Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 21 | 131 | 556 | 71 | 42 | 9 | 66% | 4.1 | 11.7% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 3.84 | 4.10 | +2.0 |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 21 | 131 | 556 | 71 | 42 | 9 | 66% | 4.1 | 12.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 3.84 | 3.87 | +2.4 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 24 | 132 | 577 | 99 | 44 | 15 | 60% | 3.3 | 16.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 5.05 | 4.32 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 24 | 132 | 577 | 99 | 44 | 15 | 60% | 3.3 | 17.2% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 5.05 | 4.08 | +2.0 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 34 | 28 | 170 | 724 | 113 | 60 | 26 | 82% | 5.0 | 15.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 3.82 | 4.92 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 34 | 28 | 170 | 724 | 113 | 60 | 26 | 82% | 5.0 | 15.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 3.82 | 4.82 | +1.1 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 31 | 31 | 174 | 712 | 130 | 43 | 19 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.3% | 6.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.87 | +3.1 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 31 | 31 | 174 | 712 | 130 | 43 | 19 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.3% | 6.0% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.77 | +3.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 29 | 15 | 90 | 392 | 65 | 24 | 14 | 52% | 3.1 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 4.52 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 29 | 15 | 90 | 392 | 65 | 24 | 14 | 52% | 3.1 | 16.6% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 5.00 | 4.48 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 5 | 5 | 23 | 104 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.4% | 12.5% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 5.40 | 5.70 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 5 | 5 | 23 | 104 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.4% | 12.5% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 5.40 | 5.71 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 20 | 104 | 466 | 69 | 43 | 14 | 71% | 3.7 | 14.7% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 5.64 | 4.87 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 20 | 104 | 466 | 69 | 43 | 14 | 71% | 3.7 | 14.8% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 5.64 | 4.77 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 118 | 533 | 77 | 55 | 12 | 85% | 4.5 | 14.1% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 5.42 | 4.20 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 118 | 533 | 77 | 55 | 12 | 85% | 4.5 | 14.4% | 10.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 5.42 | 4.52 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 133 | 605 | 105 | 55 | 30 | 100% | 4.6 | 15.8% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.89 | 5.39 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 133 | 605 | 105 | 55 | 30 | 100% | 4.6 | 17.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 5.89 | 5.69 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 33 | 9 | 109 | 463 | 70 | 37 | 13 | 27% | 3.3 | 15.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 4.34 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 32 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 33 | 9 | 109 | 463 | 70 | 37 | 13 | 27% | 3.3 | 15.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 3.80 | 4.38 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 13 | 78 | 346 | 55 | 36 | 9 | 46% | 2.8 | 15.2% | 10.6% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 13 | 78 | 346 | 55 | 36 | 9 | 46% | 2.8 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 4.29 | 4.58 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 42 | 24 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.2% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.96 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 9 | 9 | 56 | 235 | 36 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.2% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 5.14 | 5.30 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 49 | 208 | 30 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.2% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.45 | 5.66 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | LAA | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 24 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 13.1% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 5.82 | 6.06 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 36 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.2% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 5.11 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 29 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 14.2% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.41 | 5.62 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | LAA | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 24 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 13.1% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 5.78 | 6.02 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 276 | 183 | 1151 | 4980 | 758 | 416 | 160 | 66% | 4.2 | 15.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.64 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 48 | 32 | 200 | 865 | 132 | 72 | 28 | 66% | 4.2 | 15.2% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 4.84 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 315 | 217 | 1262 | 5478 | 845 | 458 | 167 | 69% | 4.0 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.53 | +12.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 34 | 200 | 868 | 134 | 73 | 26 | 69% | 4.0 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 4.63 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Ureña (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 16.2% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 5.64 | 14.3% | 3.8% | 148 | +0.68 | — | — | — |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.19 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.84 | 3.79 | 264 | 68 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 64 |
| Jason Berken R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 63 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.95 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 104 | 63 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.97 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.71 | 160 | 62 |
| Sergio Valenzuela R 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.47 | 10.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 244 | 62 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.37 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 275 | 62 |
| Rolando Valdez R 2025 · 5.15 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.15 | 11.7% | 7.6% | 3.8% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 258 | 61 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 61 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.56 | 10.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 143 | 60 |
| Matt Garza R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 59 |
| Kameron Loe R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.90 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.47 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 133 | -0.43 | 3.47 | 201 | 59 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.05 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.16 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 134 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 393 | 59 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 59 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.80 | 12.1% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 284 | 58 |
| Thad Weber R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.86 | 13.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | .398 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 363 | 57 |
| Leo Medrano R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 222 | 56 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.60 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 5.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 605 | 55 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2028 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 54 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.51 | 11.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .305 | 5.11 | 10.7% | 1.4% | 83 | +0.60 | 3.26 | 273 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 14.8% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 5.28 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |