Paxton Schultz

P Washington Nationals

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AAATOR	40	7	92	4.11	3.48	28.4%	10.9%	—	K 24.4% · BB 9.8% · FIP 3.83
2025	27	MIX3 levels	39	4	76	3.57	3.55	25.4%	8.0%	0.9	K 22.2% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.09
2026	28	MIX2 levels	53	1	61	4.55	4.05	24.7%	7.5%	0.4	K 22.9% · BB 7.2% · FIP 4.23
2027PROJ	29	MLBWSH	30	0	32	4.42	4.47	22.0%	7.5%	0.0
2028PROJ84% MLB	30	MLBWSH	30	0	32	4.56	4.66	21.4%	8.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ87% MLB	31	MLBWSH	26	0	27	4.73	4.86	20.8%	8.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%41

FB Velo37

xwOBA vs24

CompsDiego Moreno (age 29) · Ramon Delgado (age 29) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.42

FIP4.47

K%22.0%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p1018.7%

p4120.9%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	22	21	102	445	114	45	11	95%	4.7	19.7%	11.6%	8.1%	3.4%	5.28	4.77	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Vancouver Canadians	22	21	102	445	114	45	11	95%	4.7	25.6%	10.1%	15.5%	2.5%	5.28	3.59	—
2022	24	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	20	105	459	99	51	15	80%	4.2	17.5%	12.2%	5.2%	3.8%	4.04	5.27	—
2022	24	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	20	105	459	99	51	15	80%	4.2	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	3.3%	4.04	4.53	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	21	109	485	113	60	14	70%	3.6	19.5%	11.9%	7.6%	3.5%	4.80	4.87	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	21	109	485	113	60	14	70%	3.6	23.3%	12.4%	10.9%	2.9%	4.80	4.35	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	40	7	92	394	112	43	10	18%	2.3	24.4%	9.8%	14.6%	2.8%	4.11	3.83	—
2024	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	40	7	92	394	112	43	10	18%	2.3	24.4%	9.8%	14.6%	2.8%	4.11	3.83	—
2024	26	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	40	7	92	394	112	43	10	18%	2.3	28.4%	10.9%	17.5%	2.5%	4.11	3.48	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	4	76	311	79	25	9	10%	1.9	22.2%	7.6%	14.5%	3.4%	3.57	4.09	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	4	76	311	79	25	9	10%	1.9	22.2%	7.6%	14.5%	3.4%	3.57	4.09	+0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	4	76	311	79	25	9	10%	1.9	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	2.9%	3.57	3.55	+0.9
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	61	267	66	20	10	2%	1.2	22.9%	7.2%	15.8%	3.9%	4.55	4.23	+0.2
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	61	267	66	20	10	2%	1.2	22.9%	7.2%	15.8%	3.9%	4.55	4.23	+0.2
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	61	267	66	20	10	2%	1.2	24.7%	7.5%	17.2%	3.7%	4.55	4.05	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			40	3	57	263	60	19	9	8%	1.4	22.8%	7.2%	15.6%	3.4%	5.53	4.05	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	WSH	30	0	32	135	30	10	5	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.5%	14.5%	3.4%	4.42	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	WSH	36	0	38	161	35	13	6	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.0%	13.4%	3.6%	4.56	4.66	-0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	WSH	29	0	31	129	27	11	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	3.8%	4.73	4.86	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	WSH	30	0	32	135	29	11	5	0%	1.1	21.4%	8.0%	13.4%	3.6%	4.56	4.66	-0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	WSH	26	0	27	114	24	10	4	0%	1.0	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	3.8%	4.73	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		96	3	116	511	112	39	18	3%	1.2	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	3.5%	5.07	4.16	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		166	5	200	883	193	67	31	3%	1.2	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	3.5%	5.07	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		209	74	545	2361	489	247	82	35%	2.6	20.7%	10.5%	10.2%	3.5%	4.43	4.58	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	27	200	867	180	91	30	35%	2.6	20.7%	10.5%	10.2%	3.5%	4.43	4.58	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 29 IPFIP 3.99 → 4.48 (+0.49)K% 29.8% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.82%	—	×0.860	25.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×0.900	7.11%
HR / BF /BF	4.39%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.82%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.99 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 49 IPFIP 3.62 → 4.21 (+0.59)K% 23.6% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.59%	—	×0.860	20.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.72%	—	×0.900	7.85%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.847	×1.100	3.33%

Result: FIP 3.62 → 4.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 92 IPFIP 3.48 → 3.83 (+0.35)K% 28.4% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.43%	—	×0.860	24.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×0.900	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷0.990	×1.100	2.82%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 62 IPFIP 5.28 → 5.76 (+0.48)K% 20.6% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.56%	—	×0.860	17.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.83%	÷0.916	×1.100	4.60%

Result: FIP 5.28 → 5.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 46 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.57 (+0.73)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.60%	—	×1.100	10.56%
HR / BF /BF	1.52%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.82%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 105 IPFIP 4.48 → 5.27 (+0.79)K% 21.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.57%	—	×0.810	17.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.100	12.22%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷1.027	×1.200	3.82%

Result: FIP 4.48 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Vancouver Canadians · 102 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.77 (+1.20)K% 25.6% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.62%	—	×0.770	19.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.11%	—	×1.150	11.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.47%	÷0.909	×1.250	3.40%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Paxton Schultz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	22.0%	7.5%	3.4%	—	4.75	21.1%	13.0%	69	+0.28	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	75
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	72
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	71
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	70
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	69
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	69
Ryan Jensen R 2005 · 4.35 FIP	29	SW	4.35	15.7%	5.2%	3.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	253	69
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	69
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	69
Michael Mariot R 2018 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	21.8%	7.5%	4.4%	.328	4.65	17.7%	9.5%	136	+0.03	2.40	701	69
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	69
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	69
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	69
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	68
Deolis Guerra R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	29	SU	3.59	26.4%	7.1%	3.3%	.280	3.20	26.6%	19.8%	132	-0.39	2.53	364	68
Felipe Arredondo R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	29	SW	3.92	17.2%	6.6%	2.6%	.281	4.71	15.4%	8.2%	139	+0.79	3.92	337	68
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	67
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	67
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	67
Alex Powers R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	29	SU	4.24	25.0%	10.3%	3.5%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	264	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	33	21.9%	7.8%	1.37	4.89
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*