Ike Buxton
P
Beloit Sky Carp
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 208 lbs
A+
ERA4.96
FIP4.96
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.7%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%5.5%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.64 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 20 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 73 | 43 | 4 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 1.9% | 2.45 | 4.66 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 19 | 19 | 77 | 370 | 74 | 42 | 5 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 1.8% | 5.35 | 4.43 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 16 | 7 | 46 | 215 | 38 | 37 | 2 | 13.8% | 19.3% | 1.1% | 5.12 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 39 | 27 | 5 | 18.7% | 13.2% | 2.5% | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 40 | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 12.8% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 40 | 26 | 5 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 2.7% | 4.88 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIA | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 39 | 25 | 5 | 19.6% | 12.5% | 2.7% | 4.89 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 37 | 24 | 5 | 19.4% | 12.5% | 2.8% | 4.92 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 36 | 24 | 5 | 19.2% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.99 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 34 | 23 | 5 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 32 | 22 | 5 | 18.6% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 5.15 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 30 | 21 | 5 | 18.3% | 13.2% | 3.1% | 5.25 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 27 | 20 | 5 | 17.9% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 5.37 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 25 | 19 | 5 | 17.4% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 5.50 | 5.58 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 39 | 205 | 934 | 146 | 147 | 15 | 15.7% | 15.7% | 1.6% | 4.31 | 4.67 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 38 | 200 | 913 | 143 | 144 | 15 | 15.7% | 15.7% | 1.6% | 4.31 | 4.67 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ike Buxton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 18.7% | 13.2% | 2.5% | — | 4.90 | 19.4% | 6.8% | 144 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Justin Courtney R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.14 | 16.8% | 12.8% | 3.3% | .331 | 8.65 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 21 | +3.51 | 4.59 | 108 | 89 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.93 | 17.2% | 13.2% | 1.1% | .266 | 3.83 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 62 | -0.10 | 3.31 | 159 | 88 |
| Derek Eitel R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 88 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2028 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 88 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.00 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .306 | 3.65 | 20.1% | 13.5% | 54 | -0.35 | 2.94 | 157 | 87 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 87 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .292 | 4.93 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +0.96 | 3.84 | 299 | 86 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 86 |
| Rene Coss R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.09 | 16.7% | 13.9% | 1.2% | .250 | 4.78 | 13.0% | 2.1% | 82 | +0.69 | 3.87 | 123 | 86 |
| Jake Johansen R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.68 | 15.9% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.64 | 12.8% | 4.9% | 48 | -1.04 | 3.64 | 162 | 86 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.83 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.07 | 1.61 | 124 | 86 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 86 |
| Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 85 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.65 | 18.2% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 183 | 85 |
| Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.3% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 85 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 85 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2025 · 4.54 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.54 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 84 |
| Bayden Root R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 102 | 84 |
| David Holman R 2027 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .324 | 5.48 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.00 | 5.37 | 129 | 84 |
| Guido Knudson R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.70 | 17.5% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 106 | 84 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.