Will Sanders — OGILVIE

Will Sanders P Iowa Cubs

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%18.5%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4545

CTRL—55

CMD3040

K†4545

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.8M		$3M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	97	439	109	44	13	96%	4.0	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.6%	4.66	4.95	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	97	439	109	44	13	96%	4.0	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.6%	4.66	4.95	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	97	439	109	44	13	96%	4.0	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	3.0%	4.66	3.96	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	123	531	123	41	15	88%	4.7	19.1%	7.3%	11.8%	2.8%	5.04	3.96	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	123	531	123	41	15	88%	4.7	19.1%	7.3%	11.8%	2.8%	5.04	3.96	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	123	531	123	41	15	88%	4.7	23.2%	7.7%	15.4%	2.8%	5.04	3.68	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	16	14	61	269	64	26	8	88%	3.8	20.8%	8.4%	12.5%	4.1%	5.58	4.65	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	16	14	61	269	64	26	8	88%	3.8	20.8%	8.4%	12.5%	4.1%	5.58	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	CHC	2	2	4	22	5	2	0	100%	1.9	22.7%	9.1%	13.6%	0.0%	19.64	2.33	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	CHC	2	2	8	32	5	4	0	100%	3.9	15.6%	12.5%	3.1%	0.0%	1.17	3.36	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	CHC	12	10	50	215	54	20	8	83%	4.2	25.1%	9.3%	15.8%	3.7%	5.22	4.20	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	7	28	5	3	1	100%	6.7	18.5%	9.2%	9.3%	3.1%	4.78	4.78	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	68	297	69	29	9	—	—	23.3%	9.6%	13.7%	3.0%	5.50	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	112	475	91	42	15	100%	5.9	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	3.1%	4.69	4.67	+0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	112	475	93	42	15	100%	5.9	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	3.1%	4.63	4.62	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	111	467	92	41	15	100%	6.2	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	3.1%	4.63	4.64	+0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	107	453	89	40	15	100%	6.0	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	3.2%	4.67	4.71	+0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	103	433	84	40	15	100%	6.0	19.4%	9.1%	10.3%	3.4%	4.77	4.84	+0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	96	407	78	38	14	100%	6.0	19.1%	9.4%	9.6%	3.6%	4.92	5.02	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	54	228	44	20	7	100%	6.0	19.2%	8.9%	10.3%	3.0%	4.63	4.61	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	78	329	65	29	10	100%	6.0	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	3.0%	4.57	4.56	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	88	372	73	33	11	100%	5.9	19.7%	8.8%	10.9%	3.0%	4.57	4.58	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	92	388	76	35	12	100%	6.1	19.7%	8.9%	10.8%	3.1%	4.60	4.64	+0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	91	384	75	35	12	100%	6.1	19.4%	9.1%	10.3%	3.2%	4.70	4.77	+0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	14	14	87	367	70	35	13	100%	6.2	19.1%	9.4%	9.6%	3.4%	4.85	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		82	82	490	2067	402	186	65	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.1%	4.66	4.31	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	76	27	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.1%	4.66	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		66	60	281	1239	242	113	42	91%	4.3	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	3.4%	5.02	4.46	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	43	200	881	172	80	30	91%	4.3	19.5%	9.1%	10.4%	3.4%	5.02	4.46	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Sanders (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	18.5%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.64	19.5%	10.7%	336	-0.14	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	92
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.53	340	89
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	88
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	85
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	85
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	85
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	85
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	85
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	84
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	84
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	84
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	84
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	84
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	83
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	83
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	83
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	83
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	82
Edison Frias R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP-	4.90	18.1%	7.5%	4.3%	.318	4.19	13.7%	3.5%	166	-0.71	4.14	279	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	103	19.3%	9.0%	1.24	4.72
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38