Nelson L. Alvarez

Nelson L. Alvarez P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.60

FIP4.60

K%21.5%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	3	0	3	13	2	3	0	0%	0.9	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	0.0%	6.75	4.72	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	3	0	3	13	2	3	0	0%	0.9	15.4%	23.1%	-7.7%	0.0%	6.75	4.97	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	30	0	40	200	41	32	9	0%	1.3	15.8%	18.4%	-2.6%	5.6%	8.55	7.19	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	30	0	40	200	41	32	9	0%	1.3	20.5%	16.0%	4.5%	4.5%	8.55	6.38	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	35	0	54	225	65	32	3	0%	1.5	22.2%	16.4%	5.9%	1.6%	2.85	4.20	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	35	0	54	225	65	32	3	0%	1.5	28.9%	14.2%	14.7%	1.3%	2.85	3.19	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	53	221	79	21	2	0%	1.2	28.6%	10.6%	18.0%	1.0%	3.59	2.58	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	53	221	79	21	2	0%	1.2	28.6%	10.6%	18.0%	1.0%	3.59	2.58	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	53	221	79	21	2	0%	1.2	35.7%	9.5%	26.2%	0.9%	3.59	1.79	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	52	220	62	29	5	0%	1.3	23.0%	13.1%	9.9%	2.4%	3.48	4.14	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	52	220	62	29	5	0%	1.3	23.0%	13.1%	9.9%	2.4%	3.48	4.14	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	52	220	62	29	5	0%	1.3	28.2%	13.2%	15.0%	2.3%	3.48	3.64	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	28	0	35	158	36	13	5	0%	1.2	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	3.7%	5.19	4.70	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	28	0	35	158	36	13	5	0%	1.2	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	3.7%	5.19	4.70	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	28	0	35	158	36	13	5	0%	1.2	22.8%	8.2%	14.6%	3.2%	5.19	4.02	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	28	MLB	PHI	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.5%	11.0%	2.9%	4.60	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	22	0	23	99	21	10	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	3.1%	4.65	4.70	-0.0
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	7	0	7	30	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	3.1%	4.65	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	7	3	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	3.1%	4.65	4.32	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	82	27	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	3.1%	4.65	4.32	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		179	0	235	1037	226	143	28	0%	1.3	21.8%	13.8%	8.0%	2.7%	4.51	4.50	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		152	0	200	881	192	122	24	0%	1.3	21.8%	13.8%	8.0%	2.7%	4.51	4.50	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nelson L. Alvarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	21.5%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.70	21.5%	10.9%	23	+0.10	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	84
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	84
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	84
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	83
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	83
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	82
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	82
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	82
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	82
Michael Mariot R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	22.6%	9.0%	2.1%	.327	4.79	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.28	2.40	676	81
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	81
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	81
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	80
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	80
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	80