Mike Clevinger

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 36 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MIX2 levels	10	10	38	5.97	5.20	19.8%	8.5%	0.1	K 18.2% · BB 8.1% · FIP 5.15
2025	34	MIX2 levels	30	22	106	4.40	4.61	21.1%	9.6%	1.0	K 18.8% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.31
2026	35	MIX3 levels	22	3	30	4.15	3.07	23.4%	8.6%	—	K 19.7% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.57
2027PROJ	36	MLBPIT	2	2	15	4.50	4.52	19.5%	7.9%	0.2
2028PROJ	37	MLBPIT	18	18	106	4.75	4.92	18.4%	8.6%	0.6
2029PROJ	38	MLBPIT	13	13	76	5.11	5.35	17.2%	9.3%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJarrett Grube (age 35) · Jesse Estrada (age 35) · Yasutomo Kubo (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.50

FIP4.52

K%19.5%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP154

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 154 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	27	26	158	639	145	40	8	96%	5.9	18.4%	6.9%	11.5%	1.8%	2.73	3.40	—
2015	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	27	26	158	639	145	40	8	96%	5.9	22.7%	6.3%	16.4%	1.3%	2.73	2.68	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	27	146	613	147	64	16	79%	4.3	22.1%	10.7%	11.4%	2.6%	3.82	4.02	+2.4
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	27	146	613	147	64	16	79%	4.3	24.0%	10.4%	13.5%	2.6%	3.82	3.83	+2.8
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	28	156	642	175	72	16	82%	4.6	26.5%	11.3%	15.2%	2.4%	3.01	3.64	+3.3
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	28	156	642	175	72	16	82%	4.6	27.3%	11.2%	16.0%	2.5%	3.01	3.58	+3.4
2018	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	32	32	200	810	207	67	21	100%	6.2	25.6%	8.3%	17.3%	2.6%	3.02	3.42	+4.9
2018	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	32	32	200	810	207	67	21	100%	6.2	25.6%	8.3%	17.3%	2.6%	3.02	3.40	+4.9
2019	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	133	529	178	39	11	100%	5.8	33.9%	7.4%	26.5%	2.0%	2.83	2.28	+5.4
2019	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	133	529	178	39	11	100%	5.8	33.6%	7.4%	26.3%	2.1%	2.83	2.38	+5.2
2020	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	8	8	42	162	40	14	6	100%	5.2	24.7%	8.6%	16.0%	3.6%	3.02	4.09	+0.6
2020	29	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	8	8	42	162	40	14	6	100%	5.2	24.7%	8.6%	16.0%	3.7%	3.02	4.06	+0.7
2022	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	123	520	106	37	21	96%	4.7	18.8%	7.2%	11.5%	4.0%	4.17	4.64	+1.1
2022	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	123	520	106	37	21	96%	4.7	20.4%	7.1%	13.3%	4.0%	4.17	4.50	+1.3
2023	32	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	24	24	131	549	110	40	16	100%	5.5	20.0%	7.3%	12.8%	2.9%	3.77	3.90	+2.4
2023	32	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	24	24	131	549	110	40	16	100%	5.5	20.0%	7.3%	12.8%	2.9%	3.77	3.92	+2.3
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	38	177	35	15	8	100%	3.8	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	4.7%	5.97	5.15	+0.1
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	38	177	35	15	8	100%	3.8	18.2%	8.1%	10.1%	4.7%	5.97	5.15	+0.1
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	38	177	35	15	8	100%	3.8	19.8%	8.5%	11.3%	4.5%	5.97	5.20	+0.1
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	22	106	456	96	44	17	73%	3.5	18.8%	7.6%	11.2%	3.3%	4.40	4.31	+1.4
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	22	106	456	96	44	17	73%	3.5	18.8%	7.6%	11.2%	3.3%	4.40	4.31	+1.4
2025	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	22	106	456	96	44	17	73%	3.5	21.1%	9.6%	11.4%	3.7%	4.40	4.61	+1.0
2026	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	3	30	128	30	11	2	14%	1.4	19.7%	7.7%	11.9%	2.1%	4.15	3.57	—
2026	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	3	30	128	30	11	2	14%	1.4	19.7%	7.7%	11.9%	2.1%	4.15	3.57	—
2026	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	3	30	128	30	11	2	14%	1.4	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	1.6%	4.15	3.07	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			164	142	810	3349	822	296	98	87%	4.9	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	2.9%	3.55	3.74	+16.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	PIT	2	2	15	63	12	5	2	100%	7.5	19.5%	7.9%	11.6%	3.1%	4.50	4.52	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	106	445	82	38	15	100%	5.9	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	3.5%	4.75	4.92	+0.6
2029	38	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	76	320	55	30	13	100%	5.8	17.2%	9.3%	8.0%	3.9%	5.11	5.35	+0.0
2028	37	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	106	448	82	38	16	100%	5.9	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	3.5%	4.75	4.92	+0.6
2029	38	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	76	321	55	30	13	100%	5.8	17.2%	9.3%	8.0%	3.9%	5.11	5.35	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		194	172	991	4115	959	364	126	89%	5.1	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	3.1%	3.79	3.93	+17.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	830	194	73	25	89%	5.1	23.3%	8.8%	14.5%	3.1%	3.79	3.93	+3.5
Career	—	MLE		270	228	1263	5225	1200	439	143	84%	4.7	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	2.7%	3.48	3.73	+16.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	36	200	827	190	70	23	84%	4.7	23.0%	8.4%	14.6%	2.7%	3.48	3.73	+3.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 25 IPFIP 3.30 → 3.57 (+0.27)K% 22.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.860	19.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×0.900	7.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.10%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 101 IPFIP 4.52 → 4.31 (−0.21)K% 21.9% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.860	18.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×0.900	7.62%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.320	×1.100	3.33%

Result: FIP 4.52 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 22 IPFIP 4.51 → 4.84 (+0.33)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.20%	—	×0.860	17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.07%	—	×0.900	6.36%
HR / BF /BF	4.04%	÷1.016	×1.100	4.38%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 4.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 7 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.29 (+0.34)K% 35.7% → 31.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.71%	—	×0.880	31.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.050	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.57%	÷1.138	×1.100	3.45%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAColumbus Clippers · 34 IPFIP 3.25 → 3.46 (+0.21)K% 27.1% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.14%	—	×0.880	23.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.050	10.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷1.231	×1.100	1.91%

Result: FIP 3.25 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAColumbus Clippers · 93 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.57 (+0.30)K% 25.5% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.53%	—	×0.880	22.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.21%	—	×1.050	9.67%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷1.113	×1.100	2.08%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAkron RubberDucks · 158 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.40 (+0.74)K% 22.7% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.69%	—	×0.810	18.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.26%	—	×1.100	6.89%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷0.842	×1.200	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 68).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mike Clevinger (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	5.10	17.9%	9.1%	181	+0.58	—	—	—
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	71
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	67
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	66
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	65
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	64
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	64
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	62
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	62
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	60
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	58
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	58
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	57
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	477	55
Jonathan Castellanos R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	35	SP	4.91	8.4%	9.2%	2.5%	.314	5.24	11.0%	2.0%	67	+0.33	3.40	394	54
Angel Castro R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	34	SP	3.51	14.5%	7.4%	1.3%	.332	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	292	54
Francisco Rodriguez R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	36	SP	5.18	10.7%	9.3%	3.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	334	52
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	49
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	45
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	44
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	38

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	114	22.8%	8.8%	1.19	3.89
Rich Hill ('25)	7.1	101	23.9%	9.2%	1.12	4.02
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Pat Zachry ('76-'85, 10 WAR*)	5.9	131	19.1%*	9.8%*	1.10*	4.18*
Greg Harris ('88-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	130	19.7%*	7.9%*	1.40*	4.10*
Roger Moret ('70-'78, 8 WAR*)	3.6	121	19.7%*	10.6%*	1.11*	3.92*