Chandler Champlain

Chandler Champlain P Rochester Red Wings

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION124 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%14.0%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%4.9%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 131 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	105	464	116	30	14	92%	4.4	18.6%	7.6%	11.1%	3.8%	5.98	4.56	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	105	464	116	30	14	92%	4.4	25.0%	6.5%	18.5%	3.0%	5.98	3.48	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	135	549	125	43	16	100%	5.4	18.0%	8.8%	9.2%	3.9%	3.33	4.81	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	135	549	125	43	16	100%	5.4	18.0%	8.8%	9.2%	3.9%	3.33	4.81	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	135	549	125	43	16	100%	5.4	22.8%	7.8%	14.9%	2.9%	3.33	3.74	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	140	604	120	53	21	96%	5.0	16.3%	8.1%	8.2%	3.7%	5.07	4.75	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	140	604	120	53	21	96%	5.0	16.3%	8.1%	8.2%	3.7%	5.07	4.75	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	140	604	120	53	21	96%	5.0	19.9%	8.8%	11.1%	3.5%	5.07	4.47	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	29	25	119	565	100	51	20	86%	4.1	14.7%	8.1%	6.6%	3.9%	7.84	5.02	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	29	25	119	565	100	51	20	86%	4.1	14.7%	8.1%	6.6%	3.9%	7.84	5.02	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	29	25	119	565	100	51	20	86%	4.1	17.7%	9.0%	8.7%	3.5%	7.84	4.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	27	19	124	497	88	28	16	70%	4.6	14.7%	5.1%	9.6%	3.5%	3.85	4.44	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	27	19	124	497	88	28	16	70%	4.6	14.7%	5.1%	9.6%	3.5%	3.85	4.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	WSH	27	19	124	497	88	28	16	70%	4.6	17.7%	5.6%	12.1%	3.2%	3.85	4.09	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	WSH	1	1	7	29	4	3	1	100%	6.9	14.0%	9.1%	4.9%	3.5%	5.38	5.38	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	131	526	92	31	17	—	—	17.5%	5.8%	11.7%	3.2%	3.93	4.49	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	89	376	55	34	13	100%	5.9	14.7%	9.1%	5.6%	3.6%	5.32	5.35	-0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	85	359	54	33	13	100%	6.1	15.0%	9.2%	5.8%	3.7%	5.34	5.40	-0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	80	338	57	29	13	100%	6.2	17.0%	8.6%	8.3%	3.8%	5.26	5.25	-0.3
2030	31	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	75	315	59	26	13	100%	6.2	18.7%	8.2%	10.5%	4.0%	5.19	5.16	-0.2
2031	32	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	69	291	53	25	13	100%	5.8	18.2%	8.6%	9.7%	4.3%	5.31	5.38	-0.4
2027	28	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	38	160	24	15	6	100%	6.3	14.7%	9.1%	5.6%	3.6%	5.32	5.35	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	50	211	32	19	8	100%	6.2	15.0%	9.2%	5.8%	3.7%	5.34	5.40	-0.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	WSH	9	9	56	236	40	20	9	100%	6.2	17.0%	8.6%	8.3%	3.8%	5.26	5.25	-0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	58	245	46	20	10	100%	5.8	18.7%	8.2%	10.5%	4.0%	5.19	5.16	-0.2
2031	32	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	58	245	45	21	11	100%	5.8	18.2%	8.6%	9.7%	4.3%	5.31	5.38	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	43	261	1102	186	96	43	100%	6.1	16.9%	8.7%	8.2%	3.9%	5.28	4.92	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	143	74	33	100%	6.0	16.9%	8.7%	8.2%	3.9%	5.28	4.92	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		133	118	624	2679	440	203	100	89%	4.7	16.4%	7.6%	8.8%	3.7%	5.13	4.73	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	38	200	858	141	65	32	89%	4.7	16.4%	7.6%	8.8%	3.7%	5.13	4.73	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chandler Champlain (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	14.0%	9.1%	3.5%	—	5.34	15.5%	6.5%	254	-0.04	—	—	—
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	90
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	86
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	84
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	83
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	83
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	82
Caleb Clay R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	27	SP	4.67	9.9%	6.9%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	111	82
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	82
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	81
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	81
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	80
Baron Stuart R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	24	SP	5.24	14.5%	12.2%	3.3%	.266	4.23	17.6%	4.1%	205	-1.01	3.57	306	80
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	79
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	79
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	78
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	78
Gabriel Arias R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	25	SP	4.42	13.1%	7.2%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	195	78
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	78
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	81	16.1%	8.8%	1.47	5.30
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38