Isaac Coffey — OGILVIE

Isaac Coffey P Worcester Red Sox

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 114

ERA5.13

FIP5.13

K%20.7%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP41

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	8	0	2	0	0%	0.8	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	10.80	6.27	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	2	0	2	8	0	2	0	0%	0.8	0.0%	25.0%	-25.0%	0.0%	10.80	6.70	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	118	492	155	33	22	96%	5.1	24.8%	7.5%	17.4%	5.6%	3.37	5.00	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	118	492	155	33	22	96%	5.1	24.8%	7.5%	17.4%	5.6%	3.37	5.00	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	118	492	155	33	22	96%	5.1	31.5%	6.7%	24.8%	4.5%	3.37	3.74	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	24	21	114	494	148	51	9	88%	4.7	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	2.1%	3.17	3.67	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	24	21	114	494	148	51	9	88%	4.7	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	2.1%	3.17	3.67	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	24	21	114	494	148	51	9	88%	4.7	30.0%	10.3%	19.6%	1.8%	3.17	2.87	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	47	221	48	31	10	71%	2.8	16.2%	13.1%	3.0%	6.0%	5.51	6.72	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	12	47	221	48	31	10	71%	2.8	16.2%	13.1%	3.0%	6.0%	5.51	6.72	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	12	47	221	48	31	10	71%	2.8	21.7%	14.0%	7.7%	4.5%	5.51	5.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	8	6	24	108	25	9	3	75%	3.0	21.6%	8.2%	13.4%	2.9%	4.18	3.88	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	8	6	24	108	25	9	3	75%	3.0	21.6%	8.2%	13.4%	2.9%	4.18	3.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	BOS	3	1	6	31	5	2	1	33%	2.0	16.1%	6.5%	9.7%	3.2%	4.50	4.33	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	BOS	5	5	18	77	20	7	2	100%	3.5	26.0%	9.1%	16.9%	2.6%	4.08	3.48	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BOS	17	17	101	426	89	46	15	100%	5.9	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	3.6%	5.06	5.08	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	98	413	86	45	15	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.8%	9.9%	3.6%	5.06	5.10	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	93	394	81	43	15	100%	5.8	20.6%	10.9%	9.7%	3.8%	5.12	5.19	-0.3
2030	30	MLB MLE	BOS	15	15	88	371	75	41	15	100%	5.9	20.3%	11.1%	9.2%	3.9%	5.24	5.34	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	43	182	38	20	7	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.9%	9.9%	3.6%	5.06	5.08	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	61	258	53	28	9	100%	6.1	20.8%	10.8%	9.9%	3.6%	5.06	5.10	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	68	287	59	31	11	100%	6.2	20.6%	10.9%	9.7%	3.8%	5.12	5.19	-0.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	70	296	60	33	12	100%	5.8	20.3%	11.1%	9.2%	3.9%	5.24	5.34	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		40	40	242	1022	210	112	38	100%	6.1	20.6%	10.9%	9.6%	3.8%	5.13	4.81	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	173	93	31	100%	6.0	20.6%	10.9%	9.6%	3.8%	5.13	4.81	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		74	61	304	1323	301	133	54	82%	4.1	22.8%	10.0%	12.7%	4.1%	3.73	4.71	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	40	200	870	198	87	36	82%	4.1	22.8%	10.0%	12.7%	4.1%	3.73	4.71	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaac Coffey (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.13	20.7%	11.2%	3.6%	—	5.12	20.7%	9.8%	292	-0.01	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	81
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	79
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	78
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	78
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	77
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	76
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	75
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	75
Cody Sedlock R 2021 · 5.05 FIP	26	SP-	5.05	19.9%	10.9%	4.1%	.301	4.21	20.1%	7.1%	80	-0.84	4.21	378	75
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	74
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	74
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	73
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	73
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	73
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	72
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	72
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	280	72
Chance Kirby R 2021 · 5.83 FIP	26	SP-	5.83	15.1%	10.0%	5.0%	.242	4.59	18.5%	11.2%	138	-1.24	4.14	325	72
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	72
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	84	20.6%	11.0%	1.44	5.12
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77