Will Sanders P Iowa Cubs
+0.8 WAR
Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2028
ERA4.58
FIP4.58
xFIP
SIERA
K%20.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%11.6%
IP113
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2028
K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR K%BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202422AATennessee Smokies242397439109441319.3%11.8%3.5%4.664.90+0.4
202523AAAIowa Cubs2623123531123411519.8%8.2%2.8%5.044.01+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
202624AAAIowa Cubs431576209423.2%12.4%5.8%6.465.90-0.2
ROS24MLBCHC212111347899441520.7%9.1%3.1%4.584.58+0.9
2026 Total24MLBCHC128554119531921.5%9.5%3.4%4.804.74+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202725MLBCHC2323126534113471621.2%8.8%3.1%4.514.48+1.2
202826MLBCHC2424134564121491721.5%8.7%3.1%4.464.44+1.3
202927MLBCHC2525136576124501821.6%8.6%3.1%4.444.44+1.3
203028MLBCHC2525136576124501821.5%8.7%3.1%4.454.46+1.3
203129MLBCHC2424133563120491821.4%8.7%3.1%4.484.50+1.2
203230MLBCHC2424129546116481721.2%8.8%3.2%4.534.57+1.1
203331MLBCHC2323125527110471720.9%9.0%3.3%4.604.64+0.9
203432MLBCHC2222120506105461720.7%9.1%3.3%4.684.73+0.8
203533MLBCHC212111448398451720.4%9.3%3.4%4.774.83+0.6
203634MLBCHC202010945992441620.0%9.5%3.5%4.874.94+0.4
203735MLBCHC191910243385421619.6%9.7%3.6%4.985.06+0.3
203836MLBCHC17179640478401519.2%10.0%3.8%5.115.19+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career544923510462081053519.9%10.0%3.3%4.974.52+2.1
/ 200 IP4642200889177893019.9%10.0%3.3%4.974.52+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Will Sanders (OGILVIE) 4.58 20.7%9.1%3.1% 4.45 21.4%12.7%396 -0.13
Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP 24 SP- 3.89 20.4%9.6%2.4%.300 4.44 18.2%7.0%78 +0.55 3.89 183 94
R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP 23 SP- 4.31 21.5%9.5%3.3%.295 4.31 129 92
Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP 24 SP- 4.61 18.9%9.0%3.6%.298 4.96 17.7%8.5%323 +0.35 4.41 416 92
Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP 24 SP- 4.02 22.6%11.4%2.5%.291 5.45 17.7%4.3%141 +1.43 4.02 262 91
Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP 24 SP- 4.63 22.6%10.3%3.9%.279 4.35 22.4%12.5%132 -0.28 4.35 254 90
Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP 24 SP- 4.30 17.8%9.3%2.8%.300 3.77 23.5%17.1%18 -0.53 3.77 107 90
Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.15 FIP 23 SP- 4.15 19.5%10.5%2.5%.302 4.38 23.2%14.7%121 +0.23 4.15 212 90
Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP 24 SP- 4.52 18.0%10.5%2.9%.271 5.93 20.6%7.6%119 +1.41 4.52 358 90
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 5.13 FIP 24 SP- 5.13 18.8%10.2%4.2%.327 3.98 23.2%13.0%155 -1.15 2.65 315 89
Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.31 FIP 24 SP- 4.31 21.1%10.2%3.1%.288 4.37 17.8%9.7%313 +0.06 2.50 554 89
Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP 22 SP- 3.95 19.7%9.0%2.5%.266 3.95 110 89
Austin Love R 2025 · 4.30 FIP 23 SP- 4.30 20.6%10.6%2.9%.358 3.57 22.1%9.7%56 -0.73 3.57 182 89
Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP 24 SP- 4.49 20.7%8.6%3.7%.264 3.71 14.7%5.2%69 -0.78 3.71 155 88
Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP 24 SP- 4.08 19.8%8.8%2.8%.337 5.97 17.2%8.4%186 +1.89 4.08 418 88
Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP 24 SP- 4.19 23.3%11.4%3.0%.287 4.02 24.5%15.7%313 -0.17 3.31 571 88
Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.30 FIP 24 SP- 4.30 18.9%10.3%2.7%.329 3.95 21.4%10.8%118 -0.35 2.58 199 87
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP 25 SP- 3.70 20.3%8.7%2.2%.309 3.24 21.0%14.2%101 -0.46 1.87 210 87
Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.18 FIP 24 SP- 4.18 18.7%11.6%2.2%.288 3.95 17.0%8.9%127 -0.23 3.95 373 87
Riley Thompson R 2025 · 4.66 FIP 23 SP- 4.66 16.5%9.4%3.2%.288 5.32 21.7%7.0%57 +0.66 4.63 340 87
Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP 23 SP- 3.86 18.5%7.3%2.5%.250 3.86 107 87

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2028
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2033
First FA Year   2034
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+1.3$11M+$10M
2029Arb-1$0.8M+1.3$11M+$11M
2030Arb-2$0.9M+1.3$12M+$11M
2031Arb-3$2M+1.2$11M+$9M
2032Ext / FA-deal$3M+1.1$11M+$7M
2033Ext / FA-deal$4M+0.9$4M+$0.5M
Totals $12M $60M +$49M