Will Warren — OGILVIE

Will Warren P New York Yankees

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION142 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 94

ERA4.06

FIP3.98

K%23.0%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p2922.3%

p5422.9%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

FB+2.1 (62%)

SI (26%)

CU (5%)

CH (13%)

SL (20%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 1.093 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	129	542	125	42	10	100%	5.0	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.2%	3.91	3.83	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	129	542	125	42	10	100%	5.0	23.1%	7.7%	15.3%	1.8%	3.91	3.15	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	129	551	149	59	15	93%	4.8	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	2.9%	3.35	4.11	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	129	551	149	59	15	93%	4.8	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	2.9%	3.35	4.11	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	129	551	149	59	15	93%	4.8	27.0%	10.7%	16.3%	2.7%	3.35	3.67	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	132	596	165	49	24	97%	4.6	23.8%	7.6%	16.2%	4.1%	6.66	4.32	+0.9
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	132	596	165	49	24	97%	4.6	23.8%	7.6%	16.2%	4.1%	6.66	4.32	+0.9
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	132	596	165	49	24	97%	4.6	27.7%	8.2%	19.5%	4.0%	6.66	4.07	+1.3
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	33	162	711	171	65	22	100%	4.9	24.1%	9.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.44	3.82	+2.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	33	162	711	171	65	22	100%	4.9	24.1%	9.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.44	3.82	+2.1
2025	26	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	33	33	162	711	171	65	22	100%	4.9	24.1%	9.1%	14.9%	3.1%	4.44	3.96	+1.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			68	65	327	1438	341	123	48	96%	4.8	23.7%	8.6%	15.2%	3.3%	4.67	4.05	+3.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	29	27	142	617	141	48	21	93%	4.9	22.9%	7.8%	15.1%	3.2%	4.05	3.91	+1.7
YTD	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	29	27	142	617	141	48	21	93%	4.9	22.9%	7.8%	15.1%	3.2%	4.05	3.91	+1.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	NYY	29	27	142	617	141	48	21	93%	4.9	22.9%	7.8%	15.1%	3.4%	4.05	4.02	+1.5
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	NYY	29	27	142	617	141	48	21	93%	4.9	22.9%	7.8%	15.1%	3.4%	4.05	4.02	+1.5
ROS	27	MLB MLE	NYY	2	2	14	58	13	5	2	100%	6.9	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	3.2%	4.06	3.98	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB CTX	NYY	2	2	14	59	14	5	2	100%	7.0	23.0%	8.2%	14.8%	3.5%	4.18	4.10	+0.2
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	156	675	154	53	23	—	—	22.9%	7.8%	15.0%	3.4%	4.05	3.91	+1.8
FULL	27	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	156	659	154	53	23	—	—	23.4%	8.0%	15.4%	3.5%	4.06	4.05	+1.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYY	27	27	159	672	154	56	23	100%	5.9	22.9%	8.3%	14.5%	3.4%	4.49	4.49	+0.8
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	25	25	152	641	143	55	23	100%	6.1	22.3%	8.6%	13.7%	3.6%	4.59	4.65	+0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	24	24	143	603	130	53	23	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.9%	12.7%	3.8%	4.75	4.86	+0.1
2030	31	MLB MLE	NYY	22	22	133	562	117	52	23	100%	6.1	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	4.0%	4.96	5.09	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYY	25	25	151	638	146	53	23	100%	6.0	22.9%	8.3%	14.5%	3.7%	4.62	4.62	+0.7
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	24	24	144	608	136	52	23	100%	6.0	22.3%	8.6%	13.7%	3.8%	4.72	4.78	+0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	23	23	136	574	124	51	23	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.9%	12.7%	4.0%	4.89	5.00	+0.1
2030	31	MLB CTX	NYY	21	21	127	536	112	49	23	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	4.3%	5.11	5.24	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		164	161	899	3851	871	333	143	98%	5.5	22.6%	8.7%	14.0%	3.7%	4.76	4.32	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	857	194	74	32	98%	5.5	22.6%	8.7%	14.0%	3.7%	4.76	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		144	139	695	3017	676	260	93	97%	4.8	22.4%	8.6%	13.8%	3.1%	4.48	3.99	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	868	195	75	27	97%	4.8	22.4%	8.6%	13.8%	3.1%	4.48	3.99	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Warren (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.43	23.3%	8.9%	3.3%	—	4.66	22.3%	13.7%	454	+0.23	—	—	—
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	78
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	74
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	650	73
Michael Pineda R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	27	SP	3.50	27.4%	6.9%	3.4%	.334	4.02	22.9%	18.2%	242	+0.52	2.00	786	73
Chris Archer R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP	3.78	27.4%	7.9%	3.6%	.294	3.82	27.5%	19.6%	469	+0.04	2.85	1,018	72
Ian Kennedy R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	30	SP	4.22	24.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.293	4.94	21.1%	13.0%	469	+0.72	2.88	864	71
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	71
Chase Anderson R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	17.3%	5.9%	2.8%	.296	4.40	20.5%	12.5%	451	+0.48	3.30	1,146	71
Hiram Burgos R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SP	3.40	19.7%	9.5%	1.4%	.282	4.34	17.2%	8.6%	206	+0.94	3.40	355	71
Andrew Cashner R 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.59	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.95	3.64	786	71
Aaron Wilkerson R 2016 · 3.29 FIP	27	SP	3.29	22.0%	7.0%	2.1%	.302	3.64	20.0%	12.0%	307	+0.35	2.75	902	71
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	70
Lance Lynn R 2015 · 3.31 FIP	28	SP	3.31	22.2%	8.4%	1.9%	.313	4.15	21.2%	11.4%	343	+0.84	2.85	1,390	70
Jeremy Hellickson R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	19.0%	6.3%	3.4%	.285	4.33	17.2%	11.3%	444	+0.16	3.74	646	70
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	70
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	70
Kenta Maeda R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	28	SP	3.24	25.0%	6.1%	2.7%	.275	3.48	27.0%	19.9%	413	+0.24	2.87	1,092	70
Merrill Kelly R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP	4.41	20.3%	6.8%	4.0%	.289	3.83	21.1%	14.8%	390	-0.58	3.60	1,160	70
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	69
Chris Heston R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	27	SP	3.81	18.9%	8.2%	2.3%	.290	5.04	13.4%	3.8%	143	+1.23	3.81	321	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	149	22.3%	8.8%	1.40	4.65
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38