Ian Anderson

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	AAAATL	1	1	1	54.00	67.60	11.1%	22.2%	—	K 11.1% · BB 22.2% · FIP 23.27
2024	26	MIX4 levels	15	15	68	3.44	3.72	23.8%	10.1%	—	K 20.0% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.68
2025	27	MIX3 levels	19	12	58	6.36	4.70	17.0%	14.8%	0.5	K 14.9% · BB 14.0% · FIP 4.74
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAA	8	8	46	5.08	5.08	18.3%	12.2%	0.2
2028PROJ56% MLB	30	MLBLAA	10	10	62	5.20	5.28	17.6%	12.5%	0.1
2029PROJ72% MLB	31	MLBLAA	11	11	64	5.39	5.52	16.8%	12.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsNate Long (age 29) · Patrick Johnson (age 30) · Matt Buschmann (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 113

ERA5.08

FIP5.08

K%18.3%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP152

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	10	10	40	157	36	12	1	100%	4.0	15.6%	9.6%	6.0%	0.9%	2.04	3.48	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	10	10	40	157	36	12	1	100%	4.0	22.9%	7.6%	15.3%	0.6%	2.04	2.52	—
2017	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	20	20	83	355	101	43	0	100%	4.2	21.1%	14.3%	6.8%	0.0%	3.14	3.13	—
2017	19	A RAW	Rome Braves	20	20	83	355	101	43	0	100%	4.2	28.5%	12.1%	16.3%	0.0%	3.14	2.22	—
2018	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	119	494	142	49	2	100%	5.0	22.3%	11.3%	11.0%	0.5%	2.49	2.93	—
2018	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	119	494	142	49	2	100%	5.0	28.7%	9.9%	18.8%	0.4%	2.49	2.17	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	136	575	172	64	13	100%	5.2	24.5%	12.1%	12.4%	2.9%	3.38	4.16	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	136	575	172	64	13	100%	5.2	29.9%	11.1%	18.8%	2.3%	3.38	3.23	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	6	6	32	138	41	14	1	100%	5.4	29.7%	10.1%	19.6%	0.7%	1.95	2.27	+1.3
2020	22	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	6	6	32	138	41	14	1	100%	5.4	29.7%	10.1%	19.6%	0.7%	1.95	2.26	+1.3
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	28	143	599	144	60	16	100%	5.1	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	2.7%	3.59	3.85	+2.7
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	28	143	599	144	60	16	100%	5.1	24.0%	10.0%	14.0%	2.7%	3.59	3.80	+2.8
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	133	591	120	64	14	100%	5.1	19.8%	10.9%	8.9%	2.4%	5.06	4.13	+2.0
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	133	591	120	64	14	100%	5.1	20.3%	10.8%	9.5%	2.4%	5.06	4.11	+2.0
2023	25	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	1	1	1	9	1	2	3	100%	0.7	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	33.3%	54.00	23.27	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	1	1	1	9	1	2	3	100%	0.7	11.1%	22.2%	-11.1%	33.3%	54.00	67.60	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	68	286	68	29	7	100%	4.5	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	3.5%	3.44	4.68	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	15	68	286	68	29	7	100%	4.5	20.0%	10.7%	9.3%	3.5%	3.44	4.68	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	15	68	286	68	29	7	100%	4.5	23.8%	10.1%	13.6%	2.4%	3.44	3.72	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	12	58	270	46	40	5	63%	3.1	14.9%	14.0%	0.9%	2.0%	6.36	4.74	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	12	58	270	46	40	5	63%	3.1	14.9%	14.0%	0.9%	2.0%	6.36	4.74	+0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	12	58	270	46	40	5	63%	3.1	17.0%	14.8%	2.2%	1.9%	6.36	4.70	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			59	52	282	1217	270	125	31	88%	4.8	22.2%	10.3%	11.9%	2.5%	4.22	3.94	+4.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAA	8	8	46	194	36	24	6	100%	5.8	18.3%	12.2%	6.1%	2.9%	5.08	5.08	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	110	464	82	58	14	100%	6.1	17.6%	12.5%	5.1%	3.1%	5.20	5.28	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	89	374	63	48	12	100%	5.9	16.8%	12.8%	4.0%	3.3%	5.39	5.52	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAA	10	10	62	262	46	33	8	100%	6.2	17.6%	12.5%	5.1%	3.1%	5.20	5.28	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	LAA	11	11	64	270	46	35	9	100%	5.8	16.8%	12.8%	4.0%	3.3%	5.39	5.52	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		80	73	408	1748	361	192	48	91%	5.1	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.8%	4.55	4.26	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	36	200	858	177	94	24	91%	5.1	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.8%	4.55	4.26	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		175	168	813	3474	749	400	71	96%	4.6	21.6%	11.5%	10.0%	2.0%	3.68	3.85	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	41	200	855	184	98	17	96%	4.6	21.6%	11.5%	10.0%	2.0%	3.68	3.85	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 37 IPFIP 4.50 → 4.57 (+0.07)K% 16.0% → 13.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.98%	—	×0.860	13.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.57%	—	×0.900	14.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷0.961	×1.100	1.35%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 4.50 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 12 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.68 (+0.82)K% 22.0% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.00%	—	×0.810	17.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.100	13.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷0.934	×1.200	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 52 IPFIP 4.32 → 4.68 (+0.35)K% 23.2% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.25%	—	×0.860	19.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.84%	—	×0.900	10.66%
HR / BF /BF	3.07%	÷0.968	×1.100	3.49%

Result: FIP 4.32 → 4.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAugusta GreenJackets · 6 IPFIP 1.95 → 2.75 (+0.81)K% 27.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.740	20.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.180	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.010	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 1.95 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 22 IPFIP 3.53 → 3.97 (+0.44)K% 23.5% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.47%	—	×0.880	20.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×1.050	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷0.981	×1.100	2.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 15 IPFIP 2.24 → 2.65 (+0.41)K% 31.2% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.880	27.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.06%	—	×1.050	14.77%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.001	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.24 → 2.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAMississippi Braves · 111 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.58 (+0.95)K% 31.8% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.82%	—	×0.810	25.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.96%	—	×1.100	10.95%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷0.900	×1.200	2.31%

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 25 IPFIP 5.68 → 6.55 (+0.87)K% 22.1% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.12%	—	×0.880	19.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.93%	—	×1.050	16.73%
HR / BF /BF	4.42%	÷0.899	×1.100	5.41%

Result: FIP 5.68 → 6.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	5.39	17.3%	4.6%	199	+0.31	—	—	—
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	83
Patrick Johnson R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	30	SP	4.14	15.7%	9.3%	2.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	248	78
Matt Buschmann R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	31	SP	4.03	17.2%	8.7%	2.3%	.282	4.84	12.8%	4.4%	142	+0.81	4.03	277	76
Manuel Flores R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	29	SP	4.03	13.8%	7.1%	2.2%	.317	3.57	14.4%	9.2%	263	-0.46	3.46	515	73
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	73
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	72
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	72
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	70
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	70
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	70
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	70
Octavio Acosta R 2019 · 4.19 FIP	28	SP	4.19	14.9%	8.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	333	69
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	69
Greg Peavey R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	27	SP	4.39	11.2%	6.5%	2.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.39	147	69
Toru Murata R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	30	SP	4.04	13.3%	6.9%	2.2%	.261	3.63	12.9%	7.2%	102	-0.41	3.63	267	69
Mario Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	29	SP	3.94	17.9%	5.7%	2.9%	.276	4.53	14.1%	9.1%	104	+0.59	3.94	368	67
Cory Riordan R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP	4.24	14.3%	5.0%	3.1%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	154	67
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	66
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	66
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	105	19.7%	11.6%	1.10	4.76
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Jeff Sellers ('85-'88, 2 WAR*)	1.6	82	20.1%*	10.7%*	0.93*	4.87*
Pat Combs ('89-'92, 2 WAR*)	1.5	102	18.2%*	11.0%*	0.87*	4.83*
Tony Armas ('08)	4.6	116	16.8%	10.6%	1.19	4.65