Jack Wenninger

P Syracuse Mets

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTPre-ArbFA 2033

OGV OFP40OGV rank#241ETA2028MLB%14%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	19	115	4.30	2.95	27.9%	8.0%	—	K 20.9% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.33
2025	23	AANYM	26	26	136	2.92	3.11	26.4%	7.6%	—	K 21.4% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.90
2026	24	AAANYM	26	22	115	4.54	4.54	24.1%	13.3%	—	K 20.7% · BB 12.0% · FIP 4.76
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYM	4	4	22	4.66	4.66	21.9%	10.2%	0.2
2028PROJ50% MLB	26	MLBNYM	13	13	79	4.59	4.58	22.3%	9.9%	0.8
2029PROJ67% MLB	27	MLBNYM	14	14	87	4.58	4.59	22.3%	9.8%	0.8

Next 3 projected WAR 1.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$2M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 9.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 78%

CompsRiley Gowens (age 24) · Roman Angelo (age 24) · Félix Peña (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%21.9%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%11.7%

Proj IP156

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$12M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	2	12	4	2	0	50%	1.2	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	7.71	2.40	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	1	2	12	4	2	0	50%	1.2	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	7.71	2.24	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	115	502	140	40	11	76%	4.6	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	3.3%	4.30	4.33	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	115	502	140	40	11	76%	4.6	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	3.3%	4.30	4.33	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	115	502	140	40	11	76%	4.6	27.9%	8.0%	19.9%	2.2%	4.30	2.95	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	26	26	136	556	147	42	13	100%	5.2	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	2.8%	2.92	3.90	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	26	26	136	556	147	42	13	100%	5.2	21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	2.8%	2.92	3.90	—
2025	23	AA RAW	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	26	26	136	556	147	42	13	100%	5.2	26.4%	7.6%	18.9%	2.3%	2.92	3.11	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	26	22	115	511	123	68	16	85%	4.4	20.7%	12.0%	8.7%	3.4%	4.54	4.76	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	26	22	115	511	123	68	16	85%	4.4	20.7%	12.0%	8.7%	3.4%	4.54	4.76	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	26	22	115	511	123	68	16	85%	4.4	24.1%	13.3%	10.8%	3.1%	4.54	4.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYM	4	4	22	93	20	9	3	100%	5.5	21.9%	10.2%	11.7%	3.2%	4.66	4.66	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	156	657	147	65	21	100%	6.0	22.3%	9.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.58	+1.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	128	542	121	53	17	100%	6.1	22.3%	9.8%	12.5%	3.2%	4.58	4.59	+1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	123	520	115	51	17	100%	5.9	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	3.3%	4.62	4.66	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	114	481	105	48	16	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	3.4%	4.71	4.78	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	103	437	94	45	16	100%	6.1	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.6%	4.86	4.95	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	92	390	82	42	15	100%	6.2	21.1%	10.7%	10.5%	3.8%	5.04	5.16	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	13	13	79	334	74	33	10	100%	6.1	22.3%	9.9%	12.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.58	+0.8
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	87	367	82	36	12	100%	6.2	22.3%	9.8%	12.5%	3.2%	4.58	4.59	+0.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	96	405	90	40	13	100%	6.0	22.1%	9.8%	12.3%	3.3%	4.62	4.66	+0.8
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	95	401	88	40	14	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.0%	11.9%	3.4%	4.71	4.78	+0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	90	380	82	39	14	100%	6.0	21.5%	10.3%	11.2%	3.6%	4.86	4.95	+0.5
2033	31	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	83	350	74	37	13	100%	5.9	21.1%	10.7%	10.5%	3.8%	5.03	5.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	88	529	2234	488	225	76	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	3.4%	4.73	4.40	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	184	85	29	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.1%	11.8%	3.4%	4.73	4.40	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		79	68	368	1581	334	156	50	86%	4.7	21.1%	9.9%	11.3%	3.2%	3.89	4.30	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	37	200	859	182	85	27	86%	4.7	21.1%	9.9%	11.3%	3.2%	3.89	4.30	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 115 IPFIP 4.47 → 4.76 (+0.29)K% 24.1% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.07%	—	×0.860	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.31%	—	×0.900	11.98%
HR / BF /BF	3.13%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.47 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 136 IPFIP 3.11 → 3.90 (+0.79)K% 26.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.44%	—	×0.810	21.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.55%	—	×1.100	8.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.34%	÷0.990	×1.200	2.83%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 3.11 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 72 IPFIP 3.39 → 5.20 (+1.81)K% 28.7% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.71%	—	×0.740	21.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.42%	—	×1.180	8.75%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.826	×1.300	5.08%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 65).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 5.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 43 IPFIP 2.26 → 2.93 (+0.66)K% 26.6% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.56%	—	×0.770	20.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.85%	—	×1.150	10.18%
HR / BF /BF	0.52%	÷1.341	×1.250	0.49%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 168).

Result: FIP 2.26 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Wenninger (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	4.61	22.2%	12.4%	407	-0.05	—	—	—
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	84
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	83
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	83
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	82
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	82
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	81
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	81
Chandler Champlain R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	16.7%	8.1%	3.6%	.298	4.77	15.3%	8.7%	247	+0.05	4.56	628	80
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	79
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	79
D.J. Brown R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP-	4.43	16.7%	8.1%	3.1%	.317	4.49	16.3%	9.3%	74	+0.06	4.02	348	79
Trystan Vrieling R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	17.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.84	17.9%	5.3%	198	+0.82	4.02	345	79
Jaime Schultz R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	25	SP	3.67	25.9%	12.9%	2.1%	.326	3.88	28.2%	15.6%	126	+0.21	2.19	391	79
Taylor Jungmann R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	25	SP	3.59	20.4%	10.1%	1.7%	.302	4.30	18.0%	4.8%	256	+0.71	3.59	435	79
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	79
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	79
Carlos Pimentel R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.266	4.32	15.8%	5.8%	158	-0.11	4.30	301	78
Shao-Ching Chiang R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	25	SP	4.72	18.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	575	78
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	78
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	125	21.9%	10.1%	1.29	4.70
Ken Kravec ('75-'82, 5 WAR*)	4.3	123	23.6%*	10.7%*	1.11*	4.73*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Bill Stoneman ('67-'74, 7 WAR*)	6.2	155	22.8%*	11.1%*	1.25*	4.75*
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	106	20.5%	9.7%	1.30	4.61
Mike Norris ('75-'90, 8 WAR*)	5.6	125	21.2%*	10.4%*	1.18*	4.40*
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32