | 27 | 32% | 2.4 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Wisler (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.78 | 21.5% | 11.4% | 33 | +0.31 | — | — | — |
| Joe Blanton R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.30 | 22.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.78 | 23.5% | 17.0% | 124 | +0.48 | 3.13 | 240 | 65 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 20.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | .303 | 3.99 | 22.5% | 16.9% | 190 | -1.04 | 2.03 | 804 | 62 |
| Sam LeCure R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 62 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .278 | 5.32 | 16.9% | 6.9% | 252 | +0.29 | 3.69 | 521 | 61 |
| Dillon Gee R 2024 · 3.88 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 380 | 60 |
| Chris Young R 2029 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 60 |
| Tom Koehler R 2024 · 4.71 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.71 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 474 | 59 |
| Casey Lawrence R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | .284 | 5.00 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 440 | +1.02 | 3.50 | 1,320 | 55 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2029 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 55 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.32 | 22.5% | 7.6% | 3.9% | .257 | 2.99 | 23.9% | 19.8% | 185 | -1.33 | 1.87 | 407 | 54 |
| Garrett Richards R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.41 | 18.6% | 9.6% | 3.0% | .328 | 3.22 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 43 | -1.19 | 2.34 | 577 | 54 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 54 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 53 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 52 |
| Scott Feldman R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.92 | 16.6% | 4.7% | 3.0% | .301 | 4.64 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 111 | +0.72 | 3.92 | 297 | 52 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 23.0% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .252 | 4.01 | 18.9% | 10.0% | 186 | +0.49 | 2.78 | 326 | 51 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 51 |
| Toru Murata R 2024 · 3.55 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.55 | 12.9% | 5.7% | 1.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 267 | 51 |
| Yusmeiro Petit R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.87 | 20.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | .238 | 4.17 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 183 | +0.30 | 2.64 | 517 | 51 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.77 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 272 | 51 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 35 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 1.23 | 4.39 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |