Hayden Merda
P
Somerset Patriots
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 245 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 42 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 109
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
K%21.9%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP42
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 21 | 20 | 96 | 440 | 96 | 57 | 10 | 95% | 4.6 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 6.21 | 5.06 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 21 | 20 | 96 | 440 | 96 | 57 | 10 | 95% | 4.6 | 21.8% | 13.0% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 6.21 | 4.24 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 1 | 54 | 233 | 64 | 32 | 6 | 2% | 1.2 | 21.5% | 15.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 4.00 | 4.98 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 1 | 54 | 233 | 64 | 32 | 6 | 2% | 1.2 | 27.5% | 13.7% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 4.00 | 3.95 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 25 | 0 | 33 | 136 | 55 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 32.8% | 9.7% | 23.1% | 3.5% | 3.86 | 3.50 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYY | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 75 | 313 | 94 | 33 | 9 | — | — | 30.0% | 10.6% | 19.3% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.9% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 39 | 0 | 41 | 175 | 39 | 21 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.80 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 0 | 16 | 69 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.42 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 98 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 90 | 21 | 182 | 809 | 166 | 116 | 23 | 23% | 2.0 | 20.5% | 14.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 4.77 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 99 | 23 | 200 | 887 | 182 | 128 | 26 | 23% | 2.0 | 20.5% | 14.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Merda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.80 | 22.1% | 10.2% | 41 | -0.01 | — | — | — |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 87 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 87 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 84 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 83 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 83 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 83 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.89 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.2% | .310 | 4.58 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.69 | 3.89 | 272 | 83 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 83 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.62 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 1.8% | .291 | 6.27 | 19.1% | -8.3% | 16 | +2.65 | 3.05 | 134 | 83 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.90 | 3.16 | 377 | 82 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 82 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 82 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.21 | 13.5% | -4.3% | 15 | -0.15 | 3.58 | 169 | 82 |
| Spencer Stockton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .276 | 5.42 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 63 | +1.23 | 1.93 | 233 | 82 |
| Eduard Santos R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 22.2% | 14.4% | 1.8% | .248 | 2.04 | 31.1% | 18.7% | 16 | -1.99 | 2.04 | 138 | 82 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 82 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.03 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.5% | .274 | 6.73 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.70 | 4.95 | 183 | 82 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 42 | 22.0% | 11.9% | 1.18 | 4.80 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |