Jack Wenninger
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 74 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.27
FIP4.27
K%22.3%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP74
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 153 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.2 | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 2.40 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 1.2 | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 2.24 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 115 | 502 | 140 | 40 | 11 | 76% | 4.6 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 4.1% | 4.30 | 4.77 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 115 | 502 | 140 | 40 | 11 | 76% | 4.6 | 27.9% | 8.0% | 19.9% | 2.2% | 4.30 | 2.95 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 26 | 26 | 136 | 556 | 147 | 42 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.4% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 2.9% | 2.92 | 3.91 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 26 | 26 | 136 | 556 | 147 | 42 | 13 | 100% | 5.2 | 26.4% | 7.6% | 18.9% | 2.3% | 2.92 | 3.11 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 17 | 14 | 80 | 345 | 77 | 44 | 11 | 82% | 4.7 | 19.6% | 13.4% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 3.50 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 69 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 1 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 7.0 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 153 | 656 | 146 | 69 | 20 | — | — | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 3.87 | 4.68 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 7 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 22.3% | 8.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.27 | 3.89 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 129 | 544 | 124 | 43 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.8% | 7.9% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.19 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 141 | 595 | 137 | 47 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.17 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 139 | 586 | 134 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.9% | 7.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 135 | 568 | 130 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 128 | 543 | 122 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.43 | +1.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 121 | 510 | 113 | 44 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 113 | 475 | 104 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.81 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 60 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 22.8% | 7.9% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 16 | 16 | 98 | 414 | 95 | 32 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 7.8% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.19 | 4.17 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 110 | 464 | 107 | 37 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.9% | 7.9% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 111 | 39 | 15 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 14.7% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.30 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 19 | 113 | 477 | 108 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 4.43 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 109 | 460 | 102 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 3.5% | 4.51 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 103 | 435 | 95 | 39 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.8% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 4.68 | 4.80 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 120 | 718 | 3031 | 684 | 250 | 98 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.01 | +11.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 70 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 3.2% | 4.35 | 4.01 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 70 | 60 | 333 | 1415 | 296 | 141 | 49 | 86% | 4.8 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 3.57 | 4.48 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 36 | 200 | 851 | 178 | 85 | 29 | 86% | 4.8 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 3.57 | 4.48 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Wenninger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.19 | 22.9% | 15.0% | 409 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 90 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 88 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 86 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 86 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 85 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.10 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.53 | 3.57 | 252 | 85 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.67 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.85 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.18 | 3.67 | 523 | 85 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.65 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .280 | 6.01 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 56 | +2.36 | 3.65 | 287 | 85 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 85 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.19 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .291 | 5.46 | 18.2% | 4.6% | 163 | +1.27 | 4.19 | 285 | 84 |
| Gabe Mosser R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.79 | 17.7% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .346 | 4.63 | 14.9% | 6.9% | 104 | +0.84 | 3.79 | 606 | 84 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 83 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .278 | 5.41 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.96 | 260 | 83 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.95 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .266 | 5.04 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.09 | 3.95 | 279 | 83 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.14 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.42 | 1.35 | 797 | 83 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 83 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.66 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .298 | 5.01 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.20 | 416 | 83 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 83 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.20 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.07 | 1.96 | 352 | 83 |
| Mason Adams R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.84 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .290 | 4.23 | 21.6% | 12.3% | 25 | +0.39 | 3.84 | 254 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 127 | 22.6% | 8.2% | 1.23 | 4.33 |
| Danny Duffy ('21) | 7 | 124 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 4.04 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| J.A. Happ ('21) | 7 | 150 | 21.6% | 7.1% | 1.32 | 4.03 |