Ike Buxton
P
FCL Nationals
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 208 lbs
ROK
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION12 act + 34 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.98
FIP4.98
K%18.7%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%5.5%
ROS IP34
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.8% | 33.3% | -12.5% | 0.0% | 9.64 | 5.56 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Marlins | 3 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.8% | 33.3% | -12.5% | 0.0% | 9.64 | 6.10 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 73 | 43 | 4 | 65% | 3.9 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.45 | 4.93 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 13 | 77 | 325 | 73 | 43 | 4 | 65% | 3.9 | 22.5% | 13.2% | 9.2% | 1.2% | 2.45 | 3.55 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 19 | 19 | 77 | 370 | 74 | 42 | 5 | 100% | 4.1 | 15.4% | 13.1% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 5.35 | 4.52 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 19 | 19 | 77 | 370 | 74 | 42 | 5 | 100% | 4.1 | 20.0% | 11.4% | 8.6% | 1.4% | 5.35 | 3.66 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 7 | 46 | 215 | 38 | 37 | 2 | 44% | 2.9 | 13.8% | 19.3% | -5.5% | 1.0% | 5.12 | 4.95 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 7 | 46 | 215 | 38 | 37 | 2 | 44% | 2.9 | 17.7% | 17.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 5.12 | 4.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 9 | 0 | 12 | 62 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | — | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | 33 | 0 | 34 | 146 | 27 | 19 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 13.2% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 4.98 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.7% | 13.2% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 4.98 | 4.98 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 46 | 208 | 36 | 32 | 5 | — | — | 17.5% | 15.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 5.44 | 3.69 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 28 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 12.9% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 12.9% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.95 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 12 | 0 | 12 | 52 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 12.9% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.57 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 113 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 12.9% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 4.93 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 67 | 39 | 217 | 996 | 155 | 160 | 18 | 58% | 3.2 | 15.6% | 16.1% | -0.5% | 1.8% | 4.44 | 4.83 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 36 | 200 | 919 | 143 | 148 | 17 | 58% | 3.2 | 15.6% | 16.1% | -0.5% | 1.8% | 4.44 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ike Buxton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 18.7% | 13.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.95 | 19.2% | 6.3% | 34 | -0.03 | — | — | — |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 83 |
| Phil Klein R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.6% | .280 | 3.17 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.66 | 3.17 | 178 | 79 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 78 |
| Joe Record R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.74 | 16.6% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .236 | 3.71 | 21.1% | 8.2% | 172 | -1.03 | 2.59 | 280 | 77 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.3% | .315 | 6.07 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.85 | 4.22 | 149 | 77 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 77 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 76 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 76 |
| Jimmy Joyce R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.56 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 259 | 74 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 74 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 74 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 74 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 73 |
| Noah Bremer R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 2.7% | .292 | 5.88 | 13.1% | 1.2% | 46 | +1.64 | 3.14 | 271 | 73 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 73 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 73 |
| André Rienzo R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 73 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2024 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 72 |
| Luis Niebla R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 72 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.41 | 16.7% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 48 | -0.98 | 2.10 | 224 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 34 | 19.0% | 13.0% | 1.01 | 4.96 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |