Chandler Champlain
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA5.15
FIP5.15
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.3%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%7.9%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4040
K†4040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 24 | 22 | 105 | 464 | 116 | 30 | 14 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 5.98 | 4.56 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 25 | 25 | 135 | 549 | 125 | 43 | 16 | 18.0% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 3.33 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 28 | 27 | 140 | 604 | 120 | 53 | 21 | 16.9% | 9.3% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 4.87 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 29 | 25 | 119 | 565 | 100 | 51 | 20 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 7.84 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 2 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.68 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 81 | 52 | 18 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 5.35 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 126 | 535 | 86 | 53 | 19 | 16.2% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 5.37 | 5.08 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 84 | 51 | 18 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 5.26 | 5.27 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 118 | 496 | 84 | 49 | 17 | 16.9% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 5.22 | 5.24 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 114 | 481 | 82 | 48 | 17 | 17.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 5.22 | 5.25 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 78 | 46 | 17 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 5.26 | 5.30 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 106 | 446 | 74 | 45 | 16 | 16.6% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 5.33 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 69 | 44 | 16 | 16.3% | 10.3% | 3.8% | 5.42 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 64 | 43 | 16 | 15.9% | 10.5% | 3.9% | 5.52 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 59 | 41 | 15 | 15.5% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 5.64 | 5.71 | -0.5 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 54 | 39 | 15 | 15.1% | 11.0% | 4.1% | 5.76 | 5.85 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 108 | 99 | 507 | 2210 | 381 | 194 | 83 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 5.45 | 4.82 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 39 | 200 | 872 | 150 | 77 | 33 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 5.45 | 4.82 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chandler Champlain (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.35 | 16.1% | 10.2% | 3.5% | — | 5.25 | 16.8% | 6.9% | 352 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 91 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 89 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 87 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 86 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 86 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 85 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.25 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -1.02 | 3.92 | 272 | 85 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 85 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 85 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 85 |
| Sam Highfill R 2023 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 85 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 84 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 84 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.12 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 328 | 83 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 83 |
| Scott McGregor R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 83 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 83 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 83 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.04 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 3.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 116 | 82 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.