Trent Sellers

P Somerset Patriots

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 207 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	32	9	84	2.26	2.61	30.1%	12.0%	—	K 23.4% · BB 13.2% · FIP 3.41
2025	25	AANYY	22	22	96	3.92	3.70	26.9%	12.1%	—	K 21.8% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.50
2026	26	MIX2 levels	31	11	79	4.54	3.94	28.5%	13.3%	—	K 23.6% · BB 14.7% · FIP 4.79
2027PROJ	27	MLBNYY	1	0	1	5.00	5.00	23.0%	14.3%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBNYY	19	0	20	4.98	5.02	22.9%	13.9%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBNYY	24	0	25	5.03	5.10	22.7%	13.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control40Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsShawn Dubin (age 27) · Cameron Foster (age 25) · Cody Sedlock (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%23.0%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%8.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	9	84	332	100	40	3	28%	2.6	23.4%	13.2%	10.2%	1.1%	2.26	3.41	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	9	84	332	100	40	3	28%	2.6	23.4%	13.2%	10.2%	1.1%	2.26	3.41	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	9	84	332	100	40	3	28%	2.6	30.1%	12.0%	18.1%	0.9%	2.26	2.61	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	22	22	96	412	111	50	10	100%	4.4	21.8%	13.3%	8.5%	2.8%	3.92	4.50	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	22	22	96	412	111	50	10	100%	4.4	21.8%	13.3%	8.5%	2.8%	3.92	4.50	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	22	22	96	412	111	50	10	100%	4.4	26.9%	12.1%	14.8%	2.4%	3.92	3.70	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	11	79	368	105	49	10	35%	2.6	23.6%	14.7%	9.0%	3.3%	4.54	4.79	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	11	79	368	105	49	10	35%	2.6	23.6%	14.7%	9.0%	3.3%	4.54	4.79	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	11	79	368	105	49	10	35%	2.6	28.5%	13.3%	15.2%	2.7%	4.54	3.94	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	NYY	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	23.0%	14.3%	8.7%	3.0%	5.00	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYY	51	0	53	225	52	31	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	3.1%	4.98	5.02	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	NYY	43	0	45	191	43	26	6	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.8%	8.9%	3.3%	5.03	5.10	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYY	19	0	20	84	19	12	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	3.1%	4.98	5.02	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	NYY	24	0	25	106	24	15	3	0%	1.0	22.7%	13.8%	8.9%	3.3%	5.03	5.10	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	45	191	44	26	6	0%	1.1	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	3.2%	5.01	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	115	27	0%	1.1	22.8%	13.9%	8.9%	3.2%	5.01	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		85	42	259	1112	254	153	28	49%	3.1	22.9%	13.7%	9.1%	2.5%	3.57	4.27	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	32	200	858	196	118	21	49%	3.1	22.9%	13.7%	9.1%	2.5%	3.57	4.27	-1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 78 IPFIP 3.85 → 4.79 (+0.94)K% 29.2% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.17%	—	×0.810	23.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.100	14.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.85 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 96 IPFIP 3.69 → 4.50 (+0.81)K% 26.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.94%	—	×0.810	21.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.14%	—	×1.100	13.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.43%	÷1.030	×1.200	2.83%

Result: FIP 3.69 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 82 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.41 (+0.91)K% 30.3% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.34%	—	×0.770	23.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.46%	—	×1.150	13.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.032	×1.250	1.12%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trent Sellers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	23.0%	14.3%	3.0%	—	5.06	22.8%	8.9%	99	+0.06	—	—	—
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	76
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	75
Cody Sedlock R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	27	SW	4.21	20.1%	13.0%	2.1%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	378	75
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	75
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	75
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	75
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	75
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.47	18.6%	9.0%	205	+0.03	4.04	577	74
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	73
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	73
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	73
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	72
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	71
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	71
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	71
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	70
Cory Abbott R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	27	SW	4.88	23.5%	11.9%	4.1%	.300	5.04	22.1%	12.8%	151	+0.16	3.86	703	70
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	70
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	70
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	22.9%	14.1%	1.20	5.00
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*