Ryan Garcia

P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	24	24	124	3.77	3.60	24.0%	10.9%	—	K 19.9% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.17
2025	27	AAATEX	27	6	55	7.64	6.68	21.8%	14.9%	—	K 18.8% · BB 13.4% · FIP 7.02
2026	28	AACIN	8	8	38	6.45	5.57	20.7%	6.5%	—	K 16.8% · BB 7.2% · FIP 6.49
2027PROJ	29	MLBCIN	1	1	1	5.81	5.81	18.1%	12.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBCIN	2	2	15	5.76	5.83	18.3%	12.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBCIN	3	3	20	5.81	5.92	18.2%	12.5%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control30Command35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsZack Segovia (age 32) · Travis Smith (age 29) · Reinier Roibal (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.81

FIP5.81

K%18.1%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	100%	1.0	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	9.00	2.26	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	100%	1.0	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	9.00	2.10	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	57	227	74	21	3	93%	4.0	23.2%	10.7%	12.6%	2.3%	1.91	3.74	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	57	227	74	21	3	93%	4.0	32.6%	9.3%	23.3%	1.3%	1.91	2.29	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	26	26	99	442	110	62	20	100%	3.8	20.2%	15.4%	4.7%	5.6%	6.66	6.41	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	26	26	99	442	110	62	20	100%	3.8	24.9%	14.0%	10.9%	4.5%	6.66	5.39	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	124	525	126	57	11	100%	5.2	19.9%	11.3%	8.6%	2.4%	3.77	4.17	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	124	525	126	57	11	100%	5.2	19.9%	11.3%	8.6%	2.4%	3.77	4.17	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	124	525	126	57	11	100%	5.2	24.0%	10.9%	13.1%	2.1%	3.77	3.60	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	27	6	55	261	57	39	15	22%	2.0	18.8%	13.4%	5.3%	6.9%	7.64	7.02	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	27	6	55	261	57	39	15	22%	2.0	18.8%	13.4%	5.3%	6.9%	7.64	7.02	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	27	6	55	261	57	39	15	22%	2.0	21.8%	14.9%	6.9%	5.7%	7.64	6.68	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	8	8	38	169	35	11	10	100%	4.7	16.8%	7.2%	9.6%	7.1%	6.45	6.49	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	8	8	38	169	35	11	10	100%	4.7	16.8%	7.2%	9.6%	7.1%	6.45	6.49	—
2026	28	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	8	8	38	169	35	11	10	100%	4.7	20.7%	6.5%	14.2%	5.9%	6.45	5.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	CIN	1	1	1	4	1	1	0	100%	1.0	18.1%	12.4%	5.7%	4.2%	5.81	5.81	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	47	198	36	25	8	100%	5.8	18.3%	12.4%	5.9%	4.2%	5.76	5.83	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	39	166	30	21	7	100%	5.6	18.2%	12.5%	5.7%	4.4%	5.81	5.92	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	CIN	2	2	15	63	12	8	3	100%	7.5	18.3%	12.4%	5.9%	4.2%	5.76	5.83	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	20	84	15	11	4	100%	6.7	18.2%	12.5%	5.7%	4.4%	5.81	5.92	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	35	147	27	18	6	100%	5.8	18.3%	12.5%	5.8%	4.3%	5.79	5.50	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	155	103	34	100%	6.0	18.3%	12.5%	5.8%	4.3%	5.79	5.50	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		100	78	373	1629	326	200	72	78%	3.7	20.0%	12.3%	7.7%	4.4%	5.11	5.41	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	42	200	873	175	107	39	78%	3.7	20.0%	12.3%	7.7%	4.4%	5.11	5.41	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 38 IPFIP 5.42 → 6.49 (+1.06)K% 20.7% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.71%	—	×0.810	16.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.51%	—	×1.100	7.16%
HR / BF /BF	5.92%	÷1.000	×1.200	7.10%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.42 → 6.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARound Rock Express · 55 IPFIP 6.30 → 7.02 (+0.71)K% 21.8% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.84%	—	×0.860	18.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.94%	—	×0.900	13.45%
HR / BF /BF	5.75%	÷0.913	×1.100	6.92%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 6.30 → 7.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 82 IPFIP 3.66 → 4.26 (+0.60)K% 21.9% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.90%	—	×0.810	17.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.53%	—	×1.100	12.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.73%	÷1.080	×1.200	1.92%

Result: FIP 3.66 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 42 IPFIP 3.48 → 3.98 (+0.50)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.09%	—	×0.860	24.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.55%	—	×0.900	8.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.81%	÷0.928	×1.100	3.33%

Result: FIP 3.48 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 99 IPFIP 5.26 → 6.41 (+1.15)K% 24.9% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.89%	—	×0.810	20.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.03%	—	×1.100	15.43%
HR / BF /BF	4.52%	÷0.974	×1.200	5.57%

Result: FIP 5.26 → 6.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ADown East Wood Ducks · 47 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.74 (+1.27)K% 31.4% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.38%	—	×0.740	23.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.04%	—	×1.180	10.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷0.912	×1.300	2.27%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hickory Crawdads · 10 IPFIP 1.15 → 2.09 (+0.94)K% 38.5% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.46%	—	×0.770	29.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.26%	—	×1.150	11.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.123	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 1.15 → 2.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Garcia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.81	18.1%	12.4%	4.2%	—	5.87	18.3%	5.8%	86	+0.06	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	78
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	78
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	76
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	75
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	71
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	70
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	69
Mark Appel R 2021 · 5.90 FIP	30	SP-	5.90	15.6%	15.6%	3.9%	.260	4.22	18.5%	8.1%	40	-1.68	4.22	363	68
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	68
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	67
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	67
Blair Henley R 2024 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP	5.41	17.2%	12.4%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	187	67
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	66
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	66
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	66
Erik Hiljus R 2002 · 6.07 FIP	29	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	112	65
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	65
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	65
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	65
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	18.2%	12.4%	1.64	5.79
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*