Burch Smith

P Detroit Tigers

Age 37 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPIL-6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	34	MIX2 levels	52	0	58	4.78	3.41	19.4%	4.8%	0.8	K 19.1% · BB 5.0% · FIP 3.50
2025	35	MIX2 levels	20	0	21	6.75	4.74	27.5%	12.7%	—	K 22.8% · BB 11.0% · FIP 5.26
2026	36	MIX3 levels	23	2	28	3.21	2.78	31.6%	7.0%	0.6	K 27.4% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.57
2027PROJ	37	MLBDET	83	0	87	4.35	4.33	22.7%	8.5%	0.2
2028PROJ86% MLB	38	MLBDET	77	0	81	4.60	4.77	21.5%	9.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ72% MLB	39	MLBDET	46	0	48	4.96	5.20	20.4%	9.9%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%78

xwOBA vs76

FB Velo40

CompsMatt Bush (age 37) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.35

FIP4.33

K%22.7%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP87

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p7827.4%

xwOBA vs

p760.287

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2013	23	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	10	7	36	167	46	20	9	70%	3.6	27.5%	12.0%	15.6%	5.3%	6.44	5.18	+0.1
2013	23	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	10	7	36	167	46	20	9	70%	3.6	27.5%	12.0%	15.6%	5.4%	6.44	5.44	-0.0
2017	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	12	56	227	56	24	3	92%	4.3	19.5%	12.6%	6.9%	1.6%	2.40	3.93	—
2017	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	12	56	227	56	24	3	92%	4.3	24.7%	10.6%	14.1%	1.3%	2.40	3.08	—
2018	28	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	38	6	78	358	77	38	15	16%	2.1	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	4.5%	6.92	5.11	-0.5
2018	28	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	38	6	78	358	77	38	15	16%	2.1	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	4.2%	6.92	5.09	-0.5
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	17	114	490	123	58	10	49%	3.2	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	2.2%	3.17	3.96	+0.8
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	17	114	490	123	58	10	49%	3.2	25.1%	11.8%	13.3%	2.0%	3.17	3.61	+1.3
2020	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	6	0	12	44	13	1	1	0%	2.0	29.5%	2.3%	27.3%	2.3%	2.25	2.14	+0.4
2020	30	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	6	0	12	44	13	1	1	0%	2.0	29.5%	2.3%	27.3%	2.3%	2.25	2.27	+0.3
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	49	217	35	15	8	0%	1.4	14.9%	5.9%	9.0%	2.9%	5.92	4.19	+0.2
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	49	217	35	15	8	0%	1.4	16.1%	6.9%	9.2%	3.7%	5.92	4.72	-0.1
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	58	248	48	12	6	0%	1.1	19.1%	5.0%	14.1%	2.5%	4.78	3.50	+0.7
2024	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	58	248	48	12	6	0%	1.1	19.1%	5.0%	14.1%	2.5%	4.78	3.50	+0.7
2024	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	58	248	48	12	6	0%	1.1	19.4%	4.8%	14.5%	2.4%	4.78	3.41	+0.8
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	21	102	28	13	4	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.0%	11.8%	4.9%	6.75	5.26	—
2025	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	21	102	28	13	4	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.0%	11.8%	4.9%	6.75	5.26	—
2025	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	21	102	28	13	4	0%	1.1	27.5%	12.7%	14.7%	3.9%	6.75	4.74	—
2026	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	2	28	114	36	8	3	9%	1.2	27.4%	9.6%	17.8%	2.9%	3.21	3.57	+0.3
2026	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	2	28	114	36	8	3	9%	1.2	27.4%	9.6%	17.8%	2.9%	3.21	3.57	+0.3
2026	36	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	2	28	114	36	8	3	9%	1.2	31.6%	7.0%	24.6%	2.6%	3.21	2.78	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			165	14	264	1177	250	101	41	8%	1.6	21.2%	8.6%	12.7%	3.5%	5.62	4.37	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	DET	83	0	87	367	83	31	11	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.5%	14.2%	3.1%	4.35	4.33	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	DET	90	0	95	400	86	37	14	0%	1.1	21.5%	9.2%	12.3%	3.5%	4.60	4.77	-0.2
2029	39	MLB MLE	DET	64	0	67	284	58	28	11	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	4.0%	4.96	5.20	-0.5
2028	38	MLB CTX	DET	77	0	81	342	74	31	12	0%	1.1	21.5%	9.2%	12.3%	3.5%	4.60	4.77	-0.2
2029	39	MLB CTX	DET	46	0	48	203	41	20	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	4.0%	4.96	5.20	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		289	14	394	1725	366	153	61	5%	1.4	21.2%	8.9%	12.3%	3.6%	5.33	4.38	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		146	7	200	875	186	78	31	5%	1.4	21.2%	8.9%	12.3%	3.6%	5.33	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		232	44	453	1967	425	195	61	19%	2.0	21.6%	9.9%	11.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.24	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		103	19	200	869	188	86	27	19%	2.0	21.6%	9.9%	11.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.24	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 10 IPFIP 0.87 → 1.55 (+0.68)K% 44.4% → 38.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.44%	—	×0.860	38.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.87 → 1.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 20 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.26 (+0.61)K% 26.5% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.53%	—	×0.860	22.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.24%	—	×0.900	11.02%
HR / BF /BF	4.08%	÷0.915	×1.100	4.91%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 5 IPFIP 8.49 → 9.78 (+1.29)K% 24.1% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.14%	—	×0.880	21.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.79%	—	×1.050	14.48%
HR / BF /BF	10.34%	÷0.941	×1.100	12.09%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 8.49 → 9.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASacramento River Cats · 92 IPFIP 3.35 → 3.77 (+0.42)K% 26.8% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.82%	—	×0.880	23.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.98%	—	×1.050	12.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷1.027	×1.100	1.95%

Result: FIP 3.35 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 37 IPFIP 3.29 → 4.07 (+0.78)K% 21.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.15%	—	×0.770	16.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.82%	—	×1.150	14.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.64%	÷0.917	×1.250	0.87%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.29 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAADurham Bulls · 16 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.55 (+0.45)K% 31.7% → 27.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.67%	—	×0.880	27.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.050	7.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷1.049	×1.100	3.50%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Burch Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	22.7%	8.5%	3.1%	—	4.95	21.1%	11.6%	162	+0.62	—	—	—
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	72
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	71
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	67
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	66
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	66
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	66
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	64
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	61
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	60
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	57
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	57
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	52
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	51
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	48
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	48
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	45
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	36
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	35
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	31

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	65	21.4%	9.1%	1.35	5.11
Jorge López ('25)	2.8	70	19.8%	8.8%	1.36	5.31
John Boozer ('62-'69, -2 WAR*)	2.0	66	21.1%*	9.0%*	1.46*	5.15*
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
John Strohmayer ('70-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.6	78	19.6%*	9.2%*	1.42*	5.14*
Buddy Carlyle ('15)	1.5	58	18.5%	8.5%	1.32	5.14
Frank Wills ('83-'91, -1 WAR*)	2.2	62	20.5%*	10.2%*	1.27*	5.30*