Will Warren
P
New York Yankees
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.8 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 94
ERA4.11
FIP4.03
K%22.8%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%14.4%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 164 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3793.6
Whiff%
p2722.1%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p390.325
FB+2.1 (66%)
SI (27%)
CU (4%)
CH (11%)
SL (19%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 129 | 542 | 125 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 3.91 | 3.80 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 129 | 542 | 125 | 42 | 10 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 15.3% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 3.15 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 129 | 551 | 149 | 59 | 15 | 93% | 4.8 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 3.35 | 4.16 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 25 | 129 | 551 | 149 | 59 | 15 | 93% | 4.8 | 27.0% | 10.7% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 3.35 | 3.67 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 132 | 596 | 165 | 49 | 24 | 97% | 4.6 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 4.0% | 6.66 | 4.27 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 132 | 596 | 165 | 49 | 24 | 97% | 4.6 | 27.7% | 8.2% | 19.5% | 4.0% | 6.66 | 4.07 | +2.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 33 | 33 | 162 | 711 | 171 | 65 | 22 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 3.81 | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 33 | 33 | 162 | 711 | 171 | 65 | 22 | 100% | 4.9 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 4.44 | 3.96 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 19 | 19 | 98 | 429 | 96 | 33 | 14 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 4.03 | 3.98 | +1.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 66 | 277 | 63 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 4.11 | 4.03 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 63 | 23 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.8% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 3.4% | 4.18 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 164 | 706 | 159 | 56 | 23 | — | — | 22.5% | 8.0% | 14.6% | 3.3% | 4.06 | 4.00 | +2.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 164 | 692 | 159 | 56 | 23 | — | — | 23.0% | 8.1% | 14.8% | 3.4% | 4.09 | 4.04 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 27 | 27 | 159 | 672 | 153 | 57 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +1.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 25 | 152 | 641 | 142 | 56 | 22 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 24 | 24 | 143 | 603 | 129 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 3.7% | 4.74 | 4.85 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 25 | 151 | 638 | 145 | 54 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 3.5% | 4.55 | 4.55 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 135 | 53 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 13.4% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.71 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 23 | 136 | 574 | 123 | 52 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.4% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 4.93 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 143 | 142 | 780 | 3347 | 762 | 291 | 117 | 99% | 5.5 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.19 | +11.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 858 | 195 | 75 | 30 | 99% | 5.5 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 4.66 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 134 | 131 | 651 | 2829 | 644 | 258 | 86 | 98% | 4.9 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.00 | +10.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 40 | 200 | 869 | 198 | 79 | 26 | 98% | 4.9 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 4.51 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Warren (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.65 | 22.1% | 13.4% | 454 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 78 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 73 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.49 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.6% | .282 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.93 | 3.49 | 355 | 72 |
| Andrew Cashner R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.77 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.61 | 15.0% | 5.7% | 452 | +0.84 | 3.77 | 786 | 72 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.86 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .296 | 4.60 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.74 | 3.42 | 1,146 | 72 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 71 |
| Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.29 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.56 | 20.0% | 12.0% | 307 | +0.27 | 2.75 | 902 | 71 |
| Jeremy Hellickson R 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.11 | 19.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .285 | 4.39 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 444 | +0.28 | 3.80 | 646 | 70 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2029 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.21 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.67 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 390 | -0.54 | 3.54 | 1,102 | 70 |
| Ian Kennedy R 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.46 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | .293 | 4.91 | 21.1% | 13.0% | 469 | +0.45 | 2.87 | 864 | 70 |
| Chris Heston R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.82 | 18.9% | 8.2% | 2.3% | .290 | 5.05 | 13.4% | 3.8% | 143 | +1.23 | 3.82 | 321 | 70 |
| Kenta Maeda R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.39 | 25.0% | 6.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.66 | 27.0% | 19.9% | 413 | +0.27 | 2.86 | 1,092 | 70 |
| Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.21 | 20.4% | 7.5% | 3.4% | .278 | 5.68 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 139 | +1.47 | 3.17 | 938 | 70 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 70 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.55 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.25 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 171 | +0.70 | 3.55 | 327 | 70 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.39 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .307 | 3.91 | 19.9% | 12.6% | 265 | +0.52 | 2.71 | 598 | 69 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.43 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.9% | .287 | 3.97 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 277 | -1.46 | 3.23 | 622 | 69 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.51 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .280 | 3.83 | 21.8% | 15.9% | 269 | -0.68 | 3.24 | 592 | 69 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.19 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .290 | 4.90 | 16.2% | 5.9% | 316 | +0.71 | 3.95 | 489 | 68 |
| Alec Marsh R 2025 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.91 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 424 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 153 | 22.5% | 8.9% | 1.33 | 4.58 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |