Alex Pham
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
5'11" / 165 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%13.3%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 8 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 12 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.63 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Aberdeen IronBirds | 18 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 46 | 18 | 2 | 26.6% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 26 | 19 | 112 | 442 | 130 | 42 | 10 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 2.57 | 3.97 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 27 | 27 | 119 | 494 | 138 | 50 | 14 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.07 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 18 | 6 | 49 | 205 | 60 | 17 | 5 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 3.78 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 5 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 11.81 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 59 | 25 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 66 | 283 | 63 | 28 | 8 | 22.4% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.96 | 4.01 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 59 | 25 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 59 | — | 59 | 251 | 58 | 25 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 57 | 24 | 7 | 23.1% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 22.9% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 52 | 23 | 7 | 22.6% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 46 | 22 | 7 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 37 | 19 | 6 | 20.9% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 5.03 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 52 | 330 | 1358 | 316 | 147 | 36 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.95 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 32 | 200 | 823 | 192 | 89 | 22 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.95 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Pham (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.2% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.39 | 23.1% | 13.4% | 178 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 90 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 89 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 89 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 88 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 88 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 88 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.73 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.09 | 2.62 | 304 | 88 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 87 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 87 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 87 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 2.93 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 188 | -0.31 | 2.59 | 302 | 87 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 87 |
| Seth Simmons R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 87 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2028 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 86 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 5.86 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 49 | +2.00 | 3.86 | 157 | 86 |
| Steve Geltz R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 86 |
| Blake Smith R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 85 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 85 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.18 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .284 | 3.71 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 55 | +0.53 | 2.49 | 160 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-1 | $0.6M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.3M |
| 2032 | Arb-2 | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2033 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $7M | +$2M | ||