Paxton Schultz
P
Washington Nationals
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
MLB
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 97
ERA3.92
FIP4.22
K%22.5%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p1019.0%
K%
p4721.7%
xwOBA vs
p300.335
FB+2.5 (35%)
SL (7%)
CT-1.0 (43%)
CH-2.8 (15%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 22 | 21 | 102 | 445 | 114 | 45 | 11 | 95% | 4.7 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 5.28 | 4.98 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 22 | 21 | 102 | 445 | 114 | 45 | 11 | 95% | 4.7 | 25.6% | 10.1% | 15.5% | 2.5% | 5.28 | 3.59 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 25 | 20 | 105 | 459 | 99 | 51 | 15 | 80% | 4.2 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.04 | 5.22 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 25 | 20 | 105 | 459 | 99 | 51 | 15 | 80% | 4.2 | 21.6% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.04 | 4.53 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 21 | 109 | 485 | 113 | 60 | 14 | 70% | 3.6 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 4.80 | 5.16 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 21 | 109 | 485 | 113 | 60 | 14 | 70% | 3.6 | 23.3% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.35 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 40 | 7 | 92 | 394 | 112 | 43 | 10 | 18% | 2.3 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 4.00 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 40 | 7 | 92 | 394 | 112 | 43 | 10 | 18% | 2.3 | 28.4% | 10.9% | 17.5% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 3.48 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 4 | 76 | 311 | 79 | 25 | 9 | 10% | 1.9 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 14.0% | 3.9% | 3.57 | 4.43 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 4 | 76 | 311 | 79 | 25 | 9 | 10% | 1.9 | 25.4% | 8.0% | 17.4% | 2.9% | 3.57 | 3.55 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 36 | 1 | 42 | 188 | 42 | 14 | 6 | 3% | 1.2 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 14.7% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | WSH | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 53 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 3.4% | 3.92 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | WSH | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 53 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 3.4% | 3.92 | 4.22 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 98 | 424 | 95 | 35 | 14 | — | — | 22.5% | 8.3% | 14.2% | 3.3% | 4.34 | 4.16 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 86 | 365 | 95 | 35 | 14 | — | — | 26.1% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 3.9% | 4.92 | 4.24 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 117 | 0 | 123 | 519 | 114 | 47 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.71 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 110 | 0 | 116 | 488 | 104 | 45 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 4.73 | 4.88 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 111 | 0 | 117 | 494 | 109 | 44 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.53 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 105 | 0 | 110 | 464 | 99 | 43 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 3.7% | 4.73 | 4.88 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 307 | 3 | 338 | 1445 | 319 | 126 | 52 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.31 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 2 | 200 | 856 | 189 | 75 | 31 | 1% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 4.60 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 192 | 74 | 526 | 2282 | 473 | 256 | 82 | 39% | 2.7 | 20.7% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.45 | 4.75 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 28 | 200 | 868 | 180 | 98 | 31 | 39% | 2.7 | 20.7% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.45 | 4.75 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Paxton Schultz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.64 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 3.4% | — | 4.79 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 238 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 79 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 79 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 76 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 75 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 74 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.12 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 472 | 74 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 73 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 72 |
| Mayckol Guaipe R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.74 | 26.0% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .432 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.88 | 136 | 72 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 72 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.70 | 20.1% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 523 | 71 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 71 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.09 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | .329 | 3.99 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 157 | -1.10 | 3.39 | 382 | 71 |
| Vinny Nittoli R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.36 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .302 | 3.71 | 26.9% | 20.4% | 93 | -0.65 | 3.59 | 331 | 70 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.33 | 16.9% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .371 | 4.86 | 17.5% | 5.7% | 37 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 133 | 70 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 150 | 70 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2029 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 70 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 70 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | .244 | 5.53 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.04 | 4.54 | 224 | 70 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 108 | 22.0% | 9.2% | 1.38 | 4.55 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |