Paxton Schultz
P
Washington Nationals
+0.5
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.8 · 2028
ERA4.43
FIP4.46
xFIP4.90
SIERA4.05
K%23.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.5%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2028
K†5560
FB Velo
p4093.8
Whiff%
p6327.4%
K%
p6825.5%
xwOBA vs
p600.302
FB+2.5 (31%)
SL (4%)
CT-1.0 (44%)
CH-2.8 (21%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 22 | 21 | 102 | 445 | 114 | 45 | 11 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 5.28 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 25 | 20 | 105 | 459 | 99 | 51 | 15 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 4.04 | 5.28 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 30 | 21 | 109 | 485 | 113 | 60 | 14 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 5.02 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 40 | 7 | 92 | 394 | 112 | 43 | 10 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.11 | 3.98 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 39 | 4 | 76 | 311 | 79 | 25 | 9 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 3.57 | 4.10 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 7 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.15 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 77 | 324 | 75 | 32 | 11 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.60 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 85 | 363 | 84 | 34 | 12 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.13 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 83 | 29 | 11 | 24.7% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.32 | 4.33 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 85 | 25 | 11 | 26.0% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 4.21 | 4.15 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 75 | 316 | 80 | 25 | 11 | 25.2% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 4.24 | 4.26 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 75 | 25 | 11 | 24.6% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.32 | 4.38 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 69 | 24 | 11 | 23.9% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 65 | 276 | 64 | 23 | 10 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.56 | 4.64 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 58 | 23 | 10 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 4.70 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 53 | 22 | 10 | 21.7% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 4.85 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 163 | 73 | 492 | 2133 | 441 | 245 | 72 | 20.7% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.41 | 4.68 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 30 | 200 | 867 | 179 | 100 | 29 | 20.7% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 4.41 | 4.68 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Paxton Schultz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 3.4% | — | 4.25 | 25.3% | 17.2% | 232 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 77 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 75 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 75 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.0% | .274 | 4.61 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.33 | 3.40 | 556 | 75 |
| Taylor Cole R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.71 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.49 | 22.0% | 13.9% | 72 | -0.22 | 3.49 | 433 | 71 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 71 |
| Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.77 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .336 | 2.72 | 28.9% | 24.6% | 159 | -1.05 | 2.48 | 642 | 71 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 70 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.48 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | .333 | 4.46 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | -0.02 | 3.70 | 381 | 70 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.26 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .333 | 3.86 | 19.4% | 11.3% | 201 | -0.40 | 3.77 | 725 | 68 |
| Jesse Scholtens R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.26 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 3.6% | .303 | 4.39 | 19.1% | 11.6% | 193 | +0.13 | 3.40 | 788 | 68 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 68 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 23.4% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .299 | 5.18 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 323 | +1.20 | 3.15 | 678 | 67 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.45 | 24.0% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .321 | 5.19 | 19.4% | 11.6% | 146 | +1.74 | 3.03 | 406 | 67 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 67 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.32 | 27.1% | 20.7% | 45 | +0.40 | 3.91 | 287 | 66 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 448 | 66 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 66 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.71 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .292 | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 118 | +0.10 | 3.16 | 254 | 66 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 65 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.453 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1.0M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $9M | $16M | +$7M | ||