Cory Abbott

P Round Rock Express

Age 31 RHP 6'2" / 217 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	27	MIX2 levels	35	13	95	5.66	4.83	25.8%	12.8%	-0.3	K 23.5% · BB 11.9% · FIP 4.88
2024	28	AAACWS	31	10	74	5.93	5.17	25.1%	9.7%	—	K 21.6% · BB 8.7% · FIP 5.55
2025	29	AAATEX	20	17	76	6.48	4.08	26.2%	11.0%	—	K 22.6% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.54
2026	30	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	31	MLBTEX	3	3	16	4.75	4.87	21.4%	9.4%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBTEX	8	8	45	4.98	5.13	20.6%	9.8%	0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBTEX	9	9	54	5.24	5.41	19.7%	10.3%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

K%47

xwOBA vs22

FB Velo19

CompsHisashi Iwakuma (age 31) · Kenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Scott Copeland (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.75

FIP4.87

K%21.4%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%11.9%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p5526.1%

p4721.7%

xwOBA vs

p220.345

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	115	467	131	39	8	100%	5.2	21.2%	9.7%	11.5%	2.4%	2.50	3.87	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	115	467	131	39	8	100%	5.2	28.1%	8.4%	19.7%	1.7%	2.50	2.74	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	26	26	147	598	166	52	15	100%	5.6	22.5%	9.6%	12.9%	2.6%	3.01	3.86	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	26	26	147	598	166	52	15	100%	5.6	27.8%	8.7%	19.1%	2.5%	3.01	3.23	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	113	518	142	64	27	77%	4.4	24.4%	12.9%	11.5%	5.3%	6.04	5.60	-0.3
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	113	518	142	64	27	77%	4.4	27.4%	12.4%	15.1%	5.2%	6.04	5.39	+0.0
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	17	82	373	85	44	18	61%	2.9	21.5%	12.1%	9.5%	4.8%	5.14	5.47	-0.1
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	17	82	373	85	44	18	61%	2.9	22.8%	11.8%	11.0%	4.8%	5.14	5.48	-0.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	13	95	423	109	54	17	37%	2.7	23.5%	11.9%	11.5%	4.1%	5.66	4.88	-0.4
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	13	95	423	109	54	17	37%	2.7	25.8%	12.8%	13.0%	4.0%	5.66	4.83	-0.3
2024	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	31	10	74	319	80	31	17	32%	2.4	21.6%	8.7%	12.8%	5.8%	5.93	5.55	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	31	10	74	319	80	31	17	32%	2.4	21.6%	8.7%	12.8%	5.8%	5.93	5.55	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	31	10	74	319	80	31	17	32%	2.4	25.1%	9.7%	15.4%	5.3%	5.93	5.17	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	20	17	76	347	91	38	11	85%	3.8	22.6%	9.9%	12.7%	3.8%	6.48	4.54	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	20	17	76	347	91	38	11	85%	3.8	22.6%	9.9%	12.7%	3.8%	6.48	4.54	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	20	17	76	347	91	38	11	85%	3.8	26.2%	11.0%	15.3%	3.2%	6.48	4.08	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	10	105	481	97	55	28	22%	2.3	20.2%	11.4%	8.7%	5.8%	6.02	6.30	-2.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	TEX	3	3	16	68	14	6	2	100%	5.3	21.4%	9.4%	11.9%	3.6%	4.75	4.87	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	TEX	21	21	123	520	107	51	20	100%	5.9	20.6%	9.8%	10.8%	3.9%	4.98	5.13	+0.4
2029	33	MLB MLE	TEX	16	16	98	416	82	43	17	100%	6.2	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	4.2%	5.24	5.41	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	45	190	39	19	7	100%	5.6	20.6%	9.8%	10.8%	3.9%	4.98	5.13	+0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	TEX	9	9	54	228	45	23	10	100%	6.0	19.7%	10.3%	9.4%	4.2%	5.24	5.41	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	27	204	902	182	97	45	44%	3.3	20.1%	10.8%	9.3%	5.0%	5.58	5.51	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		60	26	200	883	178	95	44	43%	3.3	20.1%	10.8%	9.3%	5.0%	5.58	5.51	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		188	125	703	3045	687	327	122	66%	3.7	22.5%	10.7%	11.8%	4.0%	4.71	4.75	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	36	200	866	195	93	35	66%	3.7	22.5%	10.7%	11.8%	4.0%	4.71	4.75	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 76 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.54 (+0.53)K% 26.2% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.22%	—	×0.860	22.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.95%	—	×0.900	9.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷0.913	×1.100	3.82%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 74 IPFIP 5.14 → 5.55 (+0.42)K% 25.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.08%	—	×0.860	21.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.72%	—	×0.900	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	5.33%	÷1.016	×1.100	5.77%

Result: FIP 5.14 → 5.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 56 IPFIP 4.35 → 4.58 (+0.23)K% 28.7% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.75%	—	×0.860	24.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.58%	—	×0.900	13.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.058	×1.100	3.47%

Result: FIP 4.35 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 34 IPFIP 4.58 → 4.94 (+0.36)K% 25.5% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.48%	—	×0.880	22.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.10%	—	×1.050	12.71%
HR / BF /BF	3.82%	÷1.084	×1.100	3.88%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 4.58 → 4.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAIowa Cubs · 96 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.06 (+0.42)K% 29.8% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.82%	—	×0.880	26.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.16%	—	×1.050	12.76%
HR / BF /BF	4.59%	÷1.081	×1.100	4.67%

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATennessee Smokies · 147 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.86 (+0.63)K% 27.8% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.76%	—	×0.810	22.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.100	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.51%	÷1.142	×1.200	2.64%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Myrtle Beach Pelicans · 68 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.52 (+0.88)K% 26.2% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.24%	—	×0.770	20.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×1.150	10.60%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.933	×1.250	1.43%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ASouth Bend Cubs · 47 IPFIP 2.87 → 4.41 (+1.54)K% 30.8% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.81%	—	×0.740	22.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.03%	—	×1.180	8.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷0.881	×1.300	3.99%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 2.87 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cory Abbott (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.6%	—	5.25	20.2%	10.2%	222	+0.38	—	—	—
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2012 · 4.28 FIP	31	SP-	4.28	19.5%	7.7%	3.4%	.277	3.45	21.5%	17.8%	528	-0.83	3.19	884	78
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	71
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	69
Jorge Campillo R 2008 · 3.93 FIP	29	SP-	3.93	16.3%	5.5%	2.8%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	172	67
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	3.84	193	63
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	62
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	62
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	61
Scott Richmond R 2009 · 5.11 FIP	29	SP	5.11	19.2%	9.5%	4.4%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	166	61
Casey Lawrence R 2018 · 3.77 FIP	30	SP-	3.77	18.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.305	4.08	20.0%	14.8%	86	+0.31	3.57	1,374	61
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	61
Nate Long R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	29	SP	4.67	14.8%	10.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	151	60
Jarrett Grube R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	33	SP	3.75	18.7%	4.2%	3.1%	.285	4.57	17.3%	9.6%	253	+0.82	3.75	393	60
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	60
Mike Wright Jr. R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	31	SP-	3.89	19.1%	8.8%	2.4%	.237	4.79	14.4%	1.1%	56	+0.90	3.76	725	60
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.13	476	59
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	59
Luke Hudson R 2006 · 3.81 FIP	29	SP-	3.81	14.5%	8.4%	1.6%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	235	58
Tyler Cloyd R 2018 · 4.84 FIP	31	SP-	4.84	16.1%	6.0%	4.3%	.317	5.21	18.9%	9.4%	67	+0.37	3.89	343	58
Jose Samayoa R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP	4.05	19.4%	7.0%	3.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	262	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	98	20.6%	10.1%	1.66	5.18
Mike Campbell ('87-'96, -2 WAR*)	1.2	58	17.0%*	9.1%*	1.96*	5.82*
Steve Dunning ('70-'77, -1 WAR*)	3.1	123	20.2%*	11.5%*	1.71*	5.25*
Bill Faul ('62-'70, -1 WAR*)	1.3	87	18.8%*	9.1%*	1.82*	5.41*
Hector Noesí ('19)	2.1	70	16.4%	8.7%	1.53	5.51
Dave Williams ('07)	2.0	82	13.8%	9.3%	1.41	4.83
Ruben Quevedo ('03)	1.6	82	15.8%	11.7%	1.93	6.15