Riley Thompson
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 123 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 115
ERA5.09
FIP5.09
K%17.9%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%6.8%
ROS IP123
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | A | South Bend Cubs | 21 | 21 | 94 | 391 | 87 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 3.06 | 4.88 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | South Bend Cubs | 21 | 21 | 94 | 391 | 87 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 14.3% | 2.3% | 3.06 | 3.48 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 19 | 19 | 57 | 239 | 64 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 3.0 | 21.7% | 14.7% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 4.42 | 5.29 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 19 | 19 | 57 | 239 | 64 | 32 | 8 | 100% | 3.0 | 26.8% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.36 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 25 | 19 | 81 | 363 | 78 | 52 | 15 | 76% | 3.3 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.64 | 6.09 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 25 | 19 | 81 | 363 | 78 | 52 | 15 | 76% | 3.3 | 21.5% | 14.3% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 5.64 | 5.50 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 34 | 15 | 107 | 483 | 99 | 48 | 15 | 44% | 3.2 | 18.0% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 2.9% | 5.95 | 4.52 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 34 | 15 | 107 | 483 | 99 | 48 | 15 | 44% | 3.2 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 5.95 | 4.41 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 127 | 537 | 96 | 60 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.9% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 3.1% | 5.09 | 5.09 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 119 | 501 | 90 | 56 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.9% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 5.21 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 82 | 52 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 5.24 | 5.36 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 101 | 425 | 74 | 49 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.5% | 11.5% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 5.41 | 5.56 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 33 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.9% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 46 | 29 | 9 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 5.24 | 5.36 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 50 | 33 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.5% | 11.5% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 5.41 | 5.56 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 29 | 172 | 728 | 129 | 82 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 5.28 | 5.02 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 150 | 95 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 5.28 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 74 | 340 | 1476 | 272 | 177 | 56 | 75% | 3.4 | 18.4% | 12.0% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 5.13 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 44 | 200 | 869 | 160 | 104 | 33 | 75% | 3.4 | 18.4% | 12.0% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Thompson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 17.9% | 11.1% | 3.1% | — | 5.37 | 17.7% | 6.4% | 329 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 75 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 74 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 73 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.06 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.64 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.42 | 3.64 | 139 | 73 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.15 | 13.7% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .270 | 3.45 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 220 | -0.70 | 3.16 | 593 | 72 |
| Scott McGregor R 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.19 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 107 | 72 |
| Jerome Williams R 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | .326 | 5.94 | 11.7% | 5.6% | 74 | +1.15 | 4.79 | 195 | 71 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 71 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 70 |
| Luke Irvine R 2023 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 70 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 70 |
| Jeremy Kehrt R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.18 | 12.7% | 7.4% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.81 | 8.5% | -4.6% | 21 | +0.63 | 3.34 | 262 | 68 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 68 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 67 |
| Colin Bates R 2023 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 111 | 67 |
| Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .291 | 3.31 | 24.6% | 19.0% | 112 | -1.45 | 2.75 | 902 | 67 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 135 | 67 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 67 |
| Dylan Axelrod R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.75 | 14.1% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .304 | 4.43 | 13.7% | 7.4% | 133 | -0.32 | 4.43 | 251 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 114 | 17.8% | 11.2% | 1.33 | 5.21 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |