Burch Smith
P
Detroit Tigers
Age 36
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
MLB
ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION143 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.00
FIP4.03
xFIP4.02
SIERA3.79
K%22.2%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%13.6%
IP144
K†5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB+4.3 (50%)
SL (8%)
CU (18%)
CT-4.1 (21%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 13 | 12 | 56 | 227 | 56 | 24 | 3 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | 2.40 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 38 | 6 | 78 | 358 | 77 | 38 | 15 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 6.92 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 35 | 17 | 114 | 490 | 123 | 58 | 10 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | 3.17 | 3.94 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 6 | 0 | 12 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 29.5% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.25 | 2.14 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 35 | 0 | 49 | 217 | 35 | 15 | 8 | 14.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.92 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 52 | 0 | 58 | 248 | 48 | 12 | 6 | 19.1% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 4.78 | 3.39 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 35 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 20 | 0 | 21 | 102 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 5.4% | 6.75 | 5.73 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 21 | 1 | 27 | 109 | 36 | 7 | 3 | 27.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 2.67 | 3.50 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | DET | 21 | 21 | 115 | 485 | 108 | 42 | 15 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.00 | 4.03 | +1.8 |
| 2026 Total | 36 | MLB | DET | — | — | 142 | 594 | 144 | 49 | 18 | 24.2% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 3.75 | 3.93 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | DET | 23 | 23 | 125 | 529 | 109 | 49 | 19 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.68 | 4.85 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 220 | 36 | 415 | 1795 | 378 | 176 | 52 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.14 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 17 | 200 | 864 | 182 | 85 | 25 | 21.1% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.14 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Burch Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.85 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 125 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Yasutomo Kubo R 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.67 | 20.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 152 | 80 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 79 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.31 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 485 | 78 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 76 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.22 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 5.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 348 | 72 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 71 |
| Kameron Loe R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.47 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 201 | 70 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 67 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.11 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 2.6% | .298 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 352 | 65 |
| Aaron Harang R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 65 |
| Brad Penny R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 37 | SP | 3.52 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 1.3% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 135 | 65 |
| John Lackey R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.42 | 19.5% | 5.4% | 2.4% | .291 | 4.21 | 22.3% | 15.4% | 359 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 577 | 64 |
| Angel Castro R 2024 · 3.48 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.48 | 14.5% | 7.4% | 1.2% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.48 | 292 | 64 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.81 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 3.8% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 720 | 58 |
| Dan Haren R 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.40 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 187 | 56 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 53 |
| Walter Silva R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 51 |
| Jake Peavy R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 50 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2024 · 3.49 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.49 | 18.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 283 | 50 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 50 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.