Ian Mejia
P
Rome Emperors
+1.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.2 · 2027
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.2%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%10.1%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2027
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Rome Braves | 6 | 6 | 17 | 70 | 13 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.78 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Rome Braves | 23 | 23 | 121 | 504 | 110 | 28 | 16 | 16.8% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 4.69 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 25 | 24 | 126 | 544 | 124 | 59 | 11 | 18.7% | 11.6% | 2.2% | 3.80 | 4.18 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 25 | 18 | 131 | 525 | 109 | 41 | 10 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 2.67 | 3.95 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Rome Emperors | 3 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 97 | 46 | 14 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 127 | 535 | 105 | 48 | 15 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.24 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 102 | 47 | 14 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.47 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 102 | 47 | 14 | 19.7% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.48 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | ATL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 509 | 100 | 46 | 14 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 21 | 117 | 494 | 96 | 45 | 14 | 19.5% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 92 | 44 | 14 | 19.3% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.64 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 20 | 20 | 108 | 457 | 87 | 43 | 14 | 19.0% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 19 | 19 | 103 | 437 | 82 | 41 | 14 | 18.7% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.82 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 76 | 40 | 13 | 18.3% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.93 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 17 | 17 | 93 | 391 | 70 | 39 | 13 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.98 | 5.06 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 64 | 37 | 13 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 5.11 | 5.19 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 82 | 71 | 401 | 1671 | 297 | 145 | 46 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 3.68 | 4.19 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 35 | 200 | 833 | 148 | 72 | 23 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 3.68 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ian Mejia (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.49 | 19.6% | 10.7% | 367 | +0.01 | — | — | — |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 91 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 91 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 89 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 89 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 88 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 87 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 87 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 87 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 87 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 86 |
| David Hale R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 86 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 86 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.68 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .324 | 3.69 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 114 | +0.01 | 3.62 | 230 | 86 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 86 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .262 | 3.93 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -0.85 | 3.50 | 472 | 86 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 86 |
| David Phelps R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 86 |
| Dallas Beeler R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.45 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .301 | 7.35 | 10.0% | 1.5% | 11 | +3.90 | 3.45 | 122 | 85 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.69 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .290 | 3.66 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 57 | -1.03 | 2.39 | 396 | 85 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.0 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| Totals | $5M | $22M | +$17M | ||