Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 26 | 26 | 160 | 658 | 122 | 38 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 0.6% | 3.09 | 2.95 | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 26 | 26 | 160 | 658 | 122 | 38 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.5% | 5.8% | 12.8% | 0.5% | 3.09 | 2.53 | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 28 | 28 | 163 | 657 | 149 | 27 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.0% | 4.3% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.41 | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 28 | 28 | 163 | 657 | 149 | 27 | 21 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.7% | 4.1% | 18.6% | 3.2% | 3.76 | 3.44 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 12 | 108 | 464 | 99 | 22 | 13 | 31% | 2.8 | 20.5% | 4.8% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 3.59 | +2.3 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 12 | 108 | 464 | 99 | 22 | 13 | 31% | 2.8 | 21.3% | 4.7% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 4.68 | 3.44 | +2.5 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 4 | 109 | 441 | 91 | 22 | 9 | 11% | 3.0 | 19.3% | 5.1% | 14.2% | 2.2% | 4.03 | 3.32 | +2.7 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 4 | 109 | 441 | 91 | 22 | 9 | 11% | 3.0 | 20.6% | 5.0% | 15.6% | 2.0% | 4.03 | 3.11 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 8 | 95 | 409 | 90 | 22 | 16 | 25% | 3.0 | 20.5% | 5.5% | 15.0% | 3.7% | 4.91 | 4.12 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 8 | 95 | 409 | 90 | 22 | 16 | 25% | 3.0 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 16.6% | 3.9% | 4.91 | 4.09 | +1.4 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 19% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 5.9% | 15.2% | 4.0% | 4.67 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 4 | 27 | 114 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 19% | 1.3 | 20.2% | 4.4% | 15.8% | 3.5% | 4.67 | 3.88 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 77 | 315 | 58 | 11 | 11 | 2% | 1.5 | 17.7% | 3.5% | 14.1% | 3.7% | 3.96 | 4.06 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 51 | 1 | 77 | 315 | 58 | 11 | 11 | 2% | 1.5 | 18.4% | 3.5% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 3.96 | 3.88 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 6 | 65 | 262 | 48 | 16 | 7 | 12% | 1.3 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 2.92 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 6 | 65 | 262 | 48 | 16 | 7 | 12% | 1.3 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 2.92 | 3.76 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 4 | 33 | 161 | 24 | 11 | 8 | 16% | 1.3 | 13.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 8.10 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 34 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 4 | 33 | 161 | 24 | 11 | 8 | 16% | 1.3 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 8.10 | 5.77 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 167 | 0 | 175 | 739 | 121 | 55 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.78 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 145 | 0 | 153 | 645 | 99 | 52 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 5.18 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | TEX | 125 | 0 | 131 | 554 | 78 | 49 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.1% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.32 | 5.61 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | TEX | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 5.18 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.1% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.32 | 5.61 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 155 | 17 | 317 | 1334 | 222 | 69 | 46 | 11% | 2.0 | 16.6% | 5.1% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 4.25 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 11 | 200 | 843 | 140 | 44 | 29 | 11% | 2.0 | 16.6% | 5.1% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 308 | 93 | 837 | 3481 | 642 | 184 | 91 | 30% | 2.7 | 18.4% | 5.3% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 4.07 | 3.64 | +17.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 22 | 200 | 831 | 153 | 44 | 22 | 30% | 2.7 | 18.4% | 5.3% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 4.07 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Austin Pruitt (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.78 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | — | 5.38 | 14.8% | 6.4% | 284 | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| Jason Hammel R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.34 | 15.8% | 6.0% | 3.3% | .342 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 645 | 67 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 65 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 65 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 61 |
| Jake Peavy R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 55 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 54 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 54 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 52 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.11 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 2.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 352 | 51 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 51 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 50 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 567 | 49 |
| Jerome Williams R 2024 · 5.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.94 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 195 | 48 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 48 |
| Chris Smith R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.11 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 413 | 46 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2024 · 5.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.22 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 269 | 46 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 45 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 44 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 43 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 43 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 153 | 15.4% | 8.0% | 1.38 | 4.84 |
| Miguel González ('17) | 3 | 145 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 4.44 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Ricky Nolasco ('17) | 3 | 139 | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.38 | 4.85 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Doug Fister ('18) | 4 | 110 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 1.19 | 4.56 |
| R.A. Dickey ('17) | 3 | 191 | 16.0% | 7.9% | 1.24 | 4.19 |