Burch Smith
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.1
WAR
Age 36
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.62
FIP4.41
xFIP4.02
SIERA3.79
K%21.8%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%13.4%
IP24
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p2919.1%
xwOBA vs
p350.329
FB+4.3 (50%)
SL (8%)
CU (18%)
CT-4.1 (21%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 13 | 12 | 56 | 227 | 56 | 24 | 3 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | 2.40 | 3.92 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 38 | 6 | 78 | 358 | 77 | 38 | 15 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 4.6% | 6.92 | 5.16 | -0.0 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 35 | 17 | 114 | 490 | 123 | 58 | 10 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | 3.17 | 3.97 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 6 | 0 | 12 | 44 | 13 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.25 | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 35 | 0 | 49 | 217 | 35 | 15 | 8 | 14.9% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 5.92 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 52 | 0 | 58 | 248 | 48 | 12 | 6 | 19.1% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 4.78 | 3.42 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 35 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 20 | 0 | 21 | 102 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 4.8% | 6.75 | 5.41 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 7 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 15 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | SF | 24 | — | 24 | 99 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 36 | MLB | SF | — | — | 32 | 132 | 36 | 8 | 4 | 27.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 3.93 | 3.21 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | SF | 22 | — | 22 | 92 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 20.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 206 | 35 | 397 | 1719 | 363 | 166 | 50 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.13 | +5.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 104 | 18 | 200 | 865 | 183 | 84 | 25 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 4.13 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Burch Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.61 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 22 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 84 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2024 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 79 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 79 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 78 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 78 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 76 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 76 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.29 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 326 | 76 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.46 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.6% | .298 | 5.44 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.98 | 3.21 | 225 | 75 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 75 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 75 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.32 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.4% | .341 | 7.44 | 8.3% | -0.9% | 22 | +4.12 | 3.32 | 209 | 75 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.02 | 22.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | .292 | 5.18 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 24 | +1.16 | 2.73 | 316 | 74 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 74 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.50 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 140 | 73 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.73 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.99 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.26 | 3.50 | 219 | 73 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.19 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.0% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 244 | 72 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 72 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.18 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.