Jesse Hahn

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 38 RHP 6'5" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	35	AAASEA	43	2	50	4.29	3.62	25.1%	16.7%	—	K 21.6% · BB 15.1% · FIP 3.68
2025	36	MIX2 levels	38	0	37	5.79	3.80	20.9%	9.0%	0.3	K 19.2% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.51
2026	37	AAATOR	18	0	22	6.65	5.73	21.7%	16.0%	—	K 18.7% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.63
2027PROJ	38	MLBTOR	5	0	5	5.01	5.03	18.6%	12.1%	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	39	MLBTOR	—	—	0	5.28	5.46	17.4%	12.8%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff39Control46Command43FB velo49

CompsJonathan Castellanos (age 37) · Zack Segovia (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.01

FIP5.03

K%18.6%

BB%12.1%

K-BB%6.4%

Proj IP49

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	25	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	14	12	73	306	70	31	4	86%	5.2	22.9%	10.1%	12.7%	1.3%	3.07	3.15	+2.0
2014	25	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	14	12	73	306	70	31	4	86%	5.2	22.9%	10.1%	12.7%	1.3%	3.07	3.17	+2.0
2015	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	16	16	97	406	64	24	5	100%	6.0	15.8%	5.9%	9.9%	1.4%	3.35	3.26	+2.6
2015	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	16	16	97	406	64	24	5	100%	6.0	15.8%	5.9%	9.9%	1.2%	3.35	3.19	+2.7
2016	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	113	504	69	52	12	100%	4.7	12.6%	10.7%	1.9%	2.8%	5.02	4.90	+0.6
2016	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	113	504	69	52	12	100%	4.7	13.7%	10.3%	3.4%	2.4%	5.02	4.64	+1.0
2017	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	19	100	448	77	42	6	90%	4.8	16.6%	9.7%	6.8%	1.3%	4.95	3.66	+2.1
2017	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	19	100	448	77	42	6	90%	4.8	17.2%	9.4%	7.8%	1.3%	4.95	3.60	+2.2
2018	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	3	6	22	4	2	0	50%	1.0	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.72	—
2018	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	3	6	22	4	2	0	50%	1.0	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	0.00	2.77	—
2019	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	3	8	42	13	7	1	30%	0.8	31.0%	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	8.64	3.90	+0.1
2019	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	3	8	42	13	7	1	30%	0.8	31.0%	16.7%	14.3%	2.4%	8.64	4.06	+0.0
2020	31	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	18	0	17	65	19	8	0	0%	1.0	29.2%	12.3%	16.9%	0.0%	0.52	2.19	+0.5
2020	31	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	18	0	17	65	19	8	0	0%	1.0	29.2%	12.3%	16.9%	0.0%	0.52	2.29	+0.5
2021	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	5	28	5	5	2	12%	0.6	17.9%	17.9%	0.0%	7.1%	10.80	7.77	-0.2
2021	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	5	28	5	5	2	12%	0.6	17.9%	17.9%	0.0%	7.1%	10.80	9.30	-0.3
2024	35	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	43	2	50	215	54	36	2	5%	1.2	21.6%	15.1%	6.5%	0.9%	4.29	3.68	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	43	2	50	215	54	36	2	5%	1.2	21.6%	15.1%	6.5%	0.9%	4.29	3.68	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	43	2	50	215	54	36	2	5%	1.2	25.1%	16.7%	8.4%	0.9%	4.29	3.62	—
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	37	177	37	16	4	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.3%	10.9%	1.8%	5.79	3.51	+0.5
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	37	177	37	16	4	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.3%	10.9%	1.8%	5.79	3.51	+0.5
2025	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	37	177	37	16	4	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.0%	11.9%	2.3%	5.79	3.80	+0.3
2026	37	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	18	0	22	106	23	17	4	0%	1.2	18.7%	14.4%	4.2%	4.2%	6.65	5.63	—
2026	37	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	18	0	22	106	23	17	4	0%	1.2	18.7%	14.4%	4.2%	4.2%	6.65	5.63	—
2026	37	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	18	0	22	106	23	17	4	0%	1.2	21.7%	16.0%	5.7%	3.8%	6.65	5.73	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	50	316	1367	244	119	25	59%	3.7	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	1.8%	4.24	3.71	+6.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	TOR	5	0	5	21	4	3	1	0%	1.0	18.6%	12.1%	6.4%	2.9%	5.01	5.03	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	TOR	29	0	31	130	23	17	4	0%	1.1	17.4%	12.8%	4.6%	3.3%	5.28	5.46	-0.3
2028	39	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.4%	12.8%	4.6%	3.3%	5.28	5.46	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	50	316	1367	244	119	25	59%	3.7	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	1.8%	4.24	3.70	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		54	32	200	864	154	75	16	59%	3.7	17.8%	8.7%	9.1%	1.8%	4.24	3.70	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		216	80	529	2319	413	237	42	37%	2.4	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	1.8%	4.39	3.88	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	30	200	877	156	89	16	37%	2.4	17.8%	10.2%	7.6%	1.8%	4.39	3.88	+1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 22 IPFIP 5.37 → 5.63 (+0.26)K% 21.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.70%	—	×0.860	18.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.04%	—	×0.900	14.43%
HR / BF /BF	3.77%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.15%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.37 → 5.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 32 IPFIP 3.46 → 3.51 (+0.05)K% 22.4% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.37%	—	×0.860	19.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.21%	—	×0.900	8.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.204	×1.100	1.80%

Result: FIP 3.46 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 50 IPFIP 3.61 → 3.68 (+0.07)K% 25.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.12%	—	×0.860	21.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.74%	—	×0.900	15.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.142	×1.100	0.90%

Result: FIP 3.61 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANashville Sounds · 25 IPFIP 3.82 → 4.19 (+0.37)K% 16.1% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.07%	—	×0.880	14.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.050	13.12%
HR / BF /BF	0.89%	÷0.868	×1.100	1.13%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.82 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Stockton Ports · 5 IPFIP 4.79 → 4.98 (+0.19)K% 20.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.770	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.150	5.75%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.397	×1.250	4.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 179).

Result: FIP 4.79 → 4.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANashville Sounds · 67 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.40 (+0.43)K% 15.3% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.28%	—	×0.880	13.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.30%	—	×1.050	11.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.33%	÷0.856	×1.100	1.71%

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesse Hahn (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	18.6%	12.1%	2.9%	—	5.46	17.4%	4.6%	31	+0.43	—	—	—
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	64
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	63
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	58
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	57
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	51
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	51
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	49
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	47
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	41
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	26
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	25
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	24
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	21
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	18
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	15
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	11
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	10
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	6
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	0

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	66	17.9%	9.9%	0.80	4.42
John Urrea ('77-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.8	91	18.7%*	10.2%*	0.77*	4.32*
Tom Bolton ('87-'94, 3 WAR*)	2.7	77	18.3%*	9.6%*	0.92*	4.57*
Stan Thomas ('74-'77, 1 WAR*)	1.3	88	16.5%*	9.5%*	0.82*	4.23*
Josh Outman ('14)	1.4	46	19.0%	9.7%	0.92	4.43
Bryce Florie ('01)	2.5	82	18.1%	11.1%	0.84	4.47
Clay Hensley ('12)	2.6	74	16.7%	10.7%	0.68	4.00