Nelson L. Alvarez
P
Reading Fightin Phils
+0.2
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%11.9%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 30 | 0 | 40 | 200 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 15.8% | 18.4% | 5.6% | 8.55 | 7.19 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 35 | 0 | 54 | 225 | 65 | 32 | 3 | 22.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | 2.85 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | 44 | 0 | 53 | 221 | 79 | 21 | 2 | 28.6% | 10.6% | 1.0% | 3.59 | 2.59 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 39 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 62 | 29 | 5 | 23.4% | 14.2% | 2.4% | 3.48 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 28 | 0 | 35 | 158 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 18.5% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 5.19 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 22.3% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 21.9% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 21.6% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 179 | 0 | 235 | 1037 | 227 | 145 | 28 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 152 | 0 | 200 | 881 | 193 | 123 | 24 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.53 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nelson L. Alvarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.60 | 22.3% | 11.8% | 99 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 87 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 86 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 85 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 83 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 83 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 83 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 82 |
| Rob Scahill R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 82 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 81 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 81 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 81 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 81 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 81 |
| David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 80 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 283 | 80 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.52 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .327 | 4.82 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.30 | 2.39 | 676 | 80 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 80 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 80 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 80 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.