Hayden Merda
P
Somerset Patriots
+0.1
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'6" / 245 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.81
FIP4.81
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.9%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%9.9%
IP60
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 21 | 20 | 96 | 440 | 96 | 57 | 10 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 6.21 | 5.20 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 44 | 1 | 54 | 233 | 64 | 32 | 6 | 21.5% | 15.4% | 3.2% | 4.00 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 4 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | NYY | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 56 | 31 | 8 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.81 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 65 | 275 | 63 | 33 | 9 | 22.7% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 56 | 30 | 8 | 22.1% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 59 | — | 59 | 247 | 55 | 29 | 8 | 22.2% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 53 | 28 | 8 | 22.1% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 51 | 27 | 7 | 21.9% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 49 | 27 | 7 | 21.7% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 47 | 26 | 7 | 21.4% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 44 | 25 | 7 | 21.1% | 12.1% | 3.4% | 5.04 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 41 | 24 | 7 | 20.8% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 5.14 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 35 | 22 | 6 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 5.46 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 21 | 155 | 695 | 128 | 105 | 21 | 18.4% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 5.46 | 5.09 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 27 | 200 | 897 | 165 | 135 | 27 | 18.4% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 5.46 | 5.09 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Hayden Merda (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.78 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 175 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 92 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 92 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 90 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 87 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 22.8% | 12.7% | 2.0% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 176 | 87 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 87 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 87 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 87 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 87 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 87 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.94 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.64 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.70 | 3.84 | 272 | 86 |
| Nick Ernst R 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.04 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.5% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 117 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 86 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 86 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 86 |
| Hunter Parsons R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 22.8% | 10.9% | 4.3% | .274 | 6.70 | 25.5% | 9.0% | 29 | +1.77 | 4.76 | 183 | 86 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .300 | 3.68 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.92 | 3.09 | 377 | 85 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .211 | 4.46 | 24.6% | 14.3% | 98 | +0.20 | 4.26 | 258 | 85 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 85 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.