Kevin Gausman — OGILVIE

Kevin Gausman P Toronto Blue Jays

+2.7 WAR

Age 35 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 2.7 · 2026

ERA3.64

FIP3.72

xFIP2.52

SIERA2.68

K%24.1%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%17.3%

IP164

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.7peak

2026

K†6060

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p8631.0%

p9031.0%

xwOBA vs

p790.284

FB+4.3 (54%)

SL (7%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	31	23	135	559	127	34	22	22.0%	6.5%	3.3%	4.01	3.88	+2.2
2016	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	33	33	191	808	193	51	28	23.0%	6.1%	3.7%	3.59	3.94	+2.9
2017	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	34	34	187	816	179	71	29	21.9%	8.7%	3.3%	4.68	4.15	+2.4
2018	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	31	31	184	776	148	49	26	19.1%	6.3%	3.7%	3.92	4.31	+2.1
2019	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	34	20	120	521	133	31	17	25.3%	6.4%	3.3%	5.24	3.58	+2.3
2020	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	12	10	60	245	79	16	8	32.2%	6.5%	2.9%	3.62	2.78	+1.5
2021	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	33	33	192	775	227	49	20	29.3%	6.3%	2.7%	2.81	2.93	+5.2
2022	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	175	725	205	28	15	28.3%	3.9%	1.9%	3.35	2.24	+6.1
2023	32	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	185	763	237	55	19	31.1%	7.2%	2.6%	3.16	2.84	+5.2
2024	33	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	181	756	162	56	20	21.4%	7.4%	2.5%	3.83	3.63	+3.4
2025	34	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	193	775	189	48	21	24.4%	6.2%	2.4%	3.59	3.15	+4.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	35	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	4	4	22	88	31	5	2	35.2%	5.7%	2.3%	2.42	2.09	+0.7
ROS	35	MLB	SF	24	24	130	550	153	36	14	27.8%	6.6%	2.5%	2.91	2.98	+3.4
2026 Total	35	MLB	SF	—	—	153	638	184	41	16	28.9%	6.5%	2.5%	2.84	2.85	+4.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	36	MLB	SF	24	24	133	560	151	39	15	26.9%	6.9%	2.7%	3.45	3.54	+2.6
2028	37	MLB	SF	21	21	114	483	126	35	13	26.1%	7.2%	2.8%	3.61	3.71	+2.1
2029	38	MLB	SF	18	18	98	414	104	31	12	25.2%	7.5%	2.9%	3.78	3.90	+1.5
2030	39	MLB	SF	15	15	84	354	86	27	11	24.4%	7.8%	3.1%	3.96	4.09	+1.0
2031	40	MLB	SF	13	13	72	303	77	22	10	25.6%	7.3%	3.2%	3.99	4.00	+0.9
2032	41	MLB	SF	11	11	61	259	64	20	9	24.7%	7.6%	3.3%	4.11	4.19	+0.5
2033	42	MLB	SF	52	—	52	221	53	17	8	23.8%	7.9%	3.5%	4.27	4.38	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			337	313	1824	7607	1897	496	223	24.9%	6.5%	2.9%	3.74	3.43	+38.7
/ 200 IP	—			37	34	200	834	208	54	24	24.9%	6.5%	2.9%	3.74	3.43	+4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Gausman (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.71	24.4%	6.9%	2.6%	—	3.70	26.2%	19.0%	345	-0.01	—	—	—
Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 4.89 FIP	35	SP	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	4.5%	.279	5.58	19.0%	14.2%	17	+0.69	4.89	174	36
John Lackey R 2027 · 3.56 FIP	36	SP	3.56	19.5%	5.4%	2.6%	.291	4.31	22.3%	15.4%	359	+0.75	3.56	577	35
Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	35	SP	3.89	17.5%	8.1%	2.3%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	35
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2028 · 3.18 FIP	37	SP	3.18	13.2%	3.6%	1.4%	.345	3.38	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.18	199	34
A.J. Burnett R 2029 · 3.04 FIP	38	SP	3.04	20.5%	6.7%	1.5%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	164	34
Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	35	SP	4.47	15.8%	8.1%	3.1%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	393	34
Yasutomo Kubo R 2029 · 3.94 FIP	38	SP	3.94	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	152	34
Ricky Nolasco R 2025 · 4.67 FIP	34	SP	4.67	18.2%	7.0%	4.0%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	425	34
Aaron Harang R 2028 · 4.43 FIP	37	SP	4.43	14.4%	6.4%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	172	34
Brad Penny R 2028 · 3.75 FIP	37	SP	3.75	12.0%	5.8%	1.7%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	135	34
Ryan Vogelsong R 2029 · 4.44 FIP	38	SP	4.44	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.88	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.44	4.44	217	33
Colby Lewis R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	35	SP	3.91	16.5%	4.6%	2.9%	.283	4.67	15.5%	9.6%	116	+0.76	3.91	321	32
Daniel McCutchen R 2024 · 4.81 FIP	33	SP	4.81	10.8%	5.9%	3.4%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	287	32
Angel Castro R 2025 · 3.50 FIP	34	SP	3.50	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	292	31
Kameron Loe R 2026 · 3.36 FIP	35	SP	3.36	17.1%	8.0%	1.3%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	201	31
Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	35	SP	4.10	16.9%	3.5%	3.6%	.307	5.28	14.8%	8.9%	172	+1.18	3.13	1,196	31
Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 3.84 FIP	35	SP	3.84	18.8%	6.7%	2.7%	.258	5.06	17.2%	7.8%	135	+1.22	3.64	869	30
Chien-Ming Wang R 2026 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP	4.26	7.6%	6.1%	1.9%	.354	4.56	13.0%	5.2%	53	+0.30	4.26	183	29
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2026 · 4.21 FIP	35	SP	4.21	17.6%	5.1%	3.5%	.307	6.12	12.5%	3.1%	31	+1.91	3.86	360	29
Dan Haren R 2025 · 4.29 FIP	34	SP	4.29	17.2%	4.7%	3.7%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	187	28

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 11.878 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+2.7	$22M	-$0.4M
Totals		$22M		$22M	-$0.4M