Nelson L. Alvarez
P
Reading Fightin Phils
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%22.4%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%11.9%
ROS IP24
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 15.4% | 23.1% | -7.7% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 4.72 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 15.4% | 23.1% | -7.7% | 0.0% | 6.75 | 4.97 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 30 | 0 | 40 | 200 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.8% | 18.4% | -2.6% | 5.6% | 8.55 | 7.19 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 30 | 0 | 40 | 200 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.5% | 16.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 8.55 | 6.38 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 35 | 0 | 54 | 225 | 65 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 22.2% | 16.4% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 2.85 | 4.18 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 35 | 0 | 54 | 225 | 65 | 32 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.9% | 14.2% | 14.7% | 1.3% | 2.85 | 3.19 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 53 | 221 | 79 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.6% | 10.6% | 18.0% | 0.9% | 3.59 | 2.53 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 53 | 221 | 79 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 35.7% | 9.5% | 26.2% | 0.9% | 3.59 | 1.79 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 62 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 3.48 | 4.09 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 62 | 29 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.2% | 13.2% | 15.0% | 2.3% | 3.48 | 3.64 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 28 | 0 | 35 | 158 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 5.19 | 4.63 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 28 | 0 | 35 | 158 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.8% | 8.2% | 14.6% | 3.2% | 5.19 | 4.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 23 | 0 | 24 | 103 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 0 | 23 | 99 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.23 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 191 | 82 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 179 | 0 | 235 | 1037 | 227 | 145 | 27 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.47 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 0 | 200 | 881 | 193 | 124 | 23 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 4.51 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nelson L. Alvarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.61 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 23 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 85 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 85 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 85 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 83 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 83 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 82 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 82 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 82 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 82 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 82 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 82 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 81 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .271 | 2.99 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.51 | 544 | 81 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 81 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 81 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 80 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 80 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 80 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.72 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 125 | 80 |