Riley Thompson
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.4
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.83
FIP4.83
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%9.9%
IP98
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
OFP—35
STUF5050
CMD5050
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | A | South Bend Cubs | 21 | 21 | 94 | 391 | 87 | 31 | 9 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 3.06 | 4.66 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 26 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 19 | 19 | 57 | 239 | 64 | 32 | 8 | 21.7% | 14.7% | 4.0% | 4.42 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 25 | 19 | 81 | 363 | 78 | 52 | 15 | 18.9% | 15.0% | 4.7% | 5.64 | 5.97 | -0.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 34 | 15 | 107 | 483 | 99 | 48 | 15 | 18.0% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 5.95 | 4.63 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 82 | 43 | 13 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.88 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 94 | 399 | 79 | 41 | 13 | 19.8% | 10.3% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.89 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 91 | 383 | 75 | 39 | 13 | 19.7% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.93 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 86 | 365 | 71 | 38 | 12 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 4.99 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 67 | 36 | 12 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.02 | 5.09 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 78 | 327 | 68 | 32 | 12 | 20.8% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 4.94 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 62 | 31 | 11 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 74 | 340 | 1476 | 272 | 177 | 54 | 18.4% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 5.08 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 58 | 44 | 200 | 869 | 160 | 104 | 32 | 18.4% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 4.82 | 5.08 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Riley Thompson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.88 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 3.2% | — | 4.94 | 19.6% | 9.3% | 272 | +0.06 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 88 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 86 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.52 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.86 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.34 | 4.52 | 150 | 84 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2028 · 4.56 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .316 | 4.46 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.46 | 143 | 84 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.36 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 84 |
| Mitch Atkins R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.70 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .341 | 4.75 | 14.3% | 6.2% | 78 | +1.05 | 3.70 | 205 | 83 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.16 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .265 | 3.45 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.71 | 3.45 | 315 | 80 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 80 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .289 | 4.45 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.05 | 4.33 | 221 | 79 |
| Ervin Santana R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .273 | 4.12 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.12 | 3.75 | 720 | 79 |
| Cesar Carrillo R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.8% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.46 | 12.6% | 2.6% | 145 | +0.30 | 4.16 | 325 | 79 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2029 · 3.74 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.74 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .262 | 4.37 | 16.2% | 8.2% | 114 | +0.63 | 3.74 | 240 | 79 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SP- | 3.77 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .270 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.86 | 3.77 | 264 | 78 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 78 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.13 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 248 | 78 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.94 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .315 | 4.95 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.01 | 3.94 | 567 | 78 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 262 | 77 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 77 |
| Lucas Harrell R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.07 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 1.2% | .310 | 3.58 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 30 | -0.49 | 3.58 | 139 | 76 |
| Luke Irvine R 2023 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.