Amir Garrett

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 35 LHP 6'5" / 239 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	31	MIX2 levels	35	0	32	4.26	6.57	22.8%	19.5%	-0.7	K 25.0% · BB 17.9% · FIP 5.37
2024	32	MIX2 levels	32	2	39	5.08	3.95	30.9%	12.0%	0.3	K 24.5% · BB 9.5% · FIP 4.50
2025	33	MIX3 levels	10	1	11	7.36	4.01	30.4%	8.7%	—	K 30.4% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.02
2026	34	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	35	MLBTOR	15	0	16	4.30	4.33	23.8%	9.3%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	36	MLBTOR	1	0	1	4.54	4.69	22.8%	9.9%	-0.0
2029PROJMLE	37	MLBTOR	—	—	0	4.87	5.09	21.7%	10.5%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsHisanori Takahashi (age 35) · Heriberto Ruelas (age 35) · Tim Byrdak (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.30

FIP4.33

K%23.8%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP165

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	A+ MLE	Daytona Tortugas	26	26	140	575	133	55	4	100%	5.4	17.8%	11.0%	6.8%	0.8%	2.44	3.45	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	Daytona Tortugas	26	26	140	575	133	55	4	100%	5.4	23.1%	9.6%	13.6%	0.7%	2.44	2.75	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	145	585	132	56	6	92%	5.8	18.9%	10.3%	8.6%	1.3%	2.55	3.51	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	145	585	132	56	6	92%	5.8	22.6%	9.6%	13.0%	1.0%	2.55	2.98	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	138	623	124	62	30	93%	4.6	18.7%	10.1%	8.6%	4.6%	6.57	5.33	+0.1
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	138	623	124	62	30	93%	4.6	19.9%	10.0%	10.0%	4.8%	6.57	5.47	-0.1
2018	26	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	66	0	63	264	71	22	8	0%	1.0	26.9%	8.3%	18.6%	2.8%	4.29	3.42	+0.8
2018	26	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	66	0	63	264	71	22	8	0%	1.0	26.9%	8.3%	18.6%	3.0%	4.29	3.54	+0.8
2019	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	69	0	56	246	78	34	7	0%	0.8	31.7%	13.8%	17.9%	2.6%	3.21	3.62	+0.6
2019	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	69	0	56	246	78	34	7	0%	0.8	31.7%	13.8%	17.9%	2.8%	3.21	3.76	+0.5
2020	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	21	0	18	69	26	7	4	0%	0.9	37.7%	10.1%	27.5%	5.4%	2.45	4.15	+0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	21	0	18	69	26	7	4	0%	0.9	37.7%	10.1%	27.5%	5.8%	2.45	4.25	+0.1
2021	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	63	0	48	215	61	25	9	0%	0.8	28.4%	11.6%	16.7%	3.9%	6.04	4.30	+0.1
2021	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	63	0	48	215	61	25	9	0%	0.8	28.4%	11.6%	16.7%	4.2%	6.04	4.57	-0.0
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	47	203	50	32	0	0%	0.8	25.0%	16.3%	8.7%	0.0%	4.75	3.06	+0.8
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	47	203	50	32	0	0%	0.8	24.6%	15.8%	8.9%	0.0%	4.75	3.02	+0.9
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	32	149	34	29	7	0%	0.9	25.0%	17.9%	7.1%	3.9%	4.26	5.37	-0.3
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	32	149	34	29	7	0%	0.9	22.8%	19.5%	3.4%	4.7%	4.26	6.57	-0.7
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	39	175	54	21	6	6%	1.2	24.5%	9.5%	15.0%	4.1%	5.08	4.50	+0.0
2024	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	2	39	175	54	21	6	6%	1.2	24.5%	9.5%	15.0%	4.1%	5.08	4.50	+0.0
2024	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	2	39	175	54	21	6	6%	1.2	30.9%	12.0%	18.9%	3.4%	5.08	3.95	+0.3
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	1	11	46	14	4	2	10%	1.1	30.4%	8.7%	21.7%	4.3%	7.36	4.02	—
2025	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	10	1	11	46	14	4	2	10%	1.1	30.4%	8.7%	21.7%	4.3%	7.36	4.02	—
2025	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	10	1	11	46	14	4	2	10%	1.1	30.4%	8.7%	21.7%	4.3%	7.36	4.01	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			328	14	331	1447	387	183	56	4%	1.0	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	3.9%	4.95	4.62	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	TOR	15	0	16	68	16	6	2	0%	1.1	23.8%	9.3%	14.5%	3.1%	4.30	4.33	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	TOR	112	0	117	495	113	49	17	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.4%	4.54	4.69	-0.2
2029	37	MLB MLE	TOR	83	0	87	366	79	38	14	0%	1.0	21.7%	10.5%	11.2%	3.9%	4.87	5.09	-0.5
2028	36	MLB CTX	TOR	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.9%	12.9%	3.4%	4.54	4.69	-0.0
2029	37	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	10.5%	11.2%	3.9%	4.87	5.09	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		329	14	332	1452	388	183	56	4%	1.0	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	3.9%	4.95	4.57	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	8	200	875	234	110	34	4%	1.0	26.7%	12.6%	14.1%	3.9%	4.95	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		439	80	737	3150	711	355	82	18%	1.7	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	2.6%	4.13	4.05	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	22	200	854	193	96	22	18%	1.7	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	2.6%	4.13	4.05	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 5 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.19 (+0.09)K% 27.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.860	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×0.900	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.847	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 34 IPFIP 3.85 → 4.50 (+0.64)K% 28.5% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.48%	—	×0.860	24.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.60%	—	×0.900	9.54%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷0.886	×1.100	4.11%

Result: FIP 3.85 → 4.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 7 IPFIP 9.26 → 9.42 (+0.15)K% 16.2% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.22%	—	×0.860	13.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.32%	—	×0.900	21.89%
HR / BF /BF	8.11%	÷1.037	×1.100	8.60%

Result: FIP 9.26 → 9.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAALouisville Bats · 68 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.00 (+0.33)K% 20.2% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.20%	—	×0.880	17.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.95%	—	×1.050	8.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.32%	÷1.042	×1.100	2.45%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 77 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.59 (+0.51)K% 25.1% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.08%	—	×0.810	20.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.68%	—	×1.100	9.55%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.924	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAALouisville Bats · 68 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.54 (+0.56)K% 19.7% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.71%	—	×0.880	17.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.58%	—	×1.050	11.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷0.882	×1.100	2.73%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Daytona Tortugas · 140 IPFIP 2.74 → 3.45 (+0.70)K% 23.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.13%	—	×0.770	17.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.57%	—	×1.150	11.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.70%	÷1.047	×1.250	0.83%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.74 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Amir Garrett (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.86	22.3%	12.2%	204	+0.53	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	76
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	49
Tim Byrdak L 2009 · 5.07 FIP	35	SU	5.07	22.2%	13.8%	3.8%	.185	3.48	23.8%	13.5%	107	-1.59	2.85	320	46
Brian Shouse L 2004 · 3.47 FIP	35	SU	3.47	18.5%	8.2%	1.6%	.250	3.57	14.8%	8.9%	139	+0.10	2.32	339	46
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	45
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	44
Raul Valdes L 2013 · 4.07 FIP	35	SU	4.07	24.3%	5.3%	4.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	160	44
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	42
Hideki Okajima L 2010 · 4.27 FIP	34	SU	4.27	15.5%	7.0%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	238	41
John Bale L 2009 · 4.31 FIP	35	SU	4.31	17.6%	11.8%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	38
Scott Rice L 2015 · 3.67 FIP	33	SU	3.67	22.9%	17.2%	0.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	34
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	29
Luke Westphal L 2024 · 5.19 FIP	35	SW	5.19	15.7%	16.4%	2.4%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	27
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	26
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	26
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	26
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	24
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	24
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	24
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	23

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	78	24.8%	11.5%	1.40	4.72
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59
Tony Cingrani ('18)	1.7	56	25.8%	11.3%	1.26	4.01
Justin Grimm ('22)	1.9	75	23.0%	10.1%	1.17	5.10