Will Sanders P Iowa Cubs
Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.75
FIP4.75
K%19.2%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%9.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 119 IP
K: -0.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-0KBB: -1.0 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-1BBCONTACT: -4.5 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-5CONTACTSTAM: +16.1 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+16STAMTotal WAR: +1.07 (119 IP)+1.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.50.50.70.60.4+$8M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP40
STUF4545
CTRL55
CMD3040
K†4555
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSPre-Arb$0.3M+0.0$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1M
2029Arb-1$2M+0.7$2M+$0.8M
2030Arb-2$3M+0.6$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-3$7M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $4M $9M +$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202422MIX2 levels242397439109441396%4.019.3%11.8%7.5%4.0%4.665.17
202422MIX2 levels242397439109441396%4.024.8%10.0%14.8%3.0%4.663.96
202523MIX2 levels2623123531123411588%4.719.8%8.2%11.6%2.6%5.043.89
202523MIX2 levels2623123531123411588%4.723.2%7.7%15.4%2.8%5.043.68
▸ 2026 Season
202624AAAIowa Cubs1412552406122786%3.924.1%9.0%15.1%4.1%4.944.48+0.0
ROS24MLBCHC12126527452278100%5.419.2%9.7%9.4%3.0%4.754.75-0.1
ROS24MLBCHC11625521100%6.019.2%9.7%9.4%3.0%4.774.77-0.0
2026 TOT24MLBCHC119514113491522.1%9.5%12.6%3.0%4.844.63+1.1
2026 FULL24MLBCHC62753119.2%9.7%9.4%3.0%4.774.39+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBCHC141480339683210100%5.720.0%9.6%10.4%3.0%4.674.65+0.3
202826MLBCHC131380339693210100%6.220.3%9.4%10.9%3.0%4.614.60+0.4
202927MLBCHC131379334752910100%6.122.4%8.6%13.8%3.0%4.444.35+0.6
203028MLBCHC131377323722810100%5.922.3%8.7%13.6%3.1%4.434.43+0.4
202725MLBCHC773916533165100%5.620.0%9.6%10.4%3.0%4.694.67-0.1
202826MLBCHC995623648227100%6.220.3%9.4%10.9%3.0%4.634.62-0.0
202927MLBCHC10106326660238100%6.322.4%8.6%13.8%3.1%4.464.37+0.2
203028MLBCHC11116527461249100%5.922.3%8.7%13.6%3.2%4.454.45+0.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career39392299652068730100%5.921.3%9.0%12.3%3.1%4.554.13+3.4
/ 200 IP34342008441807626100%5.921.3%9.0%12.3%3.1%4.554.13+3.0
Career645827512102481174191%4.320.5%9.7%10.8%3.4%4.884.47+3.0
/ 200 IP4742200881181853091%4.320.5%9.7%10.8%3.4%4.884.47+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Will Sanders (OGILVIE) 4.75 19.2%9.7%3.0% 4.53 20.9%11.7%239 -0.22
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 24 SP 4.24 18.9%10.3%2.6%.329 4.33 21.3%10.9%132 +0.09 2.63 213 93
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP 24 SP- 3.87 20.4%9.6%2.3%.300 4.37 19.6%9.8%143 +0.50 3.87 247 88
Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.88 FIP 23 SP 4.88 16.5%9.4%3.6%.288 5.29 21.7%7.0%57 +0.41 4.52 340 87
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP 23 SP- 4.37 19.5%10.5%2.9%.302 4.38 23.2%14.7%121 +0.01 3.42 237 86
Sam Highfill R 2026 · 4.68 FIP 24 SP 4.68 15.0%8.6%3.2%.305 5.95 18.2%7.9%55 +1.27 4.68 161 85
Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.06 FIP 25 SP 4.06 17.1%10.8%1.9%.300 4.86 11.6%-2.4%41 +0.80 4.06 120 85
David Griffin R 2027 · 4.52 FIP 25 SP 4.52 19.2%11.9%2.8%.279 5.47 15.6%5.5%168 +0.95 4.52 239 84
Jarred Cosart R 2027 · 5.09 FIP 25 SP 5.09 15.2%10.8%3.5%.274 5.06 13.1%-0.5%132 -0.03 4.10 218 83
Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP 24 SP- 4.38 17.0%6.5%3.4%.293 4.16 19.1%10.5%315 -0.22 3.50 472 83
Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.43 FIP 24 SP 4.43 18.0%10.5%2.8%.271 5.94 20.6%7.6%119 +1.51 4.43 358 83
Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP 24 SP 4.65 21.1%10.2%3.7%.288 4.28 18.7%10.9%389 -0.37 3.21 630 83
Ryan Bergert R 2026 · 4.00 FIP 24 SP 4.00 16.9%8.7%2.2%.317 4.33 21.6%11.4%121 +0.33 3.61 428 83
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.22 FIP 24 SP- 5.22 17.5%12.2%3.7%.293 4.57 22.2%10.9%274 -0.65 4.00 512 83
Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP 24 SP- 3.93 20.4%8.6%2.7%.287 4.58 19.4%11.0%140 +0.65 3.90 202 82
Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP 24 SP- 4.53 19.1%7.0%3.9%.278 5.41 19.6%8.0%66 +0.88 3.96 260 82
Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP 24 SP- 4.20 23.0%8.8%3.5%.359 4.87 17.6%2.0%22 +0.67 4.20 118 82
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP 24 SP- 4.64 20.2%8.6%3.9%.261 4.28 21.4%11.1%173 -0.36 3.41 368 82
Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.66 FIP 24 SP 4.66 18.9%9.0%3.7%.298 5.01 17.7%8.5%323 +0.35 4.20 416 82
Trent Palmer R 2025 · 4.85 FIP 23 SP 4.85 22.0%10.4%4.2%.284 4.83 12.8%-9.4%22 -0.02 3.51 140 82
Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.55 FIP 25 SP- 4.55 16.7%6.5%3.7%.287 3.95 15.0%7.6%193 -0.60 3.53 289 81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION57920.8%9.2%1.174.58
Adam Conley ('19)58319.7%9.5%1.174.82
Bud Norris ('18)47922.7%9.2%1.285.07
Travis Wood ('17)38520.8%9.8%1.344.72
Jorge De La Rosa ('18)49819.5%10.3%1.224.52
Shane Greene ('21)75621.4%8.5%1.164.67
Joe Biagini ('19)48119.1%7.8%1.284.86