Kevin Gausman — OGILVIE

Kevin Gausman P Chicago Cubs

Age 35 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 11.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 3.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION166 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10193vR 85

ERA3.50

FIP3.49

K%24.2%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%17.7%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 181 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—75

STUF5065

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p6327.4%

p6124.2%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

FB+4.3 (51%)

SL (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 11.878 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$1.0M
Totals		$2M		$0.8M	-$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	23	135	559	127	34	22	74%	4.3	22.0%	6.5%	15.4%	3.3%	4.01	3.89	+1.6
2015	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	31	23	135	559	127	34	22	74%	4.3	22.7%	6.1%	16.6%	3.9%	4.01	4.10	+1.3
2016	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	33	33	191	808	193	51	28	100%	5.8	23.0%	6.1%	16.9%	3.3%	3.59	3.76	+2.6
2016	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	33	33	191	808	193	51	28	100%	5.8	23.9%	6.3%	17.6%	3.5%	3.59	3.79	+2.6
2017	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	34	34	187	816	179	71	29	100%	5.5	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.11	+1.7
2017	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	34	34	187	816	179	71	29	100%	5.5	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	3.6%	4.68	4.34	+1.2
2018	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	31	31	184	776	148	49	26	100%	5.9	19.1%	6.3%	12.8%	3.4%	3.92	4.13	+1.7
2018	27	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	31	31	184	776	148	49	26	100%	5.9	19.1%	6.3%	12.8%	3.4%	3.92	4.13	+1.7
2019	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	34	20	120	521	133	31	17	59%	3.5	25.3%	6.4%	18.8%	3.1%	5.24	3.47	+2.1
2019	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	34	20	120	521	133	31	17	59%	3.5	25.5%	6.0%	19.6%	3.3%	5.24	3.50	+2.0
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	12	10	60	245	79	16	8	83%	5.0	32.2%	6.5%	25.7%	3.5%	3.62	3.14	+1.3
2020	29	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	12	10	60	245	79	16	8	83%	5.0	32.2%	6.5%	25.7%	3.3%	3.62	3.00	+1.4
2021	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	33	33	192	775	227	49	20	100%	5.8	29.3%	6.3%	23.0%	2.8%	2.81	2.96	+4.7
2021	30	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	33	33	192	775	227	49	20	100%	5.8	29.3%	6.3%	23.0%	2.6%	2.81	2.86	+5.0
2022	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	175	725	205	28	15	100%	5.6	28.3%	3.9%	24.4%	2.1%	3.35	2.34	+5.8
2022	31	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	175	725	205	28	15	100%	5.6	28.3%	3.9%	24.4%	2.1%	3.35	2.35	+5.8
2023	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	185	763	237	55	19	100%	6.0	31.1%	7.2%	23.9%	2.5%	3.16	2.76	+5.1
2023	32	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	185	763	237	55	19	100%	6.0	31.1%	7.2%	23.9%	2.5%	3.16	2.76	+5.1
2023	32	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	185	763	237	55	19	100%	6.0	31.1%	7.2%	23.9%	2.5%	3.16	2.76	+5.0
2024	33	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	181	756	162	56	20	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	2.6%	3.83	3.68	+2.7
2024	33	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	181	756	162	56	20	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	2.6%	3.83	3.68	+2.7
2024	33	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	31	31	181	756	162	56	20	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	2.6%	3.83	3.67	+2.7
2025	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	193	775	189	48	21	100%	6.0	24.4%	6.2%	18.2%	2.7%	3.59	3.31	+3.8
2025	34	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	193	775	189	48	21	100%	6.0	24.4%	6.2%	18.2%	2.7%	3.59	3.31	+3.8
2025	34	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	32	32	193	775	189	48	21	100%	6.0	24.4%	6.2%	18.2%	2.7%	3.59	3.30	+3.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			351	327	1916	8015	1988	520	242	93%	5.5	24.8%	6.5%	18.3%	3.0%	3.85	3.48	+33.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	30	30	166	706	171	45	24	100%	5.5	24.2%	6.4%	17.8%	3.5%	4.60	3.80	+2.2
YTD	35	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	30	30	166	706	171	45	24	100%	5.5	24.2%	6.4%	17.8%	3.5%	4.60	3.80	+2.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	MLB RAW	CHC	30	30	166	706	171	45	24	100%	5.5	24.2%	6.4%	17.8%	3.4%	4.60	3.73	+2.4
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	CHC	30	30	166	706	171	45	24	100%	5.5	24.2%	6.4%	17.8%	3.4%	4.60	3.73	+2.4
ROS	35	MLB MLE	CHC	2	2	15	61	15	4	2	100%	7.3	24.2%	6.5%	17.7%	2.9%	3.50	3.49	+0.3
ROS	35	MLB CTX	CHC	2	2	15	63	15	4	2	100%	7.5	24.2%	6.5%	17.7%	2.8%	3.44	3.43	+0.3
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	181	767	186	49	26	—	—	24.2%	6.4%	17.8%	3.4%	4.51	3.78	+2.5
FULL	35	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	181	764	186	49	26	—	—	24.3%	6.4%	17.9%	3.4%	4.51	3.71	+2.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	CHC	24	24	145	613	142	43	21	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.1%	16.1%	3.5%	4.20	4.34	+1.0
2028	37	MLB MLE	CHC	21	21	127	535	118	41	21	100%	6.0	22.1%	7.7%	14.4%	3.9%	4.52	4.74	+0.2
2027	36	MLB CTX	CHC	24	24	145	612	142	43	21	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.1%	16.1%	3.4%	4.13	4.27	+1.0
2028	37	MLB CTX	CHC	21	21	127	536	119	41	20	100%	6.0	22.1%	7.7%	14.4%	3.8%	4.44	4.66	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		399	375	2203	9224	2264	609	285	94%	5.5	24.5%	6.6%	17.9%	3.1%	3.90	3.56	+36.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	34	200	838	206	55	26	94%	5.5	24.5%	6.6%	17.9%	3.1%	3.90	3.56	+3.3
Career	—	MLE		363	339	1968	8225	2037	536	244	93%	5.4	24.8%	6.5%	18.3%	3.0%	3.82	3.46	+34.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	34	200	836	207	54	25	93%	5.4	24.8%	6.5%	18.3%	3.0%	3.82	3.46	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kevin Gausman (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.78	24.3%	6.7%	2.7%	—	4.53	22.7%	15.3%	272	+0.75	—	—	—
Aníbal Sánchez R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	18.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.258	5.04	17.2%	7.8%	135	+0.98	3.49	869	58
Justin Verlander R 2018 · 2.62 FIP	35	SP	2.62	34.8%	4.4%	3.5%	.268	3.14	35.4%	30.4%	223	+0.52	2.32	1,584	57
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	56
Ricky Nolasco R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	34	SP	4.84	18.2%	7.0%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	425	52
Zack Greinke R 2019 · 3.05 FIP	35	SP	3.05	23.1%	3.5%	2.7%	.268	4.12	16.8%	12.1%	375	+1.07	2.56	1,517	52
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	44
Adam Wainwright R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	35	SP	4.08	17.6%	7.5%	2.8%	.319	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	278	+0.00	2.03	1,127	41
Scott Feldman R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	34	SP	4.58	19.7%	7.0%	4.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	297	39
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2016 · 4.15 FIP	35	SP	4.15	17.6%	5.1%	3.4%	.307	6.31	12.5%	3.1%	31	+2.16	3.74	360	39
J.A. Happ L 2018 · 3.65 FIP	35	SP	3.65	26.3%	7.0%	3.5%	.266	4.88	19.7%	12.5%	363	+1.23	3.37	1,053	37
Jon Lester L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	35	SP	4.08	21.6%	6.8%	3.5%	.344	5.15	14.9%	7.4%	202	+1.07	2.81	1,144	36
Corey Kluber R 2021 · 3.50 FIP	35	SP	3.50	24.0%	9.7%	2.2%	.303	4.19	19.2%	14.9%	219	+0.69	2.26	1,190	36
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	35
Brandon McCarthy R 2018 · 4.69 FIP	35	SP	4.69	19.2%	6.2%	4.4%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	248	35
John Lackey R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	36	SP	3.51	19.5%	5.4%	2.5%	.291	4.34	22.3%	15.4%	359	+0.83	3.51	577	34
Jason Hammel R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	35	SW	4.36	15.8%	6.0%	3.3%	.342	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	645	34
A.J. Burnett R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	38	SP	3.16	20.5%	6.7%	1.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	164	33
Mike Fiers R 2020 · 4.79 FIP	35	SP	4.79	14.4%	6.2%	3.9%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	918	33
Cole Hamels L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	35	SP	3.84	23.2%	8.9%	2.9%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	893	32
Edinson Volquez R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	34	SP	4.14	20.4%	12.6%	2.1%	.271	6.11	13.3%	-2.7%	16	+1.97	3.74	498	31

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	145	23.3%	7.1%	1.29	4.14
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Luis Garcia ('23)	1.7	113	25.5%	7.7%	1.19	3.63
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54