Trevor Martin

P Salt Lake Bees

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 238 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	28	26	122	4.41	3.26	26.3%	7.2%	—	K 20.6% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.21
2025	24	MIX2 levels	38	0	53	3.21	3.57	24.9%	8.6%	—	K 19.2% · BB 9.8% · FIP 4.48
2026	25	MIX2 levels	41	4	72	3.64	3.84	23.2%	11.6%	0.6	K 20.4% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.94
2027PROJ	26	MLBLAA	45	0	47	4.56	4.69	20.3%	10.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ76% MLB	27	MLBLAA	38	0	40	4.62	4.69	20.6%	10.6%	-0.1
2029PROJ81% MLB	28	MLBLAA	35	0	37	4.68	4.75	20.6%	10.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo55

K%10

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsTyler Yates (age 26) · Taylor Grover (age 26) · Cameron Foster (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.56

FIP4.69

K%20.3%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p1920.9%

p1012.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.359

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	100%	1.0	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.26	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	100%	1.0	40.0%	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	25	22	110	456	131	41	11	88%	4.4	21.3%	10.6%	10.6%	2.9%	3.52	4.25	—
2023	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	25	22	110	456	131	41	11	88%	4.4	28.7%	9.0%	19.7%	2.4%	3.52	3.14	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	122	525	138	38	14	93%	4.4	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.21	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	122	525	138	38	14	93%	4.4	20.6%	8.1%	12.5%	3.3%	4.41	4.21	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	122	525	138	38	14	93%	4.4	26.3%	7.2%	19.0%	2.7%	4.41	3.26	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	221	55	19	6	0%	1.4	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	3.2%	3.21	4.48	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	53	221	55	19	6	0%	1.4	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	3.2%	3.21	4.48	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	53	221	55	19	6	0%	1.4	24.9%	8.6%	16.3%	2.7%	3.21	3.57	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	4	72	327	76	38	7	10%	1.7	20.4%	10.7%	9.7%	2.2%	3.64	3.94	+0.5
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	4	72	327	76	38	7	10%	1.7	20.4%	10.7%	9.7%	2.2%	3.64	3.94	+0.5
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	4	72	327	76	38	7	10%	1.7	23.2%	11.6%	11.6%	2.1%	3.64	3.84	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	0	15	73	9	7	4	0%	1.9	12.3%	9.6%	2.7%	5.5%	4.11	6.69	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	LAA	45	0	47	198	40	21	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.7%	9.6%	2.9%	4.56	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	LAA	50	0	52	221	45	23	6	0%	1.0	20.6%	10.6%	9.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.69	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	LAA	43	0	45	192	40	20	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.7%	10.0%	3.0%	4.68	4.75	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	LAA	38	0	40	169	35	18	5	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.6%	9.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.69	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	LAA	35	0	37	156	32	17	5	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.7%	10.0%	3.0%	4.68	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	0	92	398	76	42	14	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.4%	8.6%	3.4%	4.56	4.69	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		176	0	200	862	165	91	30	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.4%	8.6%	3.4%	4.56	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		133	53	358	1534	316	149	45	40%	2.7	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	2.9%	3.79	4.20	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	30	200	856	176	83	25	40%	2.7	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	2.9%	3.79	4.20	-1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 56 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.29 (+0.22)K% 26.4% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.38%	—	×0.860	22.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×0.900	10.98%
HR / BF /BF	1.18%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.30%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 49 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.48 (+0.90)K% 23.6% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.65%	—	×0.810	19.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.87%	—	×1.100	9.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷0.922	×1.200	3.20%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 72 IPFIP 2.33 → 3.24 (+0.91)K% 29.6% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.63%	—	×0.770	22.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.40%	—	×1.150	7.36%
HR / BF /BF	1.68%	÷1.015	×1.250	2.07%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 3.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 50 IPFIP 4.47 → 5.47 (+1.00)K% 21.9% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.93%	—	×0.810	17.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.100	9.17%
HR / BF /BF	3.95%	÷0.958	×1.200	4.94%

Result: FIP 4.47 → 5.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 110 IPFIP 3.14 → 4.25 (+1.11)K% 28.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.73%	—	×0.740	21.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.99%	—	×1.180	10.61%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.075	×1.300	2.92%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 3.14 → 4.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trevor Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.72	20.6%	10.0%	98	+0.03	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	81
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	76
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	76
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	76
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	75
David Pauley R 2008 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	16.4%	7.5%	3.0%	.429	4.30	13.8%	7.3%	165	+0.00	3.51	210	75
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	75
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	75
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	74
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	74
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	74
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	74
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	73
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	73
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	73
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	73
Linder Castro R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	18.9%	10.7%	3.2%	.305	5.68	21.1%	6.3%	62	+1.05	4.23	279	72
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	72
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	71
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	19.7%	10.6%	1.22	4.57
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*