Vinny Nittoli
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.1
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'0" / 204 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP4.60
SIERA4.25
K%23.9%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%14.6%
IP27
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
CT+2.9 (58%)
SL (30%)
FB (1%)
SI (2%)
CU (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 7 | 0 | 10 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.60 | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | 40 | 0 | 65 | 273 | 74 | 23 | 8 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 3.88 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | 34 | 4 | 61 | 263 | 60 | 17 | 7 | 19.0% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 5.49 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 31 | 6 | 42 | 175 | 52 | 11 | 9 | 26.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.36 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 39 | 4 | 54 | 216 | 65 | 15 | 7 | 27.1% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 3.67 | 3.68 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 38 | 2 | 46 | 202 | 50 | 19 | 11 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 4.47 | 6.12 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 35 | 0 | 42 | 173 | 51 | 14 | 6 | 29.8% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 3.00 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 34 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 37 | 1 | 39 | 178 | 46 | 15 | 6 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 3.9% | 4.58 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 27 | — | 27 | 115 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 26 | — | 26 | 108 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 261 | 17 | 359 | 1518 | 355 | 126 | 63 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 4.33 | 4.45 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 9 | 200 | 845 | 198 | 70 | 35 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 4.33 | 4.45 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Vinny Nittoli (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 3.4% | — | 4.63 | 23.4% | 13.9% | 26 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Will Harris R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.44 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.15 | 315 | 74 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.04 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.25 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.79 | 2.03 | 804 | 73 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 73 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 72 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 72 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.70 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 227 | 71 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 70 |
| Luke Gregerson R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.71 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 192 | 69 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 69 |
| Yusmeiro Petit R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.14 | 19.3% | 5.7% | 3.5% | .254 | 4.88 | 12.7% | 8.7% | 90 | +0.74 | 2.46 | 517 | 69 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 69 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 68 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 67 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 67 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.14 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 3.7% | .271 | 3.76 | 22.3% | 15.9% | 184 | -0.38 | 3.61 | 1,008 | 67 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.14 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 212 | 67 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .246 | 3.43 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | -0.03 | 2.00 | 380 | 67 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 66 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 66 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.