Jack Wenninger — OGILVIE

Jack Wenninger P Syracuse Mets

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION113 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%22.3%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4050

CMD4555

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$6M	+$6M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$6M	+$3M
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$7M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$25M	+$17M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	2	12	4	2	0	50%	1.2	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	7.71	2.40	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	2	12	4	2	0	50%	1.2	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	7.71	2.40	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	1	2	12	4	2	0	50%	1.2	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	7.71	2.24	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	115	502	140	40	11	76%	4.6	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	3.3%	4.30	4.33	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	115	502	140	40	11	76%	4.6	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	3.3%	4.30	4.33	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	115	502	140	40	11	76%	4.6	27.9%	8.0%	19.9%	2.2%	4.30	2.95	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	26	26	136	556	147	42	13	100%	5.2	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	2.8%	2.92	3.90	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	26	26	136	556	147	42	13	100%	5.2	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	2.8%	2.92	3.90	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	26	26	136	556	147	42	13	100%	5.2	26.4%	7.6%	18.9%	2.3%	2.92	3.11	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	25	21	113	498	122	66	15	84%	4.5	20.3%	11.9%	8.4%	3.3%	4.21	4.71	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	25	21	113	498	122	66	15	84%	4.5	20.3%	11.9%	8.4%	3.3%	4.21	4.71	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	NYM	25	21	113	498	122	66	15	84%	4.5	24.5%	13.3%	11.2%	3.0%	4.21	4.36	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	NYM	2	2	10	42	9	3	1	100%	5.0	22.3%	8.2%	14.1%	2.9%	4.25	4.25	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	123	540	131	69	16	—	—	24.3%	12.9%	11.5%	3.0%	4.21	4.68	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	142	598	136	48	17	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.0%	14.9%	2.9%	4.20	4.16	+1.2
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	154	649	149	51	19	100%	5.9	23.0%	7.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.17	4.14	+1.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	155	656	150	52	20	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.0%	15.0%	3.0%	4.18	4.18	+1.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	155	656	150	53	20	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.1%	14.7%	3.1%	4.24	4.27	+1.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYM	25	25	148	626	141	52	20	100%	5.9	22.6%	8.3%	14.2%	3.2%	4.34	4.40	+0.9
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	139	589	131	51	20	100%	6.1	22.2%	8.6%	13.6%	3.4%	4.48	4.58	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	130	549	120	49	20	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.0%	12.8%	3.7%	4.66	4.78	+0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	120	508	108	48	20	100%	6.0	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	3.9%	4.87	5.01	-0.2
2035	33	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	110	466	97	46	19	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.8%	11.0%	4.2%	5.10	5.26	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYM	12	12	68	287	65	23	8	100%	5.7	22.8%	8.0%	14.9%	2.9%	4.20	4.16	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	106	448	103	35	13	100%	5.9	23.0%	7.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.17	4.14	+1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	123	519	119	41	15	100%	6.2	22.9%	8.0%	15.0%	3.0%	4.18	4.18	+1.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	132	557	127	45	17	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.1%	14.7%	3.1%	4.24	4.27	+1.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	131	553	125	46	18	100%	6.0	22.6%	8.3%	14.2%	3.2%	4.34	4.40	+0.8
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	126	532	118	46	18	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.6%	13.6%	3.4%	4.48	4.58	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	119	502	110	45	18	100%	6.0	21.8%	9.0%	12.8%	3.6%	4.65	4.77	+0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	112	473	101	44	18	100%	5.9	21.4%	9.4%	12.0%	3.9%	4.86	5.00	-0.1
2035	33	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	103	435	91	43	18	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.8%	11.0%	4.2%	5.09	5.25	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		171	171	1022	4315	961	370	145	100%	6.0	22.3%	8.6%	13.7%	3.4%	4.47	4.15	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	188	72	28	100%	6.0	22.3%	8.6%	13.7%	3.4%	4.47	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		78	67	366	1568	329	154	49	86%	4.7	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.1%	3.78	4.28	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	37	200	856	180	84	27	86%	4.7	21.0%	9.8%	11.2%	3.1%	3.78	4.28	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Wenninger (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	22.3%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.16	22.9%	15.0%	450	-0.09	—	—	—
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	88
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	88
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	85
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.66	18.1%	11.3%	332	+0.97	3.69	523	85
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	84
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	84
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	651	83
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	83
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	83
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	820	83
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	83
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	83
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	20.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.85	20.0%	13.6%	140	-0.63	2.39	485	83
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	82
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	236	82
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.95	17.6%	8.5%	323	+0.34	4.35	416	82
Alex FaGalde R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	24	SP	3.82	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	5.04	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.22	3.82	279	82
Ty Madden R 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	24.0%	11.2%	3.7%	.304	4.87	20.6%	11.1%	207	+0.35	4.52	448	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.8	136	22.3%	8.5%	1.27	4.42
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45