Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Astros | 5 | 1 | 13 | 57 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 20% | 2.6 | 28.6% | 11.0% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 2.07 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | FCL Astros | 5 | 1 | 13 | 57 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 20% | 2.6 | 42.1% | 8.8% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 2.08 | 0.56 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 24 | 15 | 83 | 378 | 111 | 59 | 5 | 62% | 3.5 | 21.7% | 18.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 4.64 | 4.65 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 24 | 15 | 83 | 378 | 111 | 59 | 5 | 62% | 3.5 | 29.4% | 15.6% | 13.8% | 1.3% | 4.64 | 3.34 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 13 | 88 | 414 | 120 | 63 | 14 | 52% | 3.5 | 22.3% | 17.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 5.81 | 5.05 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 25 | 13 | 88 | 414 | 120 | 63 | 14 | 52% | 3.5 | 29.0% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 5.81 | 4.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 60 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 58 | 247 | 57 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.1% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 4 | 4 | 28 | 118 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 7.0 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 7 | 45 | 192 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.29 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 88 | 26 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 54 | 29 | 185 | 849 | 191 | 148 | 19 | 54% | 3.4 | 22.5% | 17.5% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 5.02 | 4.67 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 31 | 200 | 919 | 207 | 161 | 21 | 54% | 3.4 | 22.5% | 17.5% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 5.02 | 4.67 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Deylen Miley (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.65 | 22.9% | 12.4% | 113 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 80 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 75 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 75 |
| Sam Lewis R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 75 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.0% | .278 | 6.71 | 16.4% | 2.4% | 16 | +2.71 | 4.00 | 464 | 74 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 72 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 71 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 71 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.2% | 10.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.43 | 27.1% | 20.7% | 45 | +0.51 | 3.92 | 287 | 70 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 70 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.37 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.49 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.12 | 3.37 | 205 | 70 |
| Asher Wojciechowski R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.02 | 23.4% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .299 | 4.94 | 21.5% | 13.1% | 323 | +0.92 | 3.19 | 678 | 69 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 69 |
| Justin Masterson R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 68 |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 68 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 68 |
| Blake Beers R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.20 | 18.3% | 9.1% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 416 | 68 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 67 |
| Trent Sellers R 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.09 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 4.0% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 236 | 67 |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 3.8% | .333 | 4.43 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | +0.05 | 3.67 | 381 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 1.22 | 4.54 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |