Alex Pham

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 27 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AABowie Baysox	27	27	119	4.24	3.57	27.9%	10.1%	—	K 22.6% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.09
2025	25	MIX4 levels	18	6	49	4.04	3.02	29.3%	8.3%	—	K 23.7% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.73
2026	26	MIX2 levels	47	0	59	4.40	3.37	27.7%	13.8%	—	K 22.8% · BB 13.9% · FIP 3.93
2027PROJ	27	MLBBAL	3	0	3	4.41	4.41	23.0%	11.2%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBBAL	39	0	41	4.44	4.48	22.8%	11.0%	0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBBAL	50	0	53	4.52	4.59	22.5%	11.0%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control50Command60

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsRoberto Gómez (age 27) · Emmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Jose Pina (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%23.0%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP139

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 139 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	12	52	12	3	0	0%	1.5	23.1%	5.8%	17.3%	0.0%	4.63	1.88	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	12	52	12	3	0	0%	1.5	23.1%	5.8%	17.3%	0.0%	4.63	1.81	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	33	139	46	18	2	0%	1.8	26.6%	14.5%	12.0%	2.8%	4.09	4.23	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	33	139	46	18	2	0%	1.8	33.1%	12.9%	20.1%	1.4%	4.09	2.74	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	112	442	130	42	10	73%	4.3	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.7%	2.57	3.97	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	112	442	130	42	10	73%	4.3	29.4%	9.5%	19.9%	2.3%	2.57	3.06	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	27	119	494	138	50	14	100%	4.4	22.6%	11.1%	11.5%	2.7%	4.24	4.09	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	27	119	494	138	50	14	100%	4.4	22.6%	11.1%	11.5%	2.7%	4.24	4.09	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	27	27	119	494	138	50	14	100%	4.4	27.9%	10.1%	17.8%	2.8%	4.24	3.57	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	6	49	205	60	17	5	33%	2.7	23.7%	8.9%	14.9%	2.8%	4.04	3.73	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	6	49	205	60	17	5	33%	2.7	23.7%	8.9%	14.9%	2.8%	4.04	3.73	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	6	49	205	60	17	5	33%	2.7	29.3%	8.3%	21.0%	2.4%	4.04	3.02	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	59	260	72	36	4	0%	1.3	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	1.8%	4.40	3.93	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	59	260	72	36	4	0%	1.3	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	1.8%	4.40	3.93	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	59	260	72	36	4	0%	1.3	27.7%	13.8%	13.8%	1.5%	4.40	3.37	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	BAL	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.2%	11.8%	2.6%	4.41	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	105	0	110	464	105	51	13	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.0%	11.7%	2.8%	4.44	4.48	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	BAL	90	0	94	399	90	44	12	0%	1.0	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.52	4.59	-0.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	BAL	79	0	83	352	78	39	11	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	3.1%	4.65	4.75	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	39	0	41	173	39	19	5	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.0%	11.7%	2.8%	4.44	4.48	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	BAL	50	0	53	224	50	25	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	11.0%	11.5%	2.9%	4.52	4.59	-0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	BAL	54	0	57	241	53	27	8	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.1%	11.0%	3.1%	4.65	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	0	151	636	142	70	19	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.1%	11.3%	3.0%	4.55	4.24	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	93	25	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.1%	11.3%	3.0%	4.55	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		144	52	384	1592	371	180	40	36%	2.7	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	2.5%	3.75	3.93	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	27	200	829	193	94	21	36%	2.7	23.3%	11.3%	12.0%	2.5%	3.75	3.93	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChesapeake Baysox · 38 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.77 (+0.88)K% 32.7% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.70%	—	×0.810	26.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.95%	—	×1.100	13.14%
HR / BF /BF	1.89%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAANorfolk Tides · 21 IPFIP 4.10 → 4.18 (+0.08)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.80%	—	×0.860	17.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.83%	—	×0.900	15.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.09%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.10 → 4.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAChesapeake Baysox · 41 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.73 (+0.51)K% 29.3% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.31%	—	×0.810	23.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.05%	—	×1.100	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	2.87%	÷1.248	×1.200	2.76%

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 119 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.09 (+0.52)K% 27.9% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.94%	—	×0.810	22.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.12%	—	×1.100	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.83%	÷1.249	×1.200	2.72%

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 61 IPFIP 3.24 → 3.70 (+0.45)K% 23.0% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.98%	—	×0.810	18.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.23%	—	×1.100	7.96%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.208	×1.200	2.11%

Result: FIP 3.24 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 51 IPFIP 2.86 → 4.29 (+1.43)K% 36.7% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.71%	—	×0.770	28.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.08%	—	×1.150	13.89%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷0.912	×1.250	3.31%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.86 → 4.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 21 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.23 (+1.18)K% 34.5% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.48%	—	×0.770	26.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.64%	—	×1.150	14.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷1.029	×1.250	2.79%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 11 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.32 (+1.00)K% 30.6% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.61%	—	×0.740	22.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.180	16.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.128	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 126).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Pham (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	23.0%	11.2%	2.6%	—	4.59	22.5%	11.4%	288	+0.18	—	—	—
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	80
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	76
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	75
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.47	18.6%	9.0%	205	+0.03	4.04	577	74
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	72
Wil Jensen R 2024 · 3.48 FIP	26	SW	3.48	22.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	368	72
Paxton Schultz R 2024 · 3.83 FIP	26	SW	3.83	24.4%	9.8%	2.8%	.306	4.15	22.5%	15.1%	135	+0.32	3.83	543	72
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	71
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	71
Britt Reames R 2001 · 4.77 FIP	27	SW	4.77	19.9%	10.4%	3.7%	.298	3.76	24.7%	14.3%	68	-1.01	3.76	204	71
Trent Sellers R 2024 · 3.41 FIP	24	SW	3.41	23.4%	13.2%	1.1%	.211	4.63	22.6%	8.7%	175	+1.22	3.41	257	71
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	71
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	71
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	70
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	70
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	70
Sam Benschoter R 2024 · 3.61 FIP	26	SW	3.61	18.2%	10.0%	1.4%	.317	4.46	16.9%	10.2%	145	+0.85	3.61	441	70
Tristan Beck R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	27	SW	4.70	19.3%	6.8%	4.3%	.271	3.74	19.9%	12.2%	176	-0.96	3.48	501	70
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	69
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	107	22.6%	11.1%	1.10	4.49
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Floyd Youmans ('85-'89, 6 WAR*)	2.7	108	23.5%*	11.9%*	1.06*	4.23*
Ian Anderson ('25)	1.4	94	22.2%	10.5%	0.99	4.22