Hayden Merda — OGILVIE

Hayden Merda P Somerset Patriots

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 245 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%20.5%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%6.0%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	21	20	96	440	96	57	10	95%	4.6	16.1%	15.3%	0.9%	2.7%	6.21	5.17	—
2023	23	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	21	20	96	440	96	57	10	95%	4.6	16.1%	15.3%	0.9%	2.7%	6.21	5.17	—
2023	23	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	21	20	96	440	96	57	10	95%	4.6	21.8%	13.0%	8.9%	2.3%	6.21	4.24	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	54	233	64	32	6	2%	1.2	21.5%	15.4%	6.1%	3.2%	4.00	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	1	54	233	64	32	6	2%	1.2	21.5%	15.4%	6.1%	3.2%	4.00	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	1	54	233	64	32	6	2%	1.2	27.5%	13.7%	13.7%	2.6%	4.00	3.95	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	40	2	52	228	85	28	6	5%	1.3	30.4%	12.8%	17.5%	3.1%	4.13	3.84	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	40	2	52	228	85	28	6	5%	1.3	30.4%	12.8%	17.5%	3.1%	4.13	3.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	NYY	32	0	42	178	67	20	4	0%	1.3	37.6%	11.2%	26.4%	2.2%	3.67	2.58	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	NYY	8	2	11	50	18	8	2	25%	1.3	36.0%	16.0%	20.0%	4.0%	5.91	4.28	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYY	48	0	50	213	44	30	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.1%	6.7%	3.1%	5.18	5.19	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYY	47	0	49	207	43	29	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.9%	7.0%	3.2%	5.17	5.21	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYY	18	0	19	80	17	11	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.1%	6.7%	3.1%	5.18	5.19	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYY	28	0	29	122	26	17	4	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.9%	7.0%	3.2%	5.17	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		46	0	48	203	42	28	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.9%	6.9%	3.1%	5.17	4.83	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	116	25	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.9%	6.9%	3.1%	5.17	4.83	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		105	23	202	901	190	132	26	22%	1.9	21.1%	14.7%	6.4%	2.9%	5.08	4.78	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		104	23	200	892	188	131	26	22%	1.9	21.1%	14.7%	6.4%	2.9%	5.08	4.78	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Merda (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	20.5%	14.5%	3.0%	—	5.20	20.8%	6.8%	100	-0.05	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	87
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	85
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.49	22.0%	11.9%	189	-0.45	3.35	250	84
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	83
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	83
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	83
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	82
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	82
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	82
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	82
Alec Barger R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	25	SU	4.44	21.5%	14.4%	2.4%	.326	4.67	18.6%	7.5%	79	+0.23	3.85	242	82
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	82
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	81
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	20.7%	14.1%	1.20	5.20
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78