Luis Cessa — OGILVIE

Luis Cessa P Indianapolis Indians

Age 34 RHP 6'0" / 222 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132123vR 115

ERA5.07

FIP5.18

K%14.8%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p1014.6%

p108.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.433

CH-1.6

SL-4.1

FB-7.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	139	607	119	35	7	100%	5.6	16.5%	6.2%	10.4%	1.4%	4.52	3.23	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	139	607	119	35	7	100%	5.6	19.6%	5.8%	13.8%	1.2%	4.52	2.80	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	23	148	594	115	37	24	72%	4.6	18.0%	6.4%	11.5%	4.0%	3.66	4.60	+0.5
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	23	148	594	115	37	24	72%	4.6	19.4%	6.2%	13.1%	4.0%	3.66	4.41	+0.9
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	114	486	97	43	14	75%	4.8	18.3%	9.1%	9.2%	2.6%	3.86	4.15	+1.0
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	114	486	97	43	14	75%	4.8	20.0%	8.8%	11.1%	2.9%	3.86	4.12	+1.1
2018	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	13	83	346	77	22	6	52%	3.3	20.5%	5.8%	14.7%	1.9%	4.25	3.16	+1.8
2018	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	13	83	346	77	22	6	52%	3.3	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	1.7%	4.25	2.98	+1.9
2019	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	43	0	81	343	75	30	14	0%	1.9	21.9%	8.7%	13.1%	3.8%	4.11	4.46	+0.1
2019	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	43	0	81	343	75	30	14	0%	1.9	21.9%	8.7%	13.1%	4.1%	4.11	4.61	-0.1
2020	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	16	0	22	93	17	7	2	0%	1.4	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	2.0%	3.32	3.62	+0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	16	0	22	93	17	7	2	0%	1.4	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	2.2%	3.32	3.70	+0.2
2021	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	53	0	65	261	54	18	5	0%	1.2	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	1.8%	2.51	3.20	+1.0
2021	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	53	0	65	261	54	18	5	0%	1.2	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	1.9%	2.51	3.27	+1.0
2022	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	46	10	81	336	59	28	14	22%	1.8	17.6%	8.3%	9.2%	3.9%	4.57	4.79	-0.2
2022	30	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	46	10	81	336	59	28	14	22%	1.8	17.6%	8.3%	9.2%	4.2%	4.57	4.93	-0.4
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	13	68	332	53	31	12	45%	2.3	13.8%	8.8%	5.0%	3.7%	8.74	5.05	-0.4
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	13	68	332	53	31	12	45%	2.3	13.8%	8.8%	5.0%	3.7%	8.74	5.05	-0.4
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	13	68	332	53	31	12	45%	2.3	16.0%	9.3%	6.6%	3.6%	8.74	5.20	-0.5
2024	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	26	23	103	446	77	43	15	88%	3.9	14.3%	8.7%	5.7%	4.1%	4.73	5.22	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	26	23	103	446	77	43	15	88%	3.9	14.3%	8.7%	5.7%	4.1%	4.73	5.22	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	26	23	103	446	77	43	15	88%	3.9	17.3%	9.6%	7.6%	3.4%	4.73	4.76	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			208	35	425	1805	331	139	66	17%	2.0	18.3%	7.7%	10.6%	3.7%	4.43	4.54	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	PIT	5	0	5	21	3	2	1	0%	1.0	14.8%	8.7%	6.0%	3.4%	5.07	5.18	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	PIT	50	0	52	220	30	20	8	0%	1.0	13.8%	9.3%	4.5%	3.7%	5.34	5.51	-0.5
2028	36	MLB MLE	PIT	44	0	46	195	25	19	8	0%	1.1	12.8%	9.9%	2.9%	4.1%	5.67	5.88	-0.7
2029	37	MLB MLE	PIT	38	0	40	170	20	18	8	0%	1.1	11.7%	10.5%	1.2%	4.5%	6.04	6.28	-0.7
2027	35	MLB CTX	PIT	50	0	52	220	30	20	8	0%	1.0	13.8%	9.3%	4.5%	3.7%	5.34	5.51	-0.5
2028	36	MLB CTX	PIT	44	0	46	194	25	19	8	0%	1.0	12.8%	9.9%	2.9%	4.1%	5.67	5.88	-0.7
2029	37	MLB CTX	PIT	38	0	40	169	20	18	8	0%	1.1	11.7%	10.5%	1.2%	4.5%	6.04	6.28	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		340	35	564	2391	406	197	90	10%	1.7	17.0%	8.2%	8.8%	3.8%	4.73	4.77	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		121	12	200	848	144	70	32	10%	1.7	17.0%	8.2%	8.8%	3.8%	4.73	4.77	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		319	125	903	3844	682	291	114	39%	2.8	17.7%	7.6%	10.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.19	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	28	200	852	151	64	25	39%	2.8	17.7%	7.6%	10.2%	3.0%	4.41	4.19	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Cessa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	14.8%	8.7%	3.4%	—	5.86	12.9%	3.0%	139	+0.68	—	—	—
Alexi Ogando R 2018 · 4.10 FIP	34	SW	4.10	15.0%	6.4%	2.6%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	132	82
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	79
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	78
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	77
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	219	76
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	75
Tim Adleman R 2022 · 5.69 FIP	34	SP-	5.69	17.5%	8.6%	5.4%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	605	73
Sam LeCure R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	32	SW	4.17	16.6%	6.5%	3.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	171	70
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	33	SW	4.95	18.3%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.81	11.4%	6.4%	27	-1.14	3.80	284	69
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	68
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	67
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	66
Jerome Williams R 2016 · 5.81 FIP	34	SW	5.81	11.7%	6.1%	5.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	195	64
George Kontos R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	34	SU	5.01	15.4%	9.0%	3.8%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	290	62
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	62
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	212	62
Thad Weber R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	32	SP-	5.25	13.2%	4.4%	4.9%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	363	62
Zach Neal R 2023 · 6.01 FIP	34	SW	6.01	15.3%	6.0%	6.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	732	62
Fernando Villalobos R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	32	SU	4.70	10.6%	8.0%	2.7%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	152	61
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	13.4%	9.5%	1.49	5.48
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77