Dan Straily
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 37
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 160151vR 142
ERA4.93
FIP4.98
K%20.1%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%10.0%
ROS IP59
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1090.2
Whiff%
p1018.3%
K%
p1014.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.452
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 139 | 618 | 138 | 33 | 15 | 96% | 5.4 | 19.9% | 5.5% | 14.4% | 2.4% | 4.84 | 3.42 | +3.2 |
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 139 | 618 | 138 | 33 | 15 | 96% | 5.4 | 22.3% | 5.3% | 17.0% | 2.4% | 4.84 | 3.23 | +3.5 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 34 | 31 | 191 | 792 | 162 | 69 | 31 | 91% | 5.6 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 3.76 | 4.51 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 34 | 31 | 191 | 792 | 162 | 69 | 31 | 91% | 5.6 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 3.76 | 4.59 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 33 | 33 | 182 | 769 | 170 | 56 | 31 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.1% | 7.3% | 14.8% | 4.3% | 4.26 | 4.50 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 33 | 33 | 182 | 769 | 170 | 56 | 31 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.1% | 7.3% | 14.8% | 4.0% | 4.26 | 4.37 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 135 | 581 | 111 | 51 | 24 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.1% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 4.39 | 4.88 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 135 | 581 | 111 | 51 | 24 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.1% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 4.1% | 4.39 | 4.90 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 20 | 115 | 511 | 101 | 38 | 31 | 77% | 4.4 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 6.28 | 6.18 | -1.0 |
| 2019 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 20 | 115 | 511 | 101 | 38 | 31 | 77% | 4.4 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 6.1% | 6.28 | 5.85 | -0.6 |
| 2022 | 33 | AAA | Reno Aces | 15 | 12 | 62 | 279 | 53 | 30 | 14 | 80% | 4.2 | 16.7% | 11.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.35 | 6.38 | — |
| 2022 | 33 | AAA | Reno Aces | 15 | 12 | 62 | 279 | 53 | 30 | 14 | 80% | 4.2 | 19.0% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 6.35 | 5.76 | — |
| 2024 | 35 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 17 | 16 | 79 | 351 | 75 | 37 | 18 | 94% | 4.6 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.49 | 5.59 | — |
| 2024 | 35 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 17 | 16 | 79 | 351 | 75 | 37 | 18 | 94% | 4.6 | 21.4% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 5.1% | 5.49 | 5.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | CHC | 9 | 9 | 55 | 231 | 46 | 23 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.93 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 38 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 5.22 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 40 | 171 | 30 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.8% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.59 | 5.84 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 6 | 35 | 147 | 24 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.00 | 6.27 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | CHC | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 38 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.9% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 5.25 | 5.44 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 30 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.8% | 11.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.62 | 5.87 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 40 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.03 | 6.30 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 128 | 118 | 682 | 2907 | 570 | 261 | 129 | 92% | 5.3 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 4.4% | 4.75 | 5.01 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 35 | 200 | 853 | 167 | 77 | 38 | 92% | 5.3 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 4.4% | 4.75 | 5.01 | +0.9 | ||
| Career | — | 177 | 163 | 903 | 3901 | 772 | 321 | 168 | 92% | 5.1 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 4.3% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 36 | 200 | 864 | 171 | 71 | 37 | 92% | 5.1 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 4.3% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dan Straily (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 3.5% | — | 5.80 | 17.9% | 6.5% | 122 | +0.82 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Harang R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 78 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 76 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 76 |
| Tim Hudson R 2029 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 76 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 75 |
| J.D. Martin R 2025 · 5.98 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.98 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 289 | 71 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 71 |
| James Shields R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.81 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 3.8% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 720 | 69 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2026 · 5.90 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.90 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 407 | 67 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.58 | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 450 | 67 |
| Chris Smith R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.11 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 413 | 66 |
| Dan Haren R 2023 · 4.40 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.40 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 187 | 66 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 38 | SP | 4.41 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.33 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.08 | 3.92 | 375 | 66 |
| Colby Lewis R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.70 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 64 |
| Jake Peavy R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 63 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2024 · 4.19 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.19 | 12.6% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 264 | 62 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.11 | 10.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 273 | 62 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.23 | 13.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 241 | 61 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 61 |
| R.A. Dickey R 2029 · 4.31 FIP | 40 | SP | 4.31 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .253 | 4.63 | 17.0% | 8.7% | 360 | +0.32 | 4.31 | 574 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 44 | 18.6% | 11.0% | 1.58 | 5.37 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |