Trystan Vrieling

P Richmond Flying Squirrels

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 217 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AANYY	27	25	147	4.58	3.39	21.3%	7.4%	—	K 17.3% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.02
2025	24	MIX3 levels	21	19	82	4.63	3.60	23.2%	8.4%	—	K 17.6% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.34
2026	25	MIX2 levels	27	27	124	5.01	4.53	21.9%	13.5%	—	K 18.0% · BB 14.4% · FIP 5.14
2027PROJ	26	MLBSF	1	1	2	5.33	5.33	17.0%	12.9%	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBSF	5	5	32	5.25	5.26	17.5%	12.5%	0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBSF	7	7	43	5.23	5.27	17.7%	12.2%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsBritt Reames (age 26) · M.D. Johnson (age 26) · Hayden Merda (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.33

FIP5.33

K%17.0%

BB%12.9%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	25	147	619	132	46	13	93%	5.5	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.5%	4.58	4.02	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	27	25	147	619	132	46	13	93%	5.5	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.5%	4.58	4.02	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	27	25	147	619	132	46	13	93%	5.5	21.3%	7.4%	13.9%	2.1%	4.58	3.39	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	19	82	358	83	30	9	90%	3.9	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	2.8%	4.63	4.34	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	19	82	358	83	30	9	90%	3.9	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	2.8%	4.63	4.34	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	19	82	358	83	30	9	90%	3.9	23.2%	8.4%	14.8%	2.5%	4.63	3.60	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	124	561	123	76	15	100%	4.6	18.0%	14.4%	3.6%	3.2%	5.01	5.14	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	124	561	123	76	15	100%	4.6	18.0%	14.4%	3.6%	3.2%	5.01	5.14	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	124	561	123	76	15	100%	4.6	21.9%	13.5%	8.4%	2.7%	5.01	4.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	SF	1	1	2	8	1	1	0	100%	2.0	17.0%	12.9%	4.1%	3.0%	5.33	5.33	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	84	356	62	44	11	100%	6.0	17.5%	12.5%	5.0%	3.1%	5.25	5.26	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	73	308	55	38	10	100%	6.1	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	3.2%	5.23	5.27	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	66	278	49	34	9	100%	6.0	17.7%	12.2%	5.4%	3.3%	5.28	5.35	+0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	SF	10	10	59	251	44	31	9	100%	5.9	17.4%	12.4%	5.0%	3.5%	5.40	5.50	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SF	5	5	32	135	24	17	4	100%	6.4	17.5%	12.5%	5.0%	3.1%	5.25	5.26	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	43	182	32	22	6	100%	6.1	17.7%	12.2%	5.5%	3.2%	5.23	5.27	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	47	198	35	24	7	100%	5.9	17.7%	12.2%	5.4%	3.3%	5.28	5.35	+0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	SF	8	8	47	198	35	25	7	100%	5.9	17.4%	12.4%	5.0%	3.5%	5.40	5.50	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		28	28	168	711	125	88	23	100%	6.0	17.6%	12.3%	5.3%	3.3%	5.29	4.97	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	105	27	100%	6.0	17.6%	12.3%	5.3%	3.3%	5.29	4.97	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		75	71	353	1538	271	165	43	95%	4.7	17.6%	10.7%	6.9%	2.8%	4.74	4.50	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	871	153	94	24	95%	4.7	17.6%	10.7%	6.9%	2.8%	4.74	4.50	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 106 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.22 (+0.79)K% 21.1% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.08%	—	×0.810	17.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×1.100	14.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.58%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.10%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 18 IPFIP 4.46 → 4.76 (+0.29)K% 26.0% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.04%	—	×0.860	22.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.58%	—	×0.900	13.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.46 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 74 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.34 (+0.48)K% 21.7% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.71%	—	×0.810	17.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.56%	—	×1.100	9.42%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.183	×1.200	2.79%

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASomerset Patriots · 147 IPFIP 3.39 → 4.02 (+0.63)K% 21.3% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.32%	—	×0.810	17.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.43%	—	×1.100	8.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.10%	÷1.027	×1.200	2.45%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Trystan Vrieling (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.33	17.0%	12.9%	3.0%	—	5.29	17.6%	5.3%	223	-0.04	—	—	—
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	83
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	82
Hayden Merda R 2023 · 5.17 FIP	23	SP	5.17	16.1%	15.3%	2.7%	.325	4.59	25.5%	10.9%	108	-0.58	4.20	203	82
Ike Buxton R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.97	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.52	4.45	196	81
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	80
Nic Swanson R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	25	SP	4.91	19.3%	11.8%	3.5%	.286	5.43	19.9%	6.5%	132	+0.52	4.29	438	80
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	80
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	80
Scarlyn Reyes R 2016 · 4.52 FIP	26	SP	4.52	13.9%	11.9%	2.0%	.321	4.87	13.7%	5.3%	70	+0.35	4.16	317	80
Paul Rigdon R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP	5.34	13.6%	11.1%	3.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	5.29	167	79
Elijah Dale R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP	4.55	16.7%	13.6%	2.1%	.239	6.48	18.4%	-1.6%	31	+1.93	4.55	140	79
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	79
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	79
Michael Wagner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.4%	12.3%	1.9%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	149	78
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	78
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	78
Joe Nathan R 2000 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP-	5.19	14.3%	13.8%	2.8%	.262	3.30	26.3%	16.8%	79	-1.89	1.25	929	78
Ian Mejia R 2024 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	18.7%	11.6%	2.2%	.288	5.06	16.0%	6.6%	194	+0.84	3.94	439	77
Jarrod Cande R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.7%	11.0%	4.3%	.256	5.72	11.7%	-3.6%	23	+0.30	4.31	315	77
Will Schomberg R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	23	SP	4.85	21.4%	15.6%	2.9%	.266	3.86	23.3%	11.7%	90	-0.99	3.86	206	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	72	17.5%	12.5%	1.23	5.29
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*