Luis Cessa
P
Indianapolis Indians
Age 34
RHP
6'0" / 222 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.16
FIP5.33
K%15.4%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%5.6%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p1014.6%
K%
p108.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.433
CH-1.6
SL-4.1
FB-7.0
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 139 | 607 | 119 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 1.4% | 4.52 | 3.28 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 139 | 607 | 119 | 35 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.6% | 5.8% | 13.8% | 1.2% | 4.52 | 2.80 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 23 | 148 | 594 | 115 | 37 | 24 | 72% | 4.6 | 18.0% | 6.4% | 11.5% | 4.0% | 3.66 | 4.59 | +1.4 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 23 | 148 | 594 | 115 | 37 | 24 | 72% | 4.6 | 19.4% | 6.2% | 13.1% | 4.0% | 3.66 | 4.41 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 114 | 486 | 97 | 43 | 14 | 75% | 4.8 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 3.86 | 4.03 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 18 | 114 | 486 | 97 | 43 | 14 | 75% | 4.8 | 20.0% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 4.12 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 13 | 83 | 346 | 77 | 22 | 6 | 52% | 3.3 | 20.5% | 5.8% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 4.25 | 3.15 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 13 | 83 | 346 | 77 | 22 | 6 | 52% | 3.3 | 22.3% | 6.4% | 15.9% | 1.7% | 4.25 | 2.98 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 43 | 0 | 81 | 343 | 75 | 30 | 14 | 0% | 1.9 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 4.11 | 4.45 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 43 | 0 | 81 | 343 | 75 | 30 | 14 | 0% | 1.9 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 4.1% | 4.11 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 16 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | 3.32 | 3.61 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | New York Yankees | 16 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 2.2% | 3.32 | 3.70 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 53 | 0 | 65 | 261 | 54 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 13.8% | 1.8% | 2.51 | 3.22 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 29 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 53 | 0 | 65 | 261 | 54 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 13.8% | 1.9% | 2.51 | 3.27 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 46 | 10 | 81 | 336 | 59 | 28 | 14 | 22% | 1.8 | 17.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 4.57 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 46 | 10 | 81 | 336 | 59 | 28 | 14 | 22% | 1.8 | 17.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 4.57 | 4.93 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 13 | 68 | 332 | 53 | 31 | 12 | 45% | 2.3 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 8.74 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 13 | 68 | 332 | 53 | 31 | 12 | 45% | 2.3 | 16.0% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 8.74 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 26 | 23 | 103 | 446 | 77 | 43 | 15 | 88% | 3.9 | 15.2% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.73 | 5.58 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 26 | 23 | 103 | 446 | 77 | 43 | 15 | 88% | 3.9 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 55 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 38 | 24 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 5.16 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 32 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.5% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.46 | 5.66 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 26 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.80 | 6.03 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | PIT | 38 | 0 | 40 | 170 | 21 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.4% | 11.7% | 0.7% | 4.6% | 6.18 | 6.43 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 32 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.5% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.46 | 5.66 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 26 | 21 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.80 | 6.03 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | PIT | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 21 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.4% | 11.7% | 0.7% | 4.6% | 6.18 | 6.43 | -0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 340 | 35 | 564 | 2391 | 410 | 203 | 90 | 10% | 1.7 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 4.76 | 4.80 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 12 | 200 | 848 | 145 | 72 | 32 | 10% | 1.7 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 4.76 | 4.80 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 319 | 125 | 903 | 3844 | 688 | 300 | 116 | 39% | 2.8 | 17.9% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.23 | +12.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 28 | 200 | 852 | 152 | 67 | 26 | 39% | 2.8 | 17.9% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Cessa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | — | 6.01 | 13.5% | 2.5% | 139 | +0.68 | — | — | — |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 79 |
| Juan Omar Espinoza R 2024 · 4.95 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.95 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.68 | 104 | 77 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 76 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 75 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.60 | 17.5% | 8.6% | 5.3% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 605 | 74 |
| Jason Berken R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 73 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 70 |
| Sam LeCure R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 69 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.22 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 269 | 69 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 66 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.10 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .356 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 290 | 64 |
| Jerome Williams R 2026 · 5.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.94 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.79 | 195 | 63 |
| Chris Young R 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 62 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 62 |
| Zach Neal R 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.99 | 15.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 732 | 62 |
| Thad Weber R 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.86 | 13.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | .398 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.55 | 363 | 61 |
| Fernando Villalobos R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.73 | 10.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 152 | 61 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.67 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .304 | 3.59 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -1.08 | 2.78 | 326 | 60 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.82 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.22 | 187 | 59 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.79 | 15.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .302 | 6.00 | 19.2% | 9.8% | 21 | +1.21 | 4.68 | 150 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 14.1% | 10.7% | 1.53 | 5.60 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |