Trystan Vrieling
P
Richmond Flying Squirrels
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 217 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
K%16.4%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%7.1%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 27 | 25 | 147 | 619 | 132 | 46 | 13 | 93% | 5.5 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 2.4% | 4.58 | 3.99 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 27 | 25 | 147 | 619 | 132 | 46 | 13 | 93% | 5.5 | 21.3% | 7.4% | 13.9% | 2.1% | 4.58 | 3.39 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 19 | 82 | 358 | 83 | 30 | 9 | 90% | 3.9 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 4.63 | 4.14 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 19 | 82 | 358 | 83 | 30 | 9 | 90% | 3.9 | 23.2% | 8.4% | 14.8% | 2.5% | 4.63 | 3.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 17 | 17 | 76 | 327 | 68 | 51 | 9 | 100% | 4.5 | 16.8% | 17.2% | -0.3% | 3.3% | 4.04 | 5.66 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 45 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 4.77 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 140 | 601 | 113 | 76 | 16 | — | — | 18.8% | 12.7% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | SF | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 16.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 4.71 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 52 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 2.8% | 4.70 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 52 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.69 | 4.70 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 51 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.81 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SF | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 44 | 186 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.63 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.66 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SF | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 39 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.81 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 178 | 753 | 135 | 71 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.9% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.33 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 80 | 24 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 65 | 61 | 305 | 1304 | 225 | 140 | 34 | 94% | 4.7 | 17.3% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.45 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 40 | 200 | 856 | 148 | 92 | 22 | 94% | 4.7 | 17.3% | 10.8% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trystan Vrieling (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 16.4% | 9.3% | 2.7% | — | 4.72 | 17.8% | 8.5% | 206 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 90 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 89 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 87 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 86 |
| Tim Atherton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.73 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 101 | 82 |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.15 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .307 | 4.55 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.40 | 4.15 | 219 | 82 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .297 | 3.33 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.90 | 2.82 | 536 | 82 |
| Evan Yates R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.51 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 2.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 169 | 82 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.28 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.2% | .338 | 3.79 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.49 | 3.79 | 143 | 81 |
| Jayden Murray R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.44 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .258 | 4.95 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 105 | +0.51 | 3.38 | 372 | 81 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.79 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .286 | 5.16 | 19.9% | 6.6% | 108 | +0.37 | 4.09 | 414 | 80 |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.42 | 14.0% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .282 | 4.43 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 94 | -0.99 | 3.93 | 419 | 80 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 80 |
| Allen Webster R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 80 |
| Nick Belzer R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.55 | 12.8% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 112 | 80 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 14.3% | 6.9% | 2.3% | .291 | 3.94 | 14.0% | 7.0% | 153 | -0.09 | 3.46 | 274 | 80 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 80 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.73 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.57 | 16.0% | 7.7% | 241 | -0.16 | 4.08 | 536 | 80 |
| Parker Smith R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 132 | 79 |
| Jake McCasland R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.02 | 15.9% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .355 | 4.54 | 12.8% | 3.3% | 106 | +0.52 | 3.27 | 367 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 68 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 1.11 | 4.74 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |