Wil Jensen — OGILVIE

Wil Jensen P Knoxville Smokies

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%22.3%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	23	19	103	426	109	25	12	83%	4.5	18.9%	6.9%	12.0%	3.6%	3.59	4.37	—
2021	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	23	19	103	426	109	25	12	83%	4.5	25.6%	5.9%	19.7%	2.8%	3.59	3.23	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	17	93	382	99	29	13	74%	4.0	20.2%	8.6%	11.6%	4.0%	3.50	4.69	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	17	93	382	99	29	13	74%	4.0	25.9%	7.6%	18.3%	3.4%	3.50	3.73	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	34	4	89	373	93	41	10	12%	2.6	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	3.6%	2.53	4.88	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	34	4	89	373	93	41	10	12%	2.6	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	3.6%	2.53	4.88	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	34	4	89	373	93	41	10	12%	2.6	24.9%	11.0%	13.9%	2.7%	2.53	3.85	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	6	89	381	106	33	7	17%	2.5	22.7%	8.4%	14.3%	2.2%	3.74	3.48	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	6	89	381	106	33	7	17%	2.5	22.7%	8.4%	14.3%	2.2%	3.74	3.48	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	6	89	381	106	33	7	17%	2.5	27.8%	8.7%	19.2%	1.8%	3.74	2.85	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	8	0	10	44	14	4	0	0%	1.3	31.8%	9.1%	22.7%	0.0%	1.74	1.56	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	8	0	10	44	14	4	0	0%	1.3	31.8%	9.1%	22.7%	0.0%	1.74	1.56	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	8	0	10	44	14	4	0	0%	1.3	31.8%	9.1%	22.7%	0.0%	1.74	1.55	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	CHC	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CHC	54	0	56	238	53	23	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.1%	4.44	4.50	+0.0
2028	30	MLB MLE	CHC	50	0	53	224	49	22	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	9.8%	12.1%	3.3%	4.57	4.66	-0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	CHC	17	0	18	76	17	7	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.6%	12.6%	3.1%	4.44	4.50	+0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	CHC	26	0	27	114	25	11	4	0%	1.0	21.9%	9.8%	12.1%	3.3%	4.57	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	189	42	18	6	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.2%	4.52	4.22	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	80	27	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.7%	12.3%	3.2%	4.52	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		123	46	384	1606	334	143	53	37%	3.1	20.8%	8.9%	11.8%	3.3%	3.31	4.28	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	24	200	837	174	75	27	37%	3.1	20.8%	8.9%	11.8%	3.3%	3.31	4.28	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wil Jensen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	22.3%	9.3%	2.9%	—	4.58	22.1%	12.4%	109	+0.21	—	—	—
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	81
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	79
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	78
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	76
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	75
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	75
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	74
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	74
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	74
Asher Wojciechowski R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SW	3.99	23.4%	6.5%	3.7%	.299	5.06	21.5%	13.1%	323	+1.07	3.15	678	74
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	73
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	73
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	73
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	72
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	72
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.67	18.2%	7.1%	248	-0.15	4.29	360	72
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	72
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	71
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	22.1%	9.6%	1.19	4.46
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47