Ike Buxton — OGILVIE

Ike Buxton P FCL Nationals

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 34 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 122

ERA5.55

FIP5.55

K%15.3%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%-0.2%

ROS IP34

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	3	0	5	24	5	8	0	0%	1.6	20.8%	33.3%	-12.5%	0.0%	9.64	5.56	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	3	0	5	24	5	8	0	0%	1.6	20.8%	33.3%	-12.5%	0.0%	9.64	6.10	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	13	77	325	73	43	4	65%	3.9	16.8%	15.2%	1.6%	1.9%	2.45	4.67	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	13	77	325	73	43	4	65%	3.9	16.8%	15.2%	1.6%	1.9%	2.45	4.67	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	13	77	325	73	43	4	65%	3.9	22.5%	13.2%	9.2%	1.2%	2.45	3.55	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	77	370	74	42	5	100%	4.1	15.4%	13.1%	2.3%	1.8%	5.35	4.45	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	77	370	74	42	5	100%	4.1	15.4%	13.1%	2.3%	1.8%	5.35	4.45	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	77	370	74	42	5	100%	4.1	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	1.4%	5.35	3.66	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	7	46	215	38	37	2	44%	2.9	13.8%	19.3%	-5.5%	1.1%	5.12	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	7	46	215	38	37	2	44%	2.9	13.8%	19.3%	-5.5%	1.1%	5.12	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	7	46	215	38	37	2	44%	2.9	17.7%	17.2%	0.5%	0.9%	5.12	4.44	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	10	0	13	69	10	13	3	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	7.43	—	—
YTD	26	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	10	0	13	69	10	13	3	0%	1.3	—	—	—	—	7.43	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	ROK RAW	WSH	6	0	9	44	8	7	0	0%	1.5	18.2%	15.9%	2.3%	0.0%	5.00	3.58	—
2026	26	A RAW	WSH	4	0	4	25	2	6	3	0%	1.1	8.0%	24.0%	-16.0%	12.0%	12.46	12.05	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	65	0	69	290	47	44	8	0%	1.1	16.1%	15.0%	1.1%	2.6%	5.45	5.47	-0.7
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	63	0	66	281	46	41	8	0%	1.1	16.6%	14.7%	1.8%	2.8%	5.42	5.47	-0.7
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	60	0	64	268	45	39	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	14.7%	2.0%	2.9%	5.47	5.54	-0.7
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	24	0	25	106	17	16	3	0%	1.0	16.1%	15.0%	1.1%	2.6%	5.45	5.47	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	37	0	39	165	27	24	5	0%	1.1	16.6%	14.7%	1.8%	2.8%	5.42	5.47	-0.4
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	43	0	45	190	32	28	6	0%	1.0	16.7%	14.7%	2.0%	2.9%	5.47	5.54	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		103	0	109	458	76	68	13	0%	1.1	16.5%	14.8%	1.7%	2.8%	5.45	5.12	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	125	24	0%	1.1	16.5%	14.8%	1.7%	2.8%	5.45	5.12	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		68	39	218	1003	156	160	18	57%	3.2	15.6%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.8%	4.50	4.81	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	36	200	920	143	147	17	57%	3.2	15.6%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.8%	4.50	4.81	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ike Buxton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.55	15.3%	15.6%	2.5%	—	5.49	16.4%	1.6%	199	-0.06	—	—	—
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	89
Joe Record R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	16.6%	15.3%	2.2%	.236	3.59	20.3%	8.6%	172	-1.23	2.64	280	80
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	78
Holt Jones R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	16.1%	17.9%	1.9%	.285	4.01	21.7%	7.0%	161	-1.05	3.37	241	77
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	75
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	74
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	74
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	74
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	74
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	73
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	73
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	73
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	72
Lucas Erceg R 2021 · 5.61 FIP	26	SP-	5.61	17.1%	18.1%	3.0%	.258	3.37	25.0%	13.8%	193	-2.24	2.10	346	72
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	71
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	71
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	71
Michael Murray R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.2%	12.9%	2.0%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	116	71
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	70
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	58	16.3%	14.9%	1.06	5.46
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91