Austin Love

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 232 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	A+STL	2	2	9	6.23	1.83	26.3%	7.9%	—	K 26.3% · BB 7.9% · FIP 1.88
2025	26	AASTL	41	0	56	2.41	2.94	27.3%	11.3%	—	K 22.1% · BB 12.4% · FIP 3.58
2026	27	MIX2 levels	48	0	58	6.52	4.48	23.3%	15.8%	—	K 19.5% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.73
2027PROJ	28	MLBSTL	14	0	15	4.81	4.81	22.4%	14.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ29% MLB	29	MLBSTL	30	0	32	4.83	4.88	22.1%	13.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	30	MLBSTL	37	0	39	4.92	5.01	21.7%	13.7%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsEmmanuel Chapman (age 25) · Jose Pina (age 29) · Taylor Cole (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125116vR 108

ERA4.81

FIP4.81

K%22.4%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP146

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 146 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	5	8	27	13	1	1	71%	1.1	48.1%	3.7%	44.4%	3.7%	1.12	1.54	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	5	8	27	13	1	1	71%	1.1	48.1%	3.7%	44.4%	3.7%	1.12	1.85	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	26	25	126	564	151	52	15	96%	4.8	20.6%	10.6%	10.0%	3.0%	5.73	4.34	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	26	25	126	564	151	52	15	96%	4.8	26.8%	9.2%	17.6%	2.7%	5.73	3.49	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	2	2	9	38	10	3	0	100%	4.3	26.3%	7.9%	18.4%	0.0%	6.23	1.88	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	2	2	9	38	10	3	0	100%	4.3	26.3%	7.9%	18.4%	0.0%	6.23	1.83	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	41	0	56	231	63	26	3	0%	1.4	22.1%	12.4%	9.7%	1.4%	2.41	3.58	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	41	0	56	231	63	26	3	0%	1.4	22.1%	12.4%	9.7%	1.4%	2.41	3.58	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	41	0	56	231	63	26	3	0%	1.4	27.3%	11.3%	16.0%	1.3%	2.41	2.94	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	58	279	65	44	6	0%	1.2	19.5%	15.1%	4.5%	2.5%	6.52	4.73	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	58	279	65	44	6	0%	1.2	19.5%	15.1%	4.5%	2.5%	6.52	4.73	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	58	279	65	44	6	0%	1.2	23.3%	15.8%	7.5%	2.2%	6.52	4.48	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	STL	14	0	15	63	14	9	2	0%	1.1	22.4%	14.2%	8.1%	2.6%	4.81	4.81	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	STL	104	0	109	459	101	63	13	0%	1.0	22.1%	13.8%	8.3%	2.8%	4.83	4.88	-0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	STL	86	0	90	380	83	52	11	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.7%	8.1%	3.0%	4.92	5.01	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	STL	30	0	32	135	30	19	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.8%	8.3%	2.8%	4.83	4.88	-0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	STL	37	0	39	165	36	22	5	0%	1.1	21.7%	13.7%	8.1%	3.0%	4.92	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	0	71	300	66	41	9	0%	1.0	21.9%	13.7%	8.2%	2.9%	4.88	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	186	115	25	0%	1.1	21.9%	13.7%	8.2%	2.9%	4.88	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		124	32	256	1139	245	134	28	26%	2.1	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	2.5%	5.06	4.13	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	25	200	889	191	105	22	26%	2.1	21.5%	11.8%	9.7%	2.5%	5.06	4.13	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 33 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.37 (+0.08)K% 21.6% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.64%	—	×0.860	18.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.71%	—	×0.900	16.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.17%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 25 IPFIP 4.35 → 5.31 (+0.96)K% 25.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.93%	—	×0.810	21.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.11%	—	×1.100	12.22%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.44%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.35 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 56 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.58 (+0.64)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.26%	—	×1.100	12.38%
HR / BF /BF	1.30%	÷1.105	×1.200	1.41%

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 9 IPFIP 1.88 → 2.54 (+0.66)K% 26.3% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.770	20.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×1.150	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.093	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 1.88 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Peoria Chiefs · 126 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.34 (+0.87)K% 26.8% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.77%	—	×0.770	20.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.22%	—	×1.150	10.60%
HR / BF /BF	2.66%	÷1.114	×1.250	2.98%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Love (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.94	21.9%	8.2%	199	+0.13	—	—	—
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	71
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	70
Taylor Cole R 2018 · 3.70 FIP	28	SU	3.70	25.4%	10.4%	2.6%	.291	3.49	22.0%	13.9%	72	-0.21	3.49	433	67
Adam Quintana R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	27	SW	4.17	18.6%	11.7%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.72	201	66
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	66
Luis Quiñones R 2024 · 3.69 FIP	27	SU	3.69	21.1%	13.0%	1.3%	.320	5.06	30.7%	6.7%	20	+1.37	3.69	326	65
Jim Brower R 2001 · 4.60 FIP	28	SW	4.60	16.8%	9.8%	3.0%	.260	3.85	16.0%	7.3%	273	-0.75	3.67	571	64
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	64
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	64
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	63
Logan Bawcom R 2017 · 4.06 FIP	28	SU	4.06	18.2%	10.7%	2.1%	.298	5.19	15.0%	6.4%	164	+1.13	3.73	399	63
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	63
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	63
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	62
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.49	22.0%	0.2%	51	+0.40	4.09	130	62
Jared Mortensen R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	28	SU	4.99	20.9%	18.8%	2.3%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	200	62
Todd Wellemeyer R 2007 · 4.74 FIP	28	SW	4.74	17.0%	10.8%	3.1%	.270	4.86	15.5%	6.4%	373	+0.12	3.35	615	62
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	62
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	62
Josh A. Smith R 2016 · 4.68 FIP	28	SW	4.68	18.3%	8.7%	3.7%	.280	3.84	20.9%	14.5%	259	-0.84	2.91	598	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	115	22.1%	13.9%	1.06	4.85
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Les Cain ('68-'72, 2 WAR*)	1.9	93	24.6%*	12.9%*	1.00*	4.66*
Tony Saunders ('99)	1.7	115	19.7%	13.2%	0.86	4.56
Kaz Ishii ('05)	2.8	141	17.4%	14.2%	1.12	4.44
Scipio Spinks ('69-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.0	67	23.7%*	12.2%*	1.04*	4.52*
Floyd Youmans ('85-'89, 6 WAR*)	2.7	108	23.5%*	11.9%*	1.06*	4.23*