Will Warren

P New York Yankees

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.7 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	29	28	132	6.66	4.07	27.7%	8.2%	2.1	K 24.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.26
2025	26	MLBNYY	33	33	162	4.44	3.96	24.1%	9.1%	2.8
2026	27	MLBNYY	32	29	156	3.92	3.84	23.3%	7.8%	2.9
2027PROJ	28	MLBNYY	20	20	122	4.34	4.25	23.3%	8.3%	1.7
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBNYY	16	16	95	4.50	4.53	22.7%	8.5%	1.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBNYY	13	13	78	4.65	4.75	22.0%	8.8%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.093First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$2M2029Arb-2$3M2030Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%56

xwOBA vs43

FB Velo38

Form1.86 ERA (proj 4.34) · K 27.1% (proj 23.3%) · BB 7.6% (proj 8.3%) ▲ last 60d · 29 IP through Oct 27

CompsChase Anderson (age 28) · Brad Peacock (age 28) · Zack Godley (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.34

FIP4.25

K%23.3%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%15.0%

Proj IP122

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$22M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.093 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$14M	+$13M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$8M	+$6M
2029	Arb-2	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.1M
2030	Arb-3	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$25M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	129	542	125	42	10	100%	5.0	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.2%	3.91	3.83	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	129	542	125	42	10	100%	5.0	23.1%	7.7%	15.3%	1.8%	3.91	3.15	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	129	551	149	59	15	93%	4.8	22.9%	10.1%	12.8%	2.9%	3.35	4.06	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	129	551	149	59	15	93%	4.8	27.0%	10.7%	16.3%	2.7%	3.35	3.67	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	132	596	165	49	24	97%	4.6	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	4.1%	6.66	4.26	+1.8
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	132	596	165	49	24	97%	4.6	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	4.1%	6.66	4.26	+1.8
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	132	596	165	49	24	97%	4.6	27.7%	8.2%	19.5%	4.0%	6.66	4.07	+2.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	33	162	711	171	65	22	100%	4.9	24.1%	9.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.44	3.82	+3.1
2025	26	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	33	33	162	711	171	65	22	100%	4.9	24.1%	9.1%	14.9%	2.9%	4.44	3.82	+3.1
2025	26	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	33	33	162	711	171	65	22	100%	4.9	24.1%	9.1%	14.9%	3.1%	4.44	3.96	+2.8
2026	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	32	29	156	677	158	53	21	91%	4.9	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	2.9%	3.92	3.72	+3.2
2026	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	32	29	156	677	158	53	21	91%	4.9	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	2.9%	3.92	3.72	+3.2
2026	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	32	29	156	677	158	53	21	91%	4.9	23.3%	7.8%	15.5%	3.1%	3.92	3.84	+2.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	67	341	1498	358	128	48	94%	4.8	23.9%	8.5%	15.4%	3.2%	4.59	3.96	+5.9
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	NYY	20	20	122	515	120	43	16	100%	6.1	23.3%	8.3%	15.0%	3.1%	4.34	4.25	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYY	17	17	100	423	96	36	14	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.5%	14.1%	3.2%	4.38	4.41	+1.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYY	14	14	83	349	77	31	12	100%	5.9	22.0%	8.8%	13.1%	3.4%	4.52	4.62	+0.7
2030	31	MLB MLE	NYY	11	11	67	283	60	26	10	100%	6.1	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	3.6%	4.72	4.85	+0.4
2031	32	MLB MLE	NYY	9	9	51	217	44	21	8	100%	5.7	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	3.9%	4.95	5.10	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYY	16	16	95	401	91	34	14	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.5%	14.1%	3.4%	4.50	4.53	+1.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYY	13	13	78	329	72	29	12	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.8%	13.1%	3.6%	4.65	4.75	+0.7
2030	31	MLB CTX	NYY	11	11	64	270	57	25	10	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.2%	12.0%	3.9%	4.85	4.98	+0.4
2031	32	MLB CTX	NYY	8	8	49	207	42	20	9	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	4.1%	5.09	5.24	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	115	627	2706	621	236	93	97%	5.3	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	3.4%	4.65	4.15	+9.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	37	200	863	198	75	30	97%	5.3	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	3.4%	4.65	4.15	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		147	141	709	3077	701	265	93	96%	4.8	22.8%	8.6%	14.2%	3.0%	4.44	3.93	+8.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	40	200	868	198	75	26	96%	4.8	22.8%	8.6%	14.2%	3.0%	4.44	3.93	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 110 IPFIP 3.90 → 4.24 (+0.34)K% 28.0% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.98%	—	×0.860	24.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.02%	—	×0.900	7.22%
HR / BF /BF	3.91%	÷1.045	×1.100	4.12%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 3.90 → 4.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 100 IPFIP 4.24 → 4.56 (+0.32)K% 25.6% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.58%	—	×0.860	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.93%	—	×0.900	9.84%
HR / BF /BF	3.49%	÷1.017	×1.100	3.77%

Result: FIP 4.24 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASomerset Patriots · 29 IPFIP 1.63 → 2.28 (+0.64)K% 32.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.23%	—	×0.810	26.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.92%	—	×1.100	10.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.033	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 1.63 → 2.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASomerset Patriots · 94 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.10 (+0.61)K% 20.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.65%	—	×0.810	16.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.21%	—	×1.100	9.03%
HR / BF /BF	1.99%	÷1.032	×1.200	2.31%

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 35 IPFIP 2.17 → 3.05 (+0.89)K% 30.0% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.770	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.43%	—	×1.150	7.39%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.014	×1.250	1.76%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.17 → 3.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Warren (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.60	22.0%	13.2%	250	+0.35	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	79
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	73
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	71
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	69
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	1,134	69
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	68
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	68
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	68
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	67
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	66
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	66
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	65
Chris Young R 2007 · 3.17 FIP	28	SP	3.17	23.7%	10.2%	1.4%	.237	4.56	18.6%	7.8%	198	+1.39	3.17	1,298	64
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	64
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	63
Jacob deGrom R 2016 · 3.22 FIP	28	SP	3.22	23.7%	6.0%	2.5%	.310	2.46	31.0%	25.4%	622	-0.76	0.74	1,692	63
Andrew Cashner R 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	20.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.326	4.59	15.0%	5.7%	452	+0.95	2.94	1,185	63
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	63
Jason Johnson R 2002 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.3%	7.0%	3.4%	.300	4.27	12.9%	6.3%	596	-0.11	4.12	1,351	62
Jeremy Hellickson R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	28	SP	4.17	19.0%	6.3%	3.4%	.285	4.33	17.2%	11.3%	444	+0.16	3.63	1,286	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	95	23.0%	8.7%	1.27	4.55
Mike Paul ('68-'74, 2 WAR*)	3.1	105	22.4%*	8.7%*	1.22*	4.77*
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
John Henry Johnson ('78-'87, 6 WAR*)	3.0	75	24.6%*	9.6%*	1.15*	4.15*