Ian Mejia

P Columbus Clingstones

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	25	24	126	3.80	3.67	22.8%	10.8%	—	K 18.7% · BB 11.6% · FIP 4.22
2025	25	MIX2 levels	25	18	131	2.67	3.37	20.8%	7.8%	—	K 17.0% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.94
2026	26	MIX2 levels	27	15	77	7.01	6.29	18.6%	11.1%	—	K 14.2% · BB 11.9% · FIP 7.20
2027PROJ	27	MLBATL	1	1	1	5.57	5.57	15.0%	10.5%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBATL	4	4	21	5.49	5.53	15.7%	10.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBATL	4	4	26	5.50	5.57	16.0%	10.7%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control55Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsClay Condrey (age 27) · Travis Smith (age 29) · David Griffin (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.57

FIP5.57

K%15.0%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	6	17	70	13	5	1	100%	2.8	18.6%	7.1%	11.4%	1.4%	3.78	3.22	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	6	17	70	13	5	1	100%	2.8	18.6%	7.1%	11.4%	1.4%	3.78	3.22	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	23	23	121	504	110	28	16	100%	5.3	16.8%	6.4%	10.4%	3.9%	4.69	4.62	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	23	23	121	504	110	28	16	100%	5.3	21.8%	5.6%	16.3%	3.2%	4.69	3.70	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	126	544	124	59	11	96%	5.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	2.2%	3.80	4.22	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	126	544	124	59	11	96%	5.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	2.2%	3.80	4.22	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	126	544	124	59	11	96%	5.0	22.8%	10.8%	11.9%	2.0%	3.80	3.67	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	131	525	109	41	10	72%	5.3	17.0%	8.1%	9.0%	2.3%	2.67	3.94	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	131	525	109	41	10	72%	5.3	17.0%	8.1%	9.0%	2.3%	2.67	3.94	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	131	525	109	41	10	72%	5.3	20.8%	7.8%	13.0%	1.9%	2.67	3.37	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	77	360	67	40	20	56%	2.9	14.2%	11.9%	2.3%	6.9%	7.01	7.20	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	15	77	360	67	40	20	56%	2.9	14.2%	11.9%	2.3%	6.9%	7.01	7.20	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	15	77	360	67	40	20	56%	2.9	18.6%	11.1%	7.5%	5.6%	7.01	6.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	ATL	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	15.0%	10.5%	4.5%	3.7%	5.57	5.57	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	55	231	36	24	9	100%	6.1	15.7%	10.5%	5.1%	3.7%	5.49	5.53	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	47	198	32	21	8	100%	5.9	16.0%	10.7%	5.4%	3.8%	5.50	5.57	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	ATL	4	4	21	89	14	9	3	100%	5.2	15.7%	10.5%	5.1%	3.7%	5.49	5.53	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	ATL	4	4	26	110	18	12	4	100%	6.5	16.0%	10.7%	5.4%	3.8%	5.50	5.57	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	47	197	31	21	7	100%	5.8	15.9%	10.6%	5.3%	3.8%	5.50	5.17	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	133	90	30	100%	6.0	15.9%	10.6%	5.3%	3.8%	5.50	5.17	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		106	86	472	2003	340	186	70	81%	4.4	17.0%	9.3%	7.7%	3.5%	4.24	4.75	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	36	200	849	144	79	30	81%	4.4	17.0%	9.3%	7.7%	3.5%	4.24	4.75	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 66 IPFIP 6.15 → 7.20 (+1.05)K% 17.6% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.57%	—	×0.810	14.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.86%	—	×1.100	11.95%
HR / BF /BF	5.75%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.90%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.15 → 7.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 11 IPFIP 4.90 → 6.22 (+1.32)K% 25.5% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.53%	—	×0.770	19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.77%	—	×1.150	14.68%
HR / BF /BF	4.26%	÷1.000	×1.250	5.32%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.90 → 6.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 127 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.94 (+0.71)K% 21.0% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.03%	—	×0.810	17.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.34%	—	×1.100	8.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.934	×1.200	2.29%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 4 IPFIP 6.92 → 7.22 (+0.30)K% 14.3% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.860	12.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.05%	—	×0.900	17.14%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷0.961	×1.100	5.45%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 6.92 → 7.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAMississippi Braves · 124 IPFIP 3.41 → 4.22 (+0.81)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.12%	—	×0.810	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×1.100	11.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.906	×1.200	2.24%

Result: FIP 3.41 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Rome Braves · 121 IPFIP 3.70 → 4.62 (+0.92)K% 21.8% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.83%	—	×0.770	16.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.150	6.39%
HR / BF /BF	3.17%	÷1.022	×1.250	3.88%

Result: FIP 3.70 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Rome Braves · 10 IPFIP 2.51 → 3.09 (+0.58)K% 20.9% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.93%	—	×0.770	16.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×1.150	10.70%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.928	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.51 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAugusta GreenJackets · 6 IPFIP 4.57 → 5.42 (+0.85)K% 17.4% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.740	12.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.180	5.13%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.127	×1.300	5.02%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 4.57 → 5.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.57	15.0%	10.5%	3.7%	—	5.55	15.8%	5.2%	102	-0.02	—	—	—
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	84
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	84
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	83
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	83
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	82
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	80
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	79
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	78
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	76
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	76
Justin Miller R 2004 · 5.41 FIP	26	SP-	5.41	12.5%	10.4%	3.7%	.316	2.63	28.6%	21.7%	62	-2.78	2.63	373	76
Terance Marin R 2016 · 4.91 FIP	26	SP-	4.91	11.2%	7.7%	3.2%	.294	4.22	12.4%	7.5%	88	-0.69	3.54	322	75
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	75
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	75
Mike McCarthy R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	9.4%	9.1%	2.4%	.280	5.03	6.2%	-3.5%	37	+0.25	4.78	153	75
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	75
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	75
Asher Wojciechowski R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	27	SP	5.40	13.5%	11.0%	3.7%	.315	4.71	22.2%	14.4%	379	-0.69	3.15	678	74
Kevin Hart R 2009 · 4.93 FIP	26	SP-	4.93	13.9%	11.0%	2.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	109	74
Noah Skirrow R 2024 · 4.77 FIP	26	SP-	4.77	11.7%	11.7%	2.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	371	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	15.5%	10.6%	1.44	5.53
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*