Hayden Merda

P Somerset Patriots

Age 27 RHP 6'6" / 245 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	ANYY	21	20	96	6.21	4.24	21.8%	13.0%	—	K 16.1% · BB 15.3% · FIP 5.17
2025	25	MIX2 levels	44	1	54	4.00	3.95	27.5%	13.7%	—	K 21.5% · BB 15.4% · FIP 4.97
2026	26	MIX2 levels	42	2	54	4.53	3.38	36.0%	13.4%	—	K 29.5% · BB 13.7% · FIP 4.20
2027PROJ	27	MLBNYY	1	0	1	4.72	4.72	26.5%	13.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBNYY	11	0	12	4.73	4.76	26.0%	13.4%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsPeyton Gray (age 26) · Jacob Bosiokovic (age 27) · Beck Wheeler (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%26.5%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	21	20	96	440	96	57	10	95%	4.6	16.1%	15.3%	0.9%	2.7%	6.21	5.17	—
2023	23	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	21	20	96	440	96	57	10	95%	4.6	21.8%	13.0%	8.9%	2.3%	6.21	4.24	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	54	233	64	32	6	2%	1.2	21.5%	15.4%	6.1%	3.2%	4.00	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	54	233	64	32	6	2%	1.2	21.5%	15.4%	6.1%	3.2%	4.00	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	54	233	64	32	6	2%	1.2	27.5%	13.7%	13.7%	2.6%	4.00	3.95	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	2	54	239	86	32	7	5%	1.3	29.5%	13.7%	15.8%	3.4%	4.53	4.20	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	2	54	239	86	32	7	5%	1.3	29.5%	13.7%	15.8%	3.4%	4.53	4.20	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	2	54	239	86	32	7	5%	1.3	36.0%	13.4%	22.6%	2.9%	4.53	3.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	NYY	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	26.5%	13.7%	12.8%	3.2%	4.72	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYY	30	0	31	131	34	18	4	0%	1.0	26.0%	13.4%	12.6%	3.2%	4.73	4.76	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYY	11	0	12	51	13	7	2	0%	1.1	26.0%	13.4%	12.6%	3.2%	4.73	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	49	13	7	2	0%	1.1	26.0%	13.4%	12.6%	3.2%	4.73	4.38	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	223	120	34	0%	1.1	26.0%	13.4%	12.6%	3.2%	4.73	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		107	23	203	912	192	136	27	21%	1.9	21.0%	14.9%	6.1%	3.0%	5.18	4.86	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	23	200	897	189	134	27	21%	1.9	21.0%	14.9%	6.1%	3.0%	5.18	4.86	-0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASomerset Patriots · 42 IPFIP 2.58 → 3.57 (+0.99)K% 37.6% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.64%	—	×0.810	30.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.24%	—	×1.100	12.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.25%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.70%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.58 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 12 IPFIP 5.66 → 6.05 (+0.39)K% 31.1% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.15%	—	×0.860	26.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	19.67%	—	×0.900	17.70%
HR / BF /BF	4.92%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.41%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.66 → 6.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 29 IPFIP 2.83 → 4.09 (+1.26)K% 34.7% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.68%	—	×0.770	26.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.48%	—	×1.150	12.06%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷0.969	×1.250	3.12%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASomerset Patriots · 25 IPFIP 5.19 → 5.97 (+0.78)K% 19.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.27%	—	×0.810	15.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	17.43%	—	×1.100	19.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.030	×1.200	3.21%

Result: FIP 5.19 → 5.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ATampa Tarpons · 96 IPFIP 4.15 → 5.17 (+1.02)K% 21.8% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.82%	—	×0.740	16.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.95%	—	×1.180	15.29%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.086	×1.300	2.72%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 4.15 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Merda (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	26.5%	13.7%	3.2%	—	4.76	26.0%	12.6%	31	+0.04	—	—	—
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	84
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	82
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	80
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	79
Cristofer Ogando R 2021 · 4.83 FIP	27	SU	4.83	26.8%	10.9%	4.8%	.281	4.90	20.6%	9.0%	53	+0.07	3.23	179	78
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	78
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	77
Ryan Garton R 2017 · 3.67 FIP	27	SU	3.67	25.2%	11.3%	2.3%	.252	4.15	23.5%	10.8%	108	+0.48	3.14	307	77
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	77
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	77
Kiko Calero R 2003 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	31.5%	11.1%	3.1%	.273	3.11	26.1%	18.9%	159	-0.43	2.27	298	77
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	77
Chaz Roe R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	25.3%	10.5%	3.1%	.259	2.81	24.6%	16.2%	133	-1.21	1.72	279	77
Anthony Varvaro R 2012 · 3.66 FIP	27	SU	3.66	27.6%	10.5%	2.8%	.311	3.30	17.7%	11.0%	139	-0.36	3.02	208	76
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	76
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	76
Matt Blackham R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	25.4%	12.0%	2.6%	.206	6.85	26.9%	8.7%	25	+2.95	2.08	187	76
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	76
Nelson L. Alvarez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	23.2%	13.1%	2.4%	.282	4.70	18.5%	9.4%	35	+0.58	2.58	233	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	26.3%	13.5%	1.24	4.72
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Amir Garrett ('24)	1.7	55	26.7%	13.3%	1.52	4.95
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*