Alex Pham — OGILVIE

Alex Pham P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 26 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%23.6%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	0	12	52	12	3	0	0%	1.5	23.1%	5.8%	17.3%	0.0%	4.63	1.88	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	0	12	52	12	3	0	0%	1.5	23.1%	5.8%	17.3%	0.0%	4.63	1.81	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	33	139	46	18	2	0%	1.8	26.6%	14.5%	12.0%	2.8%	4.09	4.23	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	33	139	46	18	2	0%	1.8	33.1%	12.9%	20.1%	1.4%	4.09	2.74	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	112	442	130	42	10	73%	4.3	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.7%	2.57	3.97	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	19	112	442	130	42	10	73%	4.3	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.7%	2.57	3.97	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	19	112	442	130	42	10	73%	4.3	29.4%	9.5%	19.9%	2.3%	2.57	3.06	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	27	119	494	138	50	14	100%	4.4	22.6%	11.1%	11.5%	2.7%	4.24	4.09	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	27	27	119	494	138	50	14	100%	4.4	22.6%	11.1%	11.5%	2.7%	4.24	4.09	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	27	27	119	494	138	50	14	100%	4.4	27.9%	10.1%	17.8%	2.8%	4.24	3.57	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	6	49	205	60	17	5	33%	2.7	23.7%	8.9%	14.9%	2.8%	4.04	3.73	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	6	49	205	60	17	5	33%	2.7	23.7%	8.9%	14.9%	2.8%	4.04	3.73	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	6	49	205	60	17	5	33%	2.7	29.3%	8.3%	21.0%	2.4%	4.04	3.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	44	0	56	245	70	34	4	0%	1.3	23.3%	14.0%	9.3%	1.9%	3.99	3.96	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	44	0	56	245	70	34	4	0%	1.3	23.3%	14.0%	9.3%	1.9%	3.99	3.96	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	BAL	29	0	37	156	51	19	3	0%	1.3	32.7%	12.2%	20.5%	1.9%	2.68	2.94	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	BAL	15	0	19	89	19	15	1	0%	1.3	21.3%	16.9%	4.5%	1.1%	6.52	4.05	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	BAL	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	9.3%	14.3%	2.9%	4.25	4.25	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	BAL	—	—	62	270	76	36	5	—	—	28.1%	13.5%	14.7%	1.7%	4.02	3.99	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BAL	130	0	137	578	136	53	17	0%	1.1	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.0%	4.28	4.29	+0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	126	0	133	561	130	52	17	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	3.1%	4.33	4.37	+0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	BAL	121	0	127	535	123	50	17	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.2%	4.43	4.50	+0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	BAL	114	0	119	503	113	49	17	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	BAL	49	0	51	215	50	20	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.0%	4.28	4.29	+0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	75	0	79	334	77	31	10	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.3%	13.9%	3.1%	4.33	4.37	+0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	BAL	86	0	90	380	87	36	12	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.4%	13.5%	3.2%	4.43	4.50	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	BAL	89	0	93	393	89	38	13	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.4%	4.57	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		299	0	314	1324	304	125	42	0%	1.0	23.0%	9.4%	13.5%	3.2%	4.42	4.10	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	80	27	0%	1.1	23.0%	9.4%	13.5%	3.2%	4.42	4.10	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		141	52	381	1577	369	178	40	37%	2.7	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	2.5%	3.69	3.93	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	27	200	828	194	94	21	37%	2.7	23.4%	11.3%	12.1%	2.5%	3.69	3.93	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Pham (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	23.6%	9.3%	2.9%	—	4.38	23.2%	13.9%	396	+0.13	—	—	—
Ariel Peña R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.92	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.74	223	85
Alex Colomé R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	26	SW	3.33	19.3%	5.9%	2.0%	.309	2.95	25.5%	19.3%	191	-0.38	2.72	530	80
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	78
Adam Warren R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	27	SW	3.32	19.5%	7.1%	1.8%	.272	3.72	21.9%	14.4%	174	+0.40	2.72	392	77
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	74
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	73
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	73
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	73
Stephen Perakslis R 2017 · 3.07 FIP	26	SW	3.07	21.3%	8.2%	1.3%	.313	5.15	11.8%	5.9%	42	+2.08	3.07	211	73
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	72
Matt Wotherspoon R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	22.2%	8.8%	3.6%	.311	4.93	21.5%	11.9%	71	+0.63	2.96	419	72
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	72
Carlos Navas R 2019 · 4.06 FIP	26	SW	4.06	20.7%	7.0%	3.3%	.271	6.98	19.3%	10.0%	44	+2.92	2.98	385	72
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	71
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	71
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	71
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	26	SW	3.22	21.3%	8.8%	1.5%	.330	4.62	18.0%	7.3%	110	+1.40	3.22	221	71
Nick Merkel R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	22.8%	7.1%	3.5%	.284	3.44	20.7%	10.3%	129	-0.55	3.15	205	71
Ryan Eades R 2018 · 3.19 FIP	26	SW	3.19	22.4%	7.4%	1.9%	.352	4.24	23.9%	15.3%	64	+1.05	3.19	451	71
Kevin Herget R 2017 · 3.68 FIP	26	SW	3.68	20.3%	7.0%	2.5%	.332	4.67	18.1%	12.4%	139	+0.99	2.19	722	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	131	23.2%	9.4%	1.20	4.37
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45