Will Sanders

P Iowa Cubs

Age 25 RHP 6'6" / 230 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#495ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	24	23	97	4.66	3.96	24.8%	10.0%	—	K 19.3% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.95
2025	23	MIX2 levels	26	23	123	5.04	3.68	23.2%	7.7%	—	K 19.5% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.92
2026	24	MIX3 levels	16	14	61	5.58	3.98	23.8%	9.7%	—	K 21.6% · BB 8.4% · FIP 4.58
2027PROJ	25	MLBCHC	2	2	14	4.65	4.65	20.9%	8.9%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	26	MLBCHC	8	8	45	4.51	4.49	21.5%	8.8%	0.4
2029PROJ53% MLB	27	MLBCHC	10	10	58	4.50	4.51	21.5%	8.8%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$0.7M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 6.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Rorik Maltrud (age 24) · Brian Edgington (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

K%20.9%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP143

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 143 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$7M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	97	439	109	44	13	96%	4.0	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.6%	4.66	4.95	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	97	439	109	44	13	96%	4.0	19.3%	11.8%	7.5%	3.6%	4.66	4.95	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	97	439	109	44	13	96%	4.0	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	3.0%	4.66	3.96	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	123	531	123	41	15	88%	4.7	19.5%	7.3%	12.3%	2.8%	5.04	3.92	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	23	123	531	123	41	15	88%	4.7	19.5%	7.3%	12.3%	2.8%	5.04	3.92	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	23	123	531	123	41	15	88%	4.7	23.2%	7.7%	15.4%	2.8%	5.04	3.68	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	14	61	269	64	26	8	88%	3.8	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	4.1%	5.58	4.58	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	14	61	269	64	26	8	88%	3.8	21.6%	8.4%	13.2%	4.1%	5.58	4.58	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	14	61	269	64	26	8	88%	3.8	23.8%	9.7%	14.1%	3.0%	5.58	3.98	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CHC	2	2	14	59	12	5	2	100%	7.0	20.9%	8.9%	12.0%	3.3%	4.65	4.65	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	121	510	109	45	17	100%	6.0	21.5%	8.8%	12.7%	3.3%	4.58	4.56	+1.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	18	18	110	463	100	41	15	100%	6.1	21.5%	8.8%	12.7%	3.3%	4.57	4.58	+1.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	102	432	93	38	15	100%	6.0	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.4%	4.61	4.65	+0.9
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	95	400	85	36	14	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	3.5%	4.70	4.77	+0.7
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	86	362	75	34	13	100%	6.1	20.8%	9.4%	11.5%	3.7%	4.85	4.95	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	CHC	13	13	76	323	66	31	13	100%	5.9	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	3.9%	5.03	5.15	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	45	190	41	17	6	100%	5.6	21.5%	8.8%	12.7%	3.1%	4.51	4.49	+0.4
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	58	245	53	21	8	100%	5.8	21.5%	8.8%	12.7%	3.2%	4.50	4.51	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	66	279	60	25	9	100%	6.0	21.4%	8.9%	12.5%	3.2%	4.54	4.58	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	68	287	61	26	10	100%	6.2	21.2%	9.1%	12.1%	3.4%	4.63	4.70	+0.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	66	279	58	26	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.4%	11.5%	3.6%	4.77	4.87	+0.3
2033	31	MLB CTX	CHC	10	10	62	262	54	25	10	100%	6.2	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	3.8%	4.95	5.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	61	364	1536	324	140	52	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.4%	4.66	4.33	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	178	77	29	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	3.4%	4.66	4.33	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		66	60	281	1239	247	113	42	91%	4.3	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	3.4%	5.02	4.43	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	43	200	881	175	80	30	91%	4.3	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	3.4%	5.02	4.43	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 50 IPFIP 4.20 → 4.58 (+0.38)K% 25.1% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.12%	—	×0.860	21.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×0.900	8.37%
HR / BF /BF	3.72%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.09%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.20 → 4.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+South Bend Cubs · 8 IPFIP 3.36 → 3.90 (+0.54)K% 15.6% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.62%	—	×0.770	12.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.150	14.37%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.36 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Cubs · 4 IPFIP 2.33 → 3.23 (+0.90)K% 22.7% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.680	15.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.250	11.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 79 IPFIP 4.56 → 4.66 (+0.10)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.19%	—	×0.860	19.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.27%	—	×0.900	8.34%
HR / BF /BF	3.93%	÷1.125	×1.100	3.84%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 44 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.43 (+0.56)K% 25.1% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.14%	—	×0.810	20.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.57%	—	×1.100	5.03%
HR / BF /BF	0.57%	÷0.911	×1.200	0.75%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 93 IPFIP 3.73 → 4.95 (+1.22)K% 25.1% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.12%	—	×0.770	19.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.29%	—	×1.150	11.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.909	×1.250	3.62%

Result: FIP 3.73 → 4.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 4 IPFIP 7.32 → 9.81 (+2.49)K% 19.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.810	15.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.100	5.24%
HR / BF /BF	9.52%	÷0.854	×1.200	13.39%

Result: FIP 7.32 → 9.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Sanders (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.59	21.5%	12.7%	333	-0.06	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	85
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	83
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	82
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	82
Mason Black R 2024 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	19.7%	9.3%	3.9%	.304	5.29	17.0%	7.1%	213	+0.56	3.95	569	82
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	81
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	81
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	81
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	81
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	81
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	80
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	80
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	80
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	80
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	80
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	80
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	79
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	79
Will Warren R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	24.5%	7.6%	4.1%	.344	3.77	23.7%	15.2%	318	-0.49	3.72	709	79
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	105	21.1%	9.0%	1.33	4.69
Jackie Brown ('70-'77, 1 WAR*)	4.5	128	19.7%*	8.9%*	1.21*	4.93*
Rubby De La Rosa ('17)	2.1	105	19.6%	8.6%	1.32	4.49
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Zack Godley ('21)	2.8	95	22.1%	9.6%	1.16	4.92
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Ron Schueler ('72-'79, 3 WAR*)	4.6	130	21.0%*	9.8%*	1.41*	4.51*