Ian Mejia — OGILVIE

Ian Mejia P Columbus Clingstones

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%16.5%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	6	17	70	13	5	1	100%	2.8	18.6%	7.1%	11.4%	1.4%	3.78	3.22	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	6	17	70	13	5	1	100%	2.8	18.6%	7.1%	11.4%	1.4%	3.78	3.22	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	23	23	121	504	110	28	16	100%	5.3	16.8%	6.4%	10.4%	3.9%	4.69	4.62	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	23	23	121	504	110	28	16	100%	5.3	16.8%	6.4%	10.4%	3.9%	4.69	4.62	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	23	23	121	504	110	28	16	100%	5.3	21.8%	5.6%	16.3%	3.2%	4.69	3.70	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	126	544	124	59	11	96%	5.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	2.2%	3.80	4.22	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	126	544	124	59	11	96%	5.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.1%	2.2%	3.80	4.22	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	126	544	124	59	11	96%	5.0	22.8%	10.8%	11.9%	2.0%	3.80	3.67	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	131	525	109	41	10	72%	5.3	17.0%	8.1%	9.0%	2.3%	2.67	3.94	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	18	131	525	109	41	10	72%	5.3	17.0%	8.1%	9.0%	2.3%	2.67	3.94	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	18	131	525	109	41	10	72%	5.3	20.8%	7.8%	13.0%	1.9%	2.67	3.37	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	27	15	77	360	67	40	20	56%	2.9	14.2%	11.9%	2.3%	6.9%	7.01	7.20	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Columbus Clingstones	27	15	77	360	67	40	20	56%	2.9	14.2%	11.9%	2.3%	6.9%	7.01	7.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	ATL	6	0	11	47	12	6	2	0%	1.8	25.5%	12.8%	12.8%	4.3%	5.06	4.90	—
2026	26	AA RAW	ATL	21	15	66	313	55	34	18	71%	3.2	17.6%	10.9%	6.7%	5.8%	7.33	6.15	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	ATL	1	1	7	31	5	3	1	100%	7.4	16.5%	9.2%	7.3%	2.7%	4.72	4.72	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	84	391	72	43	21	—	—	18.4%	11.0%	7.5%	5.3%	6.81	6.98	-2.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	116	491	84	45	14	100%	6.1	17.1%	9.1%	7.9%	2.8%	4.70	4.71	+0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	ATL	19	19	113	477	82	44	14	100%	5.9	17.3%	9.2%	8.1%	2.9%	4.72	4.76	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	ATL	18	18	108	455	79	42	14	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.3%	8.0%	3.0%	4.80	4.87	+0.0
2030	30	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	101	428	73	41	14	100%	6.0	17.1%	9.6%	7.5%	3.2%	4.93	5.03	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	44	186	32	17	5	100%	6.3	17.1%	9.1%	7.9%	2.8%	4.70	4.71	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	ATL	11	11	67	283	49	26	8	100%	6.1	17.3%	9.2%	8.1%	2.9%	4.72	4.76	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	76	321	56	30	10	100%	5.8	17.3%	9.3%	8.0%	3.0%	4.80	4.87	+0.0
2030	30	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	79	334	57	32	11	100%	6.1	17.1%	9.6%	7.5%	3.2%	4.93	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		44	44	267	1126	194	105	34	100%	6.1	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.48	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	145	79	25	100%	6.0	17.2%	9.3%	7.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		106	86	472	2003	340	186	70	81%	4.4	17.0%	9.3%	7.7%	3.5%	4.24	4.75	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	36	200	849	144	79	30	81%	4.4	17.0%	9.3%	7.7%	3.5%	4.24	4.75	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ian Mejia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	16.5%	9.2%	2.7%	—	4.78	17.2%	8.0%	337	+0.06	—	—	—
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	86
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	85
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	84
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	84
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	83
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	83
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	83
Nick Pasquale R 2017 · 4.74 FIP	26	SP-	4.74	16.8%	12.7%	2.6%	.306	3.80	17.9%	6.3%	50	-0.94	3.19	308	83
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	83
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	82
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	82
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	82
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	82
Alex Wimmers R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	16.6%	9.7%	1.4%	.324	3.68	21.5%	12.1%	114	-0.01	3.61	230	82
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	81
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.84	17.7%	6.3%	200	+0.58	4.26	292	81
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	81
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	81
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	105	17.1%	9.3%	1.13	4.77
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Matt Manning ('24)	1.3	64	16.4%	7.8%	1.06	4.43
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36