Ryan Garcia
P
Round Rock Express
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
AAA
ERA5.55
FIP5.55
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.0%
BB%12.7%
K-BB%8.3%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL3030
CMD3535
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 14 | 13 | 57 | 227 | 74 | 21 | 3 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | 1.91 | 3.71 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 26 | 26 | 99 | 442 | 110 | 62 | 20 | 20.2% | 15.4% | 5.6% | 6.66 | 6.42 | -1.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 24 | 24 | 124 | 525 | 126 | 57 | 11 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 4.21 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 27 | 6 | 55 | 261 | 57 | 39 | 15 | 19.2% | 15.7% | 7.0% | 7.64 | 7.33 | -1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 80 | 336 | 68 | 50 | 14 | 20.4% | 14.9% | 4.1% | 5.88 | 5.88 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 67 | 47 | 13 | 20.5% | 14.4% | 4.0% | 5.75 | 5.77 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 65 | 45 | 13 | 20.6% | 14.1% | 4.0% | 5.69 | 5.72 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 63 | 43 | 12 | 20.5% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 5.68 | 5.73 | -0.6 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 60 | 41 | 12 | 20.3% | 14.0% | 4.1% | 5.72 | 5.78 | -0.6 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 56 | 40 | 12 | 20.0% | 14.2% | 4.2% | 5.81 | 5.88 | -0.7 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 53 | 39 | 11 | 19.6% | 14.4% | 4.3% | 5.91 | 5.98 | -0.7 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | TEX | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 49 | 37 | 11 | 19.2% | 14.6% | 4.4% | 6.03 | 6.11 | -0.8 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | TEX | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 44 | 35 | 11 | 18.8% | 14.8% | 4.5% | 6.16 | 6.24 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 92 | 70 | 336 | 1460 | 300 | 196 | 61 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 4.2% | 4.96 | 5.35 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 42 | 200 | 870 | 179 | 117 | 36 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 4.2% | 4.96 | 5.35 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.88 | 20.4% | 14.9% | 4.1% | — | 5.74 | 20.5% | 6.4% | 226 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 83 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 81 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.38 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 79 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.89 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 234 | 79 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.39 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 109 | 79 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 78 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.12 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 237 | 78 |
| Linder Castro R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.68 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 4.5% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 279 | 77 |
| Kyle Dowdy R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.17 | 20.3% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.65 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 116 | -1.52 | 2.98 | 606 | 77 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2025 · 5.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.86 | 19.5% | 13.5% | 4.9% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 157 | 77 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.30 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 5.1% | .248 | 3.57 | 22.6% | 12.4% | 27 | -1.73 | 3.57 | 157 | 77 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 76 |
| Cristofer Ogando R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.92 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .236 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 179 | 76 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.10 | 25.3% | 16.2% | 3.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 142 | 76 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2029 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 76 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2024 · 6.77 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.77 | 17.6% | 18.3% | 5.1% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 106 | 76 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2025 · 5.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.60 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 140 | 76 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2023 · 5.29 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.29 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 316 | 75 |
| Jefry Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.10 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 3.5% | .287 | 4.60 | 19.8% | 6.8% | 64 | -0.50 | 3.29 | 578 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.