Riley Thompson — OGILVIE

Riley Thompson P Iowa Cubs

Age 30 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%16.9%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—35

STUF5050

CMD5050

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	A MLE	South Bend Cubs	21	21	94	391	87	31	9	100%	4.5	16.5%	9.4%	7.1%	3.3%	3.06	4.69	—
2019	23	A RAW	South Bend Cubs	21	21	94	391	87	31	9	100%	4.5	22.3%	7.9%	14.3%	2.3%	3.06	3.48	—
2022	26	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	19	19	57	239	64	32	8	100%	3.0	21.7%	14.7%	7.0%	4.0%	4.42	5.32	—
2022	26	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	19	19	57	239	64	32	8	100%	3.0	26.8%	13.4%	13.4%	3.3%	4.42	4.36	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	25	19	81	363	78	52	15	76%	3.3	17.8%	12.9%	4.9%	4.7%	5.64	5.81	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	25	19	81	363	78	52	15	76%	3.3	17.8%	12.9%	4.9%	4.7%	5.64	5.81	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	25	19	81	363	78	52	15	76%	3.3	21.5%	14.3%	7.2%	4.1%	5.64	5.50	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	34	15	107	483	99	48	15	44%	3.2	17.0%	8.9%	8.1%	3.2%	5.95	4.53	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	34	15	107	483	99	48	15	44%	3.2	17.0%	8.9%	8.1%	3.2%	5.95	4.53	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	34	15	107	483	99	48	15	44%	3.2	20.5%	9.9%	10.6%	3.1%	5.95	4.41	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	CHC	2	2	10	42	7	4	1	100%	5.0	16.9%	9.7%	7.2%	3.2%	5.02	5.02	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	119	501	85	49	17	100%	5.9	17.0%	9.8%	7.2%	3.4%	5.07	5.15	-0.3
2028	32	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	110	464	78	47	17	100%	6.1	16.9%	10.1%	6.9%	3.6%	5.18	5.30	-0.5
2027	31	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	44	186	32	18	6	100%	6.3	17.0%	9.8%	7.2%	3.4%	5.07	5.15	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	61	258	44	26	9	100%	6.1	16.9%	10.1%	6.9%	3.6%	5.18	5.30	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	17	104	440	75	44	15	100%	6.1	17.0%	10.0%	7.0%	3.5%	5.13	4.86	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	144	84	29	100%	6.0	17.0%	10.0%	7.0%	3.5%	5.13	4.86	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		99	74	340	1476	263	162	55	75%	3.4	17.8%	11.0%	6.9%	3.7%	4.82	5.02	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	44	200	869	155	95	32	75%	3.4	17.8%	11.0%	6.9%	3.7%	4.82	5.02	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riley Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	16.9%	9.7%	3.2%	—	5.22	17.0%	7.0%	228	+0.20	—	—	—
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	77
Daniel McCutchen R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	32	SP-	4.30	13.9%	4.4%	3.3%	.268	4.74	10.8%	4.9%	155	+0.44	4.30	287	76
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	76
Jerome Williams R 2015 · 4.72 FIP	33	SP-	4.72	13.4%	5.6%	3.7%	.326	5.81	11.7%	5.6%	74	+1.09	4.72	195	76
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	75
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	75
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	74
Jason Berken R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	31	SW	4.34	13.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.315	4.54	11.5%	3.2%	106	+0.20	4.34	219	73
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	73
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	72
Lucas Harrell R 2016 · 4.07 FIP	31	SP	4.07	15.7%	12.9%	1.2%	.310	3.57	16.2%	5.7%	30	-0.50	3.57	139	71
Scott Carroll R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	30	SW	3.92	12.7%	7.7%	1.7%	.286	5.07	11.2%	2.6%	128	+1.15	3.92	248	71
Jeremy Kehrt R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	30	SP	4.17	12.7%	7.4%	2.2%	.333	4.71	8.5%	-4.6%	21	+0.54	3.37	262	71
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	71
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	70
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	70
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	70
Dylan Axelrod R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	30	SP-	4.75	14.1%	6.6%	3.6%	.304	4.28	13.7%	7.4%	133	-0.47	4.28	251	69
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	30	SW	4.09	13.7%	8.7%	1.9%	.270	3.53	19.1%	10.5%	220	-0.56	3.13	593	69
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	119	16.9%	9.8%	1.31	5.09
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45