Trystan Vrieling

Trystan Vrieling P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 217 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%16.4%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 125 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	25	147	619	132	46	13	93%	5.5	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.5%	4.58	4.02	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	25	147	619	132	46	13	93%	5.5	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.5%	4.58	4.02	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	27	25	147	619	132	46	13	93%	5.5	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	2.1%	4.58	3.39	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	19	82	358	83	30	9	90%	3.9	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	2.8%	4.63	4.34	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	19	82	358	83	30	9	90%	3.9	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	2.8%	4.63	4.34	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	19	82	358	83	30	9	90%	3.9	23.2%	8.4%	14.8%	2.5%	4.63	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	26	26	119	538	116	70	14	100%	4.6	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	3.1%	4.98	5.09	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	26	26	119	538	116	70	14	100%	4.6	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	3.1%	4.98	5.09	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	SF	23	23	106	465	98	62	12	100%	4.6	21.1%	13.3%	7.7%	2.6%	4.23	4.43	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	SF	3	3	13	73	18	8	2	100%	4.3	24.7%	11.0%	13.7%	2.7%	11.08	3.91	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SF	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	5.9	16.4%	9.3%	7.2%	2.8%	4.82	4.82	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	125	563	120	72	15	—	—	21.3%	12.8%	8.5%	2.6%	4.97	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	133	560	97	51	16	100%	6.0	17.4%	9.1%	8.3%	2.8%	4.74	4.73	+0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	22	22	131	551	98	50	16	100%	5.9	17.7%	9.0%	8.7%	2.9%	4.72	4.73	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	21	21	127	535	95	49	16	100%	6.0	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	3.0%	4.75	4.79	+0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	20	20	121	511	90	48	16	100%	6.0	17.7%	9.3%	8.4%	3.2%	4.84	4.90	0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	19	19	114	480	83	46	16	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	3.4%	4.98	5.08	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	58	245	43	22	6	100%	5.8	17.4%	9.1%	8.3%	2.6%	4.62	4.61	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	14	14	83	350	62	32	9	100%	5.9	17.7%	9.0%	8.7%	2.7%	4.60	4.61	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	96	405	72	37	11	100%	6.0	17.8%	9.1%	8.7%	2.8%	4.63	4.67	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	99	418	74	39	12	100%	6.2	17.7%	9.3%	8.4%	2.9%	4.71	4.77	0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	16	16	98	414	72	40	13	100%	6.1	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	72	433	1829	321	169	52	100%	6.0	17.6%	9.2%	8.3%	2.9%	4.69	4.35	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	148	78	24	100%	6.0	17.6%	9.2%	8.3%	2.9%	4.69	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		74	70	348	1515	264	160	42	95%	4.7	17.4%	10.5%	6.9%	2.8%	4.73	4.48	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	870	152	92	24	95%	4.7	17.4%	10.5%	6.9%	2.8%	4.73	4.48	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trystan Vrieling (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	16.4%	9.3%	2.8%	—	4.75	17.6%	8.5%	390	-0.07	—	—	—
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	91
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	89
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	88
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	87
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	87
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	86
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	86
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	85
Tim Atherton R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	25	SP	3.77	16.2%	8.6%	1.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	101	84
Jordan Pries R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP	4.29	14.0%	7.5%	2.6%	.307	4.43	17.4%	9.2%	131	+0.14	4.29	219	83
Brandon Birdsell R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.05	19.2%	13.6%	154	+0.14	3.87	262	83
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	83
Connor Staine R 2023 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	16.5%	7.9%	2.1%	.343	5.08	17.3%	4.6%	320	+1.22	3.86	414	82
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	81
Johendí Jiminian R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP	5.25	14.0%	11.4%	3.5%	.282	4.41	13.9%	4.4%	94	-0.84	4.01	419	81
Justin Armbruester R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP	4.44	17.3%	9.6%	2.9%	.271	5.30	20.4%	9.9%	135	+0.86	1.49	373	81
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	81
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	81
Jayden Murray R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SP	4.50	16.9%	8.6%	3.2%	.258	4.65	18.5%	7.2%	105	+0.15	3.80	363	81
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	116	17.5%	9.2%	1.17	4.80
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25