Chandler Champlain
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 82 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142132vR 123
ERA5.46
FIP5.46
K%14.7%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%4.4%
ROS IP82
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 164 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 105 | 464 | 116 | 30 | 14 | 92% | 4.4 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 5.98 | 4.50 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 22 | 105 | 464 | 116 | 30 | 14 | 92% | 4.4 | 25.0% | 6.5% | 18.5% | 3.0% | 5.98 | 3.48 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 135 | 549 | 125 | 43 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.0% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 4.3% | 3.33 | 5.05 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 135 | 549 | 125 | 43 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 3.33 | 3.74 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 140 | 604 | 120 | 53 | 21 | 96% | 5.0 | 16.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 4.75 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 27 | 140 | 604 | 120 | 53 | 21 | 96% | 5.0 | 19.9% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 5.07 | 4.47 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 29 | 25 | 119 | 565 | 100 | 51 | 20 | 86% | 4.1 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 7.84 | 5.11 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 29 | 25 | 119 | 565 | 100 | 51 | 20 | 86% | 4.1 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 7.84 | 4.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 17 | 13 | 82 | 325 | 51 | 16 | 9 | 76% | 4.8 | 13.8% | 5.2% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 4.26 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 82 | 347 | 51 | 36 | 12 | 100% | 6.3 | 14.7% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.46 | 5.46 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 8.0 | 14.7% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.46 | 5.46 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 164 | 672 | 102 | 52 | 21 | — | — | 15.2% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 4.70 | 4.86 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 8 | 35 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 14.7% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.46 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 89 | 376 | 58 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.3% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.39 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 85 | 359 | 56 | 37 | 13 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.6% | 10.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 5.40 | 5.47 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 59 | 32 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 5.32 | 5.31 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 75 | 315 | 61 | 29 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 5.25 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 55 | 28 | 12 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 5.37 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 6 | 6 | 38 | 160 | 25 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.3 | 15.3% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.39 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 33 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.6% | 10.2% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 5.40 | 5.47 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 42 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 5.32 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 47 | 22 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 4.0% | 5.25 | 5.22 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 58 | 245 | 46 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 5.37 | 5.44 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 45 | 45 | 268 | 1134 | 198 | 110 | 44 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 5.34 | 4.99 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 82 | 33 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.4% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 5.34 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 123 | 112 | 583 | 2507 | 420 | 210 | 93 | 91% | 4.7 | 16.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.24 | 4.79 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 38 | 200 | 861 | 144 | 72 | 32 | 91% | 4.7 | 16.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 5.24 | 4.79 | +1.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chandler Champlain (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.46 | 14.7% | 10.3% | 3.5% | — | 5.40 | 16.1% | 6.1% | 254 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 87 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2025 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 82 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 81 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.97 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .315 | 3.67 | 16.6% | 6.9% | 95 | -1.30 | 2.19 | 426 | 80 |
| Caleb Clay R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.63 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 111 | 80 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 79 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 79 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 79 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 79 |
| Ben Anderson R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.94 | 11.6% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .315 | 7.90 | 8.5% | -4.1% | 47 | +2.96 | 3.71 | 361 | 79 |
| David Fletcher R 2029 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 78 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.37 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 195 | 77 |
| Marco Quevedo R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.34 | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.1% | .262 | 4.97 | 11.9% | 6.3% | 135 | +0.63 | 4.34 | 300 | 77 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 240 | 77 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 76 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.43 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.9% | .287 | 3.97 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 277 | -1.46 | 3.23 | 622 | 76 |
| Brett Gillis R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.10 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 4.0% | .231 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 119 | 76 |
| Iván Nova R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.43 | 15.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.19 | 17.3% | 13.1% | 510 | -0.24 | 3.90 | 810 | 75 |
| Alex Williams R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.23 | 17.7% | 10.5% | 4.2% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 322 | 75 |
| Dom Hamel R 2026 · 5.62 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.62 | 15.4% | 12.2% | 4.2% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 514 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 81 | 16.7% | 9.9% | 1.46 | 5.37 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Derek Holland ('21) | 7 | 92 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.59 | 5.12 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Drew Hutchison ('22) | 5 | 69 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 1.39 | 5.16 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |