Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 16 | 16 | 97 | 406 | 64 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.8% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 1.3% | 3.35 | 3.23 | +2.4 |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 16 | 16 | 97 | 406 | 64 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.8% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 1.2% | 3.35 | 3.19 | +2.4 |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 113 | 504 | 69 | 52 | 12 | 100% | 4.7 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 5.02 | 4.97 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 113 | 504 | 69 | 52 | 12 | 100% | 4.7 | 13.7% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 5.02 | 4.64 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 19 | 100 | 448 | 77 | 42 | 6 | 90% | 4.8 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 1.3% | 4.95 | 3.67 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 19 | 100 | 448 | 77 | 42 | 6 | 90% | 4.8 | 17.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 1.3% | 4.95 | 3.60 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.72 | — |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.77 | — |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 30% | 0.8 | 31.0% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 2.4% | 8.64 | 3.90 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 10 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 30% | 0.8 | 31.0% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 2.4% | 8.64 | 4.06 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 18 | 0 | 17 | 65 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 12.3% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 0.52 | 2.19 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 18 | 0 | 17 | 65 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 12.3% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 0.52 | 2.29 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12% | 0.6 | 17.9% | 17.9% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 10.80 | 7.77 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 12% | 0.6 | 17.9% | 17.9% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 10.80 | 9.30 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 35 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 43 | 2 | 50 | 215 | 54 | 36 | 2 | 5% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 17.6% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 4.29 | 3.90 | — |
| 2024 | 35 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 43 | 2 | 50 | 215 | 54 | 36 | 2 | 5% | 1.2 | 25.1% | 16.7% | 8.4% | 0.9% | 4.29 | 3.62 | — |
| 2025 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 37 | 177 | 37 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 1.5% | 5.79 | 3.51 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 37 | 177 | 37 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 5.79 | 3.80 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 18 | 0 | 22 | 106 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 16.8% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 6.65 | 5.90 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | TOR | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 41 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 12.8% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 4.72 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 37 | MLB | TOR | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 12.8% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 4.72 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 37 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 72 | 317 | 64 | 44 | 9 | — | — | 20.2% | 13.9% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 5.30 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 37 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 5 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 19.4% | 12.8% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 4.72 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 33 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.3% | 13.5% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.3% | 13.5% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.01 | 5.20 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 76 | 38 | 248 | 1082 | 178 | 91 | 22 | 50% | 3.3 | 16.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 4.60 | 3.86 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 31 | 200 | 873 | 144 | 73 | 18 | 50% | 3.3 | 16.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 4.60 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 202 | 68 | 456 | 2013 | 345 | 216 | 38 | 34% | 2.3 | 17.2% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 4.60 | 4.04 | +7.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 30 | 200 | 884 | 152 | 95 | 16 | 34% | 2.3 | 17.2% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 4.60 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesse Hahn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 19.4% | 12.8% | 2.4% | — | 5.20 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 43 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 70 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 66 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 65 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.24 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 326 | 65 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 64 |
| Jason Motte R 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 63 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 37 | SU | 4.04 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .289 | 4.08 | 16.8% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.04 | 3.51 | 219 | 62 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 62 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 60 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.07 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 132 | 59 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 57 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 56 |
| Logan Duran R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.58 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 187 | 56 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.83 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 3.3% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 56 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 56 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.58 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 88 | +0.40 | 3.10 | 174 | 55 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.02 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 394 | 54 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.61 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .241 | 4.59 | 15.4% | 9.2% | 34 | +0.98 | 2.51 | 174 | 54 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 54 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 52 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 46 | 18.9% | 13.1% | 1.00 | 4.85 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |