Ryan Garcia — OGILVIE

Ryan Garcia P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA6.00

FIP6.00

K%18.6%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%3.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	100%	1.0	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	9.00	2.26	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	100%	1.0	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	9.00	2.10	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	57	227	74	21	3	93%	4.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.6%	2.3%	1.91	3.74	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	57	227	74	21	3	93%	4.0	32.6%	9.3%	23.3%	1.3%	1.91	2.29	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	26	26	99	442	110	62	20	100%	3.8	20.2%	15.4%	4.7%	5.6%	6.66	6.41	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	26	26	99	442	110	62	20	100%	3.8	20.2%	15.4%	4.7%	5.6%	6.66	6.41	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	26	26	99	442	110	62	20	100%	3.8	24.9%	14.0%	10.9%	4.5%	6.66	5.39	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	124	525	126	57	11	100%	5.2	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	2.4%	3.77	4.19	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	124	525	126	57	11	100%	5.2	19.6%	11.3%	8.3%	2.4%	3.77	4.19	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	124	525	126	57	11	100%	5.2	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	2.1%	3.77	3.60	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	27	6	55	261	57	39	15	22%	2.0	18.1%	13.4%	4.7%	6.9%	7.64	7.07	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	27	6	55	261	57	39	15	22%	2.0	18.1%	13.4%	4.7%	6.9%	7.64	7.07	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	27	6	55	261	57	39	15	22%	2.0	21.8%	14.9%	6.9%	5.7%	7.64	6.68	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	8	8	38	169	35	11	10	100%	4.7	16.8%	7.2%	9.6%	7.1%	6.45	6.49	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	8	8	38	169	35	11	10	100%	4.7	16.8%	7.2%	9.6%	7.1%	6.45	6.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	CIN	8	8	38	169	35	11	10	100%	4.7	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	5.9%	6.45	5.42	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	CIN	1	1	6	27	5	4	1	100%	6.3	18.6%	14.8%	3.9%	4.0%	6.00	6.00	-0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	44	196	40	15	11	—	—	20.4%	7.6%	12.8%	5.7%	6.39	6.42	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	66	280	53	40	11	100%	6.0	18.9%	14.5%	4.4%	4.1%	5.91	5.96	-0.8
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	10	10	62	263	50	38	11	100%	6.2	18.9%	14.4%	4.5%	4.2%	5.92	6.02	-0.8
2027	29	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	21	89	17	13	4	100%	5.2	18.9%	14.5%	4.4%	4.1%	5.91	5.96	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	5	5	32	135	26	19	6	100%	6.4	18.9%	14.4%	4.5%	4.2%	5.92	6.02	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	53	223	42	32	9	100%	5.9	18.9%	14.4%	4.5%	4.2%	5.92	5.61	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	159	121	34	100%	6.0	18.9%	14.4%	4.5%	4.2%	5.92	5.61	-1.6
Career	—	MLE		100	78	373	1629	323	200	72	78%	3.7	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	4.4%	5.11	5.42	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	42	200	873	173	107	39	78%	3.7	19.8%	12.3%	7.5%	4.4%	5.11	5.42	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.00	18.6%	14.8%	4.0%	—	5.99	18.9%	4.5%	128	-0.01	—	—	—
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	73
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	71
Riley Thompson R 2023 · 5.81 FIP	27	SP-	5.81	17.8%	12.9%	4.7%	.284	4.53	17.0%	8.1%	107	-1.28	4.53	340	71
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.84	19.6%	8.0%	114	-2.22	3.68	136	70
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	70
Chris Ellis R 2021 · 5.41 FIP	28	SP	5.41	19.6%	11.5%	4.6%	.274	6.19	11.8%	-1.3%	64	+0.78	3.84	780	69
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	68
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	68
Matthew Shepherd R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	13.7%	9.5%	3.3%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	4.98	116	66
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	66
Colin Rea R 2018 · 5.61 FIP	28	SP	5.61	17.6%	11.3%	4.7%	.344	4.14	17.7%	9.8%	198	-1.47	2.57	1,112	66
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	66
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	66
Bradin Hagens R 2018 · 4.92 FIP	29	SP-	4.92	14.9%	9.9%	3.3%	.341	5.46	13.2%	0.6%	66	+0.54	3.79	254	65
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	65
Alex Blackford R 2017 · 5.59 FIP	26	SP	5.59	14.9%	12.5%	4.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	229	65
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	65
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	65
Jefry Rodriguez R 2021 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.4%	13.5%	3.4%	.287	4.58	19.8%	6.8%	64	-0.45	3.30	578	65
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	18.8%	14.6%	1.59	5.94
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74