Kevin Gausman — OGILVIE

Kevin Gausman P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 35 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 3.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION112 act + 73 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10091vR 82

ERA3.50

FIP3.49

K%24.6%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%17.9%

ROS IP73

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 185 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—75

STUF5065

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

FB+4.3 (51%)

SL (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 11.878 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$9M	+1.6	$13M	+$4M
Totals		$9M		$13M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2015	24	MIX	4 levels	31	23	135	559	127	34	22	74%	4.3	22.0%	6.5%	15.4%	3.4%	4.01	3.92	+2.3
2015	24	MIX	4 levels	31	23	135	559	127	34	22	74%	4.3	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	3.9%	4.01	4.10	+2.1
2016	25	MIX	4 levels	33	33	191	808	193	51	28	100%	5.8	23.0%	6.1%	16.9%	3.4%	3.59	3.82	+3.5
2016	25	MIX	4 levels	33	33	191	808	193	51	28	100%	5.8	23.9%	6.3%	17.6%	3.5%	3.59	3.79	+3.6
2017	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	34	34	187	816	179	71	29	100%	5.5	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	3.3%	4.68	4.16	+2.7
2017	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	34	34	187	816	179	71	29	100%	5.5	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	3.6%	4.68	4.34	+2.3
2018	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	31	31	184	776	148	49	26	100%	5.9	19.1%	6.3%	12.8%	3.4%	3.92	4.13	+2.7
2018	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	31	31	184	776	148	49	26	100%	5.9	19.1%	6.3%	12.8%	3.4%	3.92	4.13	+2.7
2019	28	MIX	4 levels	34	20	120	521	133	31	17	59%	3.5	25.3%	6.4%	18.8%	3.2%	5.24	3.51	+2.7
2019	28	MIX	4 levels	34	20	120	521	133	31	17	59%	3.5	25.5%	6.0%	19.6%	3.3%	5.24	3.50	+2.7
2020	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	12	10	60	245	79	16	8	83%	5.0	32.2%	6.5%	25.7%	3.5%	3.62	3.15	+1.0
2020	29	MLB	San Francisco Giants	12	10	60	245	79	16	8	83%	5.0	32.2%	6.5%	25.7%	3.3%	3.62	3.00	+1.1
2021	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	33	33	192	775	227	49	20	100%	5.8	29.3%	6.3%	23.0%	2.8%	2.81	2.97	+5.5
2021	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	33	33	192	775	227	49	20	100%	5.8	29.3%	6.3%	23.0%	2.6%	2.81	2.86	+5.7
2022	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	175	725	205	28	15	100%	5.6	28.3%	3.9%	24.4%	2.1%	3.35	2.34	+6.3
2022	31	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	175	725	205	28	15	100%	5.6	28.3%	3.9%	24.4%	2.1%	3.35	2.35	+6.2
2023	32	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	185	763	237	55	19	100%	6.0	31.1%	7.2%	23.9%	2.5%	3.16	2.76	+5.7
2023	32	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	185	763	237	55	19	100%	6.0	31.1%	7.2%	23.9%	2.5%	3.16	2.76	+5.7
2024	33	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	181	756	162	56	20	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	2.6%	3.83	3.68	+3.6
2024	33	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	181	756	162	56	20	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	2.6%	3.83	3.67	+3.7
2025	34	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	193	775	189	48	21	100%	6.0	24.4%	6.2%	18.2%	2.7%	3.59	3.31	+4.7
2025	34	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	193	775	189	48	21	100%	6.0	24.4%	6.2%	18.2%	2.7%	3.59	3.30	+4.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	35	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	20	20	112	470	116	31	15	100%	5.6	24.7%	6.6%	18.1%	3.2%	4.33	3.60	+2.4
ROS	35	MLB	TOR	12	12	73	307	75	20	9	100%	6.1	24.6%	6.6%	17.9%	3.0%	3.50	3.49	+1.1
ROS	35	MLB	TOR	12	12	73	308	76	20	9	100%	6.1	24.6%	6.6%	17.9%	3.0%	3.50	3.49	+1.1
2026 TOT	35	MLB	TOR	—	—	185	777	191	51	24	—	—	24.6%	6.6%	18.0%	3.1%	4.00	3.56	+4.0
2026 FULL	35	MLB	TOR	—	—	185	782	191	51	24	—	—	24.5%	6.6%	17.9%	3.1%	4.00	3.56	+4.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	36	MLB	TOR	24	24	145	613	144	44	20	100%	6.0	23.5%	7.2%	16.3%	3.3%	4.10	4.24	+2.0
2028	37	MLB	TOR	21	21	127	535	120	42	20	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.9%	14.5%	3.7%	4.43	4.64	+1.1
2029	38	MLB	TOR	18	18	109	460	98	40	19	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	4.2%	4.82	5.08	+0.4
2030	39	MLB	TOR	16	16	94	396	80	37	18	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.3%	10.8%	4.6%	5.23	5.51	-0.3
2027	36	MLB	TOR	24	24	145	612	144	44	20	100%	6.0	23.5%	7.2%	16.3%	3.3%	4.10	4.24	+2.0
2028	37	MLB	TOR	21	21	127	536	120	42	20	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.9%	14.5%	3.7%	4.43	4.64	+1.1
2029	38	MLB	TOR	18	18	109	460	98	40	19	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	4.2%	4.82	5.08	+0.4
2030	39	MLB	TOR	16	16	94	397	80	37	18	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.3%	10.8%	4.6%	5.23	5.51	-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			433	409	2410	10090	2450	689	320	94%	5.6	24.3%	6.8%	17.4%	3.2%	3.95	3.66	+49.1
/ 200 IP	—			36	34	200	837	203	57	27	94%	5.6	24.3%	6.8%	17.4%	3.2%	3.95	3.66	+4.1
Career	—			353	329	1914	7989	1982	522	236	93%	5.4	24.8%	6.5%	18.3%	3.0%	3.79	3.46	+43.5
/ 200 IP	—			37	34	200	835	207	55	25	93%	5.4	24.8%	6.5%	18.3%	3.0%	3.79	3.46	+4.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Gausman (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.78	24.3%	6.7%	2.7%	—	4.61	22.5%	14.7%	381	+0.83	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2029 · 3.67 FIP	38	SP	3.67	20.4%	4.7%	3.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	152	35
John Lackey R 2027 · 3.42 FIP	36	SP	3.42	19.5%	5.4%	2.4%	.291	4.21	22.3%	15.4%	359	+0.79	3.42	577	34
A.J. Burnett R 2029 · 3.10 FIP	38	SP	3.10	20.5%	6.7%	1.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	164	33
Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	15.7%	5.0%	4.5%	.279	5.23	13.4%	7.0%	84	+0.32	4.91	241	32
Miles Mikolas R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	35	SP	4.10	16.9%	3.5%	3.6%	.307	5.11	14.0%	8.7%	251	+1.01	3.06	1,275	30
Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	35	SP	4.31	17.5%	8.1%	3.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	485	30
Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	18.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.258	5.04	17.2%	7.8%	135	+0.98	3.49	869	29
Colby Lewis R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	35	SP	3.91	16.5%	4.6%	2.9%	.283	4.70	15.5%	9.6%	116	+0.79	3.91	321	29
Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	35	SP	4.16	15.8%	8.1%	2.5%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	393	28
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	35	SP	4.20	17.6%	5.1%	3.5%	.307	6.39	12.5%	3.1%	31	+2.19	3.79	360	28
Josh Roenicke R 2025 · 3.49 FIP	34	SP	3.49	18.0%	5.8%	2.1%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.29	283	27
Aaron Harang R 2028 · 4.54 FIP	37	SP	4.54	14.4%	6.4%	3.4%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	172	27
Dan Haren R 2025 · 4.40 FIP	34	SP	4.40	17.2%	4.7%	3.9%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	187	27
Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	16.2%	8.0%	2.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	240	26
Kameron Loe R 2026 · 3.47 FIP	35	SP	3.47	17.1%	8.0%	1.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	201	26
Matt Garza R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	33	SP	4.74	15.7%	8.1%	3.5%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	365	25
Scott Feldman R 2025 · 4.64 FIP	34	SP	4.64	19.7%	7.0%	4.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	297	25
Jorge Martinez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP	34	SP	3.47	16.3%	5.7%	1.8%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	214	25
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2028 · 3.07 FIP	37	SP	3.07	13.2%	3.6%	1.2%	.345	3.27	12.8%	11.7%	45	+0.20	3.07	199	25
Ryan Vogelsong R 2029 · 4.46 FIP	38	SP-	4.46	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.67	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.21	4.46	217	25

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5	128	22.6%	7.8%	1.39	4.37
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	6	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Félix Hernández ('19)	5	134	20.0%	8.1%	1.39	4.48
CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF	5	151	20.2%	7.8%	1.39	4.14
Marco Estrada ('19)	5	142	19.6%	8.3%	1.44	4.33
Jerad Eickhoff ('19)	4	109	21.0%	6.9%	1.43	4.12
J.A. Happ ('21)	7	150	21.6%	7.1%	1.32	4.03