Trent Sellers — OGILVIE

Trent Sellers P Somerset Patriots

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 207 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%22.2%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	9	84	332	100	40	3	28%	2.6	23.4%	13.2%	10.2%	1.1%	2.26	3.41	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	9	84	332	100	40	3	28%	2.6	23.4%	13.2%	10.2%	1.1%	2.26	3.41	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	9	84	332	100	40	3	28%	2.6	30.1%	12.0%	18.1%	0.9%	2.26	2.61	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	22	22	96	412	111	50	10	100%	4.4	21.8%	13.3%	8.5%	2.8%	3.92	4.50	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	22	22	96	412	111	50	10	100%	4.4	21.8%	13.3%	8.5%	2.8%	3.92	4.50	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	22	22	96	412	111	50	10	100%	4.4	26.9%	12.1%	14.8%	2.4%	3.92	3.70	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	30	11	78	365	103	49	10	37%	2.6	23.4%	14.8%	8.6%	3.4%	4.60	4.84	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	30	11	78	365	103	49	10	37%	2.6	23.4%	14.8%	8.6%	3.4%	4.60	4.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	NYY	29	11	77	357	103	48	10	38%	2.7	28.9%	13.4%	15.4%	2.8%	4.31	3.90	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	NYY	1	0	1	8	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	12.5%	-12.5%	0.0%	27.00	4.68	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	NYY	6	0	6	27	6	4	1	0%	1.1	22.2%	13.5%	8.7%	2.8%	4.85	4.85	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	85	392	109	53	11	—	—	27.8%	13.4%	14.4%	2.7%	4.61	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	85	361	80	47	10	100%	6.1	22.2%	13.0%	9.2%	2.9%	4.81	4.83	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	83	350	77	45	10	100%	5.9	22.0%	12.8%	9.3%	3.0%	4.83	4.87	+0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	NYY	13	13	79	334	79	40	10	100%	6.1	23.8%	11.9%	11.8%	3.1%	4.74	4.70	+0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	NYY	12	12	74	314	74	38	10	100%	6.2	23.4%	12.2%	11.3%	3.3%	4.81	4.86	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYY	5	5	32	135	30	18	4	100%	6.4	22.2%	13.0%	9.2%	3.1%	4.92	4.94	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	49	207	46	26	7	100%	6.1	22.0%	12.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.94	4.98	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	NYY	9	9	56	236	56	28	8	100%	6.2	23.8%	11.9%	11.8%	3.3%	4.86	4.82	+0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	NYY	10	10	58	245	57	30	9	100%	5.8	23.4%	12.2%	11.3%	3.5%	4.93	4.98	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		33	33	196	826	190	102	27	100%	5.9	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.3%	4.91	4.55	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	194	104	28	100%	6.0	23.0%	12.4%	10.6%	3.3%	4.91	4.55	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		84	42	258	1109	253	153	28	50%	3.1	22.8%	13.8%	9.0%	2.5%	3.59	4.29	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	33	200	859	196	118	21	50%	3.1	22.8%	13.8%	9.0%	2.5%	3.59	4.29	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trent Sellers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	22.2%	13.5%	2.8%	—	4.80	22.6%	10.1%	247	-0.05	—	—	—
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	81
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	80
Bryce Conley R 2021 · 4.31 FIP	26	SW	4.31	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.22	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.09	4.22	560	79
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	5.00	17.7%	4.6%	131	-0.27	4.34	382	78
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	77
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	76
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	76
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	76
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	75
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	75
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	75
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	75
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	75
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	74
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	74
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	74
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	74
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	74
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	74
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	78	22.7%	12.7%	1.17	4.81
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91