Jarrod Cande
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.6
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2027
ERA4.80
FIP4.80
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%10.9%
IP106
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 15 | 80 | 356 | 92 | 22 | 9 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 4.32 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 19 | 19 | 105 | 431 | 109 | 26 | 14 | 19.5% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.25 | 4.48 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 23 | 21 | 106 | 461 | 95 | 46 | 15 | 16.7% | 11.0% | 4.3% | 4.15 | 5.43 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 92 | 43 | 15 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 96 | 44 | 15 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.75 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 463 | 96 | 44 | 15 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.74 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 107 | 453 | 94 | 43 | 15 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.76 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 439 | 90 | 42 | 15 | 20.5% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.81 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 100 | 424 | 86 | 41 | 15 | 20.3% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.84 | 4.88 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 82 | 40 | 14 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 4.97 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 77 | 39 | 14 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.07 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 88 | 369 | 72 | 37 | 14 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 5.11 | 5.18 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 82 | 348 | 66 | 36 | 13 | 19.0% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 5.22 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 67 | 32 | 13 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 5.18 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 55 | 296 | 1264 | 233 | 106 | 49 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 4.02 | 4.74 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 37 | 200 | 855 | 158 | 72 | 33 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 4.02 | 4.74 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jarrod Cande (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.80 | 20.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | — | 4.75 | 20.7% | 11.3% | 326 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 89 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 89 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .262 | 3.93 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -0.85 | 3.50 | 472 | 88 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 87 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 86 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 86 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2023 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 85 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 85 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 84 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 84 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 84 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 84 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 83 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 83 |
| Joe Wieland R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 83 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 83 |
| Caleb Kilian R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.69 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 3.8% | .290 | 3.66 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 57 | -1.03 | 2.39 | 396 | 83 |
| K.C. Hunt R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 223 | 82 |
| Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 82 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $10M | -$0.8M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.