Jaden Hamm

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#728ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	20	MIX2 levels	5	5	12	0.00	1.35	29.3%	2.4%	—	K 29.3% · BB 2.4% · FIP 0.94
2024	21	A+DET	24	23	99	2.64	2.63	30.6%	7.8%	—	K 23.5% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.79
2025	22	MIX2 levels	22	22	88	4.70	4.17	20.8%	9.6%	—	K 17.1% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.79
2026	23	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	24	MLBDET	1	1	1	4.90	4.90	18.4%	10.2%	0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	25	MLBDET	4	4	21	4.71	4.67	19.7%	9.8%	0.2
2029PROJ52% MLB	26	MLBDET	5	5	32	4.62	4.59	20.3%	9.6%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$1M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$2M

CompsCameron Foster (age 24) · Riley Thompson (age 23) · Will Sanders (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%18.4%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.1M
2033	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	12	41	12	1	0	100%	2.4	29.3%	2.4%	26.8%	0.0%	0.00	0.94	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	12	41	12	1	0	100%	2.4	29.3%	2.4%	26.8%	0.0%	0.00	1.35	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	23	99	399	122	31	8	96%	4.1	23.5%	8.9%	14.6%	2.8%	2.64	3.79	—
2024	21	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	23	99	399	122	31	8	96%	4.1	23.5%	8.9%	14.6%	2.8%	2.64	3.79	—
2024	21	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	23	99	399	122	31	8	96%	4.1	30.6%	7.8%	22.8%	2.0%	2.64	2.63	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	88	384	80	37	11	100%	4.0	17.1%	9.8%	7.3%	3.5%	4.70	4.79	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	88	384	80	37	11	100%	4.0	17.1%	9.8%	7.3%	3.5%	4.70	4.79	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	88	384	80	37	11	100%	4.0	20.8%	9.6%	11.2%	2.9%	4.70	4.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	DET	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	3.1%	4.90	4.90	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	66	277	54	27	8	100%	6.0	19.7%	9.8%	9.9%	3.1%	4.78	4.74	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	62	260	53	25	8	100%	6.2	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.0%	4.69	4.66	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	65	273	61	24	8	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	3.1%	4.51	4.41	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	DET	10	10	61	258	57	23	8	100%	6.1	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	3.2%	4.50	4.49	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	DET	9	9	57	239	53	22	8	100%	6.3	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	3.3%	4.57	4.62	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	DET	8	8	51	215	47	20	8	100%	6.4	21.6%	9.5%	12.2%	3.5%	4.71	4.80	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	21	89	17	9	3	100%	5.2	19.7%	9.8%	9.9%	2.9%	4.71	4.67	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	DET	5	5	32	135	27	13	4	100%	6.4	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	2.9%	4.62	4.59	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	41	173	39	15	5	100%	5.9	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	3.0%	4.44	4.34	+0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	44	186	41	17	6	100%	6.3	22.2%	8.9%	13.3%	3.1%	4.43	4.42	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	44	186	41	17	6	100%	6.3	22.0%	9.2%	12.8%	3.2%	4.49	4.54	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	DET	7	7	41	173	37	16	6	100%	5.9	21.6%	9.5%	12.2%	3.4%	4.63	4.72	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		37	37	223	943	203	87	29	100%	6.0	21.6%	9.2%	12.3%	3.1%	4.53	4.15	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	182	78	26	100%	6.0	21.6%	9.2%	12.3%	3.1%	4.53	4.15	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		51	50	199	824	171	74	25	98%	3.9	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.0%	3.39	4.12	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	50	200	828	172	74	25	98%	3.9	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.0%	3.39	4.12	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAErie SeaWolves · 83 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.79 (+0.68)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.810	17.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.86%	—	×1.100	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.05%	÷1.056	×1.200	3.46%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 111).

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 5 IPFIP 4.39 → 5.26 (+0.88)K% 17.4% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.740	12.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.74%	—	×1.180	25.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.864	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 4.39 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 99 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.79 (+1.19)K% 30.6% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.58%	—	×0.770	23.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.77%	—	×1.150	8.93%
HR / BF /BF	2.01%	÷0.889	×1.250	2.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 11 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.68 (+0.70)K% 28.9% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.95%	—	×0.740	21.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.63%	—	×1.180	3.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.216	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaden Hamm (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.60	20.8%	11.4%	192	-0.30	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.03	21.1%	11.2%	132	-0.28	2.50	213	86
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	86
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	85
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	82
Josh Bostick R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP	4.65	19.3%	11.2%	3.2%	.304	5.40	21.7%	12.6%	119	+0.75	4.65	226	82
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	82
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	82
Darren Bowen R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.7%	9.1%	2.2%	.312	6.06	14.4%	2.5%	150	+1.98	3.82	278	82
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	82
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	82
Ryan Bergert R 2024 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	16.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.317	4.27	21.4%	11.7%	121	+0.33	3.44	428	82
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	81
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	81
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	81
Bryce Osmond R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	12.4%	4.4%	.294	7.13	16.7%	3.8%	80	+1.57	5.56	177	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	80
Brett Wichrowski R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP	4.11	17.0%	11.2%	1.9%	.267	4.86	16.2%	5.6%	180	+0.75	4.03	269	80
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	80
Cade Kuehler R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	22	SP	4.22	15.5%	11.2%	1.8%	.266	7.37	12.2%	-2.2%	109	+3.15	4.22	159	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	61	20.9%	9.4%	1.23	4.67
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*