Dan Straily

P Iowa Cubs

Age 38 RHP 6'2" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2019	30	MIX2 levels	26	20	115	6.28	5.85	19.8%	7.4%	-0.6	K 18.2% · BB 7.6% · FIP 5.89
2022	33	AAAARI	15	12	62	6.35	5.76	19.0%	10.8%	—	K 16.7% · BB 11.3% · FIP 6.26
2024	35	AAACHC	17	16	79	5.49	5.58	21.4%	10.5%	—	K 18.4% · BB 9.5% · FIP 5.62
2025	36	No MLB games played
2026	37	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	38	MLBCHC	1	1	5	4.60	4.66	21.0%	9.3%	0.0
2028PROJ	39	MLBCHC	6	6	35	4.82	5.01	19.9%	10.0%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.6 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019

FB Velo10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsYasutomo Kubo (age 38) · Jose Oyervides (age 37) · Walter Silva (age 38)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA4.60

FIP4.66

K%21.0%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.2

Whiff%

p1018.3%

p1014.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.452

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2012	23	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	7	7	39	172	32	15	11	100%	5.6	18.6%	8.7%	9.9%	7.0%	3.89	6.49	-0.5
2012	23	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	7	7	39	172	32	15	11	100%	5.6	18.6%	8.7%	9.9%	6.4%	3.89	6.25	-0.4
2013	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	27	27	152	640	124	57	16	100%	5.6	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	2.7%	3.96	4.10	+2.3
2013	24	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	27	27	152	640	124	57	16	100%	5.6	19.4%	8.9%	10.5%	2.5%	3.96	3.96	+2.6
2014	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	14	8	52	231	47	23	10	57%	3.7	20.3%	10.0%	10.4%	4.5%	6.75	5.11	+0.2
2014	25	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	14	8	52	231	47	23	10	57%	3.7	20.3%	10.0%	10.4%	4.3%	6.75	5.12	+0.2
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	139	618	138	33	15	96%	5.4	19.9%	5.5%	14.4%	2.5%	4.84	3.50	+3.2
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	139	618	138	33	15	96%	5.4	22.3%	5.3%	17.0%	2.4%	4.84	3.23	+3.7
2016	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	34	31	191	792	162	69	31	91%	5.6	20.5%	8.7%	11.7%	3.6%	3.76	4.47	+2.1
2016	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	34	31	191	792	162	69	31	91%	5.6	20.5%	8.7%	11.7%	3.9%	3.76	4.59	+1.8
2017	28	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	33	33	182	769	170	56	31	100%	5.5	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	4.2%	4.26	4.48	+1.9
2017	28	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	33	33	182	769	170	56	31	100%	5.5	22.1%	7.3%	14.8%	4.0%	4.26	4.37	+2.2
2018	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	135	581	111	51	24	100%	5.2	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	4.1%	4.39	4.87	+0.8
2018	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	135	581	111	51	24	100%	5.2	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	4.1%	4.39	4.90	+0.8
2019	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	20	115	511	101	38	31	77%	4.4	18.2%	7.6%	10.6%	6.1%	6.28	5.89	-0.6
2019	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	20	115	511	101	38	31	77%	4.4	19.8%	7.4%	12.3%	6.1%	6.28	5.85	-0.6
2022	33	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	15	12	62	279	53	30	14	80%	4.2	16.7%	11.3%	5.4%	5.7%	6.35	6.26	—
2022	33	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	15	12	62	279	53	30	14	80%	4.2	19.0%	10.8%	8.2%	5.0%	6.35	5.76	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	17	16	79	351	75	37	18	94%	4.6	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	5.2%	5.49	5.62	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	17	16	79	351	75	37	18	94%	4.6	18.4%	9.5%	8.9%	5.2%	5.49	5.62	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Iowa Cubs	17	16	79	351	75	37	18	94%	4.6	21.4%	10.5%	10.8%	5.1%	5.49	5.58	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			156	140	803	3434	681	297	143	90%	5.1	19.8%	8.6%	11.2%	4.2%	4.56	4.83	+5.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	CHC	1	1	5	21	4	2	1	100%	5.0	21.0%	9.3%	11.8%	3.2%	4.60	4.66	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	CHC	6	6	35	147	29	15	5	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	3.7%	4.90	5.09	+0.1
2028	39	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	35	148	29	15	5	100%	5.8	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	3.6%	4.82	5.01	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		162	146	838	3581	710	312	148	90%	5.2	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	4.1%	4.57	4.80	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	855	169	74	35	90%	5.2	19.8%	8.7%	11.1%	4.1%	4.57	4.80	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		225	205	1147	4944	973	411	206	91%	5.1	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	4.2%	4.72	4.78	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	36	200	862	170	72	36	91%	5.1	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	4.2%	4.72	4.78	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 79 IPFIP 5.45 → 5.62 (+0.17)K% 21.4% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.37%	—	×0.860	18.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.54%	—	×0.900	9.49%
HR / BF /BF	5.13%	÷1.079	×1.100	5.23%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 5.45 → 5.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAReno Aces · 62 IPFIP 5.61 → 6.26 (+0.65)K% 19.0% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.00%	—	×0.880	16.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.75%	—	×1.050	11.29%
HR / BF /BF	5.02%	÷0.965	×1.100	5.72%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 5.61 → 6.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 67 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.32 (+0.77)K% 24.7% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.73%	—	×0.880	21.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.82%	—	×1.050	6.11%
HR / BF /BF	3.27%	÷0.866	×1.100	4.16%

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 8 IPFIP 5.59 → 7.36 (+1.77)K% 15.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.38%	—	×0.770	11.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.150	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	5.13%	÷0.850	×1.250	7.54%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 5.59 → 7.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 5 IPFIP 6.09 → 7.24 (+1.15)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×1.100	4.58%
HR / BF /BF	8.33%	÷1.041	×1.200	9.60%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 6.09 → 7.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAFresno Grizzlies · 123 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.38 (+0.31)K% 22.9% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.88%	—	×0.880	20.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.61%	—	×1.050	4.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.40%	÷1.060	×1.100	2.49%

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dan Straily (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.2%	—	5.09	19.9%	9.9%	35	+0.43	—	—	—
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	70
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	65
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	64
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	59
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	51
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	46
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	36
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	33
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	33
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	32
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	38	SP	3.48	12.8%	1.1%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	259	32
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	31
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	29
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	19

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	99	19.9%	9.1%	1.58	4.58
Paul Moskau ('77-'83, 3 WAR*)	3.2	91	19.8%*	8.9%*	1.50*	4.84*
Chase Anderson ('24)	5.5	101	19.7%	8.1%	1.48	4.41
Claudio Vargas ('10)	3.8	109	16.2%	8.7%	1.49	4.83
Vince Velasquez ('15-'23, 2 WAR*)	3.8	85	21.9%*	9.2%*	1.37*	4.99*
Don Carman ('83-'92, 3 WAR*)	4.6	132	19.4%*	9.5%*	1.60*	4.60*
Jerry Garvin ('77-'82, 4 WAR*)	3.0	101	19.3%*	8.4%*	1.44*	4.52*