Will Sanders
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.8
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.3 · 2028
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%11.6%
IP113
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 24 | 23 | 97 | 439 | 109 | 44 | 13 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.90 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 26 | 23 | 123 | 531 | 123 | 41 | 15 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 5.04 | 4.01 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 4 | 3 | 15 | 76 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 23.2% | 12.4% | 5.8% | 6.46 | 5.90 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 99 | 44 | 15 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.58 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 128 | 554 | 119 | 53 | 19 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.74 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 23 | 23 | 126 | 534 | 113 | 47 | 16 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.48 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 121 | 49 | 17 | 21.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 25 | 136 | 576 | 124 | 50 | 18 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +1.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 25 | 136 | 576 | 124 | 50 | 18 | 21.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 24 | 24 | 133 | 563 | 120 | 49 | 18 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 24 | 24 | 129 | 546 | 116 | 48 | 17 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 23 | 23 | 125 | 527 | 110 | 47 | 17 | 20.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.60 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 22 | 120 | 506 | 105 | 46 | 17 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 98 | 45 | 17 | 20.4% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 92 | 44 | 16 | 20.0% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 102 | 433 | 85 | 42 | 16 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 5.06 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 78 | 40 | 15 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 5.11 | 5.19 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 49 | 235 | 1046 | 208 | 105 | 35 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.97 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 42 | 200 | 889 | 177 | 89 | 30 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.97 | 4.52 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Sanders (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.45 | 21.4% | 12.7% | 396 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 94 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 92 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 92 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 91 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 90 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 90 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.23 | 4.15 | 212 | 90 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 90 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.98 | 23.2% | 13.0% | 155 | -1.15 | 2.65 | 315 | 89 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .288 | 4.37 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 313 | +0.06 | 2.50 | 554 | 89 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 89 |
| Austin Love R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.30 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .358 | 3.57 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 56 | -0.73 | 3.57 | 182 | 89 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 88 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .337 | 5.97 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +1.89 | 4.08 | 418 | 88 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 88 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 87 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 87 |
| Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.18 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.95 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 127 | -0.23 | 3.95 | 373 | 87 |
| Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .288 | 5.32 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.66 | 4.63 | 340 | 87 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.3 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.3 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $2M | +1.2 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.1 | $11M | +$7M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $12M | $60M | +$49M | ||