Trystan Vrieling
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
+0.7
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 217 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.1 · 2028
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.5%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%10.5%
IP98
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 27 | 25 | 147 | 619 | 132 | 46 | 13 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 4.58 | 4.03 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 21 | 19 | 82 | 358 | 83 | 30 | 9 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.30 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 2 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 81 | 37 | 12 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.9 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 106 | 449 | 89 | 45 | 12 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.69 | 4.18 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 90 | 39 | 13 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.45 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 93 | 40 | 13 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 94 | 40 | 13 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 106 | 450 | 91 | 39 | 13 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.50 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SF | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 88 | 39 | 13 | 20.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SF | 18 | 18 | 100 | 421 | 83 | 38 | 13 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 79 | 37 | 13 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SF | 17 | 17 | 91 | 386 | 74 | 36 | 13 | 19.2% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SF | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 69 | 35 | 12 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 64 | 34 | 12 | 18.5% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.97 | 5.05 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | SF | 14 | 14 | 76 | 323 | 65 | 30 | 12 | 20.1% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.91 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 37 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 59 | 28 | 11 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 3.7% | 5.01 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 46 | 237 | 1011 | 178 | 92 | 25 | 17.6% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.67 | 4.13 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 853 | 150 | 78 | 21 | 17.6% | 9.1% | 2.5% | 4.67 | 4.13 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trystan Vrieling (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 19.5% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.45 | 20.3% | 11.5% | 323 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 92 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 92 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 90 |
| Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 90 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 90 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 90 |
| Corey Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 1.5% | .295 | 5.02 | 15.5% | 7.3% | 170 | +1.25 | 3.08 | 267 | 89 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 89 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 89 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 89 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.23 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.76 | 20.9% | 12.5% | 309 | -0.47 | 3.22 | 907 | 88 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 87 |
| Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.8% | .287 | 3.79 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.78 | 3.40 | 289 | 87 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 4.02 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.14 | 3.45 | 274 | 87 |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .307 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 219 | 87 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 86 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 86 |
| Ariel Peña R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 86 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 86 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2024 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $7M | $30M | +$24M | ||