Paxton Schultz — OGILVIE

Paxton Schultz P Washington Nationals

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs MLB ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA3.84

FIP4.07

K%22.4%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p1018.7%

p4120.9%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

FB+2.5 (34%)

SL (7%)

CT-1.0 (45%)

CH-2.8 (14%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	22	21	102	445	114	45	11	95%	4.7	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	3.4%	5.28	4.77	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	22	21	102	445	114	45	11	95%	4.7	25.6%	10.1%	15.5%	2.5%	5.28	3.59	—
2022	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	20	105	459	99	51	15	80%	4.2	17.5%	12.2%	5.2%	3.8%	4.04	5.27	—
2022	24	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	20	105	459	99	51	15	80%	4.2	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.3%	4.04	4.53	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	21	109	485	113	60	14	70%	3.6	19.1%	11.9%	7.2%	3.5%	4.80	4.90	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	21	109	485	113	60	14	70%	3.6	19.1%	11.9%	7.2%	3.5%	4.80	4.90	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	21	109	485	113	60	14	70%	3.6	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	2.9%	4.80	4.35	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	40	7	92	394	112	43	10	18%	2.3	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	2.8%	4.11	3.90	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	40	7	92	394	112	43	10	18%	2.3	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	2.8%	4.11	3.90	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	40	7	92	394	112	43	10	18%	2.3	28.4%	10.9%	17.5%	2.5%	4.11	3.48	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	4	76	311	79	25	9	10%	1.9	21.7%	7.6%	14.1%	3.4%	3.57	4.12	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	4	76	311	79	25	9	10%	1.9	21.7%	7.6%	14.1%	3.4%	3.57	4.12	+0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	4	76	311	79	25	9	10%	1.9	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	2.9%	3.57	3.55	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	3	57	263	60	19	9	8%	1.4	22.8%	7.2%	15.6%	3.4%	5.53	4.05	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	49	1	57	246	60	18	9	2%	1.2	22.5%	7.0%	15.4%	3.8%	4.61	4.19	+0.2
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	49	1	57	246	60	18	9	2%	1.2	22.5%	7.0%	15.4%	3.8%	4.61	4.19	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	WSH	22	0	24	93	28	7	4	0%	1.1	30.1%	7.5%	22.6%	4.3%	2.22	3.87	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	WSH	27	1	32	153	32	11	5	4%	1.2	20.9%	7.2%	13.7%	3.3%	6.40	4.04	+0.2
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	WSH	27	1	32	153	32	11	5	4%	1.2	20.9%	7.2%	13.7%	3.3%	6.40	4.04	+0.2
ROS	28	MLB MLE	WSH	5	0	5	23	5	2	1	0%	1.1	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	3.3%	3.84	4.07	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	WSH	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	3.3%	3.84	4.07	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	62	269	65	20	10	—	—	24.2%	7.4%	16.8%	3.6%	4.54	4.18	+0.3
FULL	28	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	38	159	65	20	10	—	—	40.9%	12.5%	28.4%	6.1%	7.47	4.59	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	WSH	117	0	123	519	110	43	18	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	3.4%	4.46	4.61	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	WSH	110	0	116	488	101	42	17	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	3.6%	4.65	4.79	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	WSH	111	0	117	494	105	41	17	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	3.4%	4.46	4.61	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	WSH	105	0	110	464	96	40	17	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.6%	12.0%	3.6%	4.65	4.79	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		261	3	289	1242	266	102	43	1%	1.1	21.4%	8.2%	13.2%	3.5%	4.73	4.24	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	2	200	860	184	71	30	1%	1.1	21.4%	8.2%	13.2%	3.5%	4.73	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		205	74	540	2340	476	245	81	36%	2.6	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	3.4%	4.43	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	27	200	867	176	91	30	36%	2.6	20.4%	10.5%	9.9%	3.4%	4.43	4.60	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paxton Schultz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	22.3%	8.6%	3.3%	—	4.70	21.0%	12.5%	238	+0.21	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	80
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	78
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	77
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	76
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	75
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	75
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	75
Josh Lindblom R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	30	SW	3.91	18.7%	5.5%	3.1%	.333	3.50	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.41	3.50	348	74
Cory Gearrin R 2015 · 3.52 FIP	29	SU	3.52	22.1%	7.5%	2.5%	.283	3.54	22.2%	13.6%	174	+0.02	3.15	272	73
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	73
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	73
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	72
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	72
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	72
Reinier Roibal R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	27	SW	4.37	16.9%	7.1%	3.3%	.371	4.91	17.5%	5.7%	37	+0.54	3.11	133	72
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	72
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	72
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	71
Nolan Clenney R 2023 · 4.79 FIP	27	SU	4.79	22.6%	10.1%	4.2%	.341	4.58	17.2%	7.5%	71	-0.21	3.73	223	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	119	21.4%	8.5%	1.32	4.46
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.2	83	22.4%	8.9%	1.12	3.97