Ike Buxton

P FCL Nationals

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+MIA	19	19	77	5.35	3.66	20.0%	11.4%	—	K 15.4% · BB 13.1% · FIP 4.45
2025	25	MIX2 levels	16	7	46	5.12	4.44	17.7%	17.2%	—	K 13.8% · BB 19.3% · FIP 4.97
2026	26	MIX2 levels	10	0	13	7.43	7.45	14.5%	18.8%	—	K 14.5% · BB 18.8% · FIP 6.65
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	—	—	0	5.54	5.54	16.5%	15.3%	—
2028PROJ36% MLB	28	MLBWSH	2	2	9	5.47	5.50	17.1%	14.8%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsLuis Niebla (age 26) · Paul Clemens (age 27) · Alfonso Sanchez (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%16.5%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%1.2%

Proj IP32

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	3	0	5	24	5	8	0	0%	1.6	20.8%	33.3%	-12.5%	0.0%	9.64	5.56	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	3	0	5	24	5	8	0	0%	1.6	20.8%	33.3%	-12.5%	0.0%	9.64	6.10	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	13	77	325	73	43	4	65%	3.9	16.8%	15.2%	1.6%	1.9%	2.45	4.67	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	13	77	325	73	43	4	65%	3.9	22.5%	13.2%	9.2%	1.2%	2.45	3.55	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	77	370	74	42	5	100%	4.1	15.4%	13.1%	2.3%	1.8%	5.35	4.45	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	77	370	74	42	5	100%	4.1	15.4%	13.1%	2.3%	1.8%	5.35	4.45	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Beloit Sky Carp	19	19	77	370	74	42	5	100%	4.1	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	1.4%	5.35	3.66	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	7	46	215	38	37	2	44%	2.9	13.8%	19.3%	-5.5%	1.1%	5.12	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	7	46	215	38	37	2	44%	2.9	13.8%	19.3%	-5.5%	1.1%	5.12	4.97	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	7	46	215	38	37	2	44%	2.9	17.7%	17.2%	0.5%	0.9%	5.12	4.44	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	69	10	13	3	0%	1.3	14.5%	18.8%	-4.3%	4.3%	7.43	6.65	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	69	10	13	3	0%	1.3	14.5%	18.8%	-4.3%	4.3%	7.43	6.65	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	13	69	10	13	3	0%	1.3	14.5%	18.8%	-4.3%	4.3%	7.43	7.45	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.5%	15.3%	1.2%	2.8%	5.54	5.54	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	4	4	25	107	18	16	3	100%	6.3	17.1%	14.8%	2.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.50	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	2	2	9	38	6	6	1	100%	4.5	17.1%	14.8%	2.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.50	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	9	39	7	6	1	100%	4.6	17.1%	14.8%	2.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.12	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	152	130	22	100%	6.0	17.1%	14.8%	2.2%	2.9%	5.47	5.12	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		68	39	218	1003	156	160	18	57%	3.2	15.6%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.8%	4.50	4.81	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	36	200	920	143	147	17	57%	3.2	15.6%	16.0%	-0.4%	1.8%	4.50	4.81	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Nationals · 9 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.57 (+1.00)K% 18.2% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.680	12.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.91%	—	×1.250	19.89%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 4 IPFIP 12.05 → 14.75 (+2.70)K% 8.0% → 5.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	8.00%	—	×0.740	5.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	24.00%	—	×1.180	28.32%
HR / BF /BF	12.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	15.60%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 12.05 → 14.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 26 IPFIP 3.17 → 4.02 (+0.84)K% 24.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.56%	—	×0.770	18.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.16%	—	×1.150	15.13%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷1.006	×1.250	1.09%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.17 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 20 IPFIP 5.57 → 6.05 (+0.48)K% 9.9% → 8.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	9.90%	—	×0.810	8.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.78%	—	×1.100	23.96%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷1.103	×1.200	1.08%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 5.57 → 6.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 77 IPFIP 3.59 → 4.45 (+0.85)K% 20.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.770	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.35%	—	×1.150	13.05%
HR / BF /BF	1.35%	÷0.935	×1.250	1.81%

Result: FIP 3.59 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 39 IPFIP 2.99 → 4.12 (+1.13)K% 28.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.75%	—	×0.740	21.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.62%	—	×1.180	18.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.62%	÷0.924	×1.300	0.88%

Result: FIP 2.99 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 34 IPFIP 4.18 → 5.27 (+1.08)K% 15.5% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.54%	—	×0.770	11.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.14%	—	×1.150	11.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.03%	÷0.817	×1.250	3.10%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 5.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Marlins · 5 IPFIP 5.56 → 7.18 (+1.62)K% 20.8% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.680	14.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	33.33%	—	×1.250	41.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.852	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 5.56 → 7.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ike Buxton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	16.5%	15.3%	2.8%	—	5.50	17.1%	2.2%	25	-0.04	—	—	—
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	77
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	345	77
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	75
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	75
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	74
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	73
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	73
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	72
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	72
Jon Leicester R 2007 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP-	4.44	11.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	72
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	72
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	71
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	71
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	71
Jared Fernandez R 2001 · 4.66 FIP	29	SW	4.66	8.8%	10.5%	1.8%	.267	3.95	14.0%	5.6%	89	-0.71	3.57	101	71
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	70
Aldo Montes R 2017 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.4%	8.5%	3.3%	.322	4.69	18.2%	7.6%	75	-0.27	4.69	210	70
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	70
Michael Murray R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.2%	12.9%	2.0%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	116	69
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	16.8%	15.1%	1.09	5.51
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*