Will Warren
P
New York Yankees
+1.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.4 · 2027
ERA4.69
FIP4.33
xFIP2.72
SIERA2.78
K%24.1%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%15.0%
IP154
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p4023.8%
K%
p9029.5%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
FB+2.1 (67%)
SI (27%)
CU (3%)
CH (7%)
SL (23%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 26 | 26 | 129 | 542 | 125 | 42 | 10 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 3.91 | 3.83 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 27 | 25 | 129 | 551 | 149 | 59 | 15 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 3.35 | 4.19 | +1.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | New York Yankees | 29 | 28 | 132 | 596 | 165 | 49 | 24 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 4.2% | 6.66 | 4.39 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | New York Yankees | 33 | 33 | 162 | 711 | 171 | 65 | 22 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 3.80 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 4 | 4 | 18 | 80 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 25.0% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 2.45 | 3.31 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 23 | 125 | 528 | 125 | 47 | 17 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 3.98 | +1.9 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 143 | 608 | 145 | 53 | 19 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 3.99 | 3.89 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 24 | 24 | 133 | 563 | 133 | 50 | 18 | 23.7% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.38 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 119 | 46 | 17 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 20 | 20 | 109 | 462 | 105 | 42 | 15 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.55 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 92 | 38 | 14 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.65 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 79 | 35 | 13 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 75 | 29 | 12 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.62 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 13 | 13 | 69 | 290 | 64 | 26 | 11 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.76 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 54 | 23 | 10 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 46 | 21 | 9 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 119 | 116 | 571 | 2480 | 568 | 231 | 75 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.02 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 41 | 200 | 869 | 199 | 81 | 26 | 22.9% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.52 | 4.02 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Warren (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.3% | — | 4.46 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 364 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Nate Long R 2028 · 4.69 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.69 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 151 | 76 |
| Juan Carlos Sulbaran R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.69 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.69 | 278 | 75 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.27 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .287 | 4.12 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 277 | -1.15 | 3.50 | 622 | 75 |
| Jhoulys Chacín R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.85 | 15.2% | 8.8% | 1.7% | .278 | 3.79 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 517 | -0.06 | 3.68 | 887 | 75 |
| Jimmy Nelson R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.62 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 3.0% | .289 | 3.17 | 27.2% | 18.6% | 238 | -1.45 | 1.32 | 650 | 75 |
| Chase Anderson R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.07 | 17.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | .296 | 4.40 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 451 | +0.33 | 3.30 | 1,146 | 75 |
| Chris Tillman R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.14 | 16.2% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.94 | 16.2% | 5.9% | 316 | +0.80 | 4.04 | 489 | 75 |
| Tom Koehler R 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.43 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.9% | .279 | 4.50 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 287 | +0.07 | 4.37 | 474 | 74 |
| Mario Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.36 | 12.6% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.12 | 16.2% | 10.8% | 233 | -0.24 | 3.93 | 368 | 74 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.42 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.4% | .282 | 4.34 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 206 | +0.92 | 3.42 | 355 | 74 |
| Greg Peavey R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.37 | 11.2% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 147 | 74 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 3.36 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.94 | 533 | 74 |
| Tyler Chatwood R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.53 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 5.2% | 199 | +0.03 | 3.32 | 537 | 73 |
| Manuel Flores R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.00 | 13.8% | 7.1% | 2.1% | .317 | 3.58 | 14.4% | 9.2% | 263 | -0.42 | 3.48 | 515 | 73 |
| Chi Chi González R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.92 | 16.7% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .302 | 4.54 | 15.3% | 7.8% | 225 | -0.38 | 4.02 | 800 | 73 |
| Brandon Sinnery R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.75 | 11.0% | 6.9% | 3.1% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 154 | 73 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.64 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 1.3% | .286 | 4.84 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 249 | +1.20 | 3.64 | 605 | 72 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.79 | 14.6% | 9.8% | 1.2% | .277 | 4.94 | 14.9% | 5.0% | 55 | +1.15 | 3.79 | 254 | 72 |
| Yovani Gallardo R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.91 | 15.3% | 8.6% | 1.8% | .302 | 4.74 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 393 | +0.83 | 3.91 | 577 | 72 |
| Thad Weber R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.64 | 13.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | .293 | 4.59 | 11.2% | 5.7% | 202 | -0.05 | 4.36 | 363 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.093 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.3 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.4 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.2 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $3M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.6M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $4M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $10M | $39M | +$29M | ||