Luis Cessa
P
Indianapolis Indians
+0.1
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'0" / 222 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2027
ERA6.60
FIP5.00
xFIP5.63
SIERA6.14
K%18.4%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%8.7%
IP83
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2027
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†4545
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p1014.6%
K%
p108.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.433
CH-1.6
SL-4.1
FB-7.0
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 25 | 25 | 139 | 607 | 119 | 35 | 7 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 1.4% | 4.52 | 3.24 | +3.3 |
| 2016 | 24 | MLB | New York Yankees | 32 | 23 | 148 | 594 | 115 | 37 | 24 | 18.0% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 3.66 | 4.33 | +1.6 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | New York Yankees | 24 | 18 | 114 | 486 | 97 | 43 | 14 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 4.18 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 25 | 13 | 83 | 346 | 77 | 22 | 6 | 20.5% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 4.25 | 3.15 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 43 | 0 | 81 | 343 | 75 | 30 | 14 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 4.11 | 4.54 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 16 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 1.6% | 3.32 | 3.39 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 53 | 0 | 65 | 261 | 54 | 18 | 5 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 1.8% | 2.51 | 3.20 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 46 | 10 | 81 | 336 | 59 | 28 | 14 | 17.6% | 8.3% | 4.1% | 4.57 | 4.91 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 29 | 13 | 68 | 332 | 53 | 31 | 12 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 8.74 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 26 | 23 | 103 | 446 | 77 | 43 | 15 | 15.2% | 10.1% | 4.1% | 4.73 | 5.37 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 63 | 34 | 12 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 6.65 | 5.03 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 64 | 30 | 11 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 5.61 | 4.91 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 57 | 29 | 11 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 5.29 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 319 | 125 | 903 | 3844 | 688 | 300 | 113 | 17.9% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.19 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 28 | 200 | 852 | 152 | 66 | 25 | 17.9% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Cessa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.03 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 3.4% | — | 4.99 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 152 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Matt Garza R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.57 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.03 | 365 | 84 |
| Manuel Flores R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.1% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 515 | 82 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2025 · 5.70 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.70 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 81 |
| Jason Berken R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.51 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 219 | 77 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 4.3% | .280 | 4.47 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 134 | -0.29 | 3.71 | 393 | 77 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.35 | 11.7% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 275 | 76 |
| Leo Medrano R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.34 | 11.0% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 222 | 75 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.25 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | +0.10 | 4.25 | 171 | 73 |
| Michael Nix R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.52 | 11.9% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 234 | 72 |
| Sam LeCure R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.16 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 171 | 72 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.90 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 2.1% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.16 | 287 | 71 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 5.66 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.66 | 12.5% | 8.7% | 4.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 199 | 70 |
| Chris Young R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .209 | 6.35 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.73 | 4.62 | 242 | 69 |
| Scott Feldman R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.56 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 4.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 297 | 69 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.42 | 11.4% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.18 | 10.7% | 1.4% | 83 | +0.76 | 3.17 | 273 | 69 |
| Matt Cain R 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.07 | 13.2% | 7.6% | 3.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.87 | 294 | 68 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.51 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 3.66 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -0.85 | 2.89 | 326 | 67 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 66 |
| Edinson Volquez R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.4% | 12.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 6.15 | 13.3% | -2.7% | 16 | +2.08 | 3.69 | 498 | 65 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.