Dan Straily — OGILVIE

Dan Straily P Iowa Cubs

Age 37 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 153145vR 137

ERA4.93

FIP4.97

K%19.6%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.2

Whiff%

p1018.3%

p1014.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.452

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	139	618	138	33	15	96%	5.4	19.9%	5.5%	14.4%	2.5%	4.84	3.50	+2.4
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	139	618	138	33	15	96%	5.4	22.3%	5.3%	17.0%	2.4%	4.84	3.23	+2.9
2016	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	34	31	191	792	162	69	31	91%	5.6	20.5%	8.7%	11.7%	3.6%	3.76	4.47	+1.0
2016	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	34	31	191	792	162	69	31	91%	5.6	20.5%	8.7%	11.7%	3.9%	3.76	4.59	+0.7
2017	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	33	33	182	769	170	56	31	100%	5.5	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	4.2%	4.26	4.48	+0.9
2017	28	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	33	33	182	769	170	56	31	100%	5.5	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	4.0%	4.26	4.37	+1.1
2018	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	135	581	111	51	24	100%	5.2	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	4.1%	4.39	4.87	+0.1
2018	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	135	581	111	51	24	100%	5.2	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	4.1%	4.39	4.90	+0.0
2019	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	115	511	101	38	31	77%	4.4	18.2%	7.6%	10.6%	6.1%	6.28	5.89	-1.3
2019	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	115	511	101	38	31	77%	4.4	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	6.1%	6.28	5.85	-1.2
2022	33	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	15	12	62	279	53	30	14	80%	4.2	16.7%	11.3%	5.4%	5.7%	6.35	6.26	—
2022	33	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	15	12	62	279	53	30	14	80%	4.2	19.0%	10.8%	8.2%	5.0%	6.35	5.76	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	17	16	79	351	75	37	18	94%	4.6	17.7%	9.5%	8.2%	5.2%	5.49	5.67	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	17	16	79	351	75	37	18	94%	4.6	17.7%	9.5%	8.2%	5.2%	5.49	5.67	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	17	16	79	351	75	37	18	94%	4.6	21.4%	10.5%	10.8%	5.1%	5.49	5.58	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			108	98	560	2391	478	202	106	91%	5.2	20.0%	8.4%	11.5%	4.4%	4.57	4.94	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	CHC	1	1	4	17	3	2	1	100%	4.0	19.6%	9.3%	10.3%	3.6%	4.93	4.97	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	CHC	8	8	47	198	37	20	8	100%	5.9	18.5%	10.0%	8.5%	4.0%	5.21	5.40	-0.3
2028	39	MLB MLE	CHC	7	7	40	171	30	18	8	100%	5.8	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	4.5%	5.58	5.83	-0.4
2027	38	MLB CTX	CHC	8	8	47	198	37	20	8	100%	5.9	18.5%	10.0%	8.5%	3.9%	5.13	5.32	-0.3
2028	39	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	40	169	29	18	7	100%	5.7	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	4.3%	5.49	5.74	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	113	647	2760	544	240	121	92%	5.3	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	4.4%	4.67	4.94	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	35	200	853	168	74	37	92%	5.3	19.7%	8.7%	11.0%	4.4%	4.67	4.94	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		177	163	903	3901	768	316	166	92%	5.1	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	4.3%	4.77	4.80	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	36	200	864	170	70	37	92%	5.1	19.7%	8.1%	11.6%	4.3%	4.77	4.80	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dan Straily (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	19.6%	9.3%	3.6%	—	5.60	18.0%	7.6%	87	+0.63	—	—	—
Aaron Harang R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	37	SP	4.47	14.4%	6.4%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	172	81
Tim Hudson R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	40	SP	4.41	12.2%	6.9%	2.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	124	79
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	78
Ryan Vogelsong R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	38	SP-	4.45	18.1%	9.4%	3.1%	.295	4.79	16.7%	6.3%	82	+0.34	4.45	217	76
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	240	76
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	428	74
Roberto Hernandez R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP	4.38	13.8%	7.0%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	171	72
J.D. Martin R 2019 · 5.89 FIP	36	SP	5.89	13.9%	12.8%	4.3%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	289	71
Edgar Gonzalez R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	36	SP	4.58	12.3%	5.8%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	450	70
Dan Haren R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	34	SP	4.54	17.2%	4.7%	4.2%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	187	69
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	68
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	68
Chris Smith R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	36	SP-	5.08	15.6%	7.5%	4.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	413	68
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	67
Guillermo Moscoso R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP	4.35	12.6%	6.7%	2.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	264	65
Francisco Rodriguez R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	36	SP	5.18	10.7%	9.3%	3.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	273	63
Jake Peavy R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	35	SP-	4.35	19.6%	6.7%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	262	62
R.A. Dickey R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	40	SP	4.31	14.3%	6.8%	2.8%	.253	4.63	17.0%	8.7%	360	+0.32	4.31	574	61
Colby Lewis R 2016 · 4.67 FIP	36	SP	4.67	15.5%	5.9%	3.9%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	321	60
Jeremy Guthrie R 2016 · 4.85 FIP	37	SP	4.85	11.6%	8.6%	3.0%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	4.85	235	59

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	18.6%	10.0%	1.54	5.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63