Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL D-backs Black | 5 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 40% | 1.5 | 17.1% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 2.35 | 3.46 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL D-backs Black | 5 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 40% | 1.5 | 17.1% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 2.35 | 3.49 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 121 | 509 | 151 | 50 | 9 | 96% | 5.3 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 3.49 | 4.19 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 121 | 509 | 151 | 50 | 9 | 96% | 5.3 | 29.7% | 9.8% | 19.8% | 1.8% | 3.49 | 2.81 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 129 | 587 | 125 | 74 | 23 | 100% | 4.8 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.30 | 5.10 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 27 | 129 | 587 | 125 | 74 | 23 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.3% | 12.6% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 5.30 | 5.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | 18 | 5 | 40 | 188 | 44 | 26 | 10 | 28% | 2.2 | 21.0% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.65 | 6.80 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ARI | 84 | 0 | 88 | 374 | 64 | 54 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 14.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.58 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ARI | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 14.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.58 | 5.58 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 128 | 562 | 108 | 80 | 22 | — | — | 19.3% | 14.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 6.22 | 5.96 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 17.2% | 14.5% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.58 | 5.20 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 15 | 87 | 368 | 65 | 51 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.6% | 13.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.47 | 5.48 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 14 | 14 | 85 | 357 | 64 | 49 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.44 | 5.47 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 13 | 13 | 81 | 341 | 61 | 46 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.8% | 13.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.48 | 5.54 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 25 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.6% | 13.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.47 | 5.48 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 38 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.8% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 5.44 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 43 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.8% | 13.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 5.48 | 5.54 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 23 | 142 | 600 | 107 | 82 | 20 | 92% | 5.7 | 17.8% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.46 | 5.13 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 115 | 28 | 93% | 5.7 | 17.8% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.46 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
| Career | — | 73 | 56 | 298 | 1319 | 263 | 168 | 46 | 77% | 4.1 | 19.9% | 12.7% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.95 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 38 | 200 | 885 | 176 | 113 | 31 | 77% | 4.1 | 19.9% | 12.7% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.95 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Roman Angelo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.58 | 17.2% | 14.5% | 3.1% | — | 5.50 | 17.8% | 4.1% | 253 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 88 |
| Phillippe Aumont R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 19.6% | 18.2% | 1.6% | .262 | 5.31 | 22.3% | 10.4% | 64 | +0.67 | 4.64 | 147 | 80 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 77 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 76 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 11.7% | 11.7% | 1.9% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 371 | 76 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 76 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 76 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 75 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.21 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 316 | 75 |
| Deylen Miley R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.05 | 22.3% | 17.5% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 185 | 75 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 75 |
| Drake Fellows R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.39 | 16.2% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .293 | 4.64 | 16.3% | 6.7% | 150 | -0.75 | 4.58 | 226 | 74 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 74 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 73 |
| Luis Niebla R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 73 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 73 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 73 |
| Alex Valverde R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.33 | 15.3% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 423 | 72 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 72 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 4.2% | .262 | 3.81 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 472 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 85 | 17.6% | 13.9% | 1.25 | 5.49 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Brandon Finnegan ('18) | 3 | 80 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 1.57 | 4.19 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |