Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 27 | 26 | 158 | 639 | 145 | 40 | 8 | 96% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 6.9% | 11.5% | 2.2% | 2.73 | 3.62 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 27 | 26 | 158 | 639 | 145 | 40 | 8 | 96% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 16.4% | 1.3% | 2.73 | 2.68 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 27 | 146 | 613 | 147 | 64 | 16 | 79% | 4.3 | 22.1% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 2.5% | 3.82 | 3.96 | +2.5 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 27 | 146 | 613 | 147 | 64 | 16 | 79% | 4.3 | 24.0% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 3.82 | 3.83 | +2.7 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 28 | 156 | 642 | 175 | 72 | 16 | 82% | 4.6 | 26.5% | 11.3% | 15.2% | 2.4% | 3.01 | 3.60 | +3.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 28 | 156 | 642 | 175 | 72 | 16 | 82% | 4.6 | 27.3% | 11.2% | 16.0% | 2.5% | 3.01 | 3.58 | +3.3 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 32 | 32 | 200 | 810 | 207 | 67 | 21 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 17.3% | 2.6% | 3.02 | 3.42 | +4.6 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 32 | 32 | 200 | 810 | 207 | 67 | 21 | 100% | 6.2 | 25.6% | 8.3% | 17.3% | 2.6% | 3.02 | 3.40 | +4.7 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 133 | 529 | 178 | 39 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 33.9% | 7.4% | 26.5% | 2.0% | 2.83 | 2.28 | +4.9 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 133 | 529 | 178 | 39 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 33.6% | 7.4% | 26.3% | 2.1% | 2.83 | 2.38 | +4.7 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 8 | 8 | 42 | 162 | 40 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 4.0% | 3.02 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 8 | 8 | 42 | 162 | 40 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.2 | 24.7% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 3.7% | 3.02 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 123 | 520 | 106 | 37 | 21 | 96% | 4.7 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 4.4% | 4.17 | 4.86 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 123 | 520 | 106 | 37 | 21 | 96% | 4.7 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 13.3% | 4.0% | 4.17 | 4.50 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 24 | 24 | 131 | 549 | 110 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.0% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.88 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 24 | 24 | 131 | 549 | 110 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.0% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 3.77 | 3.92 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 38 | 177 | 35 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 3.8 | 18.4% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 4.6% | 5.97 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 10 | 38 | 177 | 35 | 15 | 8 | 100% | 3.8 | 19.8% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 5.97 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 22 | 106 | 456 | 96 | 44 | 17 | 73% | 3.5 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.07 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 22 | 106 | 456 | 96 | 44 | 17 | 73% | 3.5 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 4.40 | 4.61 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 16 | 2 | 21 | 88 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 12% | 1.3 | 19.0% | 11.3% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.22 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | PIT | 61 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 53 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.58 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | PIT | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 85 | 357 | 73 | 32 | 10 | — | — | 20.4% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.63 | +0.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | 19.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.20 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 9 | 9 | 56 | 239 | 44 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | PIT | 8 | 8 | 49 | 208 | 36 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.5% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 5.11 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | PIT | 7 | 7 | 42 | 179 | 29 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.3% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.51 | 5.78 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 44 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | PIT | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 36 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.5% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 5.11 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | PIT | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 29 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.3% | 10.6% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.51 | 5.78 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 195 | 167 | 964 | 4002 | 937 | 360 | 123 | 86% | 4.9 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 3.79 | 3.94 | +16.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 35 | 200 | 830 | 194 | 75 | 26 | 86% | 5.0 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 3.79 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 264 | 227 | 1254 | 5185 | 1194 | 446 | 145 | 86% | 4.8 | 23.0% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 3.47 | 3.78 | +23.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 36 | 200 | 827 | 190 | 71 | 23 | 86% | 4.8 | 23.0% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 3.47 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mike Clevinger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 19.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | — | 5.32 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 148 | +0.74 | — | — | — |
| Jesse Estrada R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 60 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.56 | 10.9% | 6.2% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 143 | 58 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.69 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 248 | 58 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2025 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.97 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.71 | 160 | 57 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2025 · 3.80 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.80 | 12.1% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 284 | 56 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.05 | 13.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 162 | 56 |
| Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.43 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.28 | 426 | 55 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.05 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | .271 | 4.34 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 278 | +0.29 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 55 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 54 |
| Walter Silva R 2029 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 54 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2025 · 5.36 FIP | 34 | SP | 5.36 | 15.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 433 | 54 |
| Alfredo Simon R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 35 | SP- | 5.63 | 12.3% | 9.6% | 4.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 261 | 53 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.48 | 18.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | .254 | 5.90 | 16.3% | 5.1% | 115 | +0.42 | 2.98 | 407 | 53 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 53 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 52 |
| Matt Garza R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 52 |
| Mike Fiers R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.69 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 918 | 52 |
| Homer Bailey R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.49 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .370 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 509 | 52 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 51 |
| Edinson Volquez R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.14 | 20.4% | 12.6% | 2.1% | .271 | 6.14 | 13.3% | -2.7% | 16 | +2.00 | 3.72 | 498 | 50 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 53 | 18.2% | 9.5% | 1.38 | 4.88 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |