Jaden Hamm — OGILVIE

Jaden Hamm P Erie SeaWolves

+0.5 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2030

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.7%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%11.3%

IP88

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2030

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	5	5	12	41	12	1	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2024	21	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	23	99	399	122	31	8	23.5%	8.9%	2.9%	2.64	3.82	+1.7
2025	22	AA	Erie SeaWolves	22	22	88	384	80	37	11	17.1%	9.8%	3.4%	4.70	4.78	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	DET	16	16	88	373	77	35	12	20.6%	9.4%	3.1%	4.63	4.63	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	DET	19	19	106	450	96	40	14	21.4%	8.9%	3.1%	4.53	4.48	+1.0
2028	25	MLB	DET	22	22	120	506	110	44	15	21.8%	8.6%	3.0%	4.45	4.40	+1.2
2029	26	MLB	DET	23	23	127	535	118	46	16	22.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.40	4.37	+1.3
2030	27	MLB	DET	24	24	130	548	121	47	17	22.0%	8.5%	3.1%	4.39	4.38	+1.4
2031	28	MLB	DET	24	24	130	548	121	47	17	22.0%	8.6%	3.1%	4.40	4.40	+1.3
2032	29	MLB	DET	23	23	127	536	117	46	17	21.9%	8.6%	3.1%	4.43	4.45	+1.2
2033	30	MLB	DET	22	22	123	520	113	45	17	21.6%	8.7%	3.2%	4.48	4.51	+1.1
2034	31	MLB	DET	22	22	119	502	107	45	16	21.4%	8.9%	3.3%	4.54	4.59	+1.0
2035	32	MLB	DET	21	21	114	482	102	43	16	21.1%	9.0%	3.3%	4.62	4.67	+0.8
2036	33	MLB	DET	20	20	109	460	96	42	16	20.8%	9.2%	3.4%	4.71	4.77	+0.7
2037	34	MLB	DET	19	19	104	437	89	41	15	20.5%	9.4%	3.5%	4.81	4.88	+0.5
2038	35	MLB	DET	18	18	98	412	83	40	15	20.1%	9.6%	3.6%	4.93	5.00	+0.3
2039	36	MLB	DET	17	17	91	385	76	38	14	19.7%	9.9%	3.8%	5.05	5.14	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			51	50	199	824	171	74	25	20.8%	9.0%	3.0%	3.39	4.12	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—			51	50	200	828	172	74	25	20.8%	9.0%	3.0%	3.39	4.12	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaden Hamm (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	20.6%	9.4%	3.1%	—	4.41	21.7%	13.1%	353	-0.22	—	—	—
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	94
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	93
Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	93
Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.0%	10.1%	2.0%	.285	5.74	19.4%	9.6%	160	+2.02	3.72	256	92
Rorik Maltrud R 2027 · 3.89 FIP	24	SP-	3.89	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.44	18.2%	7.0%	78	+0.55	3.89	183	92
Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	91
Kaleb Fontenot R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.78	3.71	155	91
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	90
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	90
Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP-	4.91	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.96	16.6%	4.6%	60	+0.05	4.91	157	90
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	90
Austin Cates R 2025 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP-	3.95	19.7%	9.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	110	90
Mitch Spence R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	20.3%	9.5%	2.8%	.314	4.52	19.2%	11.6%	445	+0.40	4.07	663	90
Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP-	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.41	21.9%	10.5%	63	+0.76	3.65	156	89
Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP-	3.99	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.73	3.99	188	89
Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP-	4.81	21.4%	10.8%	3.9%	.236	4.64	22.3%	3.9%	180	-0.17	4.22	289	89
Peyton Pallette R 2026 · 4.47 FIP	23	SP-	4.47	20.7%	10.9%	3.2%	.309	3.67	27.7%	16.5%	64	-0.80	3.67	219	89
Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP-	4.66	16.5%	9.4%	3.2%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.66	4.63	340	89
Nick Dean R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.99	21.6%	13.8%	65	+0.16	3.83	155	88
Luke Russo R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	3.92	21.5%	10.2%	38	+0.20	3.72	139	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.3	$11M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.3	$12M	+$11M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+1.2	$11M	+$9M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.1	$11M	+$7M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.0	$10M	+$6M
Totals		$13M		$68M	+$56M