Jack Wenninger
P
Syracuse Mets
+1.5
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 1.7 · 2028
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%13.3%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 25 | 19 | 115 | 502 | 140 | 40 | 11 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.25 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 26 | 26 | 136 | 556 | 147 | 42 | 13 | 21.4% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 2.92 | 3.90 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 2 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 10 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 111 | 44 | 15 | 22.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 129 | 545 | 121 | 48 | 15 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.03 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 126 | 48 | 16 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.26 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 134 | 50 | 17 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.24 | +1.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 136 | 51 | 18 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +1.7 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 143 | 605 | 136 | 51 | 18 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 140 | 591 | 132 | 50 | 18 | 22.4% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.32 | +1.6 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 127 | 49 | 18 | 22.1% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 24 | 24 | 131 | 553 | 121 | 48 | 17 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 126 | 531 | 115 | 47 | 17 | 21.6% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.54 | +1.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 108 | 46 | 17 | 21.3% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 101 | 44 | 16 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 93 | 43 | 16 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.5 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 86 | 41 | 15 | 20.2% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 5.01 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 17 | 17 | 93 | 394 | 78 | 39 | 15 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 5.06 | 5.15 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 48 | 262 | 1108 | 238 | 99 | 32 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 3.50 | 3.99 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 37 | 200 | 846 | 182 | 76 | 24 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 3.50 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Wenninger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 22.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.25 | 22.5% | 14.1% | 417 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 90 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 89 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 89 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.55 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.02 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.47 | 3.55 | 252 | 88 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .359 | 4.85 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.83 | 4.02 | 118 | 88 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 88 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 88 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 88 |
| Roman Angelo R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.02 | 22.6% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.45 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 141 | +1.43 | 4.02 | 262 | 87 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .287 | 4.02 | 24.5% | 15.7% | 313 | -0.17 | 3.31 | 571 | 86 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.67 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .280 | 6.90 | 17.1% | 1.8% | 38 | +3.23 | 3.67 | 270 | 86 |
| Martin Agosta R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.29 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | .340 | 4.59 | 12.3% | 5.7% | 40 | +0.30 | 4.29 | 146 | 86 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 85 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.01 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% | .256 | 5.52 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.51 | 4.01 | 277 | 85 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.22 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.35 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.13 | 2.01 | 352 | 85 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 85 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.49 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% | .264 | 3.71 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.78 | 3.71 | 155 | 85 |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .336 | 6.35 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.48 | 3.87 | 124 | 85 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.57 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.07 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.50 | 1.32 | 765 | 85 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.68 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.69 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.01 | 3.68 | 523 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.6 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.7 | $14M | +$14M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $4M | +1.7 | $15M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $6M | +1.6 | $15M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +1.4 | $13M | +$5M |
| Totals | $20M | $86M | +$66M | ||