Ryan Garcia
P
Round Rock Express
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 180 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 69 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 157148vR 139
ERA6.19
FIP6.19
K%19.4%
BB%16.0%
K-BB%3.5%
ROS IP69
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 2.26 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 57 | 227 | 74 | 21 | 3 | 93% | 4.0 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 2.5% | 1.91 | 3.87 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 57 | 227 | 74 | 21 | 3 | 93% | 4.0 | 32.6% | 9.3% | 23.3% | 1.3% | 1.91 | 2.29 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 26 | 26 | 99 | 442 | 110 | 62 | 20 | 100% | 3.8 | 20.2% | 15.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.66 | 6.49 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 26 | 26 | 99 | 442 | 110 | 62 | 20 | 100% | 3.8 | 24.9% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 4.5% | 6.66 | 5.39 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 124 | 525 | 126 | 57 | 11 | 100% | 5.2 | 20.1% | 11.8% | 8.3% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 4.22 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 124 | 525 | 126 | 57 | 11 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 2.1% | 3.77 | 3.60 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 27 | 6 | 55 | 261 | 57 | 39 | 15 | 22% | 2.0 | 19.2% | 15.7% | 3.5% | 7.6% | 7.64 | 7.66 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 27 | 6 | 55 | 261 | 57 | 39 | 15 | 22% | 2.0 | 21.8% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.64 | 6.68 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | TEX | 12 | 12 | 69 | 293 | 57 | 47 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.4% | 16.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.19 | 6.19 | -1.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 15.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.08 | 6.14 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 10 | 10 | 62 | 263 | 51 | 40 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.5% | 15.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.08 | 6.18 | -1.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | TEX | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 15.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.08 | 6.14 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.5% | 15.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.08 | 6.18 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 59 | 248 | 48 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 15.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.08 | 5.78 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 130 | 38 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.6% | 15.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.08 | 5.78 | -0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 92 | 70 | 336 | 1460 | 300 | 196 | 64 | 76% | 3.6 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 4.96 | 5.46 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 42 | 200 | 870 | 178 | 117 | 38 | 76% | 3.6 | 20.5% | 13.4% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 4.96 | 5.46 | -0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Garcia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.19 | 19.4% | 16.0% | 4.2% | — | 6.16 | 19.6% | 4.1% | 128 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.21 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 316 | 73 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 72 |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 71 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 28 | SW | 6.03 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | 4.41 | 8.3% | -7.5% | 10 | -1.62 | 3.92 | 233 | 70 |
| Jefry Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.06 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.47 | 19.8% | 6.8% | 64 | -0.59 | 3.21 | 578 | 68 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 67 |
| Trent Sellers R 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.09 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 4.0% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 236 | 67 |
| Chris Ellis R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.31 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 4.4% | .274 | 6.16 | 12.5% | -2.7% | 64 | +0.85 | 3.85 | 780 | 65 |
| Colin Rea R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.72 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 4.9% | .344 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 198 | -1.62 | 2.67 | 1,073 | 65 |
| Mike Connolly R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 65 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2023 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 64 |
| Kevin Miranda R 2024 · 7.02 FIP | 26 | SP- | 7.02 | 14.1% | 10.0% | 7.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 153 | 64 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 6.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.39 | 17.2% | 12.5% | 5.8% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.96 | 352 | 64 |
| Kaleb Roper R 2024 · 5.54 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.54 | 17.3% | 11.8% | 4.4% | .398 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.54 | 146 | 64 |
| Jake Walters R 2025 · 5.97 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.97 | 15.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 261 | 64 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.26 | 11.3% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 412 | 63 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 5.90 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.90 | 17.6% | 14.5% | 4.5% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 187 | 62 |
| Chris Jensen R 2025 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.29 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 488 | 62 |
| Alex Blackford R 2024 · 5.71 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.71 | 14.9% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 229 | 61 |
| Davis Daniel R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.0% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .285 | 4.63 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 84 | -0.64 | 3.06 | 584 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 19.5% | 15.6% | 1.66 | 6.12 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |