Trent Sellers — OGILVIE

Trent Sellers P Somerset Patriots

+0.6 WAR

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 207 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2026

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.6%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%10.9%

IP92

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2026

K†5555

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	32	9	84	332	100	40	3	23.4%	13.2%	1.1%	2.26	3.41	+1.7
2025	25	AA	Somerset Patriots	22	22	96	412	111	50	10	21.8%	13.3%	2.9%	3.92	4.51	+0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	AA	Somerset Patriots	2	2	8	43	13	6	2	—	—	—	11.25	—	—
ROS	26	MLB	NYY	17	17	92	387	88	46	11	22.6%	11.8%	2.8%	4.59	4.59	+0.7
2026 Total	26	MLB	NYY	—	—	100	430	101	52	13	23.4%	12.0%	3.0%	5.12	4.22	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	27	MLB	NYY	17	17	95	401	91	46	11	22.6%	11.4%	2.8%	4.57	4.57	+0.7
2028	28	MLB	NYY	17	17	96	403	91	45	12	22.5%	11.2%	2.9%	4.56	4.57	+0.7
2029	29	MLB	NYY	17	17	93	394	88	44	12	22.4%	11.1%	2.9%	4.58	4.60	+0.7
2030	30	MLB	NYY	16	16	91	383	85	42	11	22.1%	11.1%	3.0%	4.62	4.65	+0.6
2031	31	MLB	NYY	16	16	87	369	81	41	11	21.9%	11.2%	3.1%	4.68	4.73	+0.5
2032	32	MLB	NYY	15	15	84	354	77	40	11	21.6%	11.3%	3.1%	4.76	4.81	+0.3
2033	33	MLB	NYY	15	15	80	338	72	39	11	21.3%	11.5%	3.2%	4.85	4.91	+0.2
2034	34	MLB	NYY	14	14	76	321	74	35	11	23.0%	10.9%	3.3%	4.79	4.75	+0.3
2035	35	MLB	NYY	13	13	72	303	68	34	10	22.6%	11.2%	3.4%	4.84	4.87	+0.1
2036	36	MLB	NYY	12	12	67	283	63	32	10	22.1%	11.4%	3.6%	4.94	5.01	+0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			56	33	188	787	180	105	17	22.9%	13.3%	2.2%	3.49	4.07	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—			60	35	200	837	191	112	18	22.9%	13.3%	2.2%	3.49	4.07	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trent Sellers (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	22.6%	11.8%	2.8%	—	4.58	22.5%	11.3%	284	-0.01	—	—	—
Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	26	SP-	3.79	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.90	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.11	3.79	223	85
Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP-	3.98	18.4%	8.9%	2.4%	.315	5.24	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.26	3.98	115	84
Yariel Rodríguez R 2027 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP-	3.76	25.1%	11.8%	2.3%	.275	3.86	22.1%	11.7%	73	+0.10	3.76	180	83
Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	18.1%	11.0%	1.7%	.280	3.12	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.12	178	82
David Lebron R 2025 · 4.30 FIP	25	SP-	4.30	18.6%	14.2%	1.8%	.336	5.70	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.40	4.30	144	81
Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP	27	SP-	3.80	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.62	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.82	3.80	500	81
Hansel Robles R 2026 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	22.1%	11.6%	4.2%	.267	3.59	25.5%	17.6%	145	-1.44	2.71	469	81
Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP	27	SP-	4.89	21.0%	10.1%	4.2%	.327	3.06	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.83	2.32	1,443	81
Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	26	SP-	4.78	19.7%	9.7%	3.9%	.262	3.93	22.1%	13.0%	127	-0.85	3.50	472	80
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	26	SP-	3.98	25.0%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.10	22.5%	14.0%	74	+0.12	3.98	481	80
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.35 FIP	26	SP-	4.35	17.9%	12.2%	2.2%	.285	4.28	16.4%	5.3%	48	-0.07	4.28	448	80
Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.81	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.93	3.19	308	80
Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP	25	SP-	3.85	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.58	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.73	3.85	141	79
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.50 FIP	26	SP-	3.50	22.7%	8.4%	2.3%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	368	79
Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP	26	SP-	4.43	17.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.393	4.26	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.17	4.26	166	79
Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.30	3.27	339	79
R.J. Gordon R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP-	4.31	21.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	129	79
Jake Bockenstedt R 2025 · 4.46 FIP	25	SP-	4.46	16.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	195	79
Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 5.11 FIP	26	SP-	5.11	19.9%	10.9%	4.2%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.90	4.21	378	79
Kevin Abel R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	26	SP-	4.51	17.8%	12.0%	2.5%	.264	5.78	15.1%	-7.3%	13	+1.27	4.50	352	78

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.2	$1.0M	+$0.6M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.3	$2M	+$0.5M
Totals		$5M		$12M	+$7M