Wil Jensen
P
Knoxville Smokies
+0.8
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
AA
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.6%
IP84
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 23 | 19 | 103 | 426 | 109 | 25 | 12 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 3.59 | 4.38 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 23 | 17 | 93 | 382 | 99 | 29 | 13 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 3.50 | 4.66 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 34 | 4 | 89 | 373 | 93 | 41 | 10 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 2.53 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 35 | 6 | 89 | 381 | 106 | 33 | 7 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | 3.74 | 3.50 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 8 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 14 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.74 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 81 | 33 | 10 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 82 | 348 | 79 | 32 | 10 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 80 | 338 | 76 | 31 | 10 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 79 | 27 | 10 | 24.1% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.28 | 4.21 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 75 | 27 | 10 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 4.30 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 71 | 299 | 70 | 26 | 10 | 23.5% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 66 | 25 | 10 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 63 | 268 | 61 | 25 | 9 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.63 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 56 | 24 | 9 | 22.4% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 123 | 46 | 384 | 1606 | 334 | 143 | 53 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 3.31 | 4.28 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 24 | 200 | 837 | 174 | 75 | 28 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 3.31 | 4.28 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wil Jensen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 22.8% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.33 | 23.0% | 14.1% | 240 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 89 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 88 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 83 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 83 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 82 |
| Taylor Cole R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.71 | 25.4% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.49 | 22.0% | 13.9% | 72 | -0.22 | 3.49 | 433 | 82 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.0% | .274 | 4.61 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.33 | 3.40 | 556 | 81 |
| Brett Sears R 2023 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 80 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.48 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | .333 | 4.46 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | -0.02 | 3.70 | 381 | 80 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 78 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 78 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 77 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 77 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.71 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .292 | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 118 | +0.10 | 3.16 | 254 | 77 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 23.4% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .299 | 5.18 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 323 | +1.20 | 3.15 | 678 | 77 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 302 | 76 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.32 | 27.1% | 20.7% | 45 | +0.40 | 3.91 | 287 | 76 |
| Michael Bowden R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.20 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 141 | 76 |
| Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.77 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .336 | 2.72 | 28.9% | 24.6% | 159 | -1.05 | 2.48 | 642 | 76 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 448 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.