Alex Pham
P
Norfolk Tides
Age 26
RHP
5'11" / 165 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 139 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114104vR 95
ERA4.15
FIP4.15
K%23.6%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.4%
ROS IP139
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 177 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.1% | 5.8% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 4.63 | 1.88 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 23.1% | 5.8% | 17.3% | 0.0% | 4.63 | 1.81 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 46 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 26.6% | 14.5% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.19 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 46 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 33.1% | 12.9% | 20.1% | 1.4% | 4.09 | 2.74 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 112 | 442 | 130 | 42 | 10 | 73% | 4.3 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 2.7% | 2.57 | 3.98 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 112 | 442 | 130 | 42 | 10 | 73% | 4.3 | 29.4% | 9.5% | 19.9% | 2.3% | 2.57 | 3.06 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 27 | 27 | 119 | 494 | 138 | 50 | 14 | 100% | 4.4 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 2.3% | 4.24 | 3.85 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 27 | 27 | 119 | 494 | 138 | 50 | 14 | 100% | 4.4 | 27.9% | 10.1% | 17.8% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 3.57 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 6 | 49 | 205 | 60 | 17 | 5 | 33% | 2.7 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 2.3% | 4.04 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 6 | 49 | 205 | 60 | 17 | 5 | 33% | 2.7 | 29.3% | 8.3% | 21.0% | 2.4% | 4.04 | 3.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 28 | 0 | 38 | 159 | 44 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 23.3% | 14.7% | 8.5% | 1.4% | 4.03 | 3.80 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BAL | 132 | 0 | 139 | 587 | 139 | 54 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +2.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 177 | 746 | 183 | 76 | 18 | — | — | 24.5% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 2.4% | 4.12 | 4.07 | +2.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 14 | 59 | 14 | 5 | 2 | — | — | 23.6% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 3.77 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 130 | 0 | 137 | 578 | 136 | 53 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.20 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 126 | 0 | 133 | 561 | 130 | 51 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.29 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 121 | 0 | 127 | 535 | 123 | 50 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.41 | +1.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 57 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.20 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 79 | 0 | 83 | 350 | 81 | 32 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 89 | 36 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.41 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 236 | 0 | 248 | 1045 | 242 | 96 | 31 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 3.92 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 78 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 125 | 52 | 363 | 1491 | 349 | 167 | 34 | 42% | 2.9 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 3.67 | 3.79 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 29 | 200 | 822 | 192 | 92 | 19 | 42% | 2.9 | 23.4% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 2.3% | 3.67 | 3.79 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Pham (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.15 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | — | 4.30 | 23.2% | 14.0% | 396 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.91 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .300 | 4.91 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.00 | 3.91 | 223 | 85 |
| Alex Colomé R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.37 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 2.1% | .309 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 19.3% | 191 | -0.39 | 2.72 | 530 | 81 |
| Adam Warren R 2027 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 1.7% | .272 | 3.73 | 21.9% | 14.4% | 174 | +0.42 | 2.71 | 392 | 80 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 79 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 76 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.25 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .330 | 4.63 | 18.0% | 7.3% | 110 | +1.38 | 3.25 | 221 | 76 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.89 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .331 | 5.46 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.57 | 3.89 | 141 | 76 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.12 | 21.9% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .263 | 5.32 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 85 | +2.20 | 2.74 | 367 | 75 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.64 | 16.6% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.90 | 3.74 | 459 | 75 |
| Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .306 | 4.32 | 22.3% | 14.2% | 104 | +0.32 | 4.00 | 512 | 73 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.63 | 23.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | .317 | 3.95 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 87 | -0.68 | 3.36 | 432 | 73 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.71 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.44 | 3.27 | 339 | 73 |
| Stephen Perakslis R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.17 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 1.5% | .313 | 5.36 | 11.8% | 5.9% | 42 | +2.19 | 3.17 | 211 | 72 |
| Matt Wotherspoon R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.37 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 3.7% | .311 | 5.28 | 21.5% | 11.9% | 71 | +0.91 | 3.00 | 419 | 72 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 72 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 72 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 72 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 3.4% | .271 | 6.98 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 44 | +2.90 | 2.94 | 385 | 71 |
| Jose Pina R 2029 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 71 |
| Kevin Herget R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.68 | 20.3% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .332 | 4.93 | 18.1% | 12.4% | 139 | +1.25 | 2.17 | 705 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 134 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 1.12 | 4.22 |
| Jimmy Nelson ('21) | 5 | 117 | 22.2% | 9.1% | 0.97 | 4.08 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Jaime García ('18) | 4 | 135 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 1.05 | 4.23 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |
| Gio Gonzalez ('20) | 6 | 141 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 0.85 | 3.85 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |